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Reminder: If We Fail, That's It

human extinction failed civilization

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#1
Yuli Ban

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This is just Ol' Yuli coming to remind everyone that we only have one shot at transcendence, and if we blow it, we will never get that chance again.

 

Should we destroy civilization, there are not enough fossil fuels in easily reachable places for any subsequent society to achieve an Industrial Revolution. We mined most of it and the only stuff that's left requires modern technology to reach.

 

http://aeon.co/magaz...t-fossil-fuels/

 

And though fossil fuels can be renewed, they almost certainly won't be renewed quickly enough for any future civilization to find them useful. Certainly not for any near-future human civilization.

 

We basically live at the penultimate point of life on planet Earth. It's not too hot, nor is it too cold. There's just enough fossil fuels to get us to the point where we can use post-fossil fuel technology. All extinction-level events (I really refer to them as 'civilization busters' since they probably couldn't render us extinct anyway) took place too far in the past to have any effect on the progress of our technology. We lived on the edge of nuclear apocalypse for 50 years, and we avoided it only through the greatest luck. Climate change has begun, but it has not reached civilization busting levels, nor is it expected to reach civilization busting levels by the time we develop artificial intelligence. In fact, we've begun outpacing our own extinction because of how rapidly our computer technology is advancing.

 

We basically need only 100 more years. 100 more years of no interruptions, and we'll be cosmic gods. It's increasingly likely that we won't even need that much time.

 

But if we do get interrupted, and we do stumble... pzfft. That's it. Kaput. Earth dies a dead planet. 

 

No pressure, right?


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#2
Soundwave

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This is just Ol' Yuli coming to remind everyone that we only have one shot at transcendence, and if we blow it, we will never get that chance again.

 

Should we destroy civilization, there are not enough fossil fuels in easily reachable places for any subsequent society to achieve an Industrial Revolution. We mined most of it and the only stuff that's left requires modern technology to reach.

 

http://aeon.co/magaz...t-fossil-fuels/

 

And though fossil fuels can be renewed, they almost certainly won't be renewed quickly enough for any future civilization to find them useful. Certainly not for any near-future human civilization.

 

We basically live at the penultimate point of life on planet Earth. It's not too hot, nor is it too cold. There's just enough fossil fuels to get us to the point where we can use post-fossil fuel technology. All extinction-level events (I really refer to them as 'civilization busters' since they probably couldn't render us extinct anyway) took place too far in the past to have any effect on the progress of our technology. We lived on the edge of nuclear apocalypse for 50 years, and we avoided it only through the greatest luck. Climate change has begun, but it has not reached civilization busting levels, nor is it expected to reach civilization busting levels by the time we develop artificial intelligence. In fact, we've begun outpacing our own extinction because of our rapidly our computer technology is advancing.

 

We basically need only 100 more years. 100 more years of no interruptions, and we'll be cosmic gods. It's increasingly likely that we won't even need that much time.

 

But if we do get interrupted, and we do stumble... pzfft. That's it. Kaput. Earth dies a dead planet. 

 

No pressure, right?

Interesting thought. I do agree but the earth has at least another 3-4 billion years before civilization could no longer exist on the planet. That is more than enough time to create fossil fuels. It took 231 million years to create the fossil fuels we use today. Civilization could exist in the future but it would be millions of years before the climate fixes itself and fossil fuels are plentiful again



#3
Yuli Ban

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A billion, you mean.

 

1 billion years from now, Earth will be too hot to support life

 

https://www.washingt...36dd_story.html

http://www.bbc.com/e...e-on-earth-last


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#4
Soundwave

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http://www.livescien...pport-life.html

 

This link says 1.75-3.25 billion years.

 

Regardless, civilization could still form after just 250 million years.


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#5
Pisiu369

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Yes sadly that is the truth we have only 1 shot at this. World War 3 doesn't seem likes its coming and I can't think of any big threats other then nukes and global warming



#6
Infinite

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Yeah I a agree that AI will be our best friend in the path to transcendence. Not only will it vastly speed up research and technological improvements,
but it will also, arguably most importantly, be able to guide us on how to implement and use them. Before it's too late I hope.

If we keep climate change under control, maybe a maximum increase of 3 degrees, I think we will survive to see the end of the century. It is the single greatest threat facing humanity at the present moment.

Another threat we face are asteroids. Of course these are a serious threat to our survival (anybody hear of the dinosaurs?) but if we are able to track their paths we should have enough time to prepare a project to halt their devastation. The thing I'm worried about are the millions of asteroids we can't see.

I've recently been thinking about the supervolcano Yellowstone and how it's long overdue for an eruption. The last time it erupted it covered the whole northern hemisphere with its ash, causing a nuclear winter for many years. If that overdue eruption happens within the next hundred years, we're screwed.

As a question, how does anyone propose we deal with a supervolcanic eruption so powerful? Do we try and fight it or do we run away?

I think we bear a certain...responsibility over the future of our species, more than any other time period before. We really shouldn't fuck it up.
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Is minic an fhírinne searbh.


#7
PhoenixRu

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Should we destroy civilization, there are not enough fossil fuels in easily reachable places for any subsequent society to achieve an Industrial Revolution.

 

There are still more than enough places with easily reachable coal. So the "next try" industrial revolution may be based on:

wood > coal > coal and electricity > synthetic oil (optionally) > nuclear energy > something futuristic. Perhaps it will take more time than our industrial revolution (say 5-10 centuries instead of 2-3) but in general i see nothing impossible. Even coal is not so necessary, imho, as soon as they mastered the secrets of electricity and (later) chemistry. Though this will take even more time.


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--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

 

"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#8
wjfox

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This is just Ol' Yuli coming to remind everyone that we only have one shot at transcendence, and if we blow it, we will never get that chance again.

 

Should we destroy civilization, there are not enough fossil fuels in easily reachable places for any subsequent society to achieve an Industrial Revolution. We mined most of it and the only stuff that's left requires modern technology to reach.

 

http://aeon.co/magaz...t-fossil-fuels/

 

And though fossil fuels can be renewed, they almost certainly won't be renewed quickly enough for any future civilization to find them useful. Certainly not for any near-future human civilization.

 

We basically live at the penultimate point of life on planet Earth. It's not too hot, nor is it too cold. There's just enough fossil fuels to get us to the point where we can use post-fossil fuel technology. All extinction-level events (I really refer to them as 'civilization busters' since they probably couldn't render us extinct anyway) took place too far in the past to have any effect on the progress of our technology. We lived on the edge of nuclear apocalypse for 50 years, and we avoided it only through the greatest luck. Climate change has begun, but it has not reached civilization busting levels, nor is it expected to reach civilization busting levels by the time we develop artificial intelligence. In fact, we've begun outpacing our own extinction because of how rapidly our computer technology is advancing.

 

We basically need only 100 more years. 100 more years of no interruptions, and we'll be cosmic gods. It's increasingly likely that we won't even need that much time.

 

But if we do get interrupted, and we do stumble... pzfft. That's it. Kaput. Earth dies a dead planet. 

 

No pressure, right?

 

This is precisely what I've been saying for years.

 

The 21st century is "make or break" for the human race.

 

Great book by James Martin who makes the same point: http://www.jamesmartin.com/book/


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#9
Recyvuym

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We've basically already blown it this time. The hope I hold out for is the more distant future, who knows how long - thousands of years? - before the Earth and the human race recovers enough to rebuild. Hopefully our descendents will learn from our mistakes and get it right next time. Like PhoenixRu said, recovery by other means is not inconceivable, depending on how this collapse unfolds.

 

Civilisations come and go. It's hard for us to imagine life without our present structures, but the same was true for the Romans, and the ancient world could never have imagined the basically miraculous technology we have at our disposal today, nor the development and sophistication of our psyche.

 

I agree humans have the ability to achieve transcendence, but it won't be via the path we're going down now, which is set to be a very grim one. The human race cannot transcend its problems technologically, it needs to mature psychologically and sociologically first. I look around and I see Donald Clintons and Hillary Trumps getting elected and I think, what, this is the species that's going to colonise the galaxy? Starting in a hundred years? You'd better hope for a massive worldwide political and spiritual revolution right now if you're that optimistic.

 

I have to disagree with you, Pisiu369, I think WWIII is much more likely today than it has been since the last Cold War, and that the risk will only increase over time, at least until or unless things change drastically. Between NATO vs Russia, US vs China, India vs Pakistan, North Korea vs South Korea, Israel vs Iran et al, and psychotic terrorist cells, someone's gonna hit the Big Red Button sooner or later. Especially as the world continues to suffer extremes of economic and ecological strains.

 

Just my 2c. I know it's not the mood people go for here, but take my point of view as an extension of what Yuli Ban said. It's make or break. I would rather we sorted our shit out now and get on with being space-gods than have to go through centuries of scratching a living out of the irradiated, superheated soil.


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I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#10
TranscendingGod

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We've basically already blown it this time. The hope I hold out for is the more distant future, who knows how long - thousands of years? - before the Earth and the human race recovers enough to rebuild. Hopefully our descendents will learn from our mistakes and get it right next time. Like PhoenixRu said, recovery by other means is not inconceivable, depending on how this collapse unfolds.

 

Civilisations come and go. It's hard for us to imagine life without our present structures, but the same was true for the Romans, and the ancient world could never have imagined the basically miraculous technology we have at our disposal today, nor the development and sophistication of our psyche.

 

I agree humans have the ability to achieve transcendence, but it won't be via the path we're going down now, which is set to be a very grim one. The human race cannot transcend its problems technologically, it needs to mature psychologically and sociologically first. I look around and I see Donald Clintons and Hillary Trumps getting elected and I think, what, this is the species that's going to colonise the galaxy? Starting in a hundred years? You'd better hope for a massive worldwide political and spiritual revolution right now if you're that optimistic.

 

I have to disagree with you, Pisiu369, I think WWIII is much more likely today than it has been since the last Cold War, and that the risk will only increase over time, at least until or unless things change drastically. Between NATO vs Russia, US vs China, India vs Pakistan, North Korea vs South Korea, Israel vs Iran et al, and psychotic terrorist cells, someone's gonna hit the Big Red Button sooner or later. Especially as the world continues to suffer extremes of economic and ecological strains.

 

Just my 2c. I know it's not the mood people go for here, but take my point of view as an extension of what Yuli Ban said. It's make or break. I would rather we sorted our shit out now and get on with being space-gods than have to go through centuries of scratching a living out of the irradiated, superheated soil.

There have always been those who would doubt. All throughout history there have been those who would claim that our end is nearer than it was 100 years ago.

 

We are still here. I believe we will still be here in a 100 years and in a much better state than we are now as this is what has happened all throughout history. Time will tell but time has told time and time again.


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The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#11
Recyvuym

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Except Rome really did fall.

 

And the Assyrian Empire. And Babylonia. And Sumer. etc.

 

Collapse of civilisation is not a new phenomenon to the human race.


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I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#12
TranscendingGod

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Except Rome really did fall.
 
And the Assyrian Empire. And Babylonia. And Sumer. etc.
 
Collapse of civilisation is not a new phenomenon to the human race.


Oh certainly. Humanity however has persevered. The United States won't be THE superpower for long I don't think. It's time is limited and this is quite evident.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#13
cerealkiller

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Yes sadly that is the truth we have only 1 shot at this. World War 3 doesn't seem likes its coming and I can't think of any big threats other then nukes and global warming

I wouldn't be too sure on that. The Russian's and North Korea need reigning in. Then there is the threat of global terrorism as well. Terrorists seem to be woven into the fabric of our lives now and that won't change. The problem will only get worse.
We create our own future's and therefore our own destinies.

#14
Zeitgeist123

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which leads me to brainfart:

 

with the gradual worsening effects of global warming, this will weaken our civilization. aside from that, we also have to contend with global terrorists.  could it be that:

 

modern civilization = holy roman empire

islamic terrorists = the barbarians and the vikings

 

could it be that our future is f*cked? history does repeat itself.


“Philosophy is a pretty toy if one indulges in it with moderation at the right time of life. But if one pursues it further than one should, it is absolute ruin." - Callicles to Socrates


#15
cerealkiller

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I don't believe in this blissful future that some believe in, we will always have crazy but jobs who kill or terrorise in the name of something.
I believe the future will be similar to that of the latest total recall film. We will have amazing technology incorporated into our every day lives, but the world will be a very dangerous place.
We create our own future's and therefore our own destinies.

#16
Zeitgeist123

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^^yeah, i agree with this. which is also the reason why i am not really concerned as to whether or not ill be able to see this promising technology before dying. capitalism is just way too powerful.


“Philosophy is a pretty toy if one indulges in it with moderation at the right time of life. But if one pursues it further than one should, it is absolute ruin." - Callicles to Socrates


#17
Yuli Ban

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which leads me to brainfart:

 

with the gradual worsening effects of global warming, this will weaken our civilization. aside from that, we also have to contend with global terrorists.  could it be that:

 

modern civilization = holy roman empire

islamic terrorists = the barbarians and the vikings

 

could it be that our future is f*cked? history does repeat itself.

Well, if I can give modern civilization one bit of credit, it's this— the Romans never had artificial intelligence.


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#18
TranscendingGod

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^^yeah, i agree with this. which is also the reason why i am not really concerned as to whether or not ill be able to see this promising technology before dying. capitalism is just way too powerful.

That is simply not correct. Technology has been increasing at an exponential rate regardless of the economic or political systems implemented at that time. Through World War 1 and the Great depression and through World War 2. I see no reason why it will not continue on its upward trend. Capitalism has actually hastened the arrival of novel technology as it has driven investment. This increased investment has actually led to exponentiation being added to the already exponential growth rate of technology.


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The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#19
Pisiu369

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You guys are talking about Empires falling....not civilization. I believe humans can keep on going and survive through all of it. The cold war was beneficially for the human race. Think off all the technology we developed because of the cold war, NOT TO MENTION that USA and USSR nearly worked together to get to the moon but JFK was shot so the USSR didn't trust the new president. A second cold war would be good, a race to mars? probably but how about a race to the asteroid belt? Imagine that.


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#20
voluntaryist

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This is just Ol' Yuli coming to remind everyone that we only have one shot at transcendence, and if we blow it, we will never get that chance again.

 

Should we destroy civilization, there are not enough fossil fuels in easily reachable places for any subsequent society to achieve an Industrial Revolution. We mined most of it and the only stuff that's left requires modern technology to reach.

 

http://aeon.co/magaz...t-fossil-fuels/

 

And though fossil fuels can be renewed, they almost certainly won't be renewed quickly enough for any future civilization to find them useful. Certainly not for any near-future human civilization.

 

We basically live at the penultimate point of life on planet Earth. It's not too hot, nor is it too cold. There's just enough fossil fuels to get us to the point where we can use post-fossil fuel technology. All extinction-level events (I really refer to them as 'civilization busters' since they probably couldn't render us extinct anyway) took place too far in the past to have any effect on the progress of our technology. We lived on the edge of nuclear apocalypse for 50 years, and we avoided it only through the greatest luck. Climate change has begun, but it has not reached civilization busting levels, nor is it expected to reach civilization busting levels by the time we develop artificial intelligence. In fact, we've begun outpacing our own extinction because of our rapidly our computer technology is advancing.

 

We basically need only 100 more years. 100 more years of no interruptions, and we'll be cosmic gods. It's increasingly likely that we won't even need that much time.

 

But if we do get interrupted, and we do stumble... pzfft. That's it. Kaput. Earth dies a dead planet. 

 

No pressure, right?

Interesting thought. I do agree but the earth has at least another 3-4 billion years before civilization could no longer exist on the planet. That is more than enough time to create fossil fuels. It took 231 million years to create the fossil fuels we use today. Civilization could exist in the future but it would be millions of years before the climate fixes itself and fossil fuels are plentiful again

 

The Sun will cause Earth to be uninhabitable in about 500 million years, sans Kardashev level I to II technology (such as moving Earth's orbit outward).  







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