256 replies to this topic

[caltrek]

Clinton's 'Moscow Spring' Ended as Putin Returned to Power

 

https://www.yahoo.co...ion.html?ref=gs

 

Introduction:

 

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton basked in a diplomatic "Moscow Spring," seizing on Vladimir Putin's break from the presidency to help seal a nuclear arms-control treaty and secure Russia's acquiescence to a NATO-led military intervention in Libya. But when Putin returned to the top job, things changed.

 

Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, has vowed to stand up to Putin if elected, drawing on her four years of ups and downs as the public face of President Barack Obama's first-term "reset" with Russia. By comparison, her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, has rung alarm bells in Washington and Europe with his overtures to the authoritarian Russian leader.

 

But Clinton's wrangles with Russia led to mixed results. And her fortunes dipped dramatically after Putin replaced Dmitry Medvedev as president in May 2012.

 

Just weeks later, Russia outmaneuvered her in negotiations over a complicated Syria peace plan, dealing her what was arguably her worst diplomatic defeat. While Clinton hailed it as a triumph, the war only escalated. And while her aides still insist she came out on top, the blueprint effectively gave Syria's Moscow-backed president, Bashar Assad, a veto over any transition government, hampering all mediation efforts still.

 

"There is no doubt that when Putin came back in and said he was going to be president, that did change the relationship," Clinton said in a Democratic debate last year. "We have to stand up to his bullying and specifically, in Syria it is important."

Clinton's history with Russia is significant given the surprising role Russia has played in the U.S. presidential campaign...

 

 

Arguably, this could have gone in the U.S. presidential election thread.  I decided to create a separate thread because this also involves the future of Russia. The topic is also big enough and important enough that I think it deserves its own thread.

 

Given past discussion touching on this topic, I would ask that people please be nice.  Offering an opinion is desired, but insults and colorful adjectives with no facts, links, or other evidence is a form of spam.  Please try to be constructive and respective of the opinions of others instead of trolling or otherwise trying to start a flame war. 

 

Having said that, I think that I will now duck for cover so as not to get caught in the cross fire that might follow this post.

 

   

[PhoenixRu]

Everyone knows my opinion, but here is it again (without trolling and colorful words): the future of US - Russian relations is very grim. For some deep historical and socio-cultural reasons USA (both elite and common people) are just incapable to see Russians as equals or recognize their political subjectivity. Any Russian attempt to behave as independent power (even not aimed against USA) will be automatically considered as audacious and hostile challenge to This Country.

 

This will not change with new names of US or Russian presidents. Actually, there are only two real ways to change the situation.

 

1) Russia will really lose the political subjectivity & will really become the US vassal, just like Poland or Ukraine but bigger.

 

2) Russia will win a direct military clash with USA. Not necessarily the World War 3, the big and bloody local conflict is more than enough. The key factor here are thousands and thousands of American corpses and even more veterans who will return from this war alive, with scary war tales. This will deeply affect the public opinion, just as it happened to Germans after 1945.

[TranscendingGod]

Phoenix... "for some deep historical and socio-cultural reasons USA (both elite and common people) are just incapable to see Russians as equals or recognize their political subjectivity".

 

That is simply not true. Where do you get these ideas from? If we make a poll on this forum of whether we Americans see Russians as less than equals then i can guarantee you that your misguided perceptions will be false. 

 

I mean look at it this way. How many times have you seen people on this forum bashing Russians and yet every time i see a post of yours on here it is always about how it is our "Americans" fault that things are the way they are. Seems like the inordinate obsession is on your behalf.

[kjaggard]

Everyone knows my opinion, but here is it again (without trolling and colorful words): the future of US - Russian Relations is very grim. For some deep historical and socio-cultural reasons USA (both elite and common people) are just incapable to see Russians as equals or recognize their political subjectivity. Any Russian attempt to behave as intedependent power (even not aimed against USA) will be automatically considered as audacious and hostile challenge to This Country.

 

This will not change with new names of US or Russian presidents. Actually, there are only two real ways to change the situation.

 

1) Russia will really lose the political subjectivity & will really become the US vassal, just like Poland or Ukraine but bigger.

 

2) Russia will win a direct military clash with USA. Not necessarily the World War 3, the big and bloody local conflict is more than enough. The key factor here are thousands and thousands of American corpses and even more veterans who will return from this war alive, with scary war tales. This will deeply affect the public opinion, just as it happened to Germans after 1945.

you are entirely too pessimistic, and perhaps surrounded by too many people preaching a persecution narrative.

 

If you want to know what the US common people think of russia, they don't. The country and the people of Russian exist in the past tense for American, but they got left behind when the cold war ended. It's a "used to be" empire, that are now just like any other country that the common person doesn't spend time worrying about or thinking about over much.

 

Putin invades Ukraine, most people see it as somebody who worked in that 'long ago time' when russia was part of a large empire, doing the things that remind him of his glory days, but ultimately it doesn't matter to the common american. In fact for the most part, the only US people acting like you suggest are our own people who worked 'long ago time' when the USSR was a worthy advercary and powerful empire, and it reminds them of the glory days of playing spies and intimidation games with one another.

 

Frankly it's like watching rival football teams from highschool meeting at a class reunion 20 years after we all left school.

 

the US public generally only bothers thinking of russians as different from the french or germans when a report goes up about how offended they are that the patriotic russian woman in a video game has some characteristics that imply she may be a lesbian, but it never says it for sure, yet russian players are offended and dislike the character because of the possibility. and it gets mostly a cultural exasperated eye roll, equated to the backward thinking of our own lunatic religious anti-gay communities. and then it's forgotten a week later.

[PhoenixRu]

=== OK, nothing. I explained my opinion and that's enough === 

[Mike the average]

Part of the problem is too many americans not caring.
Clinton or Trump will continue to carry out 5 times as much '100% LEGIT' military operations abroad than Putin will.

[kjaggard]

As for the future of US - Russian relations.

 

i suppose that has more to do with the course of things with China- US rlations in the future, and Trade agreements like TPP, TISA, and I think the other one is TTIP.

 

These are all establishing trade groups that create Big blocks of US vs Them trading empires. And I find myself wondering if the territories and resources caught in between them and fought over will bring things to a boil.

 

But I still see this as more of a US vs China situation where Russia is to China what EU is to the US.

[Lunix688]

I don't think the future of U.S-Russian relations is very bright, going on with what PhoenixRU said - most Americans have negative views of Russia, and tend to view Russia as a cold-war foe, or as a perpetual 'enemy'. Russia is the go to boogeyman in the U.S. 

 

I think the main issue is just that the U.S does not respect Russia's backyard (i.e: Eastern Europe). 

[Yuli Ban]

The future of US-Russian relations will probably never thaw to the point of outward friendship. The fact is, we USicans have never liked Russia. Look back to the 1800's and early 1900's, and you see that Americans see Russia as being the most backwards of all European autocratic nations. It wasn't exactly false, after all— Russia was still somewhat feudal as late as 1916. It never experienced the Enlightenment, and its elite prided itself upon that fact since they saw the Enlightenment as being a European phenomenon— while they were Russians. Wilson didn't even want to enter World War I precisely because of Russia— he refused to be on the same side as an autocratic nation. And then you got the Red Scares, in the 1920's and the 1950's, which is where Russia was painted as being the Antichrist of Nations. The Left was sorta jivin' with the Russians up until the '70s. It was in the '70s that everyone realized that Sovietism wasn't working, and we also got an upsurge of hard-right conservatism that swept Reagan into office. I'd argue that there was a third Red Scare in the 1980's, and that era was also full of macho excess that prided itself on all-American capitalism. That's when we codified the whole "SU is the anti-US" thing. And Russia then had to fuck everything up by collapsing in 1991, which just granted America bragging rights.

 

So yeah, Russia's been America's enemy for generations. 

 

But fuck all of that for a moment, because our mutual future hinges on someone else. 

 

China.

 

It's long been predicted that the US and Russia were going to be global superpowers. I believe there was even a prediction in the 1800's that said as much as that, claiming that Russia benefited from autocratic rule while America would rise as a business-minded state. 

But they're the new children on the block. The one whose rule is true is actually China; they've been the center of the world for millennia, and it's only in the past 150 years that they've stumbled. Now they're reaffirming their divine right to rule humanity.

China's rise is so great that predictions for the future are constantly being rewritten just to accommodate for them. We've been predicting China's rise as a superpower ever since the end of the Taiping Rebellion, but it's only after they ditched the monarchy and the madmen that they've been able to rise to glory.

 

They've allied with Russia because they oppose US hegemony. However, not a single soul in the world actually believes Russia and China are friends. If anything, there are disturbing parallels between the Germans and Russians in the 1930s that can be seen between the Russians and Chinese today— China doesn't give a damn about Russia; they only care about asserting their own power. They're biding their time before America finally stumbles ourselves, whenever that may be.

 

Russia is no longer a superpower. If anything, they're on the verge of becoming a Chinese puppet state, whereas China is still— during this alleged "economic crisis"— one of the fastest growing nations on Earth. Moscow might be the example China uses to show America what it'll be like when a Chinese flag flies over Washington D.C. 

 

We're approaching a time when Russia might not be able to act without China's approval. China doesn't want the world going up in flames, and if they see that Russia and America are butting heads, they'll step in.

[Mike the average]

Nah.  Russia are used to living with less material needs, and their debt is nothing like yours.   As your economy starts slowing to no growth then minus, you guys will be flying your own planes into buildings.  Its USA that labelled all communists the enemy.  It wasnt exactly China and Russia declaring USA the enemy because it was a democracy.

[Recyvuym]

Okay, TG and Kjaggard have represented US / western views of Russia and PhoenixRu has represented Russia's views of the US pretty ubiquitously.

 

Of the two, I find the Russian perspective far more accurate and close to reality.

 

In fact, I'm constantly stunned at how patronising Americans are towards Russia. Including their leaders. It is as though they don't even realise what is happening. Clearly they are both so confident of American military might that they simply consider Russia beneath them. This is despite that their recent, and not-so-recent, military history is nothing but a series of blunders. And despite the fact they cannot invade Russia without triggering an apocalyptic nuclear exchange.

 

So it is no surprise to me, and perfectly justified, that Russians see America as their enemy. If I were a Russian, I would too.

 

Whether they will remain mortal enemies forever, I don't know, I don't see any fundamental reason why they should, but the relationship to date is not promising.

 

https://en.wikipedia....99_populations

https://en.wikipedia...iment_in_Russia

https://en.wikipedia...t#United_States

[Pisiu369]

Russia isn't a super power? It has a better Military than the USA if you count Reserves, but their economy is shit but soon the USA's economy will be shit aswell with debt and stuff

[PyroRobot]

Phoenix... "for some deep historical and socio-cultural reasons USA (both elite and common people) are just incapable to see Russians as equals or recognize their political subjectivity".

 

That is simply not true. Where do you get these ideas from? If we make a poll on this forum of whether we Americans see Russians as less than equals then i can guarantee you that your misguided perceptions will be false. 

 

I mean look at it this way. How many times have you seen people on this forum bashing Russians and yet every time i see a post of yours on here it is always about how it is our "Americans" fault that things are the way they are. Seems like the inordinate obsession is on your behalf.

agreed. Ive never met anyone in america that sees russians are inferior or superior athough one could argue some americans do not recognize the political subjectivity of russia

[PyroRobot]

Russia isn't a super power? It has a better Military than the USA if you count Reserves, but their economy is shit but soon the USA's economy will be shit aswell with debt and stuff

Do you know what a superpower is? Russia is a military superpower but not a dominant superpower. I would argue China is more of a superpower.

[PyroRobot]

Russia isn't a super power? It has a better Military than the USA if you count Reserves, but their economy is shit but soon the USA's economy will be shit aswell with debt and stuff

Are you implying that more means better?

 

I looked up the statistics

 

Russian Armed Forces- 2,771,000 (771,000 reserve)

United States Armed Forces - 2,111,000 (811,000 reserve)

[Recyvuym]

There's only one superpower at present and it's the US. That won't always be so however. They are currently fighting tooth and nail to stay on top.

[PyroRobot]

There's only one superpower at present and it's the US. That won't always be so however. They are currently fighting tooth and nail to stay on top.

I don't believe any superpower will completely get rid of the US as a superpower It will become more balkanized.

[PhoenixRu]

 

I looked up the statistics

 

Russian Armed Forces- 2,771,000 (771,000 reserve)

United States Armed Forces - 2,111,000 (811,000 reserve)

 

No, unreliable numbers (at least for Russia). With whole Russian population of 146 million people, the 2-3 million people in army would be an unbearable burden. The real number are only 800 thousand (7th in the world) and another 2 million are reservists i.e. people who once served in the military but today they are civilians and you should not count them.

 

Btw, total number of troops isn't that important. As i heard, back in 2003 Iraq had more numerous army than USA, but that didn't help them at all.

[Recyvuym]

Also, the US is not capable of dedicating all or even half of its forces to a war with Russia. They would have to extract troops from all their many, many... many bases around the world to do so. If there's a war, they'll be leaning on NATO.

 

Russia also has major defensive advantages, I need hardly point out the historical precedent.

 

Troop numbers only count for so much. I'm not a military strategist but the military strategists whose views I have read emphasise other factors more.

[kjaggard]

why would anyone want to war with russia.

 

seriously. Maybe it's how much older I m than some of you, but honestly nobody sees them as an enemy. I grew up in the time frame of the coldwar and saw the days of the collapse of the USSR. Only the old goats danced at the fall of their enemy. Most of us under the age of 20 never saw the USSR as an enemy, just a rival team in the game of world powers. We had exchange student from USSR in my school.  They were just other students, nobody acted like they were strange alien invaders.

 

maybe it's whatever region of the US or europe or what not you live and grow up in. But I hung out with a guy at work who was over here from Kazakhstan and he was surprised at my pronunciation (I like picking up a few phrases from anybodies language I can). We talked about what it was like when they seperated in 91. I always saw it as valuable lessons about the potential future of the US and how to weather those changes (this was back before 2005).

 

Most of the people I knew worried about Russia only in the sense that the population faced decreasing quality of life for some years there, and poor health and rising crime rates.

 

I worked with a woman who was actually a well known stained glass artist in St. Petersburg. I got the sense that I was the only one who ever even made note of where she was from, and that's only because I'd say things like spasibo when she helped me learn something new on the job we were doing. Everybody else knew where she was from but it was about the same as the lady from canada, or the guy from greece.

 

If anybody talked about other nations, we heard plenty about Iraq, a bit about some of the conflicts in the Bosnia. But nobody spared a thought for Russia.

 

To follow the opposing team metaphor, it's like the Russian team collapsed, ended up under new managment and was now in a different league. It's a team we weren't going to be playing with so nobody paid much attention.

 

It's even become lazy and boring to have russian villians in spy and action movies. nobody thinks like that anymore. It worked when they were rivals but they aren't anymore.

 

That's not to say they don't have their own robust and rich heritage and culture it's just that there's no real conflict anymore.

 

But Like I said maybe that's my age group and my region of the country. I'm sure rednecks in the middle of the wannabe confederate states of Murica might still have a hard one for them Commies.