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Ukraine Watch Thread

Ukraine politics news

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#41
PhoenixRu

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Nobody cares about Ukraine anymore, i know. And still, i'll continue. Let this thread serve as my little personal blog.

 

I just found an Interesting statistics about Ukrainian utility bills: This is collapse. Debts for utility subsidies have grown by 52 times

 

Everyone knows they (utility bills) are skyrocketed. Such was demand of IMF: "people should pay fair European price". Poor Ukrainian population was forced to pay "European price" with African level of wages:

 

The total amount of utility bills by July 1, 2016 is 35,57 billion UAH. For comparison, by July 1, 2015 it was only 2,9 billion UAH.

 

...and this was clearly the unbearable burden for nearly half of population. Fortunately, the state provides some subsidies (other words, these huge money are paid directly from state/regional budgets to utility companies). But there is one problem: the state is almost bankrupt and...

 

As result, the debt of Ukraine's state budget to municipal utilitiy companies by July 1, 2016 reached 25 billion UAH. By July 1, 2015, it was only 0,483 billion UAH.

 
Officially, the state budget deficit is equal 24,6 billion UAH. This is without the subsidy debt. If you calculate correctly, it turns out that the budget deficit of Ukraine is critical.
 
If the situation will continue to develop this way, it is likely that by the end of this year, the level of debts will reach more than 100 billion UAH and this time, the people will have to pay for housing and communal services from their own pockets... The attempt of subsidies was good, but it failed...
 
I'd like to see how this will end. IMHO this should lead to some kind of social explosion.

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"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#42
Time_Traveller

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Even if no-one cares anymore from time to time. I have a look on this thread to see what's happening in Ukraine.


I want to go ahead of Father Time with a scythe of my own.

H. G. Wells

#43
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Nobody cares about Ukraine anymore, i know. And still, i'll continue. Let this thread serve as my little personal blog.

 

I just found an Interesting statistics about Ukrainian utility bills: This is collapse. Debts for utility subsidies have grown by 52 times

 

Everyone knows they (utility bills) are skyrocketed. Such was demand of IMF: "people should pay fair European price". Poor Ukrainian population was forced to pay "European price" with African level of wages:

 

The total amount of utility bills by July 1, 2016 is 35,57 billion UAH. For comparison, by July 1, 2015 it was only 2,9 billion UAH.

 

...and this was clearly the unbearable burden for nearly half of population. Fortunately, the state provides some subsidies (other words, these huge money are paid directly from state/regional budgets to utility companies). But there is one problem: the state is almost bankrupt and...

 

As result, the debt of Ukraine's state budget to municipal utilitiy companies by July 1, 2016 reached 25 billion UAH. By July 1, 2015, it was only 0,483 billion UAH.

 
Officially, the state budget deficit is equal 24,6 billion UAH. This is without the subsidy debt. If you calculate correctly, it turns out that the budget deficit of Ukraine is critical.
 
If the situation will continue to develop this way, it is likely that by the end of this year, the level of debts will reach more than 100 billion UAH and this time, the people will have to pay for housing and communal services from their own pockets... The attempt of subsidies was good, but it failed...
 
I'd like to see how this will end. IMHO this should lead to some kind of social explosion.

 

 

It's fascinating to see what will happen to Ukraine over the next few months and years as well but will the country officially collapse?


I want to go ahead of Father Time with a scythe of my own.

H. G. Wells

#44
PhoenixRu

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It's fascinating to see what will happen to Ukraine over the next few months and years as well but will the country officially collapse?

 

It is really difficult to make any predictions about Ukraine. It depends on the sanity and professionalism level of their government (and this level doesn't look high). In the middle/long term, i'm almost sure in:

 

- Deindustrialization and archaization. Ukraine will become (already becoming) the poor agrarian country, with tiny islands of postindustrial society.

 

- Decline of population (from both highest mortality rate and mass emigration). Population already decreased from 52 (in 1991) to 42 million people. This trend will continue.

 

- Political instability and nationalism. It will not change anytime soon.

 

- Separatism. No only Russians, some western regions are also want to leave Ukraine and rejoin Hungary and Romania (yes, even Romania may be a promised land, when you live in Ukraine). The success or failure of this separatism depends of overall situation in Ukraine. IMHO 50/50. Except for Donbass, of course, which will not return to Ukraine and will continue to exist as unrecognized state (in fact Russian vassal).


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"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#45
caltrek

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How To Deal with an Aggressive, Yet Weak Power

 

Russia's aggressive foreign policy is an expression of weakness rather than strength, but we should still treat the country as a significant power. Russia is currently not very interested in dialogue, but we should flood it with offers of dialogue and engagement. Russia seeks to be unpredictable, but we should try all we can to make our relationship more stable, transparent and predictable. Russia has violated international law, but we should be demonstratively observant of international agreements and accords. Russia is acting like an adversary of the West, but we should still constantly look for ways to engage constructively.

 

 

I can perceive it only as evil satire, sorry... The truth is that all the Russian attempts of "constructive dialogue and engagement" since 1991 were systematically rejected and neglected by West: "not your business, guys, you're too weak to discuss serious issues". So it was when NATO expanded to the east, so it was before Georgian srisis, and so it was before Ukrainian crisis.

 

 

What I offered was a prescription for dealing with Russia, not a description.  With respect to Ukraine, I tend to agree that trying to incorporate it into the EU was over-reach.  A buffer state would have been my preference.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#46
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It's fascinating to see what will happen to Ukraine over the next few months and years as well but will the country officially collapse?

 

It is really difficult to make any predictions about Ukraine. It depends on the sanity and professionalism level of their government (and this level doesn't look high). In the middle/long term, i'm almost sure in:

 

- Deindustrialization and archaization. Ukraine will become (already becoming) the poor agrarian country, with tiny islands of postindustrial society.

 

- Decline of population (from both highest mortality rate and mass emigration). Population already decreased from 52 (in 1991) to 42 million people. This trend will continue.

 

- Political instability and nationalism. It will not change anytime soon.

 

- Separatism. No only Russians, some western regions are also want to leave Ukraine and rejoin Hungary and Romania (yes, even Romania may be a promised land, when you live in Ukraine). The success or failure of this separatism depends of overall situation in Ukraine. IMHO 50/50. Except for Donbass, of course, which will not return to Ukraine and will continue to exist as unrecognized state (in fact Russian vassal).

 

 

Hmm, I'll definitely keep an eye on that then.


I want to go ahead of Father Time with a scythe of my own.

H. G. Wells

#47
PhoenixRu

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This is just amazing:

 

Russian FSB foils terrorist attacks plotted by Ukrainian intel agents in Crimea

 

Russia's FSB Prevents Terrorist Attacks in Crimea Prepared by Ukrainian Intel

 

 

"The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation prevented terrorist acts in the Republic of Crimea, prepared by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's Main Intelligence Directorate," the FSB said in a statement.

 

As a result of search operations on the night from August 6 to August 7, 2016, a group of saboteurs was discovered near the town of Armyansk in the Crimean Republic. An FSB officer died as a result of a firefight during the arrest,

 

An agent network [created] by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's Main Intelligence Directorate has been eliminated. Ukrainian and Russian nationals involved in the preparation of terrorist acts have been detained and are confessing

 

The break-through attempts were covered with massive shelling from the neighboring state and the Ukrainian Armed Forces' armored vehicles. A Russian Defense Ministry serviceman was killed in the firefight

 

Now the state-sponsored terrorism? I'm not surprised at all, if this state is Ukraine.

 

Actually, i could post this 2-3 days ago, but firstly i wanted to see how will this whole story end. Yes, there were skirmishes, there were military helicopters flying here and there, but what exactly does it mean?.. If those infiltrators managed to escape back to Ukraine, it would be very difficult to prove something. Fortunately, now they're all caught and "giving their confessions".


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"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#48
PhoenixRu

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Putin about those captured Ukrainian terrorists in Crimea:

 


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"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#49
PhoenixRu

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...and meanwhile, the captured Ukrainian terrorists continue to confess in their sins  :lol: and i like the way how our FSB presenting this information: by tiny bits, each time forcing Ukrainian authorities to "change shoes on the run" and invent new and new, mutually contradicting excuses:

 

1) There were no any "terrorists", the whole story was invented by damn Moscals to discredit us...

2) Yes, terrorists existed, but they are not Ukrainians...

3) Yes, they're indeed Ukrainians, but not terrorists at all, just innocent civillians who were kidnapped in Ukraine and brought to Crimea...

4) Yes, Panov (the head of the group) really served in 37th brigade and came to the Crimea on his own, but you should not make premature conclusions...

 

...etc and so on. I'd like to see how this story ends. If this all will be confirmed, i don't think Russia can have any relations with state officially exposed as a sponsor of terrorism.


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"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#50
caltrek

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Dangerous Propaganda: Network Close To NATO Military Leader Fueled Ukraine Conflict

 

 

http://www.spiegel.d...-a-1104837.html

 

Introduction:

 

 

Photos show a man with broad shoulders, a wide gait and an even wider smile. The pictures of the general's motorcycle tours were recently made public on the online platform DC Leaks. Restraint, it seems, was never Breedlove's thing.

 

The photos are the entertaining part of an otherwise explosive collection of Breedlove's private email correspondence. Most of the 1,096 hacked emails date back to the dramatic 12 months of the Ukraine crisis after Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014. Thousands died in the skirmishes between Kiev's troops and Moscow-aligned separatists. More than 2 million civilians fled eastern Ukraine.

 

Russia supports the separatists with weapons, fighters and consultants. When people began calling for Washington to also massively intervene in 2015, the Ukraine conflict risked escalating into a war between East and West.

 

Early Concern

 

The newly leaked emails reveal a clandestine network of Western agitators around the NATO military chief, whose presence fueled the conflict in Ukraine. Many allies found in Breedlove's alarmist public statements about alleged large Russian troop movements cause for concern early on. Earlier this year, the general was assuring the world that US European Command was "deterring Russia now and preparing to fight and win if necessary."

image-1027659-breitwandaufmacher-snjh-10

 

Former NATO Supreme Allied Comander Europe Philip Breedlove at a press conference in 2015                                                      AFP


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#51
Pisiu369

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Dangerous Propaganda: Network Close To NATO Military Leader Fueled Ukraine Conflict

 

 

http://www.spiegel.d...-a-1104837.html

 

Introduction:

 

 

Photos show a man with broad shoulders, a wide gait and an even wider smile. The pictures of the general's motorcycle tours were recently made public on the online platform DC Leaks. Restraint, it seems, was never Breedlove's thing.

 

The photos are the entertaining part of an otherwise explosive collection of Breedlove's private email correspondence. Most of the 1,096 hacked emails date back to the dramatic 12 months of the Ukraine crisis after Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014. Thousands died in the skirmishes between Kiev's troops and Moscow-aligned separatists. More than 2 million civilians fled eastern Ukraine.

 

Russia supports the separatists with weapons, fighters and consultants. When people began calling for Washington to also massively intervene in 2015, the Ukraine conflict risked escalating into a war between East and West.

 

Early Concern

 

The newly leaked emails reveal a clandestine network of Western agitators around the NATO military chief, whose presence fueled the conflict in Ukraine. Many allies found in Breedlove's alarmist public statements about alleged large Russian troop movements cause for concern early on. Earlier this year, the general was assuring the world that US European Command was "deterring Russia now and preparing to fight and win if necessary."

image-1027659-breitwandaufmacher-snjh-10

 

Former NATO Supreme Allied Comander Europe Philip Breedlove at a press conference in 2015                                                      AFP

Ukraine is trying to start WW3



#52
caltrek

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Dangerous Desperation in Kiev

 

https://www.thenatio...e-new-cold-war/

 

Extract:

 

 

Driven by Kiev’s desperation—as the Ukrainian economy tanks, the IMF has again refused billions of dollars of assistance previously promised; Europe increasingly is withdrawing its support, unpersuaded by Kiev’s denial of having sent commandos to Russia’s Crimean peninsula; and Ukrainian President Poroshenko has been excluded from September’s G20 meeting—the government is frantically trying to regain unconditional Western support. (Even Vice President Biden, the overseer of Washington’s “Ukrainian project,” appears to be worried about Kiev’s recklessness.) Kiev will not or cannot negotiate an end to the Ukrainian civil/proxy war and thus seems determined to provoke a larger war with Russia to regain Western support; but its repeated claims that Putin is preparing a “new invasion” lack logic and no longer seem credible to Kiev’s former unconditional Western supporters.

The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#53
PhoenixRu

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Another victim of "Minsk agreements" :

 

BREAKING: LEGENDARY DPR COMMANDER “MOTOROLA” KILLED IN DONBASS

 

RIP Motorola... Russia will remember you & i hope your death will not pass unpunished.


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"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#54
PhoenixRu

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(Continuation about Motorola)

 

He wasn't saint, of course... far from this! And still, this post from twitter very well reflect my own opinion about him:

 

Spoiler

 

 

Cu6UuvHWEAAjKgF.jpg

 

Motorola was a "cheerful soldier" kind of guy, the resurrected Vasily Terkin*** of XXI century: small and funny at first glance, dangerous predator deep inside, the man who broke the vaunted Ukrainian "cyborgs" and destroyed the myth of "invincible Donetsk airport". But this is not the main thing...

 

The main thing is that he was the successful archetypal Russian man who broke out of dullness, boredom and alcoholism of provincial everyday life to do what he can do best: to attack and win, to play with death itself. Our people are tired to be forgotten and unnecessary, and so our new heroes coming out of nothingness, from a car wash...

 

A bit of brigand, of course... but a brigand in the name of father-tsar and mother-Russia, like Platov or Yermak in the past.

 

In short, the National Hero.

 

Pushkin would like Motorola. Pushkin liked people like him.

 

And we like him even more.

 

----------

 

**** The "cheerful soldier" hero of Russian literature


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"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#55
joe00uk

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Ha! Have you guys seen this? https://www.rt.com/i...ional-army-day/

 

...long live the "free" and "democratic" Ukraine...


"The Proletarians have nothing to lose but their chains." - Karl Marx
"A revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture, or doing embroidery; it cannot be so refined, so leisurely and gentleso temperate, kind, courteous, restrained and magnanimous. A revolution is an insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another."  - Mao Zedong


#56
PhoenixRu

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Ha! Have you guys seen this? https://www.rt.com/i...ional-army-day/

 

...long live the "free" and "democratic" Ukraine...

 

Oh, i could flood this thread with news like this one. Just type "украина факельное шествие" in YouTube and enjoy results... actually 2,5 years were more than enough for anyone (intellectually honest, i mean) to understand the nature of this new regime.

 

The only thing i glad is that they failed to create the stable and successful fascist state, instead their country slowly turning into some infernal shithole populated by indoctrinated beasts... here is typical news from this new Ukraine:

 

Ukrainian nationalists in Kharkiv beat children for Russian language

 

During the so-called Day of defenders of Ukraine, 14 October, the masked "Right Sector" members attacked the playground and started to beat children, only for what they were speaking in Russian.


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"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#57
BasilBerylium

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Russia

NUkE tHim

Spoiler



#58
PhoenixRu

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Donetsk, the capital of DPR today. The funeral of once unknown autowasherman Arsen Pavlov who will remain in Russian history under the nickname Motorola. This was his LAST victory, this tive over Ukrainian propaganda depicting him as insignificant petty thug:

 

CvI4QUYXYAAkSj4.jpg

 

CvI45N3WEAIVqYF.jpg

 

CvI4TkkWIAAXJuH.jpg


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"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#59
PhoenixRu

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Actually 2,5 years were more than enough for anyone (intellectually honest, i mean) to understand the nature of this new regime.

 

The only thing i glad is that they failed to create the stable and successful fascist state, instead their country slowly turning into some infernal shithole populated by indoctrinated beasts...

 

And, often, complete idiots. Here we can see Fuhrer Poroshenko proudly sitting under easily recognizable (for those who knows at least a bit of history) emblem with "Ukraine above all" slogan...

 

6024f938d7dec5b42e9956c00a3032c5_1477317

 

Fucking clowns... two years ago this could surprise or annoy me. Today this only makes me smile (a sad smile). "This is not idiocy, this is Ukraine".

 

And still, Ukraine is very interesting state. They were (and still are, despite their fierce denial) the cultural and mental twin of Russia. Thus, personally for me, modern Ukraine is interesting as social experiment & living example of how would Russian fascist state look like.


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"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#60
Futurist

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How To Deal with an Aggressive, Yet Weak Power

 

Russia's aggressive foreign policy is an expression of weakness rather than strength, but we should still treat the country as a significant power. Russia is currently not very interested in dialogue, but we should flood it with offers of dialogue and engagement. Russia seeks to be unpredictable, but we should try all we can to make our relationship more stable, transparent and predictable. Russia has violated international law, but we should be demonstratively observant of international agreements and accords. Russia is acting like an adversary of the West, but we should still constantly look for ways to engage constructively.

 

 

I can perceive it only as evil satire, sorry... The truth is that all the Russian attempts of "constructive dialogue and engagement" since 1991 were systematically rejected and neglected by West: "not your business, guys, you're too weak to discuss serious issues". So it was when NATO expanded to the east, so it was before Georgian srisis, and so it was before Ukrainian crisis.

What I offered was a prescription for dealing with Russia, not a description.  With respect to Ukraine, I tend to agree that trying to incorporate it into the EU was over-reach.  A buffer state would have been my preference.

Technically speaking, though, for the time being (probably for at least the next 20-25 years), Ukraine was merely offered a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement (DCFTA) with the European Union (as opposed to actual European Union membership).







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