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The Official Italian Referendum 2016 Thread

economics politics Italy Renzi EU Italeave

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#1
Recyvuym

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Since this news story has been my thing for the past month or so, seems only natural I should start the thread about it.

 

On the 4th of December, Italy decides whether to accept the constitutional revisions proposed by Prime Minister Renzi. If they vote no...

 

 

As you all know, because I've been deliberately saying it over and over for the past year so you can't possibly miss it, I have bet whatever credibility I hold on this forum that we will have entered the next global financial crisis by March 2017 at the latest, and that when we eventually hit the bottom of the resulting worldwide downturn, it will be at least as bad as the last Great Depression.

 

I'm now going double or nothing and predicting that the crisis will begin with Italy on the 4th of December when they vote no in the referendum. Within twelve months of this, and as a result of it, the rest of the European banking system will have either been bailed out, or collapsed.

 

On the day itself, I am expecting a stock market crash and devaluation of the euro, as a result of political uncertainty regarding Italy's leadership and the state of the European Union. Within one week (let's say five days), we're going to have our next Lehman Brothers moment for 2016 when the already bankrupt either ECB or Monte dei Paschi, or both, disintegrate. The wider extent of the damage will begin to become apparent over the following weeks, but it probably won't be until the second half of 2017 that it's official. Recessions take time to hit the news. But the crisis point is imminent nonetheless. 17 days left.

 

This is the biggest news story of the decade you haven't heard. Unlike Trump, it's going to creep up on everyone. It's also going to be orders of magnitude worse than the mere election of a reality TV star to the White House.


  • Yuli Ban likes this

I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#2
Smeargle

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dude, we already knew the world was ending

ARADIA: i think i mostly want to see what happens when this whole place breaks apart


#3
MarcZ

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Bye Renzi!



#4
Jakob

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As you all know, because I've been deliberately saying it over and over for the past year so you can't possibly miss it, I have bet whatever credibility I hold on this forum that we will have entered the next global financial crisis by March 2017 at the latest, and that when we eventually hit the bottom of the resulting worldwide downturn, it will be at least as bad as the last Great Depression.

What happens on April 1, 2017 if there's no financial crisis?


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Spoiler

#5
Erowind

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As you all know, because I've been deliberately saying it over and over for the past year so you can't possibly miss it, I have bet whatever credibility I hold on this forum that we will have entered the next global financial crisis by March 2017 at the latest, and that when we eventually hit the bottom of the resulting worldwide downturn, it will be at least as bad as the last Great Depression.

What happens on April 1, 2017 if there's no financial crisis?

 

Recyvuym experiences a paradigm shift and turns into the most optimistic person on the forum.


  • eacao, Yuli Ban, Jakob and 1 other like this

Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.


#6
PhoenixRu

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Bye Renzi!

 

MarcZ, i thought YOU will create this thread :)


--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

 

"And the Russian land, let God keep it! Under heavens, there is no other land like this. And although Russian nobles are not righteous neither kind, let God arrange the Russian land and give us enough justice" - Afanasy Nikitin, medieval traveler of XV century.


#7
Recyvuym

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As you all know, because I've been deliberately saying it over and over for the past year so you can't possibly miss it, I have bet whatever credibility I hold on this forum that we will have entered the next global financial crisis by March 2017 at the latest, and that when we eventually hit the bottom of the resulting worldwide downturn, it will be at least as bad as the last Great Depression.

What happens on April 1, 2017 if there's no financial crisis?

 

I change my signature to a link to my thread about the Crash of 2016/7, saying something along the lines of, "I was wrong all along, don't listen to anything I say ever, including this. Such is the folly of trying to predict a major world event."


  • eacao, Yuli Ban and Jakob like this

I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#8
Yuli Ban

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If nothing happens by April 2017, don't change that username just yet.

 

The Great Depression didn't get started in earnest until roughly 1931, largely due to the awful policies of Herbert Hoover. Before then, it was just a recession. Hoover was so inept that he wound up turning it into a depression.

 

Even if/when they vote "No", it's much more likely that we'll wind up in an economic downturn for roughly a year that the pundits deny and, most importantly, doesn't seem to be affecting certain economies.

For example, the world is already in an economic downturn. But people in America wouldn't think so. Sure, we're not exactly super positive about things, but the economy's definitely up and no one's going to be badmouthing the low gas prices.

 

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But once Trump comes in and his 100 Days Plan is enacted, there's no doubt in my mind he's going to bungle up the whole thing and turn the inevitable recession into a full-blown depression. It'll take a while, but it will happen.


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Nobody gonna beat my drone, it's gonna shoot into the sky!

#9
Mike the average

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Maybe someone could avatar bet recyvuym?
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#10
Recyvuym

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Are you serious? So not just my signature, but my avatar and username as well? Should I wear a dunce hat while I'm at it?

 

And if I'm right, what should the people who've done nothing but take cheap shots at me all year do? Like TranscendingGod, who has smugly assured me I'll be wrong even though he admits to having no understanding of finance, has never once refuted any of my arguments, and has put none of his own credibility on the line?

 

If nothing happens by April 2017, don't change that username just yet.

 

The Great Depression didn't get started in earnest until roughly 1931, largely due to the awful policies of Herbert Hoover. Before then, it was just a recession. Hoover was so inept that he wound up turning it into a depression.

 

Even if/when they vote "No", it's much more likely that we'll wind up in an economic downturn for roughly a year that the pundits deny and, most importantly, doesn't seem to be affecting certain economies.

For example, the world is already in an economic downturn. But people in America wouldn't think so. Sure, we're not exactly super positive about things, but the economy's definitely up and no one's going to be badmouthing the low gas prices.

 

But once Trump comes in and his 100 Days Plan is enacted, there's no doubt in my mind he's going to bungle up the whole thing and turn the inevitable recession into a full-blown depression. It'll take a while, but it will happen.

 

That's how it'll go down in the history books. But actually, the depression was inevitable no matter who became president. Long before it became apparent Trump would win, I've been pointing to the runaway debt, emergency policies like ZIRP / NIRP that have become standard procedure, massive bubbles waiting to burst not just in real estate but also in auto loans, student loans and tech. To the bankrupt EU and to the teetering goliath of China. Trump will most definitely make things worse, but even if it was Clinton, we'd still be staring down the barrel of the biggest crash in living memory.

 

My best guess is there will be two crises in December. The second one will be triggered by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again. They are very likely to do this. The window is closing for them, and they're under pressure to prove that the recovery of the past eight years was, in fact, a recovery.

 

There's just one problem: it wasn't.

 

So, if nothing appears to have happened by April 2017, I will be suitably stunned. If, however, the European banking system is midway through collapse, and the Fed is trying to explain why the stock market crashed again and why there's a bigger wave of defaults hitting the country than in 2008, I won't be the least bit surprised. At that point, it will probably still be ambiguous whether I was right, and some people may argue that I was wrong. But if so, history will vindicate me.


  • Yuli Ban likes this

I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#11
TranscendingGod

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I admit i have no understanding of finance? I admit i am ignorant of many things but to say no is too far a claim for even the most base simpleton knows that in order to to acquire goods he must exchange services or money. It is my understanding that the circumstances that were conducive to the Great Depression were indeed extreme. Has never once refuted your arguments? Provide them and i will do the best i can. One of the problems that i see with your so called arguments are the ramifications of what are often time truthful problems. Excessive debt? Is the reason for concern of calamity? I would argue no. Fact of the matter is that even if we had a depression at the level of the Great Depression we would be fine. I have already posited these exact points to you before. To appease your austerity (and short term memory) i shall explain that fine does not mean unscathed. Rather it means that the fundamental tenet of societal collapse that you adhere to is something that i do not see occurring due to financial duress. 

 

Arguing points is to me not an auspicious course of action. Why? For the simple reason that you have vehemently demonstrated your staunch position as immutable in your eyes. As irrefragable  to anything but the progress of time and even then i can assure you that you will retain your cynicism. Come 2017 and past 2018 your portents of some sort of fundamental impediment to the continuation of society will remain things which you will easily embrace. 

 

Thus i refuse to sully our dignity any further (what little remains after the manic episodes that have possessed me situations prior)  by our indefatigable obstinacy with a conversation which will be far from auspicious. 

 

As for reputation? What childish folly! A farce! Do you believe we have garnered any semblance of reputation through our writings? Let it be sufficient that respect i have for you and other members but only that which i hold for any other human. If anything the window you people have opened into your thoughts has chipped away at any regard which i held for you as capable intelligent people. Do not be discouraged by my dismissal for with the aforementioned regard i hold myself and my thoughts. For this reason i say that the the prediction of the future is inherently a belief. However i do consider it at the very least audacious to say that we have created some sort of reputation for these nonsensical scribbles on the forum we frequent for is it not true that more often than not we tarnish that same reputation held by any decent person? Is it not true that for every decent word we write we write 3 pieces of veritable rubbish? Perhaps you who holds yourself in high esteem, forgive me if i am mistaken, considers it the situation an inverse where you write 3 golden words for every piece of trash. 

 

Nevertheless to the extent you wish to attribute to me a reputation i am deeply humbled and will gladly put it on the line as to the continued progression of technological innovation and the overwhelming prowess of the human species. Yes i will gladly stake any and all reputation for the continued prosperity of mankind! As a last measure of consideration I present the case that indeed i have never conclusively dictated beyond manner of simple attestation of belief that a recession will not occur or even a depression, but merely that civilization will persevere as it has always done. 

 

So in conclusion i do not believe that something like the Great Depression is likely to happen in the next few years but recessions are cyclical parts of economies and thus i cannot say that it will without a matter of a doubt not occur. This "GFC" coinage is something that, if i understand it correctly, is something that i disagree with and find unlikely. 


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#12
Mike the average

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Thats why it should be an avatar bet, so then then it gives someone else a chance to put their credibility at stake.

For instance Erowind is investing in this current market, so must be pretty sure its not going to crash, so whats a measley avatar in comparison.
'Force always attracts men of low morality' - Einstein
'Great spirits always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds' - Einstein

#13
TranscendingGod

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An avatar bet? So like he replaces his avatar with one of my choosing? I'm down for that.

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#14
Sciencerocks

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Trump reminds me of Hover with his deregulations and hatred of sane policy.

 

This depression will likely be far worse then 1930's one. What will make you feel it will be the cuts in the safetynet that protected most of the population during the 2008-2010 period. People will regret voting for the republican party...


  • Recyvuym likes this

To follow my work on tropical cyclones


#15
Recyvuym

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I admit i have no understanding of finance? I admit i am ignorant of many things but to say no is too far a claim for even the most base simpleton knows that in order to to acquire goods he must exchange services or money. It is my understanding that the circumstances that were conducive to the Great Depression were indeed extreme. Has never once refuted your arguments? Provide them and i will do the best i can. One of the problems that i see with your so called arguments are the ramifications of what are often time truthful problems. Excessive debt? Is the reason for concern of calamity? I would argue no. Fact of the matter is that even if we had a depression at the level of the Great Depression we would be fine. I have already posited these exact points to you before. To appease your austerity (and short term memory) i shall explain that fine does not mean unscathed. Rather it means that the fundamental tenet of societal collapse that you adhere to is something that i do not see occurring due to financial duress. 

 

Arguing points is to me not an auspicious course of action. Why? For the simple reason that you have vehemently demonstrated your staunch position as immutable in your eyes. As irrefragable  to anything but the progress of time and even then i can assure you that you will retain your cynicism. Come 2017 and past 2018 your portents of some sort of fundamental impediment to the continuation of society will remain things which you will easily embrace. 

 

Thus i refuse to sully our dignity any further (what little remains after the manic episodes that have possessed me situations prior)  by our indefatigable obstinacy with a conversation which will be far from auspicious. 

 

As for reputation? What childish folly! A farce! Do you believe we have garnered any semblance of reputation through our writings? Let it be sufficient that respect i have for you and other members but only that which i hold for any other human. If anything the window you people have opened into your thoughts has chipped away at any regard which i held for you as capable intelligent people. Do not be discouraged by my dismissal for with the aforementioned regard i hold myself and my thoughts. For this reason i say that the the prediction of the future is inherently a belief. However i do consider it at the very least audacious to say that we have created some sort of reputation for these nonsensical scribbles on the forum we frequent for is it not true that more often than not we tarnish that same reputation held by any decent person? Is it not true that for every decent word we write we write 3 pieces of veritable rubbish? Perhaps you who holds yourself in high esteem, forgive me if i am mistaken, considers it the situation an inverse where you write 3 golden words for every piece of trash. 

 

 

I don't mean to come across as pretentious with the whole credibility thing. Of course our 'reputations' on this forum don't matter. But for whatever it is worth, I have decided to publicly put my view of the future to the test. At present, few people here take anything I say about the inexorable disasters of the 21st century very seriously. My expectation is that if I'm correct about the economic meltdown, some may begin to take the rest of what I've said more seriously. Believe it or not, it was never my intention to simply stand around proselytising doom. I only do that because people stubbornly refuse to accept it. Among those who do accept it, I would prefer to have the next part of the conversation, namely, how do we survive in this new world, and what part can we play to mitigate the damage and make sure something beneficial comes out of the collapse scenario?

 

I also don't mean to imply you are an ignoramus, simply that you've said yourself you aren't that well acquainted with economics. By no means am I a professional myself, but I don't think you need to be to realise:

 

1. Central banks are printing money as though the global economy is in freefall. Across the world, countries are peddling almost $200bil in quantitative easing per month. That's more than they were printing in the depths of the GFC.

 

2. Interest rates have been stuck at zero or almost zero (ZIRP) for eight years. This has never happened before in history. ZIRP was intended as an emergency short-term measure. The fact global economies can only grow with cheap or even free credit not only indicates they are not recovering, it also inflates bubbles much like the one that caused the GFC.

 

3. Negative interest rate policy (NIRP) was unheard of by anybody 18 months ago... since then it has spread from Japan to a quarter of the world. This is sheer desperation and a sign things are not going well at all. It's also bottling up the economic volcano and making sure it'll be even more painful when it blows. Also, it's only actually working in one country.

 

4. The bankers responsible for the Global Financial Crisis were not punished, they were rewarded. This has only incentivised the same predatory lending that led to the GFC. The banks that were too big to fail in 2008 are now bigger. Investors now expect and count on bank bailouts. Seriously, that's not how it's supposed to work.

 

5. Spending power of the middle class is diminishing as the middle class is disappearing. The average American family can no longer afford a $500 medical bill without borrowing money or selling something. Minimum wage has not improved in 40 years. Yet the consumer dollar is the one thing keeping the US out of recession.

 

6. Mortgage bubble (again). Subprime auto loan bubble (again). Tech bubble. Student loan bubble. How are companies generally coping with all this? Stock buybacks.

 

7. Trump.

 

8. The European banking crisis, which has kicked into high gear since Brexit.

 

9. China. 'Nuff said. (Also, they're not growing at 6.7%. Really. They're not.)

 

10. While you're right global debt isn't a problem in and of itself, it becomes a problem when you're in recession and unable to muster the capital to pay it off... and doubly so when the era of cheap credit runs dry. Worst case for the US, they get put in the awkward position of having to print even more money to pay their creditors, which could lead to hyperinflation. For other nations, they're looking at catastrophic defaults and the deaths of their currencies. Also, Trump is going to have to raise the debt ceiling in March. Claims that skyrocketing debt isn't a problem, are siren calls.

 

11. The oil glut has caused mass defaults and bankruptcy across the industry, and led to severe geopolitical instability.

 

12. Global trade is at its slowest pace since the GFC.

 

13. Last but not least - the world is already in a minor depression and has been for an entire decade now. If growth was still strong, I might buy the 'secular stagnation' argument, or that we're about to see another run-of-the-mill recession. But every indicator tells me nations have been rendered unable to expand meaningfully. The US can't breach the 3% growth per quarter ceiling. It's being called the worst recovery since WWII, and of course, whether you're recovering or not depends solely upon how rich you are. How bad was the GFC that it gets compared to a world war?

 

Now, tell me, the next time there's a recession, how are they going to combat it?

 

Can't drop interest rates. They're as low as they can go.

 

Can't keep printing money. It's already at record levels and wreaking havoc in the process.

 

Can't even bail out some of the biggest banks that are at risk this time. Merkel has made it clear Deutsche Bank, with its $72tril in derivatives, will be allowed to fall (so she can get a fourth term).

 

The entire world economy is now running on unprecedented emergency measures - and they're not even working.

 

Final question. Keeping in mind that the US goes into recession every seven years on average. Is a crisis imminent? If you're not convinced yet, give it 16 more days.


  • Yuli Ban and Infinite like this

I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#16
Recyvuym

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Thats why it should be an avatar bet, so then then it gives someone else a chance to put their credibility at stake.

For instance Erowind is investing in this current market, so must be pretty sure its not going to crash, so whats a measley avatar in comparison.

I'm not sold on this. For one thing, it's mean-spirited. For another, there's the possibility that it will be ambiguous, at first, whether I was right. And finally, for how long is the loser supposed to keep the dunce avatar?

 

But, since I'm right, I'm willing to consider it anyway.

 

Edit: If someone does want to take that bet, I'm thinking an avatar of Hoover, with a user title of "Prosperity is just around the corner!" Or something like this: http://militantliber.../11/Bennett.gif

 

Edit 2: Also Mike, you changed your original post calling for an avatar bet. Now it makes me look as though I overreacted.


Edited by Recyvuym, 19 November 2016 - 01:41 AM.

I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)


#17
TranscendingGod

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Sounds good Recyvuym. I'll take the bet and I'll learn some more about all that financial goodness while I wait for the crash.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#18
Maximus

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You may be on to something here...

 

If this comes to fruition, the global industrial capitalist system will have failed, just as communism failed. We've already had a decade of recession/ stagnation, if we go into another recession, there's no reason to believe this is simply a cycle. Boom and bust is out the window, we might be looking at bust-stagnate-bust even lower-repeat. I mean it is a bit ridiculous to assume that capitalism is the end game of human socio-economic development; it has no answers to the problems brought on by the sort of technological progress we will soon be seeing. 

 

What comes next? Populism, nationalism, and the far right are all experiencing huge gains in the West; no, this isn't because of "bigots" or whatever bs the political left cares about these days. This is the people's response to decades long economic stagnation. Wages and standards of living have been stagnant for quite some time now. Jobs are being permanently lost to automation and technological progress. Trump or Hillary, it doesn't matter; no one can stop what's coming. Trump will take the fall once people realize he wont make America great again (hint: you can't). America peaked in the 90's, overstretched itself in the Middle East, and is now slowly decaying. We are living in the twilight of America. It won't collapse overnight (no empire has), but the decade or century long process has started.

 

Governments will become increasingly authoritarian as the unruly masses elect puppet after puppet, each one promising some variant of "Make America Great Again". Eventually, unemployment and social unrest will become so great that emergency measures will be put in place and democracy will be ended. We're effectively going back in time politically and socially while advancing technologically.


  • Yuli Ban, PhoenixRu, Infinite and 1 other like this
If the world should blow itself up, the last audible voice would be that of an expert saying it can't be done. -Peter Ustinov
 

#19
Erowind

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Thats why it should be an avatar bet, so then then it gives someone else a chance to put their credibility at stake.

For instance Erowind is investing in this current market, so must be pretty sure its not going to crash, so whats a measley avatar in comparison.

It's not that I'm sure the market won't crash, rather that when the next recession hits as they always do. I am content to ride the wave back to my previous balance, put a bit more cash in once a true recovery begins and make profit on those in between years. For instance if someone had 10K invested in the S&P 500 in March of 2007 ( around 1400 points on the S&P 500 ticker) and got scared away by the recession. Not only would they be down 5k (around 700 points on the S&P 500 ticker) come march of 2009. They would also not regain any of their losses back since they pulled their assets. However, if they had waited until march of 2013 when the S&P 500 fully recovered and put a few more thousand in once 2010-11 rolled around and the recovery was a sure thing. They would not only have regained their balance, but they would also have made some extra funds along the way. The rule of thumb is to not put all your assets from the market, wait out the recession while not pulling your invested assets, and investing a bit more than you normally do during the recovery.

Another thing to remember is to diversify a portfolio as much as possible. Not all sectors of the market go down during economic downturn and you can supplement your investment in your home country with foreign markets as well. Here is a general overview of my portfolio just to give you guys some context on what a balanced portfolio with moderate risk looks like.

  • ~ 16% Total US Stock Market ETFs
  • ~ 16% Large-Cap US Stock Market ETFs
  • ~ 5% Mid-Cap US Stock Market ETFs
  • ~ 35% Developed Markets outside the US. This catagory is split up much like the US is higher up in the list. E.G 1% UK Large Cap, 0.33% UK Mid Cap, Germany, Australia, etc.
  • ~ 10% Emerging Markets (split same as above)
  • ~ 10% Various Municiple, Corporate, and International bonds.

Now with all of this said, if a multi decade depression like what Rec is talking about happened. I would get screwed like everyone else. My assets would probably drop by 70-80% over the course of those decades and I would move to Twin Oaks or something. I don't think this is going to happen though and have enough faith in the ability of the developed world to recover from economic problems that I am comfortable investing in it for the long term. That's the other thing to remember, investing for a quick buck is either unrealistic or really risky. I am in this for the long game and don't plan on pulling money from my accounts until the 2030's/2040's. Who knows, by then I might not even need money if automation spurs as much economic change as I hope it does.

P.S I am wealthy by most standards but I'm not rich. I have enough assets that I can go to school without working and invest a little on the side, but I have too little resources to afford the luxury of not working and pursuing my passions unchained. From personal experience, there is not much of a difference between a man with 10K and one with 100K. Both still have to go to work, plan for their financial future, drive similar cars and live in similar houses. Also if you do find someone with 100k who flaunts their money and buys a new Tesla while eating out at high class restaurants every night, they won't have that 100k for long. Also on the daily, my apartment reminds me of the Soviot Block ;)

 

Outside

k9Crhid.jpg

 

Inside

Qa40Rr3.jpg

 

Edit: Grammar


Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.


#20
Recyvuym

Recyvuym

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You may be on to something here...

 

If this comes to fruition, the global industrial capitalist system will have failed, just as communism failed. We've already had a decade of recession/ stagnation, if we go into another recession, there's no reason to believe this is simply a cycle. Boom and bust is out the window, we might be looking at bust-stagnate-bust even lower-repeat. I mean it is a bit ridiculous to assume that capitalism is the end game of human socio-economic development; it has no answers to the problems brought on by the sort of technological progress we will soon be seeing. 

 

What comes next? Populism, nationalism, and the far right are all experiencing huge gains in the West; no, this isn't because of "bigots" or whatever bs the political left cares about these days. This is the people's response to decades long economic stagnation. Wages and standards of living have been stagnant for quite some time now. Jobs are being permanently lost to automation and technological progress. Trump or Hillary, it doesn't matter; no one can stop what's coming. Trump will take the fall once people realize he wont make America great again (hint: you can't). America peaked in the 90's, overstretched itself in the Middle East, and is now slowly decaying. We are living in the twilight of America. It won't collapse overnight (no empire has), but the decade or century long process has started.

 

Governments will become increasingly authoritarian as the unruly masses elect puppet after puppet, each one promising some variant of "Make America Great Again". Eventually, unemployment and social unrest will become so great that emergency measures will be put in place and democracy will be ended. We're effectively going back in time politically and socially while advancing technologically.

... *slow clap*

 

What he said.

 

To reiterate my own wide-view outlook, this is from my userpage (the first of three phases of collapse):

 

Economy: collapse of the financial system due to runaway debt, deregulation, corruption and wealth concentration. This is the end of capitalism as we know it, and it will manifest through an ever-worsening global depression that will last until the status quo is completely overtuned planet-wide.

 

 

Erowind, on 19 Nov 2016 - 5:30 PM, said:

Now with all of this said, if a multi decade depression like what Rec is talking about happened.

 

Actually I'm not sure it will be multi-decade. Unless you count 2008 - 2016 as part of the depression, which might be how it end up going down in history.

 

Instead, I think it's going to eventually be the death of the monetary system as we know it, and it will be replaced with something different after. A new iteration of capitalism. Just as neoliberal capitalism took over in the 80s. I can speculate about how it will look, but I'll leave that for another time. Suffice to say it won't be pretty. But there'll be winners and losers. I'm confident Erowind will have a chance as long as he keeps on top of developments as they occur.

 

How long will it take to reach this point? Well, who can say. I expect the world to look pretty unrecognisable by the year 2030. But don't we all.


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I loudly predicted the second wave of the Global Financial Crisis would begin by the 31st of March 2017. But I was wrong! Observe my well-deserved public humiliation here, here and here. Let this be a warning to all of you who try to guess the future. Yes, that means you, reading this now! Put that prediction back in your pocket! Do it now, before it's too late! (Also check out my userpage, it's even funnier.)






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