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China Watch Thread

China Asia CCP Taiwan Hong Kong East Asia economy society politics military

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Poll: PRC vs. USA (21 member(s) have cast votes)

When will China surpass the USA?

  1. They already have (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. 2018-2024 (11 votes [52.38%])

    Percentage of vote: 52.38%

  3. 2025-2029 (7 votes [33.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 33.33%

  4. After 2030 (2 votes [9.52%])

    Percentage of vote: 9.52%

  5. Never (1 votes [4.76%])

    Percentage of vote: 4.76%

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#821
Maximus

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WTO case eyed over China’s forced technology transfers

 

Japan, the United States and the European Union are considering jointly filing a case against China at the World Trade Organization over Chinese rules that effectively force foreign companies to transfer technologies to domestic firms, The Yomiuri Shimbun has learned.

 
The move is aimed at protecting the technologies and other intellectual property of companies that enter the Chinese market.
 
Japan, the United States and the European Union are working together to curb Chinese policies designed to aid its own companies in the massive domestic market.
 
The Japan-U.S.-EU side started full-fledged discussions on this issue in January and are preparing to jointly file the case as early as March. In 2012, Japan, the United States and the European Union jointly lodged a formal complaint against China over its restrictions on exports of rare earth metals and other materials, but this latest case would be the first to involve the technology transfer issue.

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#822
wjfox

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China proposes to let Xi Jinping extend presidency beyond 2023

 

China's governing Communist Party has proposed removing a clause in the constitution which limits presidencies to two five-year terms.

 

The move would allow the current President Xi Jinping to remain as leader after he is due to step down.

 

There had been widespread speculation that Mr Xi would seek to extend his presidency beyond 2023.

 

Party congress last year saw him cement his status as the most powerful leader since the late Mao Zedong.

 

His ideology was also enshrined in the party's constitution at the congress, and in a break with convention, no obvious successor was unveiled.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...-china-43188739

 

 

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#823
BarkEater93

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The Future of Xi's Presidency

 

171228130559-xi-jinping-military-1221-01

 

For a long time I have made the point of addressing Xi’s growing dictatorship, why he has done this and what it will mean for the future of China. For those people paying any attention to China, none of this should come as a surprise.
 
China has entered a new era; Xi has said so himself. He knows China has entered an era in which it can survive only by accepting the permanent reality of dictatorship. Anything less could rip China apart.  
 
Xi has had to gain power to clamp down hard on Chinese society, with the goal to suppress social unrest and to keep the country held together. He has had to conduct an aggressive purging campaign to eliminate potential rivals that may endanger him achieving his goals. His power has grown to the point where no one can dare touch him. And now he can bend the rules; his presidency may last indefinitely. 
 
The problem with this plan should already be clear: If no one can rival him, what happens when he can no longer stay in power? Xi has gained control of the Communist Party and has done everything in his power to keep China firmly within his grasp. What happens when he can no longer hold on?
 
Xi is 64 years old --- he’s no spring chicken. What happens if he gets a heart attack and dies tomorrow? What happens to the Communist Party, and their ability to maintain power? More importantly, what happens to China? 


#824
caltrek

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Xi is 64 years old --- he’s no spring chicken. What happens if he gets a heart attack and dies tomorrow? What happens to the Communist Party, and their ability to maintain power? More importantly, what happens to China? 

 

 

I don't have answers to that question of which I am 100% certain.  I would point out that the Chinese political system has survived the death of Mao, and then the the death of Deng Xiaoping.  So, the current Chinese system has demonstrated an ability to transition after the death of the leading strong man.  The Communist Party style of collective leadership means that another strong man will likely emerge after a period of a more collective style of leadership.  Such a strong man will most likely be a first among equals, and then gradually accumulate more centralized power to himself (and that person would most likely be a man).

 

Eventually, such a system could collapse, just as the dynasties of old some times collapsed.  That could entail a loss of power for the Communist Party.  I don't see such a collapse happening any time soon, but there are signs of party elites hedging their bets.  For example, buying up property in foreign countries, presumably out of a fear that the worst might happen and they will feel compelled to leave China.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#825
Maximus

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Xi is 64 years old --- he’s no spring chicken. What happens if he gets a heart attack and dies tomorrow? What happens to the Communist Party, and their ability to maintain power? More importantly, what happens to China? 

Caltrek made a good point about the CPC's ability to survive the death of strongman leaders. I wouldn't worry about China descending into social and political chaos is Xi dies while he is still in power. What I'm worried about is who will take Xi's place. Yes, Xi is laying the groundwork for a 1984-esque totalitarian state within China (social credit scores and using facial recognition to track minorities, among other things), and it's no secret that China hasn't moved closer to democracy or greater respect for human rights under his reign. However, as a great power, China has free reign to enact whatever domestic policies it sees fit- and there's nothing the US, Europe, or anyone else can do about it. Thus, what should alarm us more is how China's behaviour towards its neighbours and the West has changed under Xi. Since Deng Xiaoping started China's Economic Miracle in 1979, China underwent a quiet, "peaceful rise". Its economy boomed, hundreds of millions were lifted out of poverty, and it became the world's manufacturing base. However, as anyone with a head on their shoulders could have told you, this newfound economic superpower status would soon translate into military and diplomatic clout. Under Xi, this transition to an "assertive rise" has been clear as day. Some examples include China's military buildup in the South China Sea, the multi-hundred billion dollar One Belt One Road projects, String of Pearls, and founding of the AIIB. Of course, as a great power, China has every right to engage in these activities- I'm not saying that it shouldn't. But let's call it what it is; a direct challenge to the American led liberal order's interests in Asia, and to a lesser degree around the world. 

 

When looking at questions of how a certain country will behave in the future, I think it's very useful to take a good look at what trends have been underpinning foreign policy for the past few years. Two trends that stand out are increasing consolidation of power by the CPC (moreover by Xi himself), and increasing military assertiveness against the United States and neighbouring states (Japan, India, Taiwan, among others). Now, I'll admit that I've had almost zero interaction with Chinese users on forums like this, so I can't speak about how "nationalistic" or otherwise the average Chinese Joe may be. However, from most news articles I've read, it would seem that many Chinese approve of Xi standing up to America.This doesn't make them downright fanatic fascists, of course. But clearly there is some level of anti-Americanism going on in China- at least that's how much we can deduce from the CPC's actions. 

 

That said, Xi is no madman. In his lifetime, he witnessed China rise from poverty stricken, backwards agrarian craphole, to near-superpower status. He also witnessed two giants, the USSR and US face each other down with nuclear weapons for decades, almost ending the world on several occasions. He witnessed the collapse of the USSR, and while China and the USSR didn't have much love for each other, the collapse of an ideological relative, albeit a distant one, must still have been shocking. 

Xi has also witnessed American hegemony, which for almost three decades has truly spread American interests on a global scale. He's seen great powers rise, confront each other, fall, and dominate. He's confident enough to facilitate China's rise to superpower status, and smart, cautious, and pragmatic enough to know that moving too fast could lead to open war with the US.

 

As time moves on, Chinese politicians will grow more accustomed to China being a great power. Whoever succeeds Xi Jinping will absolutely not steer China towards some sort of reconciliation with Western ideals of democracy or human rights. The trends that have underpinned Chinese foreign policy under Xi are the bedrock of China's policy in the future. Whoever follows will not only further promote these trends, but could well decide to accelerate China's rise. Xi could eventually be seen as a dinosaur, too cautious to end American influence in what China sees as its rightful and historic sphere of influence. As the saying goes, better the devil you know. 


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