58 replies to this topic

[Time_Traveller]

General Election 2015: Poll suggests political figures could lose seats to SNP

 

4 February 2015

 

A new poll by a Tory peer has suggested Labour's Douglas Alexander and Lib Dem minister Danny Alexander could lose their Westminster seats to the SNP.

Lord Ashcroft looked at 16 Scottish constituencies and indicated the SNP was ahead in 15 of them.

The research comes as other polls suggest the nationalists are on course to win more UK parliamentary seats.

Currently Labour has 41 MPs, the Lib Dems have 11, the SNP has six and the Tories have one.

This latest survey took place between 5 and 30 January and involved telephoning 16,007 adults - the majority of whom live in areas where more voters said "Yes" in the Scottish independence referendum than said "No".

It suggested that of the seven Glasgow seats held by Labour, six could be lost to the SNP.

It also polled in the Inverness and Gordon areas where the majority opinion in the referendum was "No".

One thousand adults were surveyed in the Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey constituency of Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander.

They were asked a series of questions including: "If there was a general election for the Westminster parliament tomorrow, which party would you vote for?"

Ten percent of respondents said they would vote Lib Dem, with 38% saying they would back the SNP.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-31126686

 

It sounds like Scotland wants a new Government so most of them will vote for the SNP.

 

[Ewan]

We will see a Labour / SNP coalition. I can't see it going any other way. The Conservatives won't get enough seats for a majority, neither on their own or with the Lib Dems & SNP won't work with the Conservatives. If Labour / SNP don't get enough seats they might have to work with the Lib Dems as well. Greens / UKIP won't matter much & will get very few seats because of FPTP. 

[future-me]

Also some of the Northern Irish parties said they would join a coalition with Labour / SNP along-side Plaid Cymru (if necessary). 

[Mike the average]

SNP sound like a decent party, but you guys are making your election sound like test match cricket.

 

come on, what of the enemy UKIP?

[Time_Traveller]

Sounds interesting which way it would go.

[Godstone]

I live in one of the two Scottish constituencies where in 2010 the Tory candidate didn't even get enough votes to get their deposit back - this detail makes me very happy indeed.  On the other hand, it means there's no point in me campaigning against the Tories here because I'd be preaching to the converted.

[Time_Traveller]

Anything to do with the British Elections, Put in here: - 

 

Election 2015: Poll tracker

 

The poll tracker measures opinion poll support for the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Green Party and UKIP ahead of the 2015 general election.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...cs/poll-tracker

 

This is the current poll ratings.

[Lunix688]

Is UKIP really that  big? 

That's scary. 

[DanielofFutureLondon]

Is UKIP really that  big? 
That's scary.

As a NATO citizen and native Brit on here, I can confirm this is indeed the case but their significance has been greatly exaggerated.


Because of the First-Past-the-Post system used to elect MP's in this country in both the general and local elections (Euro elections are slightly different due to MEPs being selected from drawn-up party shortlists), it is incredibly difficult for fourth parties like UKIP and the Greens to win seats in Parliament and the House of Commons. They are leading in the opinion polls in several seats such as South Thanet, Skegness and Boston in Northern England, but the FPTP system means this doesn't necessarily translate into seats and even polling organisations like Ashcroft and YouGov, their analysis and a best-case scenario for UKIP involves them winning only 5-7 seats in parliament and the Greens only have 1 MP and will likely gain virtually no seats this election.

Yes we are pretty weird and Undemocratic on that front, wish we had PR but of course we won't because this is Britain and we don't do change easily.......

So to summarise, there is VERY little chance of Prime Minister Farage or UKIP running the country any time soon, their voting base is very old, white and tends to be localised on the East Coast and Southern England.

So yes it's a pretty ASB scenario to have a UKIP coalition with the Conservatives, although the polls do predict a hung parliament and a likely Labour-Lib Dem coalition or new a new Con-Dem one. Yes, things are very interesting like that in British politics

[Ewan]

 

So yes it's a pretty ASB scenario to have a UKIP coalition with the Conservatives, although the polls do predict a hung parliament and a likely Labour-Lib Dem coalition or new a new Con-Dem one. Yes, things are very interesting like that in British politics

 

 

SNP will be the major party in any Labour coalition, they're looking to get the 3rd largest number of seats by quite a large margin. Will be a good change for Britain I think. We need more progressive taxes & spending, not gutting of the welfare state & privatisation. 

 

There are a lot of Labour / Conservative marginals though so nothing is set in stone. The SNP seats seem pretty safe at least going by that so the big questions are the Lab/Con marginal seats. I don't think UKIP is going to make a huge difference, looking at those stats they aren't close in many areas. If the Conservatives get a lot of those marginals they could form a coalition with UKIP & the liberals perhaps, but current trends suggest labour winning out as SNP won't work with the Conservatives. 

 

If given the choice do you think the Lib Dems would rather work with Labour or the Conservatives? If the former then the Conservatives are dead in the water for sure. 

 

Few links:

 

Voting stats for 2010 by age

Political compass

Polling breakdowns

Vote for policies - updated for 2015

[Godstone]

I live in one of the only constituencies where the Tory candidate in the 2010 General Election did so badly that their deposit wasn't returned. 

Obviously the money doesn't matter (a drop in the ocean of party funds), it's the candidate's humiliation of doing so badly for such a major party, that's what makes me smile.

 

Five years ago I was living in a constituency that was Labour since before the Labour Party existed. 

 

In the distant past I lived where the Tories regularly held their annual party conferences.

 

So I've seen several sides over the years.  This time though, if the Tories win then we're all in deep doo-doo.  Vote Green

[superexistence]

Like there's a difference between the two parties.

just different cheeks of the same arse.

[future-me]

It would be interesting if Conservatives win, but with a minority, opening the possibility of 2nd place Labour forming a progressive coaltion with SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green, and some Northern Irish MP's. 

 

As has been said lots recently, if people voted on policies then Green would get significant numbers of seats. But this is Britain, so most people will vote blue or red - simple because that is what they have always done, and their parents did etc.

[Time_Traveller]

TV election debates will 'go ahead' say broadcasters

 

6 March 2015

 

Broadcasters have said plans for three TV debates before the general election will go ahead, despite David Cameron saying he will only take part in one.

The BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Sky News said they would forge ahead with plans for three debates in April.

Two of these are scheduled to include seven party leaders with a head-to-head between David Cameron and Ed Miliband.

The broadcasters have urged Mr Cameron to reconsider his decision only to appear in one seven-way encounter.

In response, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg urged David Cameron to drop his objections, tweeting: "you haven't got your own way so accept it and take part".

 

 

 

http://m.bbc.co.uk/n...litics-31771198

[Zaphod]

I live in a Conservative stong hold, so I'm voting Green to boost their vote share.

[joe00uk]

I live in a Conservative stong hold, so I'm voting Green to boost their vote share.

My constituency is rather strange - it is simultaneously a UKIP stronghold and a Greens stronghold

[Rainbow Frog]

 

I live in a Conservative stong hold, so I'm voting Green to boost their vote share.

My constituency is rather strange - it is simultaneously a UKIP stronghold and a Greens stronghold

 

 

Didn't somebody say green had a policy where you could legally be a member of a religious extremist or terrorist organization. There is only one thing we should not tolerate in a tolerant society, and that is intolerance.

[joe00uk]

 

 

I live in a Conservative stong hold, so I'm voting Green to boost their vote share.

My constituency is rather strange - it is simultaneously a UKIP stronghold and a Greens stronghold

 

 

Didn't somebody say green had a policy where you could legally be a member of a religious extremist or terrorist organization. There is only one thing we should not tolerate in a tolerant society, and that is intolerance.

 

Yes, that is true and it is absurd. It is the one thing I would strongly disagree with them about. They are too liberal by literal definition of the word.

[Zaphod]

 

 

 

I live in a Conservative stong hold, so I'm voting Green to boost their vote share.

My constituency is rather strange - it is simultaneously a UKIP stronghold and a Greens stronghold

 

 

Didn't somebody say green had a policy where you could legally be a member of a religious extremist or terrorist organization. There is only one thing we should not tolerate in a tolerant society, and that is intolerance.

 

Yes, that is true and it is absurd. It is the one thing I would strongly disagree with them about. They are too liberal by literal definition of the word.

 

 

There are a lot of things I disagree with in the Green party, but it's not like they are going to get into government and any influence they do have is primarily going to be environmentally related. I pretty much ignore their other policies.

[Ewan]

 

 

There are a lot of things I disagree with in the Green party, but it's not like they are going to get into government and any influence they do have is primarily going to be environmentally related. I pretty much ignore their other policies.

 

 

If that's the case, do you support their anti nuclear stance, and if so why? This is the fundamental issue I have with the Greens at the moment.

 

You know what annoys me the most at the moment? Conservative politicians keep going on & on about how we need to live within our means. They make it sound like we're doing a household budget, taking on credit card debt with huge interest rates & it's normal not to have debt. How Labour overspending destroyed our economy & ballooned our debt. They keep trying to make a complex issue a simple one to shore up votes.

 

Going by the figures I have it should be pointed out that our debt to GDP ratio BEFORE the financial crisis stayed around 30-40% from the 1980s to 2008 (so during both Labour & Tory governments). Government budget deficit between 1996 & 2008 fluctuated between -6% GDP & +4% GDP. The ballooning of our debt was caused entirely by the 2008 financial crisis. But this is never discussed, it's always implied that the reason we're in this mess is over spending & that is complete & utter nonsense. Almost every country over spends every year. Even Germany, the so-called champions of the austerity agenda had a debt to GDP that increased from 55% in 1996 to almost 70% just before the crisis hit. They had a budget deficit that fluctuated between -4% & 1% of GDP. Being permanently in surplus is not always a good thing. 

 

Now, you can argue that austerity is a good idea with a ballooning government debt. I don't agree with that point of view (because quite frankly I don't agree our government debt is that huge & I think spending more can spur growth & increase wages & tax receipts among other things which then decreases borrowing). But their basic argument that overspending is flawed, that's what got us into this mess is simply bizarre. Mark my words, I can absolutely guarantee you that once debt levels are down we will keep our budget deficit regardless of which party is in power.