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History's Failed Predictions Thread

Luddites Optimists Pessimists predictions history future

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30 replies to this topic

#21
Yuli Ban

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Failed apocalyptic predictions!

 

Here's one that says World War III will start in June 2016.

 

"Wait, Yuli, it isn't June yet."

 

I know, but hold on a sec— the prediction isn't that vague. The predictor, some Latino pastor who lives in Japan, actually outlines— in incredible detail— how it'll all play out, and was adamant that it had to play out this way. Well... everything kinda fell apart on square one.

 

How badly did it fall apart?

 

He said Europe would close all its borders at the end of 2015 and China would attack Japan in February. Then, on May 16th, an asteroid would hit Earth. Then Yellowstone would erupt. Following this, on June 16th, China and Russia will invade the US.

 

http://www.latinospo...-everything.htm

 

Taps watch

 

Y'know what's crazy? In an alternate timeline, this all happened exactly as he said it would.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#22
Yuli Ban

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7 times future predictions caught our attention but failed to happen!


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#23
Yuli Ban

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15 Ridiculous Predictions Which Didn't Come True!
 
Part Two!
 
Part Three!
 
 
 

Spoiler

 

 

Failed apocalyptic predictions!

 

Here's one that says World War III will start in June 2016.

 

"Wait, Yuli, it isn't June yet."

 

I know, but hold on a sec— the prediction isn't that vague. The predictor, some Latino pastor who lives in Japan, actually outlines— in incredible detail— how it'll all play out, and was adamant that it had to play out this way. Well... everything kinda fell apart on square one.

 

How badly did it fall apart?

 

He said Europe would close all its borders at the end of 2015 and China would attack Japan in February. Then, on May 16th, an asteroid would hit Earth. Then Yellowstone would erupt. Following this, on June 16th, China and Russia will invade the US.

 

http://www.latinospo...-everything.htm

 

Taps watch

 

Y'know what's crazy? In an alternate timeline, this all happened exactly as he said it would.

It's now June 17th in some parts of the world. I haven't heard of any invasion by China and Russia. Not that they could invade us right now, considering we haven't been crippled by an asteroid and supervolcano.

 

Hey, I have a prediction for June 16th. There'll be a massive UFO wave over the USA! The biggest mass sighting in history! Let's see if it pans out, chief.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#24
Yuli Ban

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Things People Said: Bad Predictions

A bitta overlap; a few new things stated.

 

10 Worst Tech Predictions of All Time

 

The crazy thing is— you can definitely see where some of these are coming from. What happens is that we experience black swans and pink flamingos so much more often than we think we will. This is one of the worst aspects of predicting the future, and why even the FutureTimeline may never have more than a 40 to 60% success rate— things happen that we never saw or fathomed coming, or things happen that we should've clearly seen coming but ignored due to biases.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#25
GalacticTortoise

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My friend sent me a video from American TV in 1920's about how they envisioned the future and I decided to write about it. Seriously, they thought that World War 1 was the last war on Earth. Others said we'll be eating sawdust by 2010 and that there'd be no nuclear power plants.

 

Black and White Future: Predictions from the Past

 

Feel free to give me feedback on the post, I'm just starting with blogging, gracias.



#26
Yuli Ban

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Thanks for the bump good sir, because now I can say for certain that none of the predictions I was talking about earlier have come true. No World War III on June 15th; no asteroid, no Yellowstone, none of that. 


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#27
Sciencerocks

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BACK ON TOPIC
 
Robert Heinlein's predictions for the Year 2000 (from 1952)
 
18lp56gep0jkajpg.jpg
 
 
Asimov's 2014 Predictions Were Shockingly Conservative

In 1964, sci-fi legend Isaac Asimov penned a piece for the New York Times with his predictions for the world of 2014. Looking at the World's Fair of 50 years hence, Asimov imagined 3D TV, underground cities, and colonies on the moon. Many people online have hailed this as an incredible example of prescient thinking, but what sticks out to me is just how shockingly restrained—unoriginal, even—his predictions were for the time.
There was nothing Asimov proposed in that article that hadn't already been promised by popular futurism of the 1950s and early '60s. In fact, you can pretty much find every single one of Asimov's 1964 predictions in the 1962-63 TV show "The Jetsons" — a show that existed to parody the future as much as embrace it. This isn't a slight to Asimov, but rather an indication that popular visions of the future evolve like any other idea: Slowly and in a sort of invisible collaboration with the culture at large.

 

 

 

What do you think want wrong for this so called restrained future to be totally wrong?



#28
Yuli Ban

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AI and computers.

 

You know the trope that science fiction is "the present in the future", right? If one were to write a story set in the 3010s, it would most likely resemble the 2010s but with flying cars, super-tall skyscrapers, and robots. You don't tend to get too deep into the hard science of things.

 

Unless you're writing hard sci-fi. Then you do get deep into the hard science of things... except, in most cases, "hard science" really means "hard physics." It does not mean "hard psychology" or "hard neurology" or any of that. When you consider these things, stuff like flying cars no longer make sense. Humans have an absolutely terrible time with navigating a 2D plane at high speeds. Add another dimension, and you're looking at gigadeath. Things like decoding the genome in order to figure out diseases also requires supercomputing, otherwise would would have done it decades ago. Things like populating the outer solar system require advanced material science and cheap fuel to get to and fro— if we only ever put human minds to the task, we wouldn't reach the outer solar system for centuries. In fact, the reason why we haven't gone back to the moon is because it's so expensive and yields so little fruit. We did it just to say we did it, not to actually colonize the place. 

We need some way to be able to think a thousand years in a day, to be able to find every pattern conceivable, etc. We humans can't do that, no matter how many of us there are; it's like trying to get chimpanzees to kickstart civilization.

 

Also: funding. Most parties on Earth don't care about space exploration. Right wing parties want to cut science in order to build up defense; left wing parties want to cut science in order to build up welfare. We've had plenty of Democrats and Republicans ever since 1966— the peak of NASA funding— and yet NASA's budget has only ever decreased. It's gotten to such a ridiculously bad point that we were cheering for 2016's "massive" NASA budget, despite the fact it's still one of the 10 lowest budgets ever. In fact, one reason why I don't comment on your opposition to Republicans is because it was Clinton and Obama who buttfuck't NASA's budget the worst. Then again, it was a Democrat who gave it its largest budget— Johnson, though he did it mainly to achieve Kennedy's wish of putting a man on the moon. 

 

In the end, it's been the computer that's kept us from post-industrial stagnation, as we plucked all the low hanging fruit by the '60s (hence why some people think Gen X, Y, and Z haven't had their own 'Moonshot' moment). I don't think Heinlein (or most early sci-fi authors) foresaw just how many of these sci-fi innovations would be tied to computing power and funding. It seems that most people think "future = more advanced", just because. In fact, 2016 could have been just as advanced as 1966 if computers stagnated around that time, and computers could have stagnated by way of no one funding their development. We needed computers to go to the moon, as weak as they were. 

 

We could still be in medieval times if no one funded the Renaissance or global colonialism. NASA could have created smartphones in 1970, and no one would have them if private industry didn't fund their development and marketing.

 

We won't have robot butlers until computers can autonomously navigate 3D space well. We won't have an end to disease until we are able to attack viruses, bacteria, and cancers at the root.

 

Of course, combining computers with money might ease all that— create wealthy artificial intelligences, for example.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#29
Yuli Ban

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Incorrect predictions
From Wikiquote!


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#30
funkervogt

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"Sometime in the 1980's the advanced sector, beginning with the U.S., will collapse into a new Dark Age -- perhaps in a matter of weeks -- after breakdowns in energy, transit and communications systems intensify each other. The population will be halved, decentralized, exposed to a new barbarism."

https://www.kirkusre...oming-dark-age/

 

That summarizes a 1973 book called The Coming Dark Age



#31
TranscendingGod

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All books ever written about peak oil. 


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The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Luddites, Optimists, Pessimists, predictions, history, future

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