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[Yuli Ban]

Your 2015 Predictions
Your 2016 Predictions ←You are here!
Your 2017 Predictions
Your 2018 Predictions
Your 2019 Predictions
Your 2020 Predictions

Your 2021 Predictions

 

 

Last year...

 

So the first year of The Future™ has been incredible, no doubt. Somehow, I got quite a bit of it right, and I'll create an end-of-the-year thread for it come New Year's. But now it's time to make guesses about what the world of 2016 will be like.

 

 

Just as last time, the official Timeline predictions first...

 

 

2016-2020 —

 

China builds the longest undersea tunnel in the world

 

2016 —

 

Completion of the Panama Canal expansion project

Microchipping of all dogs in England 

Euro 2016 is held in France

Rio de Janeiro hosts the Olympic Games 

The first manned flight of SpaceX's Dragon V2

India's first manned space flight

India launches its second unmanned lunar probe

The International Lunar Observatory begins operations

The first hotel in space

Balloon trips up to 20 miles high

The Juno probe arrives at Jupiter

The world's largest single-aperture telescope is completed in China

The mining industry is highly automated

Agricultural robots are appearing on farms

High-definition CCTV cameras are ubiquitous

OLED displays are in widespread use

Three-person babies

New drug delivery methods for brain-related conditions

A pill to prevent sunburn

Completion of the i5K project

China completes the largest environmental cleanup in its history

Polymer banknotes are introduced by the Bank of England

United States Presidential Election

 

Now for my own.

 

Virtual reality courts the mainstream with an array of devices, including Gear VR, Oculus Rift, PS VR, and Vive

Aldebaran's Pepper is released in the US and becomes an immediate success as the first affordable artificially intelligent domestic humanoid robot

Pepper gets the Amelia deep learning system installed, further assisting its capabilities

Domestic robots begin entering middle class homes at a shockingly high rate

Various hyped augmented reality smartglasses are released

Bitcoin becomes a legitimized currency

Successful launch of the Falcon Heavy

Deep learning algorithms/spiked neural networks reach superhuman success rates

Oil prices fall to historic lows and create a new and strangely uneven recession as the oil industry collapses

Solar and wind explode into the mainstream, obliterating all previous growth expectations

Battery/supercapacitor breakthrough proves to be a quantum leap forward for energy storage, advances all estimates relating to energy storage by five years

Nuclear fission makes a comeback as the oil industry is brought to its knees and a new generation of reactors begin coming online; nuclear industry chooses to work alongside renewables

Nuclear fusion enjoys multiple unbelievable breakthroughs; doubt is cast upon ITER as investment quadruples, at the very least, into commercial fusion power

Google Fiber begins first large-scale roll out over multiple cities at once, while municipalities begin rolling out their own high-speed internet en masse

Novelty of drones begins to wear off, especially as regulations begin being put in place, and they become an accepted norm of society

The first drone-based Global Internet service scheme begins

Smart TV market booms, especially as more ditch cable companies

OLED holographic screens are put on buildings to create 3D ads, beginning in cities such as Dubai, Tokyo, and New York

Bionic hands become fluidly dexterous, imitating real hands almost perfectly

New generation of ASIMO is unveiled to the public, featuring and showing off such bionic hands and also featuring a deep-learning based CPU

Robots competing in the DARPA Robotic Challenge seem to be worlds beyond 2015 models

First robot brothel opens

Autonomous vehicle technology accelerates growth, with AVs shown as being capable of traversing hazardous environments

Robots begin appearing in commercials more regularly

First UBI experiment attempted in a European city

ISIS is defeated

Autonomous flying car unveiled by a major automaker

Pet cloning industry grows

Memristor-based computer shown off

Biotech field sees further exponential growth

First asteroid mining mission begins, more as a proof of concept

Ukrainian conflict fades

Technosexuality begins encroaching into the mainstream as "virtual waifus" take off

Global carbon emissions begin to decline

8k TVs begin entering mass market

Haptic holograms proven to be able to interact with environment, lift small objects

Holograms begin entering the mainstream as the iPhone 7 introduces 3D holographic capabilities

Smartwatch capabilities improve as more become capable of health monitoring

Bernie Sanders elected President of the United States of America, with Elizabeth Warren as vice president

Worker cooperatives begin pushing their way into the mainstream

Saudi Arabia declares $100 billion+ deficit

Marijuana legalized in the United States, Canada, and a few other nations

Talk begins of legalizing all psychoactive drugs, at least for medical purposes

Australia recommits to green energy efforts following Abbott's green dark age and the near-collapse of the oil industry

Deep learning growth begins hyperacceleration of AI progress, faster even than Moore's Law

A deep learning algorithm learns to recognize the alphabet of any language

Deep learning begins moving onto auditory and haptic recognition

Experimental hyperloop track begins construction

RFID implants begin entering the sub-mainstream, mainly for animals and newborns, to the horror of conspiracy theorists

Internet of Things begins expanding more deeply into middle class homes

Lunar rediscovery as more space agencies begin plans to send rovers to, study, and colonize the moon

NASA announces manned mission to the moon by 2019, based on Falcon Heavy's success

Supersonic commercial jets reenter airports, but yet to carry passengers

GPUs undergo extreme upgrade

7nm computer chips enter production

3D chips enter production

Memristors enter mass production

Deep learning algorithms begin accelerating scientific growth

Higher temperature sub-room temperature superconductors discovered (perhaps up to -50°C)

Objects discovered on the very edge of the observable universe, suggesting the first formations of large cosmic structures began immediately after the big bang

Microbots and micromachines see boomtime as people begin focusing on the easier microscale rather than nanoscale

Beijing's air quality reaches record lows before rising by the end of the year

China begins plans to generate terawatts of electricity by 2030 via an intense focus on solar, wind, nuclear, etc. energy sources

[TranscendingGod]

I could criticize some of your predictions but I wont. So I'll just add that the plans for the Mars Colonial Transporter are unveiled.

[Yuli Ban]

I could criticize some of your predictions but I wont. 

You should. That just makes them more likely to come true.

[TranscendingGod]

Well i think you are overestimating the introduction of social robots into the general public. We may see some introduction but i doubt we will experience the proliferation that you make apparent.

 

I doubt ISIS will be defeated unless a coalition is undertaken but that is difficult to do, and unless we see a terroristic attack like that which happened on 9/11 it may not happen.

 

Bernie Sanders becoming president is a hopeful proposition.

 

A manned Lunar Mission fro Nasa is the last thing on their minds as they have made clear that they have a laser focus on getting to mars.

 

8k tv's may enter the market but they will be far from massively produced or sold as the prices will be in the 10's of thousands most likely.

 

Oil is gonna recuperate and if it does lose market share it won't be as extensive as you make it sound.

 

Those are my major gripes with your predictions.

[GenX]

I'm just going to stick with one.  After using Google Cardboard with two different devices, I'm going to predict that Oculus Rift doesn't turn out to be all that successful, and instead the public embraces things like Google Cardboard, Samsung VR, and any other devices that utilize your smartphone so that every time you get a new smartphone you basically get a free upgrade to your VR.  Oculus Rift will probably survive but will be used exclusively for gaming, where as headsets that use your smartphone will be for things like exploring the world (my favorite thing to do in VR is to explore Google Earth), museums, Mars (NASA just announced they will create a VR experience taken from photos that Curiosity has snapped on Mars and release it in March), etc.  I imagine eventually that Google or someone else will begin using drones to fly through major cities with 360 deg cameras so that people can log on and virtually explore London or Paris or Jerusalem or wherever.  

[Yuli Ban]

Well i think you are overestimating the introduction of social robots into the general public. We may see some introduction but i doubt we will experience the proliferation that you make apparent.

 

I doubt ISIS will be defeated unless a coalition is undertaken but that is difficult to do, and unless we see a terroristic attack like that which happened on 9/11 it may not happen.

 

Bernie Sanders becoming president is a hopeful proposition.

 

A manned Lunar Mission fro Nasa is the last thing on their minds as they have made clear that they have a laser focus on getting to mars.

 

8k tv's may enter the market but they will be far from massively produced or sold as the prices will be in the 10's of thousands most likely.

 

Oil is gonna recuperate and if it does lose market share it won't be as extensive as you make it sound.

 

Those are my major gripes with your predictions.

About social robots: Going from 0 to 3,000 units sold is my definition of "shockingly high rate of success", considering there is no market for social robots prior to 2016. So that's more or less low-hanging fruit. Pepper and others have to fail hard, like bafflingly Aldebaran has more Peppers returned than they initially sold, for me to consider it a failure.

 

A manned lunar mission is exactly the thing we need in order to get to Mars, and NASA knows it. In fact, a successful lunar mission means they could get even more funding, which can go towards heading to Mars

 

8k TVs are already on the market, but for about $100,000, and I know for a fact it's gonna take about a decade before they become mass produced.

 

Finally, I think you're overestimating the strength of ISIS. When Raqqa falls, that's it. If ISIS continues on as a shadowy insurgency, that's a different thing.

[nomad]

A lot has been covered already.

A serious Islamic terrorist attack occurs in the US.
Donald Trump wins the 2016 election.

ISIS wanes but remains.
Oil prices go back up to near but not quite the standard prices seen in the last 5 years.
A new season of Sword Art Online comes out.
The Transition Movement becomes increasingly mainstream.
The popularity of electric scooters and motorcycles rises with the cost of oil.

Employment protections for LGBT people in all 50 states makes significant progress on a Federal level.

[Smeargle]

Donald Trump wins the US election.

The world ends 15 minutes later, when he "accidentally" launches the entire US nuclear arsenal.

[Jakob]

Donald Trump wins the US election.

The world ends 15 minutes later, when he "accidentally" launches the entire US nuclear arsenal.

Even if he were elected, he would not become president until January 2017!

[TheComrade]

My prediction:

 

- The deepening of global economic crisis

- ISIS wanes but remains

- New outbreak of violence in Ukraine

- Turkey will get their own "Donbass" - the low-intese civil war in south-eastern Kurdish regions

- Hillary Clinton is a new president

- Further inevitable deterioration of Russian-Western relations

- One or two new wars in Third World

- Some new hi-tech toys and gadgets

[Guyverman1990]

Mosul will be re-captured from ISIS, causing the group to steadfastly decline in both power and influence.

Nintendo unveils the Nintendo NX

After 5 gruelling years of civil war in Syria, the tides turn against dictator Bashar Al-Assad.

Further improvements in relations between The US and Cuba.

[Yuli Ban]

Well damn, that was fast. First of many to come true, maybe?

 

Google is getting serious about its plan to wire the US with superfast internet

[Yuli Ban]

And this might make it two.

 

Toyota Patents a New Flying Car Design

[Yuli Ban]

Good God, is this Three??
 

Nasdaq makes first share trade using blockchain technology

Right, so the year isn't even a day old and we already have three predictions turning yellow.

 

Bitcoin becomes a legitimized currency
Autonomous flying car unveiled by a major automaker
Google Fiber begins first large-scale roll out over multiple cities at once, while municipalities begin rolling out their own high-speed internet en masse

[caltrek]

I pedict that people on this fourm will come to realize how absolutely horrible I am at predicting things.

[Yuli Ban]

Number 4 sounds like it would blow your ass apart, and the fourth potentially correct prediction...?
 
Micromachines and microtechnology!

 

DARPA funding ten approaches for nanometers or atomic precision scaled to millimeter sized products

[kjaggard]

drought in west coast US continues, with water rationing.
oil prices remain low for the year to undermine new fossil fuel industries out of business.
ISIS will have a coniption fit with how desensatized the world is becoming to them and try to get more attention again with some big act.
Self driving begins to move into shipping and touristy public transport systems and taxis. expect vandalism by upset people put out of work.
Buy human, starts as a movement following the Buy local as people advocate products and services that are the results of and pay the wages of human workforces.
'The universal translator' has it's first draft commercially available.
A home automated kitchen makes it's debut through croud funding campaigns.
The first VR 'movie' will be made available for download.
A rapid charging, long lifetime, battery made of more sustainable and environmentally safer materials hit markets by years end.
An attempt will be made somewhere in the world to institute a eugenics program.
A proposal will be made to agregate data on the usage of disability, social security, food stamps, welfare, and similar social programs into a psuedo credit score where "poor handling" (aka, not using them the way certain congress people think they should be used) of those programs leads to benefits cuts. A similar attempt is made for a score for all immigrants and even an attempt to do so for muslims.

[Sciencerocks]

One interesting thing that has come to be is China has kept fusion going for 120 seconds!!! This is a huge breakthrough. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if this is topped.

[TranscendingGod]

Yeah hopefully it is Matthew. Fusion is always 20 years away but maybe this time it is lol

[Yuli Ban]

One interesting thing that has come to be is China has kept fusion going for 120 seconds!!! This is a huge breakthrough. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if this is topped.

Germany plans to keep it up for 30 minutes, later this year IIRC.