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2020 Computers


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54 replies to this topic

#41
Yuli Ban

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I also admit I was wrong in regards to laptops falling out of fashion. I recall Jakob saying that they'd be around to stay into the 2040s, and I was skeptical. Ultimately, it looks like tablets were the actual fad and laptops persist. Unless I'm wrong again (which seems to be increasingly common) and it turns out laptops really will be dead by the 2040s. But as for the guy who said they'd be dead by 2020, that was just unbelievably wrong unless he were account for some existential disaster sending us back to the Dark Ages or the Singularity occurring by then and leading to humans with nothing but implants. Or both.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#42
Raklian

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Things go out of fashion when they do - not when we want or think them to. It's just the way things work, I guess.


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#43
dekoomer

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Things go out of fashion when they do - not when we want or think them to. It's just the way things work, I guess.

 

Good words. 

 

I do feel that the need for a portable mid-power computing medium will always be there. 

 

I feel laptops will never really go away during this modern age, However I do believe laptops will evolve in the coming decades, Like what happened to cell phones becoming into smartphones.


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#44
Guyverman1990

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HD just might become standard.

#45
Jakob

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Things go out of fashion when they do - not when we want or think them to. It's just the way things work, I guess.

 

Good words. 

 

I do feel that the need for a portable mid-power computing medium will always be there. 

 

I feel laptops will never really go away during this modern age, However I do believe laptops will evolve in the coming decades, Like what happened to cell phones becoming into smartphones.

 

Couldn't have put it better myself.


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#46
Ghostreaper

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I can give a very good reason as to why desktops will be around for some time to come. 

Even if technology increases at the pace it is, the adoption of the cutting edge technology is always years behind. Large companies have a big choice to make when it comes to new tech (and I speak from experience). 

 

- New tech offer advantages over competitors - reason for adopting

- Big companies need to ensure that new tech is adopted seamlessly or risk that technological advantage becoming a catastrophic disadvantage - reason for not adopting

 

E.g. A giant firm uses hardware X to produce their flagship product, it's their money maker, their cash cow. A new hardware comes along that is 50 times faster than their current hardware. They adopt the new hardware immediately, without spending the months or sometimes years to ensure that the tech is compatible with absolutely every other aspect of the business that it interacts with (lots and lots of red tape involved here).

 

New hardware turns out not to be compatible with a certain area of the business, but it's too late, the damage has been done. They fall behind with their production and are overtaken and subsequently bought out by a competitor. 

Tech moves fast, humans don't


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“If the genius of invention were to reveal to-morrow the secret of immortality, of eternal beauty and youth, for which all humanity is aching, the same inexorable agents which prevent a mass from changing suddenly its velocity would likewise resist the force of the new knowledge until time gradually modifies human thought.” 

 

                                                                 Nikola Tesla - New York World, May 19th 1907 


#47
MrDusk

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I can give a very good reason as to why desktops will be around for some time to come. 

Even if technology increases at the pace it is, the adoption of the cutting edge technology is always years behind. Large companies have a big choice to make when it comes to new tech (and I speak from experience). 

 

- New tech offer advantages over competitors - reason for adopting

- Big companies need to ensure that new tech is adopted seamlessly or risk that technological advantage becoming a catastrophic disadvantage - reason for not adopting

 

E.g. A giant firm uses hardware X to produce their flagship product, it's their money maker, their cash cow. A new hardware comes along that is 50 times faster than their current hardware. They adopt the new hardware immediately, without spending the months or sometimes years to ensure that the tech is compatible with absolutely every other aspect of the business that it interacts with (lots and lots of red tape involved here).

 

New hardware turns out not to be compatible with a certain area of the business, but it's too late, the damage has been done. They fall behind with their production and are overtaken and subsequently bought out by a competitor. 

Tech moves fast, humans don't

 

Very true. I don't see much reason to go and upgrade my phone yet or the Computer I literally just built 6 months ago (other than a new case that supports front IO and a second GPU for passthrough to a windows VM but that's not something I plan to do for another year when I'll need it). The only reason I can potentially see for me upgrading is if there's some significant new feature, something breaks and I cant have it repaired, or theres a huge boost in performance. Which for the moment I am not seeing in any of the latest gen hardware. What I have now is perfectly fine for what I need to do. It aint all about speed and performance. It's how you use it that counts.



#48
Yuli Ban

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I saw this thread in my feed and I wondered for a moment about computers from 5 years in the future.

 

But this isn't the 5-years-predictions thread.

 

 

TIME, WHY DO YOU MOVE SO QUICKLY?


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#49
Water

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I also admit I was wrong in regards to laptops falling out of fashion. I recall Jakob saying that they'd be around to stay into the 2040s, and I was skeptical. Ultimately, it looks like tablets were the actual fad and laptops persist. Unless I'm wrong again (which seems to be increasingly common) and it turns out laptops really will be dead by the 2040s. But as for the guy who said they'd be dead by 2020, that was just unbelievably wrong unless he were account for some existential disaster sending us back to the Dark Ages or the Singularity occurring by then and leading to humans with nothing but implants. Or both.

 

I'm typing this post on a laptop/tablet hybrid.

mind = blown



#50
Erowind

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Would it be fair to say that desktops are not in fashion for the average consumer anymore? I mean outside of business and niche markets like gaming or graphic design.


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#51
Alislaws

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I'd say so, I don't know anyone who has a desktop who is not also a PC gamer. I know that's anecdotal, but if you don't need top end performance and you're not on a very​ tight budget, laptops are much more practical than desktops.


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#52
techchic22

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it's already 2017 here and desktop still play big role in everyday life. Not all our prediction is correct, huh? Even though we now have powerful laptop, desktop is still necessary in many industry, e.g accounting, data analysis, design etc. Cause the work in those industries require big computer, big storage though.


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The statement above is false'

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#53
Yuli Ban

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2020 is gonna be here in a little over a year, and I feel I can feel out trends well enough to predict what they'll be by then.

 

Desktops are largely unchanged. Back in 2010, a good average desktop might've had a 512GB hard drive, 4GB of RAM, and a 2K screen. Most processors were between 30 and 60 gigaflops. They also used Windows 7, usually— my personal favorite since it's like Windows XP with everything improved, even though I never got a chance to really play around with it. 

Right now, for about $500, you can buy a desktop that has 16GB of RAM and 2TB of HDD.

When it comes to processing power, most average desktops haven't crossed the teraflop barrier, but there are also those Nvidia chips that can give around 110 teraflops of processing power— those are niche for gaming and machine learning and not what the average PC is going to be doing. In terms of functionality, desktops have largely peaked earlier this decade. The biggest innovation going on in the realm of desktops is with storage— you could get a 2TB HDD with your $500 desktop, or you could get a much faster 1TB SSD. By 2020, there'll likely be 4TB SSDs for sale. The rise of VR will also require a bump in power, so we could see more teraflops computers and 64GB RAM machines becoming cheaper. But altogether, the computer I bought in 2013 is still perfectly functional with most modern games. It'll still be usable in 2020. That's 7 years.

Imagine it being 2000 and you're trying to use a 1993-era desktop to play modern video games like Half-Life and Quake III: Arena or use the vastly expanding internet.

It was already starting to slow earlier this decade: go back to 2011 when this thread was made and imagine a computer from 2004 trying to keep up with a brand new one. Basic 2004-era computers were still below 3 GHz and you'd probably only have around 1GB of RAM and 64GB of storage to work with (double my old 2002-era desktop). Yet as long as you're not like I was— a gamer stuck with a basic desktop— then you'd get around well enough.

 

So all in all, don't expect much revolutionary change from desktops. 

 

 

Smartphones, on the other hand... hoo boy. It's like the '90s all over again. When we came into this decade, smartphones could display 3D graphics but most "mobile" games were 2D. In terms of gaming, smartphones circa 2010 were barely at Nintendo 3DS levels of power. And that generation of mobile gaming consoles were somewhere between the 5th and 6th gen in terms of power, though they were going to get a bump— IIRC, the PlayStation Vita was between a PS2 and PS3 and that didn't come out until 2011. 

 

Smartphones quickly caught up and overtook mobile consoles. Nowadays, smartphones are so powerful that it's been said that the iPhone 8 can come damn close to PS4 quality. Graphically, it's still behind; in terms of processing power, however, the iPhone is stronger. That's insane. High-end smartphones are regularly cramming 512GB (and, next year, 1TB) of solid-state storage alongside 16GB of RAM and several hundred gigaflops of processing power. This was utter science fiction at the start of the decade.

 

It's miniaturization in effect! Who knows, smartphones may stagnate like desktops next decade as smartglasses take over. It's not likely as long as there's no real easy way to control AR, but it's possible.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#54
TranscendingGod

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4tb SSDs are already being sold for around 1k.


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#55
Yuli Ban

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^ I mean 4TB SSDs that are native with an average desktop computer. Right now, the storage itself is around $1,000. But the price of solid-state drives is plunging exponentially, so it's probable that by 2020 you could get an entire computer with 4TB of SSD for the same price.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.





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