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Clashes between Kurzweil and Future timeline

ray kurzweil singularity technology computers

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6 replies to this topic

#1
Colonel O'Neil

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There is a vast discrepancy between the Kurzweilian trend of thought and that represented by the future timeline. Kurzweil predicts that the limit to computation will be reached by the end of the century. In his book, the singularity is near, he gives clear reasoning to support this argument. The futuretimeline seems to be way off-citing this date to be approximately 4000 years from now. What gives? We all know Kurzweil is the undisputed leader in the field of futurology. So why has he been ignored? Plus on a side note: who thinks that the people who are under 50 by 2025 will have a great chance of living forever. I bet we'll still be talking about the future in a hundred years...

The art of forgetting is inherent in human minds; the art of being forgotten  is the normal fate of knowing. We as futurists don't accept that. In the panels of the Universe, we alone will remain standing; remain unforgotten.


#2
mic of orion

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I see another stargete fan : As to Kurzwell, you got me there, never read any of his books, sorry. (btw few os us went to see him live when he was here in london) As to living forever, must admit i am great optimist in concept of living forever. How soon would humans really be able to say they are imortal, your guess is as good as any IMHO, but i do hope its rather sooner than later.
It's dangerous to be right, when your government is wrong.
They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

#3
wjfox

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Depends what you mean by the "limit to computation".

#4
Time_Traveller

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I've never read any of Kurzwell's Books and i'll be 48 in 2025, i don't think i'll live forever and i dowt this will be achieveable until a couple of thousands of years.
I want to go ahead of Father Time with a scythe of my own.

H. G. Wells

#5
wjfox

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i dowt this will be achieveable until a couple of thousands of years.


We already have an excellent knowledge of what causes aging, and scientists have extended the lifespans of mice, worms and flies.

We've also decoded the human genome and there's exponential progress being made with medicine in general.

Why would it take thousands of years to find suitable treatments for humans?
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#6
wekele0

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I've never read any of Kurzwell's Books and i'll be 48 in 2025, i don't think i'll live forever and i dowt this will be achieveable until a couple of thousands of years.


I can understand if it takes maybe a few hundred years for true immortality to become realized, but thousands of years? Humanity would truly have to be quite stagnant to take even 1,000 years from now. And remember the Human Genome Project? A few critics said it would take hundreds of years for it to be complete, but it took merely a decade. Now, I'm not saying that everything is going to happen quite as quick as the timeline suggests; Just like we have some technologies that have changed very little from the 60's, we will probably still have some things from today around in the 2050's, though just like the advent of home computers, something is most likely going to adjust our lens of perspective between now and then.
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#7
sirhotalot

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Kurzweils timeline is very optimistic. I enjoy his books and his theories though, and hope he's correct. As for population growth, the UN has done studies that show it will cap out at about 9 billion, then start to decline, then maybe bounce back to about 9 billion again. Affluence is inversely related to fertility so people will have far less children as living conditions improve.

Edited by sirhotalot, 25 January 2012 - 12:47 AM.






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