15 replies to this topic

[wjfox]

So I'm just updating the timeline and apparently there are numerous manned missions planned to the Moon in the 2020s. I'm reluctant to add them, however, as I just know they're going to be delayed, or even cancelled altogether. It's just so obvious this will happen, given the financial crises we're going to face.

http://en.wikipedia....manned_missions

If I had to pick one, I think China could possibly do it, given the rapid progress they're making with their space programme (which includes some pretty solid plans for a space station, too). The others just seem implausible. The ESA plan is almost certain to face problems in the coming years due to financial constraints. Ditto for the near-Earth asteroid mission that Obama mentioned (does anyone seriously believe this will happen by 2025?).

What do you think? The more references/links you can provide, the better.

[GNR Rvolution]

http://www.defencewe...pace&Itemid=107

Iran aims to launch a human into space by 2020 and land an astronaut on the moon by 2025.

Jeez, these guys are really going great guns, first UAVs that are better than anyone else, and now this?

[GNR Rvolution]

On a serious note, yeah I would say the Chinese are going to be the people to do it, if anyone does, although I would love to see a private enterprise do it...

[Logically Irrational]

I never really thought we would get back to the moon in the 2020s. I think we might just skip a step and wait until a moon base is feasible. I don't know what other people think, but maybe late 2030s, early 2040s? Most of the effort before that will be going towards Mars.

Maybe we'll be surprised though.

[truthiness]

Hmm... America has millions of noisy anti-science, anti-government types and is trillions in debt... the EU may be fragmenting... Russia seems to be having internal issues of its own... China could be seeing several bubbles bursting in the next decade...

How about India? They've got the talent. They've got partners in the US and in Russia who'd like to see India rise as a rival to China. They've already been to the moon once - their Chandrayaan-1 probe planted an Indian flag on the moon and was the one that discovered water there. Chandrayaan-2 is due to launch in 2014, and will include a rover. An Indian manned launch is due in 2016. They're working on a space shuttle. They're planning a moon landing by 2025 (although these dates have a tendency to walk away from you).

[jjf3]

Hmm... America has millions of noisy anti-science, anti-government types and is trillions in debt... the EU may be fragmenting... Russia seems to be having internal issues of its own... China could be seeing several bubbles bursting in the next decade...

How about India? They've got the talent. They've got partners in the US and in Russia who'd like to see India rise as a rival to China. They've already been to the moon once - their Chandrayaan-1 probe planted an Indian flag on the moon and was the one that discovered water there. Chandrayaan-2 is due to launch in 2014, and will include a rover. An Indian manned launch is due in 2016. They're working on a space shuttle. They're planning a moon landing by 2025 (although these dates have a tendency to walk away from you).

I agree India has the best shot.

I don't know about the anti-science part. Most people love the space program and was angry at Obama when he decided to allow NASA's funds to get cut. You ask most people what their first dream job in America would be and it would be Astronaut. I think people are upset with NASA because they HAVEN'T been sending humans to the moon. Most people want humans up there, not drones and robots. That's the science-y stuff they don't like. Which is why they are willing to spend thousands of dollars for a few minutes in space, themselves. And of course, this fuels the conspiracy theorists asking the question if we've ever been there at all. It's getting erased from our memory! We need another significant positive event like that to bring us all together. Will it happen? Not sure. I hope I get to see the Mars landing in my lifetime.

Edited by jjf3, 13 December 2011 - 12:03 AM.

[Roh234]

As a fiscal conservative, I'd say the NASA Space program is the most efficent and the best government program there is. We have the capability to send a man to Mars before this decade ends and at the fraction of the cost the US is using for 'protection'.

[ExplorerAtHeart]

As a fiscal conservative, I'd say the NASA Space program is the most efficent and the best government program there is.

Even then its a bloated mess

[Craven]

I'd bet on Chinese. Given their national ambition and way they run country they have best shot at some serious space exploration.

[eacao]

I think what is really needed, as boring as it may be is a bigger space station. A genuine port in LEO - unlike the ISS it's primary purpose should be as a stepping stone to the moon or Mars. That way, you need much smaller rockets to get things off the ground. If you send 53 tons of materials to that station using the falcon heavy, a large portion will get to the moon compared to sending 16 tonnes directly with the same vehicle.

Also, does anybody think that Elon is actually going to get to mars in 2035 - let alone 2020? Without going to the Moon first
If he doesn't run his company off the cliff, trying to catch a cloud with his fully reusable launch system, then he will trying to get to Mars during the largest economic depression ever experienced - the entire world almost without oil. I hope he wises up soon and focuses on building economical launch vehicles, driving down the cost. Hate to see SpaceX go bankrupt when they have so much potential, especially for the manned space launches for the US.

[dustinshaw98]

The Japanese have a better chance at it, Craven. Look at how they engineer things. It's just sad that Japan has been racked by natural disasters as of late.

http://www.detectdeceit.com/

[Craven]

Japan is good in robotics, but they are nowhere near capacity to explore space like Chinese do.

[stevo]

i would like to see Red Bull or Space X sponsor a mission and a base

[SG-1]

Does that mean that I have to drink that crap to help get a man to Mars?

[stevo]

LOL or maybe Sprite

[Logically Irrational]

I will toss out the date of 2041, based off of this article:

http://www.slate.com...y_on_mars_.html

In January, Newt Gingrich’s space ambitions were mocked by many experts as well as the public, particularly his vow that a moon colony would be established by the conclusion of his “second term.” Musk isn’t committing to a timeline nearly so ambitious; when pushed by Wright, he suggested that this could be a reality within the next 30 years.