Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!

These ads will disappear if you register on the forum

Photo

Hurricane Season


  • Please log in to reply
437 replies to this topic

#41
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Nadsat Brat

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,148 posts
  • LocationAnur Margidda

BREAKING: HURRICANE MATTHEW MAY BE ABOUT TO BECOME THE COSTLIEST NATURAL DISASTER IN HISTORY

 

Could surpass the 2011 Japanese Earthquake as some models have almost $250 billion dollars worth of property at risk. Almost certainly will be more destructive than Katrina the current costliest hurricane in the United States and definitely more destructive than 1992's Andrew currently the most destructive storm in Florida history.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/...campaign=buffer

 

Also the death toll is rising rapidly in Haiti and more than 136 people are confirmed to have died there.

636112727260256186-Screen-Shot-2016-10-0


Nobody's gonna take my drone, I'm gonna fly miles far too high!
Nobody gonna beat my drone, it's gonna shoot into the sky!

#42
TranscendingGod

TranscendingGod

    2020's the decade of our reckoning

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,554 posts
  • LocationGeorgia
It is a really bad thing that a poor country like Haiti takes the brunt of the storm.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#43
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,220 posts

Changes In Huricanes

 

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/changes-hurricanes

 

Abstract:

 

 

The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm....

 

There has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high-quality satellite data are available.,,,, These include measures of intensity, frequency, and duration as well as the number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms. The ability to assess longer-term trends in hurricane activity is limited by the quality of available data. The historic record of Atlantic hurricanes dates back to the mid-1800s, and indicates other decades of high activity. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the record prior to the satellite era (early 1970s), and the further back in time one goes, the more uncertain the record becomes.,

 

The recent increases in activity are linked, in part, to higher sea surface temperatures in the region that Atlantic hurricanes form in and move through. Numerous factors have been shown to influence these local sea surface temperatures, including natural variability, human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases, and particulate pollution. Quantifying the relative contributions of natural and human-caused factors is an active focus of research. Some studies suggest that natural variability, which includes the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, is the dominant cause of the warming trend in the Atlantic since the 1970s,,, while others argue that human-caused heat-trapping gases and particulate pollution are more important.,

Figure 2.23: Observed Trends in Hurricane Power DissipationFigure-2.23-small.jpg

 

Of related interest:

 

https://www.theguard...-sea-level-rise


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#44
MarcZ

MarcZ

    Chief Flying Car Critic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,241 posts
  • LocationCanada

And why are they starting the data set since the 1980s which was at a low cycle in North Atlantic hurricane activity. Sounds to me like chart junk or are trying to force a conclusion. We have records going back to the 1851 and if you look at the 20th century as a whole activity has actually been on the decline when it comes to major hurricanes, and major hurricane landfalls. The explanation of "unreliable data" is far from convincing.

 

http://www.forbes.co...t/#7e0df9847c5c

 

Oh and by the way so far this decade we have not had a single major hurricane strike on the United States. A big fat zero, quietest decade in hurricane activity on record so far unless 2017, 2018, and 2019 are all hyper crazy. 



#45
MarcZ

MarcZ

    Chief Flying Car Critic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,241 posts
  • LocationCanada

Please see: https://www.wundergr...ebster.asp?MR=1



#46
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Nadsat Brat

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,148 posts
  • LocationAnur Margidda

Hurricane Matthew toll in Haiti rises to 1,000, dead buried in mass graves

Haiti started burying some of its dead in mass graves in the wake of Hurricane Matthew, a government official said on Sunday, as cholera spread in the devastated southwest and the death toll from the storm rose to 1,000 people.
The powerful hurricane, the fiercest Caribbean storm in nearly a decade, slammed into Haiti on Tuesday with 145 mile-per-hour (233 kph) winds and torrential rains that left 1.4 million people in need of humanitarian assistance, the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said.
A Reuters tally of numbers from local officials showed that 1,000 people were killed by the storm in Haiti, which has a population of about 10 million and is the poorest country in the Americas.
The official death toll from the central civil protection agency is 336, a slower count because officials must visit each village to confirm the numbers.
Authorities had to start burying the dead in mass graves in Jeremie because the bodies were starting to decompose, said Kedner Frenel, the most senior central government official in the Grand'Anse region on Haiti's western peninsula.
Frenel said 522 people were killed in Grand'Anse alone. A tally of deaths reported by mayors from 15 of 18 municipalities in Sud Department on the south side of the peninsula showed 386 people there. In the rest of the country, 92 people were killed, the same tally showed.
Frenel said there was great concern about cholera spreading, and that authorities were focused on getting water, food and medication to the thousands of people living in shelters.


Nobody's gonna take my drone, I'm gonna fly miles far too high!
Nobody gonna beat my drone, it's gonna shoot into the sky!

#47
TranscendingGod

TranscendingGod

    2020's the decade of our reckoning

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,554 posts
  • LocationGeorgia

Horrible new Yuli.


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#48
Raklian

Raklian

    An Immortal In The Making

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,512 posts
  • LocationRaleigh, NC

Horrible new Yuli.

 

What makeover did Yuli just have and how is he horrible? :)


  • TranscendingGod likes this
What are you without the sum of your parts?

#49
Erowind

Erowind

    Psychonaut, Aspiring Mathematician and Anarchist

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 529 posts
  • LocationInside some convoluted formula I don't actually understand.
Yampy nadsat brats these days. Back when you er all just babs, we'd give wenches rocks then take em out to have a snap with some tea and pikelets. Now all you see are these slummocking chavs harassing poor folk on the streets. /\ This is what I thought of when you mentioned Yuli a I realized what was above his name. For context: I know 3 people from the Westmidlands UK and I have picked up on their slang over the years. Yampy = mad/insane Bab = baby/infant Wenches = you can guess this one Rocks = Candy Snap = a meal Pikelets = Crumpet Slummocking = means to walk without proper posture and laze about. It could also mean to roll on the ground. Chav = Google if you don't know already.

Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.


#50
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,220 posts

A Climate Change Storm?

 

http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/37910-now-every-storm-is-a-climate-change-storm

 

 

Extract:

 

As it makes landfall in Florida, Matthew has also broken the record for the longest lived hurricane of its strength in the eastern Caribbean, and it's only hurricane on record to have ever made landfall north of Miami along the East coast of Florida in October….

 

A warmer ocean and a warmer atmosphere means that there's more energy in the ocean and more energy in the atmosphere, and more energy in the ocean and in the atmosphere means more fuel for smaller tropical depressions to quickly grow into powerful superstorms, like Matthew did…

 

Normally, when a hurricane hits the Caribbean, it stirs up cooler waters from deep below the surface, those cooler waters help to weaken the storm and dissipate some of its energy before it makes landfall.

 

With those deeper waters now holding 15 percent more warmth than they held two decades ago, there's less cool water that can be stirred to the surface to break up the storms energy, instead, now there's much warmer water being brought to the surface that feeds the hurricane.

2016_1006dt.jpg

(Photo: NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center; Edited: LW / TO)


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#51
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,220 posts

 

 

And why are they starting the data set since the 1980s

 

As explained in the link I cited earlier ad below.

 

http://nca2014.globa...nges-hurricanes

 

 

 

There has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high-quality satellite data are available

 

 

From MarcZ:

 

 

We have records going back to the 1851

Not "high-quality satellite data."


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#52
tierbook

tierbook

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,196 posts
  • LocationCharleston sc

Would El Nino explain most of that? I think it's still going isn't it? Ignoring that this hurricane pulled either a Floyd or a Hugo depending on how you want to look at it, just about a week later than they occured.



#53
MarcZ

MarcZ

    Chief Flying Car Critic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,241 posts
  • LocationCanada

BREAKING: Hurricane Nicole becomes a Category 4 expected to become the first Category 4 hurricane to ever make landfall on the island of Bermuda.

 

This is going to get ugly.

 

https://weather.com/...tlantic-bermuda



#54
caltrek

caltrek

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,220 posts

I know this thread is about the Atlantic hurricane season, but since no thread has been started on the Pacific, I thought I would post this story here:

 

Hurricane-level Winds Possible in Pacific Northwest

 

http://www.cnn.com/2...torm/index.html

 

 

(CNN)Brace yourself, Pacific Northwest. What's left of a typhoon, which has made its way across the ocean, is expected to pummel parts of Oregon and Washington over the next several days...

 

"Coastal Washington, Oregon and the interior mountain ranges will feel the brunt of the strongest winds, possibly reaching hurricane strength (which is 74+ mph) by Saturday evening," said CNN meteorologist, Derek Van Dam.

 

"Damaging winds will still be possible across the Seattle metro region, but will experience gusts between 50 to 60 miles per hour."
 
Seattle began hunkering down for the double barrel of storms, by shutting its parks, preparing emergency resources and opening more slots at its homeless shelters.
The possibility that the Saturday storm could be "one of the severest weather events that we've ever had has caused us to step up our response significantly," said Seattle Mayor Ed Murray in a press conference Thursday.

 

 

 

161013124913-pacific-northwest-wind-stor


  • Yuli Ban likes this

The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#55
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Nadsat Brat

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,148 posts
  • LocationAnur Margidda

Well aren't we off to a flying start.

 

Tropical storms likely to form in Gulf, Atlantic

Two separate tropical storms are likely to form in Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic over the next couple of days, the National Hurricane Center said.
 
A tropical system that's drenching Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is being watched for development and has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical storm or depression in the Gulf within the next two days.
 
Residents along the Gulf Coast should prepare for possible flooding downpours, rough seas and locally damaging winds from the storm later this week, AccuWeather said.
 
Landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast would likely be around Wednesday or Thursday, according to Accuweather.


  • Sciencerocks likes this
Nobody's gonna take my drone, I'm gonna fly miles far too high!
Nobody gonna beat my drone, it's gonna shoot into the sky!

#56
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Nadsat Brat

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,148 posts
  • LocationAnur Margidda

Remember this time last week when I was in the middle of a tropical storm? Fun times.


  • Sciencerocks likes this
Nobody's gonna take my drone, I'm gonna fly miles far too high!
Nobody gonna beat my drone, it's gonna shoot into the sky!

#57
Sciencerocks

Sciencerocks

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,750 posts

Dora made it to 80 knots a few days ago but is now gone as it moved into cooler water.

 

Some of the models show something off the cape verdes in the next couple of weeks and maybe another Eastern pacific system.


To follow my work on tropical cyclones


#58
Sciencerocks

Sciencerocks

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,750 posts

As for eastern pacific system

 

500 PM PDT Wed Jun 28 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
However, environmental conditions have become less conducive for
much additional development while the system moves west-
northwestward early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


To follow my work on tropical cyclones


#59
Sciencerocks

Sciencerocks

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,750 posts

Here is some loops of Dora

 

O8Fgs2.gif

 

vNA3RM.gif


To follow my work on tropical cyclones


#60
Sciencerocks

Sciencerocks

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,750 posts

Watching a eastern Atlantic system

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020501
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 550 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the next several days
while it moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

 

Some of the models like the Gfs have been showing this becoming a hurricane within the next 7-9 days heading towards the east coast.


To follow my work on tropical cyclones





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users