I admit i have no understanding of finance? I admit i am ignorant of many things but to say no is too far a claim for even the most base simpleton knows that in order to to acquire goods he must exchange services or money. It is my understanding that the circumstances that were conducive to the Great Depression were indeed extreme. Has never once refuted your arguments? Provide them and i will do the best i can. One of the problems that i see with your so called arguments are the ramifications of what are often time truthful problems. Excessive debt? Is the reason for concern of calamity? I would argue no. Fact of the matter is that even if we had a depression at the level of the Great Depression we would be fine. I have already posited these exact points to you before. To appease your austerity (and short term memory) i shall explain that fine does not mean unscathed. Rather it means that the fundamental tenet of societal collapse that you adhere to is something that i do not see occurring due to financial duress.
Arguing points is to me not an auspicious course of action. Why? For the simple reason that you have vehemently demonstrated your staunch position as immutable in your eyes. As irrefragable to anything but the progress of time and even then i can assure you that you will retain your cynicism. Come 2017 and past 2018 your portents of some sort of fundamental impediment to the continuation of society will remain things which you will easily embrace.
Thus i refuse to sully our dignity any further (what little remains after the manic episodes that have possessed me situations prior) by our indefatigable obstinacy with a conversation which will be far from auspicious.
As for reputation? What childish folly! A farce! Do you believe we have garnered any semblance of reputation through our writings? Let it be sufficient that respect i have for you and other members but only that which i hold for any other human. If anything the window you people have opened into your thoughts has chipped away at any regard which i held for you as capable intelligent people. Do not be discouraged by my dismissal for with the aforementioned regard i hold myself and my thoughts. For this reason i say that the the prediction of the future is inherently a belief. However i do consider it at the very least audacious to say that we have created some sort of reputation for these nonsensical scribbles on the forum we frequent for is it not true that more often than not we tarnish that same reputation held by any decent person? Is it not true that for every decent word we write we write 3 pieces of veritable rubbish? Perhaps you who holds yourself in high esteem, forgive me if i am mistaken, considers it the situation an inverse where you write 3 golden words for every piece of trash.
I don't mean to come across as pretentious with the whole credibility thing. Of course our 'reputations' on this forum don't matter. But for whatever it is worth, I have decided to publicly put my view of the future to the test. At present, few people here take anything I say about the inexorable disasters of the 21st century very seriously. My expectation is that if I'm correct about the economic meltdown, some may begin to take the rest of what I've said more seriously. Believe it or not, it was never my intention to simply stand around proselytising doom. I only do that because people stubbornly refuse to accept it. Among those who do accept it, I would prefer to have the next part of the conversation, namely, how do we survive in this new world, and what part can we play to mitigate the damage and make sure something beneficial comes out of the collapse scenario?
I also don't mean to imply you are an ignoramus, simply that you've said yourself you aren't that well acquainted with economics. By no means am I a professional myself, but I don't think you need to be to realise:
1. Central banks are printing money as though the global economy is in freefall. Across the world, countries are peddling almost $200bil in quantitative easing per month. That's more than they were printing in the depths of the GFC.
2. Interest rates have been stuck at zero or almost zero (ZIRP) for eight years. This has never happened before in history. ZIRP was intended as an emergency short-term measure. The fact global economies can only grow with cheap or even free credit not only indicates they are not recovering, it also inflates bubbles much like the one that caused the GFC.
3. Negative interest rate policy (NIRP) was unheard of by anybody 18 months ago... since then it has spread from Japan to a quarter of the world. This is sheer desperation and a sign things are not going well at all. It's also bottling up the economic volcano and making sure it'll be even more painful when it blows. Also, it's only actually working in one country.
4. The bankers responsible for the Global Financial Crisis were not punished, they were rewarded. This has only incentivised the same predatory lending that led to the GFC. The banks that were too big to fail in 2008 are now bigger. Investors now expect and count on bank bailouts. Seriously, that's not how it's supposed to work.
5. Spending power of the middle class is diminishing as the middle class is disappearing. The average American family can no longer afford a $500 medical bill without borrowing money or selling something. Minimum wage has not improved in 40 years. Yet the consumer dollar is the one thing keeping the US out of recession.
6. Mortgage bubble (again). Subprime auto loan bubble (again). Tech bubble. Student loan bubble. How are companies generally coping with all this? Stock buybacks.
7. Trump.
8. The European banking crisis, which has kicked into high gear since Brexit.
9. China. 'Nuff said. (Also, they're not growing at 6.7%. Really. They're not.)
10. While you're right global debt isn't a problem in and of itself, it becomes a problem when you're in recession and unable to muster the capital to pay it off... and doubly so when the era of cheap credit runs dry. Worst case for the US, they get put in the awkward position of having to print even more money to pay their creditors, which could lead to hyperinflation. For other nations, they're looking at catastrophic defaults and the deaths of their currencies. Also, Trump is going to have to raise the debt ceiling in March. Claims that skyrocketing debt isn't a problem, are siren calls.
11. The oil glut has caused mass defaults and bankruptcy across the industry, and led to severe geopolitical instability.
12. Global trade is at its slowest pace since the GFC.
13. Last but not least - the world is already in a minor depression and has been for an entire decade now. If growth was still strong, I might buy the 'secular stagnation' argument, or that we're about to see another run-of-the-mill recession. But every indicator tells me nations have been rendered unable to expand meaningfully. The US can't breach the 3% growth per quarter ceiling. It's being called the worst recovery since WWII, and of course, whether you're recovering or not depends solely upon how rich you are. How bad was the GFC that it gets compared to a world war?
Now, tell me, the next time there's a recession, how are they going to combat it?
Can't drop interest rates. They're as low as they can go.
Can't keep printing money. It's already at record levels and wreaking havoc in the process.
Can't even bail out some of the biggest banks that are at risk this time. Merkel has made it clear Deutsche Bank, with its $72tril in derivatives, will be allowed to fall (so she can get a fourth term).
The entire world economy is now running on unprecedented emergency measures - and they're not even working.
Final question. Keeping in mind that the US goes into recession every seven years on average. Is a crisis imminent? If you're not convinced yet, give it 16 more days.
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