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Futureshock

futureshock artificial intelligence robots Pepper ASIMO smartphones iPhone Go

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#1
Yuli Ban

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Let's talk about Pepper the Robot. I'd say Pepper is probably the best example of futureshock since the smartphone. Pepper, an artificially intelligent humanoid robot, is something straight out of science fiction. It's something kid me from the late 1990s and early 2000s expected to see by the 2100s and 3000s. I've been hearing so much about it since 2014 that I've become blunted to any news. Even when I learned that it's now using IBM's Watson (as of January 2016 at that), I was like, "Oh. That's cool." 

 

552R9jz.png

 

Go back to the third of February of 2010. Tell me about Pepper as it exists on 3 February, 2016. I'd tell you, "No way. Not by 2016. Maybe 2030!" Note, Watson hadn't even beaten Jeopardy by then. Not for another year, and even then it was the size of a room and didn't use deep learning. There was no reason to believe it was going to anytime soon. So something like Pepper sounds like you'd not hear of it until the 2030s. The idea that it could be sold this decade, for under $2,000, would just bring you some laughs.

 

If I were active on the FutureTimeline forums as they existed in 2010, I'd call this all too optimistic.

 

And here we are. AI has beaten humans at Go, a feat people in 2010 thought we wouldn't do for another several decades.

I mean, before last week, people said they wouldn't beat us at Go for another decade. So we're probably in the middle of a hard take-off as we speak. 

 

And let us also mention...

 

3dyOA3D.png

 

Seriously? A flying car? (Or a manned drone, or whatever BS they wanna call it to not call it a flying car)

 

Yeah. 2040s at the earliest.

 

Nope.

 

2016. Ehang 184 is an autonomous flying car. Called it all the way back in 2013, by the way, that the only way flying cars will ever take off (no pun intended) will be if it's autonomous.

 

Oh. And did I mention HoloLens?

 

0feb7a56-f8c1-45e1-a412-a7edf8141f4e.jpg

 

This year, if you have the money and live in the right place (primarily East Asia and Dubai), it'll be possible to...

 

Get in your autonomous flying car, wearing augmented reality glasses for a waypoint, to go buy your artificially intelligent personal droid. 

 

Didn't we expect all this to occur in the 2030s and 2040s? It's still the 2010s, and it's all coming true. Sure, you still have some cynics who say that it's not a flying car if it doesn't use antigravity— which doesn't exist— or that Pepper doesn't count since it can't do chores— even though it can potentially be crowd-programmed to do some chores, never mind that it's a freakin' emotional robot. Sci-fi always taught us robots would be emotionless slaves, and here we have a goddamn emo robot that is thus superior to classic sci-fi robots. Just like our communication devices are superior to classic sci-fi devices.

 

*Hag groan*

 

So tl;dr, I'm undergoing a bit of futureshock at the moment. 


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#2
caltrek

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Nice post.  I know I have mentioned this before, but for those who may have missed it the first few times around, I thought I might mention a thing or two about the whole notion of "future shock". The phrase itself can, I think, be properly attributed to Alvin Toffler and his wife who wrote a book by that title. However, before the Tofflers, there was an economist named Joseph Schumpeter.  He spoke of capitalism being a "whirlwind of creative destruction," and thus can be given some credit as to how the notion of future shock developed. Before Schumpeter, there was Karl Marx, who wrote that under capitalism "all that is solid melts into the air, all that is holy becomes profaned."  In this way, Marx was actually a bit of a cultural conservative, even as he opposed capitalism.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#3
TranscendingGod

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These technologies are still largely in their infancy. Further refinement is needed and while it is indeed amazing at the rate of progression we have yet to see if the rate of adoption and refinement are up to par.

I am of the opinion that adoption and further more refined iterations will be proliferated through the rest of the 2010's and we will be mired in the normality of such things as robots and autonomy by the early to mid 2020's.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#4
leoking2000

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i am wonder what a person from the 2006 will think about this picture 

3dyOA3D.png



#5
Yuli Ban

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Let me put on my 2006 Cap

 

 

 

"Is that a still from Bladerunner?"

 

"That's gonna be New York in 2100, huh?"

 

"This looks like a cool movie."

 

After being told this is Dubai, 2016

 

"Uh uh. No way, that's way too soon. Maybe 2056, but not 2016."

 

"I guess that would explain the rotors rather than the antigravity drive..."

 

"That's so cool! I can't wait! Are there robots too?!"


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#6
Yuli Ban

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Here's some extreme futureshock. 

 

This man was arrested 44 years ago (from when the article was written, at least). Now he's free, and the world is unrecognizable to him.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#7
Erowind

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I find myself feeling futureshock sometimes. Not because of seeing what is around me in the world today. No, I get futureshock when thinking about the immense change I will see in my lifetime. Even if none of the predictions that are made in the past decade ever come true, the future when I am a 70 year old person will still be unrecognizable to the me of today. I often think of how my grandfather told me about seeing horses and buggies on the road and how he road a street car to the factory in the steel city during WWII. Think about how alien that scene would be to us today. Imagine a world where you being an underage worker wake up early in the morning not to see the sun but instead to see ashes falling like snow and smog blocking the sunlight like a thunderstorm. To then leave your home to get on a streetcar and ride into town to help produce steel for battleships that then go to fight a global war unlike any "conflict" we would see today. Now think about how many things have changed since that alien picture that was painted of Pittsburgh only 72 years ago. Now think about how different the world will be for you 72 years from today.


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#8
Yuli Ban

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God damn.

 

How is it possible to feel futureshock from a single year? 

 

2015-Me would be undergoing futureshock right now if he saw all the shit that was happening. 2014-Me even moreso.

 

Actually, let's go with 2014-Me. Why? Because this is the 2 year anniversary of the first ever Yuli Banularity. Well actually, it was the 2 year anniversary a few weeks ago. May 2014 was the first time I spammed dozens of news articles at a rapid pace, and I did it because

 

1- I felt the forums were losing focus, as there were many news stories that were happening but no one was posting them in lieu of other petty troubles

 

2- there were a fuckton of news stories. Maybe that was just because I was finally paying attention, but I seriously felt as if the world had entered a pre-Singularity stage that month. It helped that I had just become a born-again Singularitarian earlier that year, in March. 

 

A lot of things have changed since 2014, actually. I'm no longer super-anxious about the world. Sure, there are rightist movements all over the West, but what else is new? 2014 was a bloody year all around. That was the worst year in the Syrian Civil War, that's when ISIS rose to prominence in the mainstream media, that's when Russia invaded Ukraine, just a whole bunch of terrible stuff. I remember feeling, in late April 2014, like nuclear war was imminent. Maybe that high anxiety contributed to my whole 'Ether Dream' that I keep talking about?

 

Ever since, the Syrian Civil War has calmed down, the Ukrainian war has gone low-intensity, and ISIS is breaking apart. 

 

Meanwhile, deep learning has leapfrogged over us all. Google bought DeepMind in 2014, remember? Just 2 years later, all those extra resources got put to good use— an AI defeated the world champion at Go ten fucking years ahead of schedule. And come to find out, Google has developed a computer chip that actually does advance machine learning by about 7 years. In 2014, I never thought that would be happening. AI today is in a place I didn't think it would be for another decade. 

 

 

 

Autonomous cars are a thing. They've been a thing since October. Sure, they're not fully autonomous, but the Tesla Autopilot feature is still revolutionary in that, for the first time ever, a commercially available automobile has demonstrated autonomous capabilities. 

 

I remember just a few years ago watching an NBC report on Google's driverless car and thinking how cool it would be to ride in an AV. I figured, "Huh, I'll eventually get to do it, maybe in the 2030s." The idea that the option would be available to me within a few years would've blown my sad mind. Sure, it's beyond my wallet's love, but it's still on the market, isn't it?

 

still can't fucking get over that. Take a step back and realize that there are vehicles driving themselves, on the road, right now. To me, this wasn't supposed to happen for decades. Driverless trucks would be teased in the late 2010s and might see some legitimate road action in the mid to late 2020s, but this decade's too soon.

 

NOPE. We should be seeing them in action by 2018. 

 

Pepper. Pepper. Pepper. I used to disregard Pepper.

 

Back in 2014, Pepper just seemed so... unimpressive. She seemed to be an oversized toy, rather than a legitimate artificially intelligent humanoid robot. Pepper seemed like a toy from the '90s repackaged in a humanoid plastic mold. Her answers felt stiff and pre-programmed. 

 

Then comes 2016, and I watch videos on Pepper in action. She's still not perfect, but goddamn, it's like a whole different product compared to what I saw in 2014. And no wonder— Pepper's using IBM's Watson. 

 

IBM Watson! The only rival to Google DeepMind thus far. 

 

And then I learn that Pepper sold out each and every time she went on sale. 1,000 units sold in 60 seconds flat, every single time. And she's coming to America this year. Holy crap, so you're telling me I can actually buy an artificially intelligent humanoid robot companion? For $1,800? 

 

ASIMO costs $1 million! Sure, ASIMO can do chores, but it's still heavily preprogrammed, and it's never been sold. And I don't think ASIMO is "emotional." This is a robot even the middle class can afford.

 

 

But is that all? Fuck no, what kind of Future would this be?

 

Virtual reality. When I created this thread, only the Gear VR and Cardboard were out. Now we finally have the Oculus Rift and HTC Vive for sale. And Google's getting into the fray, among several others.

 

In 2014, where was VR? Oculus just got bought out by Facebook, but other than that, nothing much. The best VR headsets were pisspoor and expensive compared to the current generation, and 95% of people were unaware they were available. 2 years later, there are now concerns that there are too many VR headsets on the market.

 

We went from "dead fad with the hope of a revival" to "flooding the market" in 2 years flat. And again, the market's still expanding— Apple and Google have yet to release their headsets.

 

 

 

And that's not including the HoloLens, Meta 2, and Magic Leap. Oh god, augmented reality. You can buy the HoloLens developer's kit now. 

 

Smartwatches.

 

HOLY. FUCK. The only thing more amazing than smartwatches is our passe reaction to them. Smartwatches represent raw, unadulterated science fiction. We're watching live-streamed HD videos of Pluto and calling our friends and relatives on our watches

 

 

 

More, more, I need more! My technolust is only growing stronger. 

 

And yet, as my technolust grows, so does my love for the natural world. I used to hate living in the country. Now I kinda don't wanna move away. And I said about as much in this article.

 

 

2016. God, that sounds so futuristic. And it's only going to get better and better!


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#9
Yuli Ban

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Wrote up a post here, and we had a lively discussion

https://www.reddit.c...rocution_these/


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#10
Yuli Ban

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This.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#11
masterwigglestin

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Great posts, and I'm feeling it too. Its kind of scary but exciting and I can't wait for more.

"Society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in."


#12
Raarnt

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I keep thinking about the tech giants out there and how they're going to shape the technology landscape - and our very future - in the years to come.

Stuff is getting automated like never before. AI is emerging for real and getting so much more powerful every day. 10 years from now will be like the last 50 in terms of technological progress, maybe more due to aid from emerging AI systems. 

 

ASI is definitely the tech that needs to happen the most.. We need it so badly to aid our crappy corrupted governments and poor decision makings. 


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Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: futureshock, artificial intelligence, robots, Pepper, ASIMO, smartphones, iPhone, Go

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