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Hurricane Season


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#1
MarcZ

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Felt like starting this up as I feel we are going to have a really, really active hurricane season this year.

 

Currently this season is on record pace surpassing even the 2005 season (the most active in history) for amount of storms. The first storm of 2005 formed on June 8. Right now the NHC is predicting that we will probably have storm number three develop this weekend near Florida which will mean we will have had three storms already and the season is only 5 days in. 

 

Whether that means we will have really destructive storms like in 2005 (which had FOUR category five hurricanes) many of them impacting the United States and other countries remains to be seen. But we are off to a very active start.

 

https://weather.com/...vy-rain-jun2016


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#2
MarcZ

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Tropical Storm Colin forms

 

We have our third named storm of the season now. Just for comparison to 2005 which was the most active season in recorded history they had not yet had a named storm by this point. We are on record pace so far. Looks like this thing will hit Florida whether or not it will become a Cat 1 hurricane before that is not clear. 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/052135.shtml

 

Update: NOAA is saying this is the earliest third named storm ever in the basin.

 

https://twitter.com/...f_src=twsrc^tfw


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#3
Yuli Ban

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Hmm. I kinda hope we do have a year similar to 2005 in terms of number of storms, just so I can have something more to add to the Climate Change Library

That said, I don't want anything resembling the destruction of that year. Good god, man.

 

Story time!

 

The last tropical system I've experienced was 2012's Hurricane Isaac. It was one of those "fun" storms— it caused a few deaths, and a bit of destruction, but it didn't usher in the Apocalypse like Katrina, Andrew, or Sandy. 

It reminded me of 2008's Hurricane Gustav. I experienced both Gustav and Ike, and it was actually Ike that gave me my adoration of "cloudy, cold, and windy" days.

Isaac brought a lotta rain and wind, and it hung around for much longer than it needed to. Then again, I am a pluviophile. For me, it was the best.

 

Until the power went out. But even then, I enjoyed it.

 

Until the scare about flooding happened. I live less than a mile away from a river that apparently was going to flood, and we had to evacuate. Of course, that was just a scare. But it was inconvenient. 

 

I don't recall any storms from 2004 hitting us, I have to use my Google-fu for that one. I remember Ivan came dangerously close. Like, I could see the tropical clouds in the evening sky, and there was a bit of drizzle— and a tsunami of wind. 

 

 

Damn, it's always the I names, idn't it? I remember Hurricane Isidore back in 2002. That was a good time too. The year I was most excited for a hurricane, though, was actually 2010.

 

Quick! Does anyone remember what happened in 2010 that involved Louisiana? It was something that made the hurricane season that year an absolute, unmitigated nightmare waiting to happen. 

To those who guessed right, congratulations. To those who are still wracking your brains, that was the year of the BP Oil Catastrophe, the Deepwater Horizon Spill, in the Gulf of Mexico. The worst environmental disaster in history, the effects of which are still being felt right now. It was basically one long "And Then It Got Worse" situation from April to June, and the worst possible thing to happen happened: hurricane season began. And wouldn't you know it, the first storm of the season was both almost a major hurricane, and slipped into the goddamn Gulf. If there is a God, he was being a sadistic arseknob that summer. Prolly had his name legally changed to Murphy for a while.

 

Luckily, we didn't get anything to really mess up the spill like we thought would happen.

 

So yeah, I have a history with hurricane seasons.

 

So what's the worst that can happen this year (Are ya listenin', Murphy)?

 

 

Total destruction of the Big Gulf 5: Galveston, Houston, New Orleans, Tampa, and Miami. A new East Coast super-storm that devastates everything from Florida all the way up to Maine. 

 

We get another Hurricane Patricia, this time in the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico. Imagine that: a category 5 (perhaps even category 6) super hurricane with winds of 220 mph and a barometric pressure of 866 millibars exploding against the US or Mexican coastline. That would be the world's biggest wake-up call in a long time, considering we haven't had a major hurricane make landfall since '05.


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#4
Yuli Ban

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By the way, here's a comparison between Katrina and Patricia.
 
CSBk00qUYAAKwgc.jpg
 
Patricia was basically the size of Mexico.
 
The strongest hurricane in history, occurring during the hottest October in history, during the hottest year in history, with one of the strongest El Niños in history. Global warming = not even once.
 
Ooh! Here's the warning for Hurricane Katrina. It's cryptically known as "The Bulletin" and it's one of the most nightmarish things I've ever read. It's dystopian in its wording, and the awesome, awful, gut-wrenching truth was: it's real. It's not fictional. It wasn't some promotion for a thriller.
It was real.
 
fhazqa1.jpg


When scientists working for a government agency say the words "human suffering will be incredible by modern standards", you know you're in for some raw hell.


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Nobody's gonna take my drone, I'm gonna fly miles far too high!
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#5
Yuli Ban

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Oh, by the way...
 

Tropical Storm Colin Becomes Earliest “C” Storm in Atlantic History

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression 3 to Tropical Storm Colin in a special update at 5:30 PM EDT Sunday, June 5--making some history along the way. Never before have we been tracking the Atlantic’s third named storm of a calendar year this early in the year. As noted in a weather.com article, there have been two other “C” storms as early as June since current naming practices began in the 1950s: Hurricane Chris (which began as a named subtropical storm on June 18, 2012) and Tropical Storm Candy (June 23, 1968). Going all the way back to 1851, the previous earliest appearance of the season’s third storm was June 12, 1887, although some early-season storms were undoubtedly missed during the pre-satellite era.

As of 8 PM EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Colin was located in the south central Gulf of Mexico at 23.4°N, 87.8°W, or about 460 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida. Colin is a minimal tropical storm, with top sustained winds of just 40 mph, and only modest further strengthening is expected before Colin approaches the northwest Gulf Coast of the Florida peninsula on Monday evening. The well-defined southwesterly flow steering Colin will take it into the Atlantic and on a track paralleling the southeast U.S. coast on Tuesday, where models suggest it will maintain or regain tropical storm strength, especially southeast of North Carolina. Update: At 11:00 PM EDT Sunday, NHC placed the southeast U.S. coast from Sebastian Inlet, FL, to Altamaha Sound, GA, under a tropical storm warning, with a tropical storm watch extending northward from the warning area to the South Santee River, SC. A tropical storm warning remains in effect on the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Englewood.

 

 

Strange times... strange days... what in the world is going on?

 

It really makes you wonder...


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#6
Yuli Ban

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So I'm reading into Hurricane Patricia, and I discovered that it may very well be the strongest storm ever observed on Earth. There have probably been stronger in history, but we weren't there to record them, or we didn't have the ability to record them. Imagine something like this in the Atlantic, coming for the United States.
 
Patricia breaks the 200mph mark, 880mb. Forecast to STRENGTHEN in the next 12 hours.
 
Chel_of_the_sea
205 mph. SUSTAINED. That is a seven-mile-wide EF5 tornado, maintaining itself for more than a day.
Assuming the pressure has continued to drop at a comparable rate since Recon departed (and given the continuing-to-improve satellite presentation, I see no reason to think it hasn't), this is probably the strongest hurricane ever observed. Here's the write-up I did for the /r/news thread:
For those of you following along who aren't well-versed with hurricane intensity, this is not only the strongest Pacific storm, it may very well be the strongest hurricane ever on Earth. As of right now, the winds are 200 mph and the pressure is 880 mb (lower pressure = stronger storm). Usually, most intense storms are ranked by pressure, and currently Patricia is the strongest ever in the Western Hemisphere (the previous record holder was Hurricane Wilma, in the crazy 2005 season in the Atlantic). Worldwide, she ranks fifth as of this writing, behind four Western Pacific Typhoons.
However, the 880 mb was the final measurement of a Hurricane Hunter plane just finishing its mission, and satellite imagery suggests Patricia is still strengthening at a pretty good clip. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center, as of this writing, also indicates continued strengthening for the next 12 hours. At the rate the pressure was dropping at the end of the Hurricane Hunter mission, the pressure would now be in the upper 860s, which would break the previous record set by Typhoon Tip (870).
To give you a sense of how totally insane this is, if this storm went over your head, the pressure would drop so fastyour ears would pop - the pressure in the eye isn't much higher than the pressure inside the cabin of a cruising aircraft. The winds - 200 mph and climbing - are those of an EF5 tornado, except they're distributed across an eyewall seven miles across and sustained for a period of many, many hours. The storm is sucking up so much warm air that the plane was recording temperatures in the mid-80s at flight-level; under a normal temperature profile this wouldn't happen until the surface was at 130+ degrees.
TL;DR: This is, very possibly, the strongest storm ever observed on Earth.
 
 
I did a little more digging and discovered that the maximum recorded sustained windspeeds for Hurricane Satania over here was actually 215 miles per hour, with wind gusts reaching 260 miles per hour. I thought I was exaggerating with that 220 mph joke a few posts ago, but goddamn.
 
The strongest tornado in human history had a wind speed of 318 miles per hour. This was within 60 miles per hour of that mess.
 
 
So let's recap: 2016 is already hotter than 2015. We're shifting from El Niño to La Niña, which always means "more hurricanes in the Atlantic." The most powerful storm in history just occurred. Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are expected to reach 90° F easily.

 

La Niña may fuel most active season in years

Experts are calling for an above-normal hurricane season this year with 14 named storms forecast for the Atlantic basin.
Of those, eight are predicted to become hurricanes and four are predicted to become major hurricanes.
Due to a combination of factors, this season is expected to be more active than any season in the past three years. Experts warn that those living along the Atlantic coast should be on alert.
"During the early part of the season, of course, we look off the Southeast coast of the United States, where we've already had one with Bonnie, but we also look in the Gulf of Mexico especially the northwestern portion of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico," AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
"Those are two areas that we're watching very closely and those are the prime areas," Kottlowski said.

ENSOTypicalLaNina_610.jpg?itok=k9nrC752


Ya think we're in for a bad time?


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#7
MarcZ

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Hurricane Patricia while very strong landed in an area where it didn't do a lot of damage quite frankly. 

 

As for this season I am expecting another hyperactive 2005 or at least 2010 type season. I think we may exhaust the hurricane names again. There is very little wind shear in the Atlantic this year as La Nina is coming into play. Also it is going to be a very hot year which leads me to believe there will be a lot of major hurricanes as we get going into July. I predict Florida's luck with major hurricanes is probably going to end this year. 



#8
Yuli Ban

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For those who don't remember the 2005 season, I'll preface this rambling with this: God DAMN.

 

It was unlike anything we've ever seen before or since. There's a joke floating around New Orleans (no pun intended) that the reason we haven't seen any major storm landfalls since then (with the arguable exception of Sandy) is because 2005 "took 'em all". It was a solid 10 years of hurricane madness wrapped up into one chaotic year.

 

https://en.wikipedia...urricane_season

 

 

So let's talk about this bullcrap. There are four friggin' things that blow my fucking mind here.

 

  1. Katrina. Like, holy shit. Everyone down here remembers it; we have PTSD from it; it's just not good times. And the scale of its devastation is unlike anything you've ever seen in the Western world. Nearly 2,000 people dead and well over $100 billion in damage? When we talk about "deadly tropical systems", we're talking about 3 or 4 deaths. Maybe upwards of 20 if the storm is particularly bad. But 2,000?! In America, that isn't just unheard of; that's downright apocalyptic. You'd have to go back to the 1900 Galveston hurricane for anything like that, and that's just it: that was 1900. How could something like it happen in the modern age?
  2. Wilma. God wasn't fuckin' around, man. God got high off our greenhouse gases (hence why we call them greenhouse gases, eh?) and really let it all out with this one. Hurricane Patricia surpassed Wilma in raw windspeed, but her pressure didn't quite cut it. Thus, Wilma still holds the record for "lowest pressure ever recorded in a hurricane" and thus "most intense hurricane in recorded history."
  3. Alpha. What kind of a fucking name is Alpha?! Oh... we... we retired all the typical names in the season...?...... WHAT?! When we got Tropical Storm Alpha, I tell you the whole goddamn world was shocked. So now we had to use the Greek names. As it happened, we actually had a subtropical storm named Alpha... back in 1972... but that doesn't count.
  4. The Unnamed Storm. Or does it? So here's the fuckiest of all fucks that fuck with me. The 2005 season was so fucking active that there was actually a tropical storm we didn't even see. Technically we did track it, but we wrote it off. It wasn't until well after the fact that we realized "Oh, wait, we fuck't up. Here's another storm." How does that even happen???
  5. Zeta. And of course it's called "Zeta". I mean goddamn, this one formed in December and didn't die until January 2006. What sense does that make, huh?! The 2005 season lasted until 2006! Fuck. Hey, hey, what would happen if we ran out of Greek names and another storm formed? What happens then? We don't know.

 

"Hey Yuli, you said four things."

 

Exactly. Just like in 2005, you can never expect initial statements to be right. What the actual fuck happened in 2005? It wasn't just all the major hurricanes happening pretty much all at once, nor was it the number of landfalls; it was the sheer number of storms altogether.

 

Though I did have fun with Cindy. I remember making mock tropical updates and all that. It was supposed to be a powerful tropical storm, with winds of 70 miles per hour. In fact, it was a category 1 hurricane. Huh.


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#9
MarcZ

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2005 pretty much holds every single record in the Atlantic hurricane basin. Although there are a few it doesn't have. Like the earliest third named storm which belongs to this season, or even the earliest hurricane. However. 2005 had FOUR category five hurricanes which may never be surpassed several season have had 2 category 5's but 4 is unheard of. I'm not sure any other basin has had four category five hurricanes in one year either?



#10
Yuli Ban

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We're still off topic, but I do wish to point to an unsettling parallel. 

 

2005's season was catastrophic, obviously, and it had the most powerful hurricane in history (in terms of pressure). There's been a major lull ever since then in terms of major hurricane landfalls. We've had minor/moderate hurricane landfalls; I've been through two of them (as aforementioned, Gustav in 2008 and Isaac in 2012), and one of America's worst hurricanes occurred during this time as well (Superstorm Sandy). Nevertheless, there were no major storms, that is, category 3 or higher, that made landfall.

 

 

To any USicans with a passing interest in meteorology, does that remind you of anything?

 

On May 3, 1999, we saw one of the worst tornado outbreaks in history. It's most famous for giving us the behemoth that is the Bridge-Creek Moore tornado, which had the highest winds ever recorded on Earth— 301 miles per hour (484 kilometers per hour). That caused a billion dollars in damage, which was unprecedented (except if you account for inflation; then a tornado from 1896 held the record even after it). This F5 monstrosity of nature didn't seem earthly, and it resides at the very highest end of the scale.

 

Now let there be 8 years with absolutely no F5 tornados. Not until 2007, which gave us the Greensburg tornado. Even then, the scale had been upgraded, so it was an 'EF5'. EF5s don't need anywhere near as high of windspeeds as F5s did. And even then we weren't seeing too many F5s afterwards. Still, the drought ended.

 

Until 2011. 2011 was... strange. We had a very deadly super outbreak in April, and then an excessively deadly tornado in May. It shocked people, and the number of tornado fatalities in 2011 resembled the early 20th century.

 

So my question is: are we in for something like that in regards to hurricanes? Was Superstorm Sandy was our "Greensburg" moment, getting us fattened for the tropical butchery that lies ahead?

 

Let's hope it's not 2016 or 2017.


Nobody's gonna take my drone, I'm gonna fly miles far too high!
Nobody gonna beat my drone, it's gonna shoot into the sky!

#11
MarcZ

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Can't predict these things. We don't have long enough meteorological records to determine the frequency of these mass outbreaks of tornadoes or hurricanes. We can say that there was a very destructive tornado outbreak in the 1970s (Super Outbreak) and in 2011 so maybe they have a frequency of every 40 years??? 



#12
MarcZ

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New area of interest for tropical development near Florida according to the NHC not looking like this will become the D storm though. 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa....in=atlc&fdays=2



#13
joe00uk

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Tropical Storm Danielle forms

 

two_atl_0d0.png?201140


"The Proletarians have nothing to lose but their chains." - Karl Marx
"A revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture, or doing embroidery; it cannot be so refined, so leisurely and gentleso temperate, kind, courteous, restrained and magnanimous. A revolution is an insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another."  - Mao Zedong


#14
Yuli Ban

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Danielle was born on its deathbed. Still worrying that we've already gotten to the D storm, but I'm not sure I can be too worried if they form in the most inhospitable areas.


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#15
Liyz

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Any update to this? I read that this year's hurricane season will be just average. Why do you assume to know more than the experts? (Not being accusational, but do you know something others don't?)

#16
kjaggard

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I'm thinking that as we transition from el nino to la nina we are likely to see a longer storm season if not nessecarily heavy activity. It's quite possible we will have heavier activity later in the season, and we may get a couple big ones after the usual end of the season. And it looks like this is going to be a harsh winter on top of though whether that is a heavy snowfall winter or a bitter cold winter I don't know for sure.


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#17
Yuli Ban

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Tropical Storm Earl Forms in the Caribbean; Hurricane Watches Issued

map_tropprjpath05_ltst_5nhato_enus_650x3


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#18
tierbook

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I feel like we should count Alex as part of last years hurricane season seeing as it came about in January.



#19
Yuli Ban

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That doesn't make much sense, though. Hurricane season may only last from June to November, but it's still part of a specific year. Sort of like how tornado season technically lasts from April to June; just because a tornado outbreak happens in January doesn't mean it's part of the previous year's season. Nor does a tornado outbreak in December mean it's part of next year's season.


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#20
tierbook

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That doesn't make much sense, though. Hurricane season may only last from June to November, but it's still part of a specific year. Sort of like how tornado season technically lasts from April to June; just because a tornado outbreak happens in January doesn't mean it's part of the previous year's season. Nor does a tornado outbreak in December mean it's part of next year's season.

True but remember back in 2005 when Zeta was in january of 2006






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