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The Future of Latin America

South America Brazil Argentina Americas Western Hemisphere Peru Uruguay Chile USAN

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#1
BarkEater93

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When we think of the future most of us don’t think of South America. Except for the people who actually live on the continent, it seems to have the reputation of being a forgotten region, almost like an island of still-developing countries that don’t get themselves involved much in global affairs. I think that’s a big mistake to make. What I’m going to say here is probably going to seem very far-fetched. But before making my wild claims about South America I have to back myself up with info on the Americas in general:
 
The Americas are called the “New World” for a reason, they were some of the last regions of the world to be colonized, both by early humans and the subsequent Europeans that came to dominate the world until the last century (only Australasia and of course Antarctica were occupied later). That means the Americas are actually still in their early stages of development. It may not seem like it given that the U.S., for example, is a well-established and highly advanced industrialized society, and has been a major power for quite some time. The first European colonies in the Americas were established almost 500 years ago, and they’ve been pretty widespread for at least the last 250 or so. But really, that’s young when you take into context the timeframe of human civilization. Most of the major powers in Eurasia and Africa are descendents of civilizations that are thousands of years old. So the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil… are all young societies. So how is this relevant to South America?
 
Notice that I’m talking about centuries here so whatever I’m going to say about the future of South America are things that I think will happen in the LONG-TERM, still pretty far in the future. Also, what I’m going to say doesn’t mean I think South America will be the dominant region or anything like that, NOT EVEN CLOSE. But I think the reputation of it being the “forgotten” and “isolated” continent won’t always be true, and that it will eventually be having a big influence on the rest of the world.

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#2
TheComrade

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Well, i've read somewhere that exactly in Latin America we will see the new socialist revolutions and rebirth of socialism as world system. This is the most likely place because of:

 

1) Advanced industrial society.

2) Sharp and obvious social inequality, similar to Europe of XIX century. Here you can see the luxurious mansions and right near them - the ugly slums and barefoot children playing in the mud.

3) Very high level of what is called "class consciousness". Unlike the rest of the modern world, most of people's movements have a purely social, rather than nationalistic or religious agenda.

 

And the last, very important item:

 

4) Region inlude relatively strong powers (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico), so they will not be immediatelly invaded to strangle the possible revolution. Maybe except Mexico who are unlucky to be the US neighbor.


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#3
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#4
Mike the average

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Well this is going to sound a shocking and controvercial revelation to many but part of the reason South America is as it is, is because of its colonisers.

Portuguese, Spanish (French, Dutch) all rubbish colonisers who only ever plundered. The British may be the lesser of evils, plundered as much but at least left legacies everywhere of well organised functioning civilisations.

People on here can come at me with this and that scenario, but these other colonisers only knew how to wipe their arses with these countries.

Anyway, S. America, like Africa has enjoyed the ride of technology. The most embarassing thing will be if South A. cant get their act together and be overtaken by Africa of all places. Nigeria is already showing signs of maturity.

But by what future standards are we going by? Its only really China followed by SE Asia that are going to power through the next 20 years. Everywhere else should just concentrate on fixing their internal social issues instead of worrying about gdp's first.
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#5
TranscendingGod

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Lets just hope that the future of South America does not reflect the current state of Venezuela. 


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#6
BarkEater93

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Lets just hope that the future of South America does not reflect the current state of Venezuela. 

 

Venezuela seems to be the Black Sheep. Venezuela's economy is heavily dependent on oil prices, like Russia.

 

Brazil and Argentina's economies have been hard-hit in the last decade, but I'm going to explain later why I think that in the LONG-TERM, they'll actually be in a better position than most of the rest of the world to grow and that whatever problems they have now they'll be able to get through. It has to do with the re-emergence of nationalism, which is here to stay, and how the Americas as a whole are in a better position to deal with it.



#7
BarkEater93

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So I need to explain some more about what I think is happening in the Americas in general, because it ties with South America (and I want to stress that even though I live in North America and that this may come across as having a Western bias, I have tried my best to see this from both sides, and even with that in mind I’m more confident than ever about my position).

 

hemispherewest%5B1%5D.gif

 
There seems to be a big geopolitical divide starting to occur between the Eastern and Western Hemispheres. Right now, most of the major regions of the Eurasian landmass have started to destabilize. I'm not going to go way off-topic and explain why I think this, I'll save that for somewhere else. All I'm going to say is that I think this destabilization will intensify and bring permanent change to many parts of Eurasia. That's not to say the whole landmass will destabilize; there will be new powers emerging from all of this. Africa was and still is plagued by conflict. Australia on the other hand is saved by its isolation, but that isolation, combined with a sparse population, means it's not going to have a significant impact.
 
This destabilization primarily has to do with the rise of nationalism. The nation-state has re-emerged as being very important. Really, this never went away, it's just that until recently it has been suppressed. And so it's here to stay. The rise of nationalism means that the risk of inter-state warfare is going to increase as the century goes on, and when or if it does come it'll be with a vengeance. It also means that enclaves of ethnicities and cultures that have been kept underground are going to re-assert themselves.
 
So even if you don't agree about Eurasia destabilizing (without explaining why I think so), I'm going to explain just two points on why I think the Americas will be better off in dealing with this change that's happening across the world:
 
1) Countries in the Americas share similar histories, and so similar cultures
 
Eurasia has many very different countries, in most cases each with a different culture, language and history. There's the English, French, German, Russian, Indian, Chinese, Japanese... among so many others. Many of these cultures have traditionally been hostile to each other. 
 
af4b0c1424c5f73d3940efac7ba0b687.png
 
In contrast, the Americas today really only have two very different cultures: The U.S. and Canada pretty much share the same culture, both shaped by British and French ancestry. Latin America very broadly has the same culture, all sharing mostly Spanish and/or Portuguese ancestry. Sure, there's differences between Mexico and Argentina, but they're not as great as say between Britain and France.
 
2) Their histories have been shaped, and continue to be, by immigration
 
Most people in the Americas are either immigrants or descendants of immigrants. Immigration continues to play a vital role in these countries. They're generally more cosmopolitan than countries in most of Eurasia. Ethnicities  in American countries also tend to blend and harmonize with each other more.
 
These two things mean that countries in the Americas are much less likely to go to war with each other over different ethnicities or cultures (I don't think that'll always be the case but I think it's safe to say they'll remain peaceful for the next long while). So any wars that American countries might find themselves in will likely be with countries from other continents. And oceans on either side of the Americas will act as an obstacle. Otherwise, any potential conflict happening on their home turf would likely instead only be civil conflicts sparking from internal unrest.
 
So for South America, it means Brazil is unlikely to go to war with Argentina. This, combined with its habit of not getting itself entangled in most global affairs, means it has favorable conditions to develop without getting into conflict with each other or being shaped too much by outside forces. It means the region can focus mainly on itself, and on improving what problems it has.
 
So is there anything big I'm missing so far?
 
Next, South America's economic development... 


#8
Guyverman1990

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Any likelyhood of borders being broken down and new countries being formed?

#9
caltrek

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Cuban and Caribbean Leaders Condemn Trump’s UN Speech

 

https://www.courthou...umps-un-speech/

 

Introduction:

 

UNITED NATIONS (CN) — Voicing outrage at the breakdown of bilateral relations Friday as the United Nations General Assembly concluded its first week of debate, America’s former Cold War enemy offered the most biting critique of President Donald Trump.

 

“We remind him that the United States, where flagrant human rights violations are committed, which raise deep concern among the international community, has no moral authority to judge my country,” Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla said Friday of Trump. “We reaffirm that Cuba will never accept any preconditions or impositions, nor will it ever renounce any of its principles.”

 

Trump’s threat to “totally destroy” North Korea sparked audible gasps across the General Assembly on Tuesday, but most world leaders mumbled mostly muted criticism after for fear of distracting from the threat posed by Kim Jong Un.

 

Cuba, on the other hand, voiced unequivocal outrage at what Parrilla called Trump’s “disrespectful, offensive and interventionist” speech.

 

“We reject the threat to ‘totally destroy’ the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the home to 25 million human beings,” Rodriguez Parrilla said. “War is not an option in the Korean peninsula; it would threaten the existence of hundreds of millions of persons in this area as well as in neighboring countries; it would lead to a nuclear war of unpredictable consequences.”

 The article goes on to also discuss storm damage to Barbuda, which is one reason why I include the article in this thread rather than one focused exclusively on Cuba.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#10
caltrek

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Technically, Guatemala is in Central America.  Rather than start a whole new thread just for Central America, I will simply post items regarding Central America in this thread.

 

Guatemala rises up against institutionalized corruption

 

https://wagingnonvio...zed-corruption/

 

Introduction:

 

On Sept. 20, hundreds of thousands of Guatemalans demonstrated across the country against President Jimmy Morales and Congress. The protesters demanded the resignation of the president and congressional members, following new accusations of corruption and the repeal of anti-corruption laws passed in 2015.

 

“We are demanding that the president and the majority of Congress resign, and that they pass laws that modify the laws that govern political parties,” said Tomás Solaj, the indigenous mayor of Sololá. “We have the advantage right now.”

 

In Guatemala City, student groups and organizations that began during the 2015 corruption crisis marched from different points of the city to the Central Plaza in protest of the president and Congress.

 

“To President Morales and his friends in Congress, we the Guatemalan people have something to tell you: We are here, we see you, and we won’t rest until our government is freed from the powerful criminal groups that have hijacked it,” wrote members of the movement Justicia Ya in a press release on the protest. “We, Guatemalans, will no longer stand in fear. We are ready to build a peaceful, prosperous and transparent Guatemala.”

 

Eighty-five miles northwest of Guatemala City, in the largely indigenous department of Sololá, the indigenous authorities of the municipalities of Sololá, San Pedro la Laguna, San Juan la Laguna, Nahualá, Santa Catarina Ixhuatan, San Lucas Tolimán, Panajachel, and Santiago Atitlán organized a department-wide protest, blocking the Panamerican highway in Los Encuentros for eight hours.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#11
BasilBerylium

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Technically, Guatemala is in Central America.  Rather than start a whole new thread just for Central America, I will simply post items regarding Central America in this thread.

"The Future of Latin America"?


TESTING
Wot dis?


#12
caltrek

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^^^ Yes, that would have been a more inclusive title for this thread.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#13
Yuli Ban

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Changed.


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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#14
caltrek

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Scientists map coastal communities most vulnerable to natural disasters

 

https://www.upi.com/.../2351509652107/

 

Extract:

 

Nov. 2 (UPI) -- Scientists have identified coastal communities where poverty, poor infrastructure and exposure to the elements combine to create a unique level of vulnerability to natural disasters.

 

These varying levels of risk are showcased on a new map of the Caribbean and South America published this week in the journal PLOS ONE.

 

"We found that more than 500,000 people in Latin America and the Caribbean are living in areas where coastal hazards and poverty converge," lead researcher Juliano Calil said in a news release. "These are communities where scarce critical resources are consistently placed in hazards-prone areas, further exacerbating the impacts of coastal hazards."

 

…To identify the most vulnerable communities, researchers at the University of California, Santa Cruz and the University of Cantabria, in Spain, analyzed a variety of factors driving risk, including the number of people, the value of assets in a community and the amount of valuable resources and infrastructure lying in harms way.

 

The most vulnerable communities are those with large populations, limited assets and a large number of exposed resources. The research showed the Sinaloa state in Mexico to be especially at risk. El Oro in Ecuador and the province of Usulutan in El Salvador are also high-risk hotspots.

Scientists-map-coastal-communities-most-

 

The new map shows coastal communities in Latin America that are especially vulnerable to coastal hazards.

Photo by UCSC


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#15
caltrek

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Opposition takes early lead in Honduras election

 

http://www.aljazeera...7091015101.html

 

Introduction:

 

(Al Jazeera) Tegucigalpa, Honduras - Hondurans remain on edge hours after polls closed in the presidential election as official results were suspended and two candidates declared themselves the next president of the Central American country.

 

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal released its first report of preliminary results nearly 10 hours after polls closed showing Opposition Alliance candidate Salvador Nasralla in the lead with 45.17 percent. He was followed by President Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party with 40.21 percent and Luis Zelaya of the Liberal Party with 13.77 percent with 57 percent of votes counted.

 

Ramiro Lobo, the magistrate of the tribunal told media on Monday morning that the trend of the results was “irreversible.”

 

Political analyst Victor Meza, director of the Honduran investigative centre known as CEDOH and former interior minister, agreed.

 

“The trend is irreversible and Mr. Nasralla won the election,” Meza said.

4162cdff89db4e7ba92811b8bd6c599f_18.jpg

 

Supporters of Salvador Nasralla, presidential candidate for the Opposition Alliance Against the Dictatorship, gather after the presidential election in Tegucigalpa, Honduras

[Jorge Cabrera/Reuters]


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#16
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#17
caltrek

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Honduran democracy is under assault

 

http://www.latimes.c...1214-story.html

 

Introduction:

 

Latin America hasn’t had the kind of “color revolutions” that swept across Eastern Europe and the Middle East in the 2000s. But Honduras’ recent descent into authoritarianism may have created the conditions for one.

 

The country’s democracy is under assault.

 

While serving as head of the Honduran Congress in 2012, Juan Orlando Hernandez orchestrated the sacking of four out of five Supreme Court justices and their replacement with partisan allies. Soon afterward, Hernandez was elected president.

 

Hernandez’s government is among the most authoritarian in the hemisphere. Its human rights record is deplorable. Dozens of journalists and human rights activists, including the indigenous rights activist Berta Caceres, have been killed — almost always with impunity.

 

President Hernandez has undermined Honduras’ already fragile democratic institutions. The Honduran Constitution strictly bans presidential reelection. But in 2015, Hernandez’s packed Supreme Court ruled, outlandishly, that the term limits enshrined in the constitution were “inapplicable” to him, thus paving the way for his illegal reelection bid last month.

 

The article goes on to discuss accusations of fraud in the election that followed.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#18
caltrek

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Peru's president survives impeachment vote on corruption charges

 

http://www.latimes.c...1221-story.html

 

Introduction:

 

(Los Angeles Times) Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski late Thursday survived an attempt by congress to remove him from office as lawmakers fell short of the two-thirds majority required. After hours of debate, the president’s opponents could summon only 78 votes to remove, instead of the 89 needed.

 

The president had gone before congress earlier in the day to refute corruption charges related to business dealings with a Brazilian construction company accused of bribing officials in several Latin American countries to secure contracts.

 

Kuczynski told Congress he was innocent of any “moral incapacity” charges, while apologizing for not being more attentive to business issues.

 

“But that doesn’t make me corrupt.… What is at play here is not the issue of removing a president, but a democracy,” Kuczynski said.

 

After the president’s comments, the legislature began debating whether the charges warrant removing Kuczynski as president. The measure finally came to a vote with 78 voting to remove, 19 against and 21 abstentions.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#19
caltrek

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Raul Castro to step down as Cuba's president in April 2018

 

http://www.worldaffa...cuba-april-2018

 

Entire Article)

 

(World Affairs Journal) Cuban President Raul Castro will step down in April 2018 straight after elections that same month to choose his successor, according to a vote Thursday in the island state's National Assembly.

 

The vote pushed back the date of the general elections, which were initially to be held at the end of February, because of disruption caused by a hurricane in September.

The elections will now take place on April 19.

 

Castro, 86, will hand over power shortly afterward to the president-elect.

raul_castro.jpg

This handout picture released by the Cuban News Agency (ACN) shows (L to R) President of the Cuban National Assembly Esteban Lazo with Cuban President Raul Castro.

© Marcelino Vazquez, ACN, AFP 


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#20
caltrek

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The Unheard Cry of Honduras

 

See also post # 15 & 17 above

 

http://www.worldaffa...nt-cry-honduras

 

Introduction:

 

(Council on Hemispheric Affairs) On Sunday, December 17th, the electoral authority of Honduras, in an act of desperation, sought to legitimize the fraud perpetrated in November’s presidential election. The OAS now calls for a repeat of the elections.

 

The crisis in Honduras is not just a matter of the serious misdeeds of the past weeks or even decade. The really dramatic problem of Honduras is the terrible communication void in which this nation has fallen for the rest of the planet. The country with the highest number of violent deaths per 100,000 in the world; a major hub of drug trafficking under the noses of one of the largest U.S. military bases in Central America; the only country in this new century that has suffered a coup in the traditional style of the 70’s; and the nation that has been hit by systematic electoral fraud in the last two elections, seems to be drowning in the indifference of the entire international community.

 

It seems that Honduras is totally set adrift, without any concrete gesture of real, constructive, institutional reform by its imposed godfather, the United States.

 

The OAS admits the existence of electoral irregularities

 

Honduras has the word “scandal” in every corner of its battered institutions. In a chain of events that would take hundreds of pages, everything begins with the recent elections on November 26th, for which organizations such as the OAS have enumerated an enormous amount of irregularities in the electoral context.

 

 

Can the sub-altern speak?

 

Yes, but are we willing to listen?


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: South America, Brazil, Argentina, Americas, Western Hemisphere, Peru, Uruguay, Chile, USAN

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