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India Watch Thread

India

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#1
Yuli Ban

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The world's cheapest smartphone is cheaper than expected, launches in India for $4

A little-known Indian company is launching the cheapest smartphone in the world today. The Freedom 251, manufactured by Ringing Bells, is priced at just Rs 251 (under $4). Affordable and feature-rich, it could play a significant role in connecting India, where smartphone usage and Internet connectivity still remain a work in progress.

 

The Freedom 251 has a 4-inch display, 1.3GHz quad-core processor, 1GB RAM, and a 1,450 mAh battery. It comes with a 3.2-megapixel rear camera and a 0.3-megapixel front camera. The phone also comes with 8GB of internal storage, which can be expanded by another 32GB using a microSD card.

Surprisingly for its price, the Freedom 251 will run on Android Lollipop 5.1 and comes pre-installed with several apps. Besides Facebook, YouTube, Google Play and WhatsApp, it has apps that will be useful to farmers, fishermen and women, such as Swachh Bharat, Farmer, Medical and Women Safety.

Founded in 2015, Ringing Bells has launched four smartphones until now, including a 4G phone priced at Rs 2,999 ($44). It says that the phone has been developed with the support of the government's Make in India campaign that encourages local manufacturing. It still remains to be seen how the phone is so cheap, and whether it has been subsidised by the government.

Ringing Bells has said that the phone comes with a one-year warranty and be serviced at over 650 centres across the country. Bookings for the Freedom 251 open on Feb. 18 at 6 a.m. and close on Feb. 21 at 8 p.m., with the deliveries being completed by June 30.

The launch is significant for India, the second-largest smartphone market in the world after China, and the fastest growing smartphone markets in the world.

Imagine that happening here. 

"I got $10; I'm gonna go to the dollar store to pick up some chips, bread, and a smartphone. Want anything?"


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#2
Yuli Ban

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As of 30 November, 2016, India is in a state of panic and has entered the first stages of economic collapse.
 
_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
South Korea's imploding, and it's only now that the forum really started talking about it. 
India's imploding, and there wasn't even a dedicated thread on it until now.
 
So, what the hell's happening here? Well, on 8 November, PM Modi did something unthinkably stupid— he declared all rupees worth Rs 500 and Rs 1000 totally, utterly worthless. Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes were literally 88% of all money in circulation in India. Oh, and he gave the country about 4 hours notice.
 
Imagine if the EU suddenly said that all Euro notes above €5 were worthless, or if the US government declared every note above $5 unusable. To add insult to injury, imagine this came completely out of left field at that. Like, Obama just calls a press briefing right now, at 8:30 PM EST, and says "Effective midnight, all bank notes from $5 on upwards will be rendered unusable and are no longer legal tender. $5, $10, $20, $50, and $100 bills can no longer be used for commercial exchange."
 
Society would basically shut down, wouldn't it?
 
And that's exactly what's happening in India right now. The stated intention was to crack down on 'black money', since most people in India didn't pay taxes and corruption was "rampant". But the actual result is Total. Societal. Meltdown.
Because what the fuck else was anyone expecting?

The rural poor— the majority of India's population, mind you— are the ones most affected by this. A Rs 500 bill sounds like a lot to us, but it's sort of like comparing the dollar to the yen. Rs 500 = ~$7. We're talking about families who have, maybe, $100 saved up because they earn a little over $1,000 a year, if that. They now can't use any of that. All of their money— gone. They can try to exchange it, but there's a limited supply of new bank notes, bank notes everyone's trying to get.
Imagine waking up tomorrow morning to discover all the money you have saved up and most of the money in your pocket is now worthless. You can't do much more with it than use it at vending machines. Bring it to a shop, and they can't accept it. Fill up on gas and pay with bills? No can do. You got paid yesterday and cashed it out, and most of that money was in large bills? Congratulations— you're broke.
 
The banks have run out of money within hours. Same deal with ATMs.
 
Fact is, no one was prepared for this. 
 
It's not all bad, of course. This is basically going to promote the beginning of a digital economy. Hopefully, cryptocurrencies will take off in India soon.
 
India's Demonetization: Time for a Digital Economy
India Dreams Of Cashless Society As Demonetization Nightmare Unfolds


"But Yuli, surely 'economic collapse' is a little extreme?"

True, this is only going to be temporary chaos. In fact, I bet that the whole thing will have blown over by January or so. But the problem is that the old saying is still true: society is three square meals away from anarchy. Many, many people have already missed one square meal. Panic is setting in. When humans panic, irrationality takes over. Irrational behavior leads to wacky things. And despite all of this, India isn't actually turning on Modi (yet) because they perceived corruption to be a greater sin.

 

I also believe that we're going to see a Great Financial Crisis in the coming months. For India, this is just the beginning, hence why I said they're in the first stages of economic collapse. If anything, this is lubing them up for what's to come.


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#3
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https://www.google.c...-android-google

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#4
Maximus

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What. The. Fuck. 

 

God damn it, India. You were supposed to be the liberal democratic world's answer to China, Asia's second superpower. You were the chosen one. 


If the world should blow itself up, the last audible voice would be that of an expert saying it can't be done. -Peter Ustinov
 

#5
Raklian

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What. The. Fuck. 

 

God damn it, India. You were supposed to be the liberal democratic world's answer to China, Asia's second superpower. You were the chosen one. 

 

Well, for now, America remains the democratic world's answer to China. It could be argued that's now even questionable.


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#6
Yuli Ban

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Global cash war has crippled India's economy

India GDP to slow dramatically after cash crunch

The dire consequences of India's demonetisation initiative

How PM Modi's note recall narrative has fallen apart
 


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#7
TranscendingGod

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The short term impact is evident. This was however never about the short term. The benefits are supposed to be long term. Either way the implementation of this was and is horribly inadequate.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#8
Yuli Ban

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#9
Yuli Ban

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One Month In, What's The Impact Of India's Demonetization Fiasco?

It's not looking good.

 

Now I expected India to already have picked its shit up by now. That's why I said that India was in the first stages of economic collapse, not actually experiencing economic collapse. I expected this to have blown over by February, right on time for the actual GFC. But the longer this drags on, the more it's starting to look like India might actually have stumbled. Modi did not expect the transition to be this rough, and there's definitely growing murmurs of discontent.

 

India's Central Bank Denied Its Big Payday As Demonetization Flops

 

All Pain, No Gain: India's Failed Demonetization Is Lesson to All

 

India’s Demonetization Project: Economic Destabilization of an Entire Country, “A Monumental Management Failure”

 

Personally, I think that a transition to a digital economy is a good idea, and I can't imagine most people would be for perpetuating corruption and black money. This just wasn't the way to do it.

 

I don't doubt this was done with good intentions. However, as Ned Flanders once said, you can't live in good intentions.


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#10
Yuli Ban

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India's Economy Surpasses That Of Great Britain

As Theresa May returned home from her unsuccessful visit to India, she would bear witness to another relegation for the UK: India’s economy will be larger than the UK’s, for the first time in more than 100 years. This dramatic shift has been driven by India’s rapid economic growth over the past 25 years as well as Britain's recent woes, particularly with the Brexit. Once expected to overtake the UK GDP in 2020, the surpasso has been accelerated by the nearly 20% decline in the value of the pound over the last 12 months, consequently UK’s 2016 GDP of GBP 1.87 trillion converts to $2.29 trillion at exchange rate of ~GBP 0.81 per $1, whereas India’s GDP of INR 153 trillion converts to $2.30 trillion at exchange rate of ~INR 66.6 per $1. Furthermore, this gap is expected to widen as India grows at 6 to 8% p.a. compared to UK’s growth of 1 to 2% p.a. until 2020, and likely beyond. Even if the currencies fluctuate that modify these figures to rough equality, the verdict is clear that India’s economy has surpassed that of the UK based on future growth prospects.

Once India cleans their head and gets back to normal, hopefully their economy will begin exploding again. Because this is rather interesting— the UK got their asses kicked by Brexit, and India stuck their heads up their ass with an ungodly botched demonetization, so I'm not sure this is a fair example of one nation surpassing another or if it's an example of one piss-covered hobo passing out before the other.

 

Also: https://en.wikipedia...y_GDP_(nominal)

 

Right now, it still looks like it's based on pre-Brexit numbers. The UK is #5, ahead of France and India. As we've already heard, France flew ahead of England months ago, and now India's done the same. Of course, maybe that's also because it's measuring nominal GDP?


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#11
wjfox

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the UK got their asses kicked by Brexit

 

And we haven't even triggered Article 50 yet!


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#12
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Investing in infrastructure, science, r&D and education works everytime. Too bad the west thinks Austerity and liberterianism is somehow a good idea. damn.


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To follow my work on tropical cyclones


#13
Maximus

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India's Economy Surpasses That Of Great Britain

 

Right now, it still looks like it's based on pre-Brexit numbers. The UK is #5, ahead of France and India. As we've already heard, France flew ahead of England months ago, and now India's done the same. Of course, maybe that's also because it's measuring nominal GDP?

 

 

Hmm, I wonder what real GDP looks like...this simply reflects a change in currency exchange rates, not a dramatic increase in industrial capacity. I don't doubt that the UK's going to continue suffering (uncertainty is deadly for investment spending), but in the short term, a fall in the value of the pound may reflect increased exports and decreased demand for imports. 


If the world should blow itself up, the last audible voice would be that of an expert saying it can't be done. -Peter Ustinov
 

#14
Yuli Ban

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India's small businesses facing 'apocalypse' amid biggest financial experiment in history

Down one of the hundreds of dusty lanes that make up Gandhi Nagar market, Delhi’s largest textile bazaar, the small factory where Neeraj Sharma produces girls’ jeans is quiet.
“Normally you couldn’t walk in here,” he says, ambling across the concrete shop floor, past dormant sewing machines and piles of unfinished denim.
Sharma estimates around 80% of his workforce have left Delhi for their villages in the past month. “It’s good that they left,” he adds. “Because of this demonetisation problem, there’s no work for us either.”
India’s vast informal economy has been reeling since 8 November, the morning after India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, announced the sudden voiding of the country’s two most-used bank notes.
It is the largest-scale financial experiment in Indian history: gutting 14 trillion rupees – 86% of the currency in circulation – from the most cash-dependent major economy in the world.
More than a month on, India’s Reserve Bank has issued around 1.7 billion new notes, with less than one-third the value of what was removed. The sixth-largest economy in the world is running on 60% less currency than before. Lines outside banks continue to stretch, and India’s small business lobby says its members are facing an “apocalypse”. But Modi insists he isn’t done.
Initially intended to flush out the “black money” said to be hoarded by elites and criminals, the government now frames demonetisation as the first step in a “cashless” revolution to shift the billions of transactions undertaken each day in India online – and onto the radar of tax authorities.


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#15
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Kashmir militants suspected of bank heists as rupee recall hits funds

Police in the disputed state of Kashmir believe separatist groups are behind a spate of bank robberies across the region in the past 40 days, a new tactic indicating the militants’ finances could have been badly hit by the government’s demonetisation drive.
Three men armed with Kalashnikov rifles were involved in a robbery at a bank in Kashmir’s Pulwama district last Thursday, making off with nearly 1m rupees (£12,000) from the safe.
It was the fourth bank robbery in the region in the past three months, and the third since early November, when the Indian government announced the sudden scrapping of 1,000 and 500 rupee notes.


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#16
MarcZ

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All this talk of "cashless" society and other crap makes me cringe. 



#17
TranscendingGod

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Well it's a lot more than talk as is evident.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#18
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India Cash Ban Could Get Worse: “We Don’t Even Have Enough Money to Buy Food”

Behold, the power of banksters, and the very rapid shift into the cashless, digital control grid that has been an objective now for many decades.
 
Suddenly, things are moving faster than anyone could have imagined.
 
Officially, the government of India believes their demonetization efforts to haul in some 86% of the cash in circulation will bolster the economy and improve the situation for the world’s second most populous country.
 
But on the ground, and in reality, the pain is still spreading – and it could become even worse.
 
The cost of goods is increasing sharply and the poor and working classes are being hit hard… and many are still waiting in long bank lines to deposit what little they have.
 
Cash-related industries, which dominate Indian daily life, including tourism, shops, farming, vendors, day labor, jewelry and the informal industries are facing huge declines as cash bans have severely cut back their business.


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#19
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I WAS WRONG. I WAS TERRIBLY, TERRIBLY WRONG.
AS OF 26 JANUARY, 2017, INDIA REMAINS IN THE FIRST STAGES OF ECONOMIC COLLAPSE.
 
They blew it.
 



India banned 86 percent of its cash in November. It's causing suffering for the poor

About two and a half months ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on a radical experiment, pulling 86 percent of India’s cash out of circulation overnight in a bid to take on corruption. The sudden move threw the country’s mostly cash-based economy into total chaos, and tens of thousands of people took to the streets across India to protest.
The prime minister argued that while people might face temporary hardship, in the longer run the benefits to the economy would far outweigh the costs. Now, nearly three months into the experiment, it seems the challenges might just end up being significantly less temporary — and causing a great deal more hardship — than Modi originally anticipated.
One study, from the All India Manufacturers' Organization, found that micro and small-scale industries showed a whopping 35 percent job loss and a 50 percent decline in revenue in just the first 34 days since the policy went into effect, and that those numbers are likely to continue to increase in coming months. Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund said that Modi’s policy had caused India to lose its title as the world’s fastest-growing economy, after shaving a percentage point off its projection for India’s growth in 2016. Many of India’s small businesses that handle all their transactions in cash have facing crippling blows to their business.
 
The biggest issue with the rollout of the plan has been that the government hasn’t printed nearly enough of the new banknotes to replace the old ones. That has created a serious cash crunch, which has been a headache for people who are materially comfortable — but has created a genuine crisis for the millions in India who are less fortunate.
New York Times report published Wednesday has a collection of statistics and stories based on interviews with ordinary Indians which collectively suggest that demonetization has come at a steep cost for financially precarious households. The cash crunch has made it harder for ordinary Indians to put food on the table and finance cash-heavy activities like weddings.
Based on interviews at protests and spaces where day laborers gather, the Times found harrowing stories of suffering among working-class Indians due to lack of cash:

Many of them, even children, are forced to go without fruit, vegetables and milk — now unaffordable luxuries. Most had not paid apartment rents and their children’s school fees in the months since the cash ban. Many had sent their families back to their villages, and were ready to give up and follow if things did not turn around soon. Sending cash to the elderly parents they had long supported is now out of the question.


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#20
Yuli Ban

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Not only has the whole thing not blown over, but it's actually getting worse .
 

In Its Third Month, India’s Cash Shortage Begins to Bite

As is common in India, the workers said that although they had worked on Hero MotoCorp’s shop floor, wearing company uniforms, they had been formally employed by other contractors, meaning they could be let go more easily without benefits.
Sunil Kumar, 28, who had been earning 15,000 rupees a month, about $220, at Hero, said he had been supporting his wife and two children when he lost his job without notice Nov. 29. They immediately cut milk, green vegetables and fruit from their diets, including for their 3-month-old and 3-year-old children. Paying rent is out of the question.
“This is like a massacre for us,” he said. “My livelihood is gone after the cash ban. What do I do now?”
The decline in vegetable demand is so steep that the prices of eggplants, potatoes, cauliflower and tomatoes dropped between 42 percent and 78 percent, the NCDEX Institute of Commodity Markets and Research said.
In the first month alone after the currency ban, micro and small-scale service industries cut staff by 35 percent, the All India Manufacturers’ Organization said, based on a survey. It released a study this month saying that job losses in a variety of industries, including automobile parts, infrastructure and construction, would swell to as much as 35 percent by March.
The anecdotal evidence is painful. Mr. Rathore, whose wedding was postponed, is among 582 workers who reported losing their jobs at Hero MotoCorp in November and December, as the company suffered a 34 percent drop in two-wheeler sales in December from a year earlier. Hero did not respond to requests for comment.

I'll do a big January retrospect of the state of the global economy, but the fact that India hasn't already rebounded is very troubling.

 

Need I remind people that, just last year, the largest strike in human history occurred in India? 

The working class here is clearly class conscious, but they gave Modi the benefit of the doubt at the time because corruption really was that awful. But now it's looking like the supposed short-term benefits (rooting out black money) were largely a failure and there has been virtually no relief. Idealism dies easily when you're hungry.


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