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2018 Senate Election

2018 Senate Election U.S. Senate Politics

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#21
Sciencerocks

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I expect the GOP to keep the congress in 2018. Why? Simple...Democrats are at a huge disadvantage in 2018 as we have a lot to hold onto. Adds don't favor us winning as most of these seats are solid GOP. It doesn't matter if they abolish the safetynet, clean air, water, food or anything as the people overall hate the democratic party. Corporate media has made damn sure of it and nothing we democrats say is going to move the boulder that hangs over our heads in the next 1.5 years as the system is rigged against us and the message we don't control.

Get ready to live in a country that could care less about our leadership in science, education and is downright evil towards our poor and old. It is sicking but this is what most of our population is willing to accept these days.

The house? There's a chance we will pick up a few seats and slim their majority a little but that is all. We maybe able to slim it enough that it kills any chance of anymore ACA repeals. God willing.


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#22
Pisiu369

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I expect the GOP to keep the congress in 2018. Why? Simple...Democrats are at a huge disadvantage in 2018 as we have a lot to hold onto. Adds don't favor us winning as most of these seats are solid GOP. It doesn't matter if they abolish the safetynet, clean air, water, food or anything as the people overall hate the democratic party. Corporate media has made damn sure of it and nothing we democrats say is going to move the boulder that hangs over our heads in the next 1.5 years as the system is rigged against us and the message we don't control.

Get ready to live in a country that could care less about our leadership in science, education and is downright evil towards our poor and old. It is sicking but this is what most of our population is willing to accept these days.

The house? There's a chance we will pick up a few seats and slim their majority a little but that is all. We maybe able to slim it enough that it kills any chance of anymore ACA repeals. God willing.

The system is rigged you say? Funny. Both republicans and democrats say that, well then who are the riggers in that case?



#23
Yuli Ban

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Both?

 

Also, 

https://en.wikipedia.../Gerrymandering


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#24
caltrek

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The linked article is a basic overview in summary fashion of the coming 2018 Senate election.

 

U.S. Senate Seats Up For Reelection in 2018

 

http://www.worldpres...lection-in-2018

 

Extract:


 

The United States Senate elections will be held on November 6, 2018. Thirty-four of the 100 Senate seats are up for reelection. The winners of those seats will serve a six-year term from January 3, 2019, until January 3, 2025.

 

Elections to the Senate are staggered over even years so that only about 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection during any election.

 

The Republicans will be defending just 9 seats, while the Democrats will be fighting for 23 — plus another 2 held by independents who caucus with Democrats.

 

…Democrats are expected to target the Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas.

 

Republicans are expected to target Democratic-held seats in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all of which voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election.  Republicans will also likely target seats in Virginia, Maine, and New Jersey.

 

The article linked above lists the 33 Senate seats up for reelection in 2018 in alphabetical order by political party and state.

 

 

democrats-vs-republicans400.jpg


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#25
caltrek

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With Republicans "defending just 9 seats, while the Democrats will be fighting for 23 — plus another 2 held by independents who caucus with Democrats," the conventional wisdom is that Republicans stand a good chance of consolidating their control of the U.S. Senate come 2018.  Her is an article suggesting that road may not be so easy to travel.

 

For Republican Leaders in Congress, the Headaches Keep Mounting

 

IExtract:

 

Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are making no attempt to mask their fear, predicting that failure to pass a tax overhaul in the coming months will lead to a wipeout in next year’s midterm elections. For the first time, some senators are contemplating whether their advantages on the electoral map next year could crumble amid a wave of primary challenges and other departures, putting their two-seat majority in jeopardy next year.

 

Republicans are increasingly mystified by their own grass roots, an electorate they thought they knew, and distressed that a wave of turnover in their ranks could fundamentally change the character of Congress. They fear that the inchoate populism that Mr. Trump personifies, and which Mr. Bannon is attempting to weaponize against incumbents, is on the march.

 

….And matters could get worse. Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, has said she will announce next week whether she will make a 2018 bid for governor. If she leaves Washington, the decision would be tectonic. The Senate would lose a dealmaker, and her seat could eventually slip to the Democrats.

 

…That would only add to the headaches. Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona, who has taken aim at Mr. Trump, appears so weakened with Republican voters that there is increasingly talk of contingency planning should he not run again or seek re-election as an independent.

 

…Then there is Utah, where the Senate’s longest-serving Republican, Orrin G. Hatch, 83, is still determining whether to run for re-election next year. Republicans are inquiring about Mitt Romney’s willingness to run for the seat, and he has been open to overtures from national donors and his own former campaign aides, according to two people who have spoken with him in recent weeks.

 

 

It occurs to me that Tea Party activists challenging incumbents could backfire for the alt right.  With such incumbents removed in the primaries, Democrat chances in the general election against politicians with more extreme views might be enhanced.  At the very least, 2018 should prove to be very entertaining.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#26
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Bannon expands list of Senate Republican targets for 2018

 

https://www.news4jax...argets-for-2018

 

Introduction:

 

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon is expanding his efforts to unseat sitting Senate Republicans in primaries next year.

 

In the two weeks since Bannon-backed former judge Roy Moore defeated Sen. Luther Strange in Alabama's Republican primary, Bannon has expanded his map of targets in the 2018 midterms and ramped up his efforts to establish a donor network to fund his slate of insurgent candidates.

 

Bannon has added Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer and Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch to the ranks of incumbents he plans to take on.

 

He had already put in motion efforts to oust Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker and Nevada Sen. Dean Heller. Bannon also plans to get involved in the primaries in West Virginia and Missouri, two of Republicans' top opportunities to pick off Democratic-held seats next year.

And that's "just a partial list," a source familiar with Bannon's plans said.

 

 

This is kind of a good news / bad news kind of story.  The bad news is that it will surely not help the cause of progressive immigration reform.

 

Still, Bannon is reportedly not a great fan of the current tax reform proposals that would give huge tax breaks to the rich at the expense of everybody else.  If the candidates he supports are also of a like mind, this could greatly complicate the efforts of the Trumpians to pass such regressive tax reform measures.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#27
rennerpetey

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Bannon expands list of Senate Republican targets for 2018

 

https://www.news4jax...argets-for-2018

 

Introduction:

 

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon is expanding his efforts to unseat sitting Senate Republicans in primaries next year.

 

In the two weeks since Bannon-backed former judge Roy Moore defeated Sen. Luther Strange in Alabama's Republican primary, Bannon has expanded his map of targets in the 2018 midterms and ramped up his efforts to establish a donor network to fund his slate of insurgent candidates.

 

Bannon has added Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer and Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch to the ranks of incumbents he plans to take on.

 

He had already put in motion efforts to oust Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker and Nevada Sen. Dean Heller. Bannon also plans to get involved in the primaries in West Virginia and Missouri, two of Republicans' top opportunities to pick off Democratic-held seats next year.

And that's "just a partial list," a source familiar with Bannon's plans said.

 

 

This is kind of a good news / bad news kind of story.  The bad news is that it will surely not help the cause of progressive immigration reform.

 

Still, Bannon is reportedly not a great fan of the current tax reform proposals that would give huge tax breaks to the rich at the expense of everybody else.  If the candidates he supports are also of a like mind, this could greatly complicate the efforts of the Trumpians to pass such regressive tax reform measures.

His efforts might actually split the republicans and give the democrats some seats.


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#28
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2018 Senate Ratings From Daily Kos

 

https://www.dailykos...October-Edition

 

Abstract:

 

Hello folks! I am back with my 2018 Senate Ratings. Three months after my first ratings, it’s time to do an update (the next update will be in January 2018). Thanks all who commented on my first ratings, I always appreciate feedback. There are a handful of changes and that gets the bulk of my attention but I note some other things of interest. Onto the ratings

 

Summary and upshot for 2018 and beyond: So what does all of this mean? Can Democrats capture a majority in 2018? It’s a long, longshot. They’d have to sweep the tossups and find a way to steal Texas or Tennessee. Possible in a wave election, but unlikely. However, I do have a belief, that in a 50-50 senate, Susan Collins ® of Maine would switch caucuses and begin caucusing with Democrats. Why? For one, she’s left of center. According to GovTrack, she was more liberal than Tester, Heitkamp, King, Warner, Nelson, Manchin, and Donnelly in 2016. That’s 7 of the Democrats’ 48 senators. In a Republican party that’s moved farther and farther to the right, Collins looks increasingly out of place. And then there’s the basic fact that she owes nothing to Republican voters in general. According to an election analysis from 2014, she would’ve won re-election without a single Republican vote. There’s the fact that the misogynistic Reps. who populate the Republican congress have said degrading things about her and that the President attacks anyone who doesn’t agree with him. And then there’s the part about her probably losing a Republican primary in 2020. After the BCRA was voted down, PPP found her to be very unpopular with Republicans and in serious trouble of losing a future primary. If I’m Chuck Schumer in a 50-50 senate, I do what Tom Daschle did to Jim Jeffords back in 2001. I offer Collins the opportunity to have any committe chair she wants (except for Judiciary, obviously) and promise not to run anyone against her from the left in a 2020 election. That offer would both boost her power in the senate and basically guarantees her reelection in 2020. I have no idea how she turns that down. 

October_Senate_Ratings.png?1508032314

 

Dark blue = safe D, normal blue = likely D, light blue = lean D, yellow = toss up, dark red = safe R, burnt orange = likely R


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#29
caltrek

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Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake denounces Trump, announces he will not seek reelection in 2018

 

http://www.latimes.c...-htmlstory.html

 

Introduction:

 

Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake said Tuesday that he will not seek reelection in 2018, declaring he needs political independence to criticize President Trump.

 

"I have children and grandchildren to answer to, and so Mr. President, I will not be complicit or silent," Flake declared in a dramatic Senate speech.

 

"Reckless, outrageous and undignified behavior" that "emanates from the top of our government.. is dangerous to a democracy," he said.

 

“I rise today to say enough," Flake added. "We did not become great by calling true things fake.”

 

Flake was already involved in a sharp battle with Trump that had prompted a Republican challenger to enter the race against him

Earlier, Flake told the Arizona Republic about his plan to serve out the remainder of his term but avoid a reelection campaign.

 

BWW-A-Republican-Senators-Candid-Anti-Tr

 

Senator Jeff Flake of Airzona

Photograph By Bill Clark / CQ Roll Call / Getty


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#30
Sciencerocks

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So it is going to come down between a crazy anti-government republican or  a democrat next year for that seat. And we both know that the crazy one has the advantage.


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#31
caltrek

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^^^Perhaps.  Still there is reason to hope.  While an excited republican party may mean a high turnout in the general election,  a bloody primary fight might work to the Democrats advantage.  There is also the fact that Arizona is were Hillary chose to focus a lot of resources on the theory that it could be flipped.  She may have been wrong about 201, but the Democrats made impressive gains in that year.  There are also demographic trends at work.  So while the "crazy" ones might have an advantage, there is a real possibility for the Democrats.

 

Here is story that build upon the story I inked earlier.

 

Senator Flake’s Withdrawal Sets off Free-for-All in Arizona

 

https://www.courthou...f-free-arizona/

 

Introduction:

 

TUCSON (Courthouse News) — Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake’s withdrawal from the 2018 race is likely to lead to an in-state Republican bloodbath that will stretch well into next year, a University of Arizona political science professor said Wednesday.

 

Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema, a former social worker who represents the Ninth Congressional District in urban and suburban Phoenix, is expected to be the Democratic nominee.

 

But “what’s going to be likely is a pretty serious bloodbath on the Republican side,” said Thomas Volgy, a former Tucson mayor and city councilman, who has been on the University of Arizona faculty since 1971.

 

Three Republicans have announced: porn website founder Craig Brittain, whose campaign site boasts that InfoWars and Breitbart frequently quote his works; pharmacist Nicolas Tortura, who says he will fight what he calls the “unelected deep state” in Washington, D.C.; and former emergency room physician Kelli Ward, an outspoken Trump supporter who was leading Flake in several polls when the incumbent left the race.

 

Others who garnered attention but have not announced for the Republican primary include former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio; Congresswoman Martha McSally, a former combat pilot who represents District 2, covering about half of Tucson’s metropolitan area; and former Gov. Jan Brewer.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#32
caltrek

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The article below was originally placed in the Business and Politics thread.  For obvious reasons, it is also appropriate for this thread.

 

Orrin Hatch Tells Friends He Plans to Retire

 

 

https://www.theatlan...-romney/544211/

 

 

Introduction:

 

 

SALT LAKE CITY, Utah  (The Atlantic) —Senator Orrin Hatch has privately told allies in Utah that he is planning to retire at the end of his term next year, and if he does, Mitt Romney intends to run for his seat, according to five sources familiar with the situation.

 

“Nothing has changed since The Atlantic published a carbon copy of this same story in April, likely with the same anonymous sources who were no more informed on the Senator's thinking than they seem to be now,” said Dave Hansen, a spokesperson for Hatch. “Senator Hatch is focused on leading the Senate's efforts to pass historic tax reform, confirming strong judges to courts around the country, and continuing to fight through the gridlock to deliver results for Utah. He has not made a final decision about whether or not to seek reelection, but plans to by the end of the year.” He declined to comment on what Hatch has told allies in private. A spokesperson for Romney declined to comment for this story.

Sources close to both men said plans have already been set in motion for Hatch to retire and for Romney to run, but they cautioned that the timing of the announcements have not yet been finalized, and that either man could still change his mind. They spoke on condition of anonymity, because the plans are not yet public, and the subject is sensitive to Hatch. Already, though, the expected developments are reshaping the state’s political landscape.

 

Derek Miller, the CEO of Utah’s World Trade Center who said he was exploring a bid for the seat earlier this year, said the plan for Romney to run had been “reported to me as a ‘done deal.’” He added, “if Romney runs, I will fully support him.”


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#33
caltrek

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Potential Cruz primary challenger readies Senate bid

 

http://www.mcclatchy...e183875846.html

 

Introduction:

 

(McClatchy D.C. Bureau) WASHINGTON - A Texas Republican who could challenge Sen. Ted Cruz next year is laying the groundwork for a Senate bid.

 

Christian television executive Bruce Jacobson, who has discussed the possibility of taking on the Texas Republican in a primary, has a now live campaign website, brucefortexas.com, and Twitter handle, @brucefortexas.

 

Texas’s 2018 primary filing opens Saturday and runs through Dec. 11.

 

A Fort Worth-based super PAC has been raising money to help a potential Jacobson campaign. The group, Texans for Texas, has raised about $25,000. It has paid the Pittsburgh-based firm Brabender Cox, which has ties to Rick Santorum.

 

The PAC has criticized Cruz for spending too much time out of state during his unsuccessful run for the Republican presidential nomination last year.

 

There are so many things that make Ted Cruz a horrible leader, that I would love to see him taken out in a primary fight.  Even if the victor were a tougher challenge for the Democratic opponent in the general election.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#34
rennerpetey

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Things just keep looking better and better for the democrats next year

 

GOP is shackled to Trump

 

Now the urgent fear among Republicans on Capitol Hill is a 2018 landslide for Democrats as voters turn on Trump.
 
The vote in Virginia comes on the heels of Trump’s disapproval hitting 57 percent in the latest Fox News poll.
 
The president’s support among white men without a college degree is down to 56 percent from the 71 percent who voted for him a year ago. He has lost support among white evangelicals, with 66 percent supporting him now instead of the 80 percent that voted for him. He has also seen his support among independents slide from 46 percent in 2016 to 30 percent today.
 

 

Trump’s support among self-identified Republicans remains high at 83 percent in the Fox poll, but fewer people overall are identifying themselves as Republicans.

This is FOX NEWS reporting this!  I'm optimistic for the 2018 elections.


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#35
caltrek

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Is Steve Bannon Planning to Unleash Erik Prince on Wyoming Senator John Barasso?

 

http://www.truth-out...or-john-barasso

 

Introduction:

 

(Buzzflash) After he's finished with the sullied campaign of Alabama's Roy Moore, will Steve Bannon's next project be the Senatorial campaign of Erik Prince, the founder of the notorious Blackwater security firm, or as Esquire's Charles P. Pierce characterized the company, the Blackwater "murder gang"?

 

In early October, The New York Times reported that Prince, a frequent Breitbart radio guest, is seriously considering and "appears increasingly likely" to stage a primary challenge to Wyoming Republican Senator John Barasso, "a senior member of the Senate Republican leadership." And Bannon, the anti-establishment-candidate-whisperer is pledging his support, and perhaps he'll be able to bring along financial support from Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah.  

 

As The New York Times' Jeremy W. Peters, Maggie Haberman and Glenn Thrush reported, Prince, the brother of education secretary Betsy DeVos, "who has never run for public office, has been a polarizing figure for years, as Blackwater faced a welter of ethical and legal problems over its work for the military in places like Iraq, including an episode in 2007 in which its employees killed 17 civilians in Baghdad."

 

According to Salon's Heather Digby Parton, "Prince has been under investigation by the government for money laundering and attempts to broker his mercenary services to foreign governments."

 

Last year, The Intercept's Matthew Cole and Jeremy Scahill reported that Prince has been "working with a small cadre of loyalists — including a former South African commando, a former Australian air force pilot, and a lawyer with dual citizenship in the U.S. and Israel . . . to secretly rebuild his private CIA and special operations enterprise by setting up foreign shell companies and offering paramilitary services." 

 


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#36
caltrek

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Ex-Governor’s Run Gives Democrats a Bit More Hope of Retaking the Senate

 

https://www.nytimes....ate-corker.html

 

Introduction:

 

(New York Times) WASHINGTON — Former Gov. Phil Bredesen, the last Democrat to win statewide office in Tennessee, announced on Thursday that he would run for the seat being vacated by Senator Bob Corker, handing his party a conceivable, if extremely narrow, path back to a Senate majority in 2018.

 

Mr. Bredesen, a wealthy business executive and two-term governor who swept every county in the state in his 2006 re-election bid, was aggressively courted by Senate Democrats, who have been eyeing any potential openings in a year that features a forbidding map for the party.

 

Democrats are defending 25 Senate seats next year, 10 of them in states that President Trump won. But if Mr. Bredesen can mount a strong campaign, Tennessee would join Nevada and Arizona as states where Republican-held Senate seats could be in jeopardy. Republicans currently have a two-seat majority.

 

A win by Doug Jones, a Democrat, in the Alabama special election on Tuesday would provide a wider path to the majority.

 

Mr. Bredesen, 74, declared his candidacy with a web video that illustrated why he could prove a formidable candidate but also why he faces a bruising campaign that could prove the most expensive in state history.

08dcsenate-master768.jpg

 

Former Gov. Phil Bredesen of Tennessee, a Democrat, will seek the Senate seat being vacated by Bob Corker, a Republican. 

Credit: Mark Humphrey/Associated Press


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#37
wjfox

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I have no doubt that Roy Moore will win. Simply because America is a moral, intellectual and political cesspit right now (no offence guys).

 

Alabama is a deep red state, Trump is clearly popular in the south, and most voters are pig-ignorant and dumb. Their only concern is defeating liberals, and I think they're prepared to elect anyone to achieve that aim.

 

---

 

Why No One Knows What Will Happen in Alabama

Today’s special election is forcing pollsters to confront just about every major challenge in survey research.

By Nate Cohn
Dec. 12, 2017

The Roy Moore race poses exquisite difficulties for pollsters.

If the Democrat, Doug Jones, manages to defeat Mr. Moore, the Republican, in deep-red Alabama on Tuesday, control of the Senate will be a true tossup in 2018.

But there is no consensus about whether this is likely. On Monday, a Fox News poll showed Mr. Jones up by 10 points; an Emerson College poll showed Mr. Moore up by nine points. Over all, despite allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls, Mr. Moore appears to maintain a nominal lead in an average of recent public surveys.

What’s going on? The Alabama special election is forcing pollsters to confront just about every major challenge in survey research. There’s more uncertainty than usual about who will turn out to vote, and a candidate whose unpopularity may make his committed voters unwilling to admit their support to a pollster. And looming over it all is a big chunk of voters torn between their party and their misgivings about their party’s nominee. No poll can really predict what they’ll do.

 

https://www.nytimes....-roy-moore.html



#38
Yuli Ban

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I dunno. Stranger things have happened in the past two years. People said America wouldn't elect Trump, but we did. People said Brexit wouldn't happen, but it did. People said May would win an easy Tory majority, but she didn't. Everyone's expecting Moore to win the same way we expected all these other things.


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#39
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so just to be realsitic, demcrats are taking bit by bit to reclaim the office but not yet. i'll wait and see in 2020.



#40
wjfox

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There is a 100% chance that Roy Moore will win the vote in Alabama.







Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: 2018 Senate Election, U.S. Senate, Politics

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