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Labor


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35 replies to this topic

#1
TranscendingGod

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Okay so as you guys probably know we are seeing the development of driverless cars and what this potentially means is the loss of millions of jobs. Firstly we have truck drivers which number around 1.8 Million in the USA alone. So potentially 1.8 million jobs lost there. http://www.bls.gov/o...uck-drivers.htm Smaller but still significant are the quarter of a million jobs lost from taxi drivers. http://www.bls.gov/o...-chauffeurs.htm

So a 2 million estimate on the low end for driverless cars replacing workers. It will most likely be closer to 2.5 million or even 3 million considering all the other jobs involving driving that there are. It could be 4 million. Anyways a hell of lot of people.

Okay now we have this.

Now we could argue that "oh, this is just a pilot and it might not work etc." but that is really besides the point. Cashiers are more than likely going to lose their jobs as are myriads other people so we might as well confront that reality. Oh yeah how many cashiers? 3.5 million http://www.businessi...t-trump-2016-12

Okay Trump the restorer of jobs? That was funny the first time he said it. Now it is just sad. Oh yeah don't forget in all of this the fact that we are still going to be outsourcing jobs here in the US. http://fortune.com/2...ico-union-says/

Anyways the real question with labor is this. What are these people going to do? As the last article i posted says we should be focusing on retraining people for jobs that are going to be needed. Okay let us say we do this and train everyone to work with their minds instead of their bodies. First of all do you think this is feasible? Are we going to have a world teeming with engineers and scientists? A great world to be sure but for some reason i find it unlikely.

Okay so what if we cannot train these people quickly enough to adapt? Well we are left with only one option really. You see the government is going to have to do something. Why? Simply because millions of people are going to be out of a job and millions of discontent people are going to protest and do all that shabang that people do when they are faced with what is basically the end of their lives as they know it. So the government does not what this (as far as i am aware of) because this usually results in bad things historically speaking the least of which would seem to be the overthrowing of said government. So what other option do we have? Well UBI among other things (?) but UBI is the most prominent proposal. UBI or a lot of dead people? I know what you pessimists will say, oh, you conniving little peeves. Anyways there will be turmoil because there will be change.

Anyways the question is what will happen. Have your best guess whether you be pessimists or optimists. Whether you be libertarian or communist.

What i want to point out in this thread, which we have threads about, (technological unemployment... do we?) (Edit: Yeah we do because I made one myself but it was broader and was not imminent like this one and it was title "why humans are useless".) is that this will not happen in 20 or 30 years. Even considering the time that such developments take to refine and roll out we would be kidding ourselves to think that this is not happening ALREADY! I mean seriously as you all know we are losing more jobs to technology than we are to immigrants and outsourced labor. So this is simply saying that it will get worse or rather it is getting worse and fast.

What is the dealio? How are we going to come out of this? Dead as i know some will say or as some will say better dead but i don't care what you have to say just say it. I believe this is greater than any referendum, any exit vote, or any election of an obese orangutan.
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The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#2
Jakob

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First of all do you think this is feasible? Are we going to have a world teeming with engineers and scientists? A great world to be sure but for some reason i find it unlikely.

Michio Kaku seems to think so.


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#3
TranscendingGod

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First of all do you think this is feasible? Are we going to have a world teeming with engineers and scientists? A great world to be sure but for some reason i find it unlikely.

Michio Kaku seems to think so.

So you think that is where we are headed? You think all these cashiers and truck drivers will be able to go to college and learn the stuff they need? I mean I think they can if they apply themselves but will they? More importantly however is the question of how will we pay for it? Most of these people are not going to have the funds to pay for college. We will probably need new colleges. Free college?

What is going to happen man!? Lol seriously though what do you see happening.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#4
Mike the average

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Well the common counter argument is that all through history we were faced with new technology which was initially feared as 'taking jobs' but new technology created new industry, which created new jobs.

 

A robot and AI does not by default have human desires.  Many people seem to have it in their heads that AI is going to be a bunch of decepticons with a leader like Megatron.  You only get to this scenario if humans choose it.


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#5
caltrek

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I first posted this in another thread.  I have added a couple of points that I did not earlier include:

 

Any downturn in the U.S. economy can be countered through various stimulative mechanisms including:

 

  1. An easing of the money supply by the Fed (admittedly not under GOP control). The Fed discount rate has been staying a historic lows for quie some time now, but recently actually increased that rate.
  2. Stimulative spending by the federal government including:
    1. Increased expenditures on the military.
    2. Expenditures on public works programs.
    3. An expansion of social welfare and related transfer payments.
  3. A raise in the minimum wage.  This would give workers more spending power thus stimulating demand.  There is an argument that such a raise quickens the rate of replacement of those jobs by robots and AI. To me it would seem that is a more long-term consequence.

How to finance accelerated spending:

 

  1. Borrowing.  Relatively speaking the U.S. is well positioned in terms of investor confidence.  I do have a concern about the current size of the U.S. debt.  Relative to GNP, it s still under historic highs, but is creeping toward those levels.
  2. Taxation.  This would be the hard political pill for the GOP to swallow.  So hard that it might refrain from solving the problem out of an exaggerated philosophical inclination against such a solution.  Now I am not talking about just any taxation.  I am talking about taxation aimed at the economic elite of this country. A tax that would be highly progressive in nature. Relying upon such a source of taxes would give the government a revenue stream from which it could match revenues with expenditures and/or provide a revenue stream to borrow funds.

Once a round of stimulative spending is undertaken the government would also recoup revenues through payroll taxes.  State and local governments would also see their sales tax revenues increase. Multiplier effects would bring additional benefits in this regard.

 

Increased demand brings an increase in jobs.  Sure, mechanization and the employment of robots and AI  may take away some of those jobs, but not all of them, especially in the short term.

 

Worker-owned co-ops in which workers own the means of production would certainly be helpful in dealing with these issues.  New technologies that displace jobs would simply result in workers collecting profits at lower rates of labor.

 

There is also the factor that old fashion work is a way of life.  There is thus a political motivation for defending that way of life even at the cost of potentially increased productivity. We are already seeing a huge, if belated, reaction to the loss of jobs due to overseas competition. Protectionism might restore some of those jobs, or at least defend those that remain. 


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The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#6
caltrek

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Speaking of raising the minimum wage:

 

Fight For $15 Fights With Nationwide Strike Today

 

https://ourfuture.org/20161129/fight-for-15-fights-with-nationwide-strike-today

 

Introduction:

 

 

When do we want a $15 minimum wage? We want it now.

 

43% of the workforce — 60 million workers — are paid less than $15/hour. People will continue to fight for decent wages, the election of Donald “Wages Are Too High” Trump notwithstanding.

Fight for $15 is striking today, demanding a $15 minimum wage. Fight for $15’s November 29 “Day of Disruption” brought strikes to 340 cities across the country today, with tens of thousands participating. Yesha Callahan reported for The Root, in “Minimum Wage Workers Across the Country Are #FightingFor15“:

 

From nonunion workers at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago to McDonald’s employees in New York City, people are having their voices heard, and have some heavy-hitter celebrities supporting them. Tuesday has been appropriately referred to as “Disruption Tuesday,” with underpaid workers walking off the job.

 

The Problem

Why is this so important that people would make the sacrifice to strike, losing a days pay, risking their jobs and even arrest? Today’s $7.25/hr minimum wage is extremely low. For example, minimum-wage workers do not make enough to rent an apartment — pretty much anywhere. Huffington Post’s Kate Abbey-Lambertz shows why, in “Here’s How Much Money You Need To Afford Rent In Every State“:

 

RTSTWFE-1024x683.jpg

 

Demonstrators participate in the “Fight for $15” wage protest at San Diego International Airport, also known as Lindbergh Field, in San Diego, California, U.S. November 29, 2016.

REUTERS/Mike Blake – RTSTWFE


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#7
TranscendingGod

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So by spending more we can produce more jobs? You mentioned the military and public works but is that really going to solve the problem of millions of jobs being lost?

The fundamental reason that we are seeing this backlash to outsourcing of jobs is, in my opinion, not because it was a way of life but rather because they lose their comfy jobs that pay $30 an hour and can't find similar paying work.

You say increased demand but where are we going to find the demand or rather in what sector are we going to find the demand to replace millions of jobs?

Worker-owned co-ops? So everyone becomes a capitalist? It does not take a lot of people to own a couple of machines. How would this work? Would millions repartition the profits from a few machines?

As to Mike that is the argument but we have never seen such displacement so quickly. Also you have to ask yourself when will not only the lower echelon be displaced but also the upper intellectual ones?

Edit: I do agree with raising the minimum wage but people spending more on clothes, tv's, food or really any commodity is not a fix to the problem of employment. Why? The simple reason that every industry is seeing to some extent the effects of automation and soon will see a more severe case of it.

The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#8
caltrek

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So by spending more we can produce more jobs? You mentioned the military and public works but is that really going to solve the problem of millions of jobs being lost?

 

 

Depends on how much is invested and what type of investments are made.  Also, how that might work in conjunction with other solutions I have offered.

 

 

 

The fundamental reason that we are seeing this backlash to outsourcing of jobs is, in my opinion, not because it was a way of life but rather because they lose their comfy jobs that pay $30 an hour and can't find similar paying work. 

 

I am not sure those are two distinct and fundamentally different things.  Those two things being "a way of life" and loss of "comfy jobs that pay $30 an hour." 

 

 

 

You say increased demand but where are we going to find the demand or rather in what sector are we going to find the demand to replace millions of jobs? 

 

 

That would be determined by:

 

  1. The market place.
  2. Government spending policy.

 

 

 

Worker-owned co-ops? So everyone becomes a capitalist? It does not take a lot of people to own a couple of machines. How would this work? Would millions repartition the profits from a few machines?

 

 

It has that potential.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#9
TranscendingGod

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Well by way of life i thought you meant some sort of fundamental philosophical reason. I mean there is a reason that one needs to have purpose in one's life but i don't think the current system that we have is the best way of fulfilling one's potential or purpose. If you are using way of life as something similar to way of sustenance then yeah i agree. 

 

I don't know I guess i need to read some more for your proposition to win me over. Maybe i can read more about the times we have given stimulus packages, raised the minimum wage, or all the other things you propose and the effects that they had then. Then i could examine the scale of what is going to potentially happen and whether your proposals could indeed scale up to meet our needs. I'll put that on my to do list. Unless you want to spend some time enlightening me on the history of similar programs. Although i am sure nothing has ever been done close to the scale or thoroughness of what you are proposing. 


The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#10
caltrek

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Some of FDR's programs and the American Resource and Recovery Act come to mind. A less optimistic example would be World War II which did have the effect of stimulating the economy. These were not examples of extensive use of worker owned co-ops.

 

Spain and some experiments in Cleveland present scale-able models regarding worker co-ops.

 

Here is an interesting article regarding Spain:

 

http://www.bbc.com/n...europe-19213425


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#11
caltrek

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Here is a question for those who insist that automation/robots/AI are taking all of our jobs.  How is it that the employment to population ratio in the early 50's was under 56% and it is now over 59%? 

 

 

http://www.macrotren...ion-ratio-chart


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#12
TranscendingGod

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Yeah that is true more and more of the population have been employed compared to historical numbers. The question is whether the automation we are seeing today is fundamentally more sophisticated and more capable. In other words how vast will its impact be? We have 2 great examples that are almost happening simultaneously. That seems to me to be indicative of something more than the historical antecedent of automation. Nevertheless we are losing jobs to automation just as it is true that we are losing jobs to outsourcing business the question is will we lose enough where we can't make it up by adding jobs. You've given ways we could potentially circumvent that so we will see.
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The growth of computation is doubly exponential growth. 


#13
Erowind

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Many people seem to have it in their heads that AI is going to be a bunch of decepticons with a leader like Megatron.  You only get to this scenario if humans choose it.

 

Over lunch, me and a large a group were having a conversation about what you would do if you were emperor of the world for a day. When it came time for me to speak I said that I would drop all military budgets and dump trillions into AI research, as AI could govern many parts of our world better than any human. Immediately from across the table a girl responded, "Haven't you ever watched Age of Ultron?" And of course that one statement based of a bloody piece of fiction was enough for everyone to think that my idea was crazy. Before I could even respond the group had moved on to the next person and everyone there either agreed because of mob mentality or now genuinely believes that AI will kill us all because a Marvel movie says so.

I wonder how many people don't actually form their own opinions and self criticize there beliefs, but instead form all of their beliefs based on hearsay and pop culture.

 

I point out this if AI were to kill us, we would be dead before we even knew there was a problem.


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#14
caltrek

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Here is another example related to worker co-ops:

 

The Arizmendi Association

 

http://arizmendi.coop/

 

Extract:

 

The Arizmendi Association of Cooperatives, founded in 1996, develops democratically run businesses whose worker-owners are in control of their own livelihood.  The first Arizmendi Bakery opened in Oakland in 1997, with a production model based on the Cheese Board in Berkeley, which generously donated its recipes and know-how to the project.  There are now six thriving bakeries in the Bay Area.  Our worker-owners bring a variety of life experiences to their work and reflect diverse backgrounds in employment, education, and culture. What unites us is our love of baking and our dedication to democracy in the workplace.

 

The Arizmendi Association is itself a cooperative made up of seven member businesses: six cooperative bakeries and a development and support collective. Members share a common mission, share ongoing accounting, legal, educational and other support services, and support the development of new member cooperatives by the Association.

 

Our organizational mission is to:

·         Assure opportunities for workers’ control of their livelihood with fairness and equality for all

·         Develop as many dignified, decently paid (living “wage” or better) work opportunities as possible through the development of new cooperatives

·         Promote cooperative economic democracy as a sustainable and humane option for our society

·         Create work environments that foster profound personal as well as professional growth

·         Exhibit excellence in production and serving our local communities

·         Provide continuing technical, educational and organizational support and services to member cooperatives

·         Seek to link with other cooperatives for mutual support, and to

·         Provide information and education to the larger community about cooperatives

 

Arizmendi is the shortened name of Jose Maria Arizmendiarrieta, a young priest who inspired and helped found the Mondragon Cooperatives in the Basque Country of Spain…These cooperatives continue to be inspired by Arizmendi’s belief that worker ownership and participation in the workplace should be an integral part of a just and democratic society. Through their financial, technical and organizational alliances, the Mondragn Cooperative Corporation helps develop new businesses, supports existing ones, and facilitates mutual support among member cooperatives. The name Arizmendi acknowledges his inspiration in our effort to expand democratically owned and operated workplaces.

Jose.jpg

 

Jose Maria Arizmendiarrieta


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#15
caltrek

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Cooperation Jackson

 

http://www.cooperati...kson.org/intro/

 

Introduction:

 

Cooperation Jackson is an emerging vehicle for sustainable community development, economic democracy,

 community ownership.

 

Our vision is to develop a cooperative network based in Jackson, Mississippi that will consist of four interconnected and interdependent institutions: an emerging federation of local worker cooperatives, a developing cooperative incubator, a cooperative education and training center (the Lumumba Center for Economic Democracy and Development), and a cooperative bank or financial institution.

 

Cooperation Jackson’s basic theory of change is centered on the position that organizing and empowering the structurally under and unemployed sectors of the working class, particularly from Black and Latino communities, to build worker organized and owned cooperatives will be a catalyst for the democratization of our economy and society overall.

 

Cooperation Jackson believes that we can replace the current socio-economic system of exploitation, exclusion and the destruction of the environment with a proven democratic alternative. An alternative built on equity, cooperation, worker democracy, and environmental sustainability to provide meaningful living wage jobs, reduce racial inequities, and build community wealth. It is our position and experience, that when marginalized and excluded workers and communities are organized in democratic organizations and social movements they become a force capable of making transformative social advances.

 

Individuals deeply moved by the Jackson-Kush Plan who are striving to see its vision of economic democracy realized launched Cooperation Jackson in the fall of 2013.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#16
caltrek

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Worker Centers and the Organizing of Retail sector Workers

 

http://www.truth-out...-retail-workers

 

Extract:

 

Ikeler also sees a lot of potential in the worker center model. Worker centers like the Retail Action Project, which Ikeler has studied extensively, give workers a place to go to form communities, talk about work conditions and plan campaigns. Another clear benefit is that worker centers help cultivate a sense of occupational identity in a sector of the economy known for deskilling workers in order to make them more easily replaceable.

 

"A strong occupational identity -- where workers are very committed to a craft, to an occupation -- this has often been a source of collective identity and resistance," Ikeler says. "If workers see themselves as part of an occupational community they may be more likely to form organizations together and put up collective resistance."

 

Worker centers can't replace unions, but the two types of organizations can work together.

 

"To see success," Ikeler says, "to see large-scale organizing and an advance for the low-wage service sector, we're going to have to see greater synergy than we've previously seen between worker centers and national unions that are actually willing to take risks and use some of their treasury by going on strike."

 

When asked if he saw any bright spots on the retail scene today, Ikeler pointed to a recent victory by Stop & Shop workers in New England. After threatening to strike in February, the UFCW negotiated a favorable contract for its 35,000 members in the region, including a quicker route to a $15 hourly wage and a promise from the company to add 480 new full time jobs over the next three years.

2017_0115rw_.jpg

 

Fast-food and retail workers march in support of raising the minimum wage in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

(Photo: Wisconsin Jobs Now)


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#17
caltrek

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Momentive Workers Strike

 

https://ourfuture.or...pick-cuts-wages

 

Introduction:

 

More than 700 Momentive Performance Materials chemical plant workers in Waterford, NY have been on strike since November 2. The Albany Times Union explains why, in a report about the striking Waterford chemical plant,

 

Workers rejected a contract offer that would cut vacation time, reduce 401(k) benefits, increase health insurance costs and slice retiree health insurance and other benefits. The union had approved earlier cuts in pay and benefits in contracts with Momentive in 2010 and 2013, but workers said a third consecutive contract to cut benefits for workers and retirees, some of whom have ongoing health problems linked to years of working with toxic chemicals, is unfair.

 

Pay cuts, benefit cuts, cutting retiree’s pensions… The workers’ standard of living has been driven down since the company was bought by a hedge fund in 2006 including complete elimination of healthcare and life insurance for retirees. Some wages have been slashed up to 50% and jobs have been outsourced to intimidate remaining workers.

 

So they are on strike.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#18
caltrek

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Andrew Puzder Withdraws as Labor Nominee

 

https://www.washingt...m=.5b297bed6d0e

 

Extract:

 

Andrew Puzder, President Trump’s labor secretary nominee, withdrew from consideration Wednesday amid growing resistance from Senate Republicans centered primarily on Puzder’s past employment of an undocumented housekeeper…

 

Puzder’s fate amplified the deteriorating relationship between the White House and Capitol Hill, where bipartisan support grew Wednesday for expanded investigations into ties between Trump, his presidential campaign and Russian officials….

 

A top Trump campaign supporter, Puzder had attracted widespread criticism regarding his business record and personal background. He was set to testify Thursday at a confirmation hearing that had been delayed for weeks to allow for the completion of an ethics review of his vast personal wealth….

 

Critics have railed against Puzder’s positions against minimum-wage increases and more generous overtime benefits. Some have also accused him of sexism, pointed to a rancorous divorce that involved later-recanted allegations of domestic abuse as well as racy TV ads run by his restaurant chains that featured scantily clad women eating hamburgers.

 

But it was Puzder’s hiring of an undocumented worker for domestic work — as well as his support for more liberalized immigration policies — that pushed several Senate Republicans away, they said.

Trump_Labor_Secretary_69171.jpg-1f870-58

 

Donald Trump pictured with Andrew Pudzer in photo taken November 19, 2016

Carolyn Caster-Associated Press


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#19
Sciencerocks

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First of all do you think this is feasible? Are we going to have a world teeming with engineers and scientists? A great world to be sure but for some reason i find it unlikely.

Michio Kaku seems to think so.

 

 

 

Humanity would be better off using machines to do the grunt work, having tons of scientist and using a tax on businesses to feed the rest of the population with those machines.


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#20
Jakob

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What...no. That's the complete opposite of what I was saying.


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