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Sino-Indian Border Crisis

China India border Asia crisis flashpoint Doklam Central Asia construction war

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#1
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Are China and India on the Brink of War?

Probably not

The Sino-Indian standoff in the Doklam (Donglang in Chinese) region of the Himalayas where the borders of China, India and Bhutan converge is now nearly two months old. The dispute arose in mid-June when China attempted to build a road in an area it believed to be under its sovereign control, provoking Indian authorities to block the construction by crossing the Sino-Indian border with troops and bulldozers.
As yet there’s little sign of an end to the standoff. On the contrary, talk of war is now heard from both sides, and Chinese voices, both official and unofficial, are particularly strident in accusing India of ‘invading’ Chinese territory.
How likely is it that the current standoff will escalate into a border war? I’ll first assess the probability from the Chinese side.


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#2
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China Says Countdown For War With India Has Begun

The relationship between India and China seemed to worsen Wednesday when the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that 53 people and an Indian bulldozer was in China's territory and advised India to pull them back. This followed a warning Tuesday when an editorial in the state-run China Daily said that the "countdown to a clash between the two forces has begun."
"India should withdraw its troops and equipment. Regardless of how many Indian troops have trespassed into and stayed in Chinese territory, they have gravely infringed on China's sovereignty," the ministry said, the Global Times reported.
The China Daily editorial said the clock was ticking and that it seemed like a clash would be “an inevitable conclusion” between the two prominent Asian countries if India did pull back its troops from the disputed Doklam region.


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#3
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This is all old news, dating back a week to even a month.
 

China says it’s ready for a long-term war with India and holds live-fire drills near disputed border

The ruling Communist Party of China has issued a stern warning to neighboring India, with which it is engaged in a bitter border dispute that has recently seen Chinese live-fire drills and media speculation of extensive Indian military casualties denied by both sides. 
 
After accusing Indian troops of crossing over the disputed Sikkim border last month, Chinese Communist Party outlet Global Times published a commentary Tuesday urging restraint by both belligerents, but warning that China was prepared to engage India in a battle for the contested land. The piece chalked up the conflict to a greater competition for economic and political dominance between the two leading Asian powers and said that Beijing would amass troops and armaments at the border in anticipation for what could turn into an all-out war.


China says India building up troops amid border stand off

China's Foreign Ministry on Thursday said India has been building up troops and repairing roads along its side of the border amid an increasingly tense stand-off in a remote frontier region beside the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan.
The stand-off on a plateau next to the mountainous Indian state of Sikkim, which borders China, has ratcheted up tension between the neighbors, who share a 3,500-km (2,175-mile) frontier, large parts of which are disputed.


Sikkim standoff: Possibility of another India-China war is dim because Beijing has bigger fish to fry

The ennui didn't last for long. After a brief stasis following Ajit Doval's visit to Beijing, screaming headlines appeared on both sides of the mighty Himalayas. The difference this time is that while China's state-controlled media kept up its incendiary rhetoric, Indian media has started discussing the possibility of a military conflict and the possible deterrents to such a scenario. (See here, here and here).
Though the possibility of war, at least a limited military conflict, had never been off the table ever since the day Indian troops moved in to physically block a PLA-backed Chinese road-opening party from constructing a motorable road on Doka La plateau near the tri-junction, it was always seen as a last resort between two very large and powerful nations.
India's official position remains polite, non-reactive yet firm and its public discourse marked by reticence, shorn of the stubborn war-mongering emanating from Beijing.


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#4
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Now, this is purely hypothetical. I'm not saying this is going to happen— I don't think all the right pieces are there, and Chinese media can be a lot like North Korean (or, more recently, American) media when they want to sound ÜBER TÜFF, but if it does come to this...

 

VI95ETD.jpg


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#5
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96urGqE.jpg

 

 

Also, chances are that India could actually win that war


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#6
Wolfbane

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Dirty bombs such as these poison not only the target but also the aggressor. The mandate to violence is based upon a pack's moral standing. Did the plague bombers of Hiroshima and Nagasaki believe they were righteous? No. They drowned in guilt.

The world however did not wait, but soon observed what followed on... a relentless arms race.

Now these two most populous nations stand on the brink of an even greater disaster. All civility is almost forgotten. How quickly Man forgets himself. These weapons were never meant to be used, they are a test of his restraint. A shadow of death hangs over these packs, it is waiting to feast...

What is it to fear? If death is an end, then so be it. For there is no pain in that, except the pain that is left to the living. And if death is not an end, then what more than a wonderful journey...


#7
Pisiu369

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Yes! This is what we need to solve overpopulation! China and India (and hopefully Pakistan) going to war and losing millions of men, it might sound gruesome, but it will greatly reduce the populations of the 2 most over-populated nations in the world.



#8
Wolfbane

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Watch your thoughts, they become words.

Watch your words, they become actions.

Watch your actions, they become rhythms.

Watch your rhythms, they become your character.

Watch your character. It becomes your destiny...

What is it to fear? If death is an end, then so be it. For there is no pain in that, except the pain that is left to the living. And if death is not an end, then what more than a wonderful journey...


#9
Pisiu369

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Watch your thoughts, they become words.

Watch your words, they become actions.

Watch your actions, they become rhythms.

Watch your rhythms, they become your character.

Watch your character. It becomes your destiny...

 

 It becomes my destiny to die? Well of course it is, it's everyone's final destiny.


#10
Wolfbane

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Death is not a problem... All who live must die. But to live in a world that has lost its heart, to live in a world that is poisoned to the root, to live in a world where the sick and the starving die upon your doorstep, that will be the destiny of you all if such rhetoric continues.

What is it to fear? If death is an end, then so be it. For there is no pain in that, except the pain that is left to the living. And if death is not an end, then what more than a wonderful journey...


#11
Guyverman1990

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I'd say this little incident just prolonged the inevitable.



#12
Pisiu369

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I'd say this little incident just prolonged the inevitable.

some of this news is months old, it doesn't matter anymore.



#13
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China and India on brink of armed conflict as hopes of resolution to border dispute fade

Chinese and Indian troops are readying themselves for a possible armed conflict in the event they fail in their efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution to their border dispute on the Doklam plateau in the Himalayas, observers said.
On Friday, India’s defence minister Arun Jaitley told parliament that the country’s armed forces are “prepared to take on any eventuality” of the stand-off, Indian Express reported the same day.

Would be a damn shame if they actually came to blows. This is more likely than a war with North Korea.


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#14
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The fulcrum cannot hold. See how easily these tenuous bonds come undone. Imagine how all the schemes and dreams of the world's alphas would ravel overnight, should these two massive packs go for one anothers' throats.

Therefore it shall not happen. Not yet.

But, the Jinping Dragga, he is not the type to forgive or forget... His pack remembers deep, deep into the past, and lo, their past humiliations now drive them on to conflict and slaughter... Taiwan, Japan, even Korea, and the American pack, and now India.

After this storm passes, we shall hear of it again.

What is it to fear? If death is an end, then so be it. For there is no pain in that, except the pain that is left to the living. And if death is not an end, then what more than a wonderful journey...


#15
BasilBerylium

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China and India on brink of armed conflict as hopes of resolution to border dispute fade

Chinese and Indian troops are readying themselves for a possible armed conflict in the event they fail in their efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution to their border dispute on the Doklam plateau in the Himalayas, observers said.
On Friday, India’s defence minister Arun Jaitley told parliament that the country’s armed forces are “prepared to take on any eventuality” of the stand-off, Indian Express reported the same day.

 

Would be a damn shame if they actually came to blows. This is more likely than a war with North Korea.

Do you think it will end in a total war? I don't.



#16
BarkEater93

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I find the dynamic between India and China quite interesting. They’re the two most populous countries, each wielding massive armies; they don’t exactly have a friendly relationship and they sit beside each other.
 
Yet despite all of this, there has yet to have been a major, total conflict between the two countries. The four-week flare up in 1962 didn’t get drawn out into a full-blown war, and any tensions they have had before or since haven’t amounted to much.
 
India and China are two huge powers separated by a huge geographic barrier: the Himalayas, the tallest mountain range on Earth. Of course, the Himalayas are not a total barrier. There are passes in the mountains where people, culture and goods flow. But the Himalayas present a huge obstacle for war. They don’t make war impossible, but they make it excruciatingly difficult to amass armed forces and as a battlefield are highly undesirable.
 
The supply lines on both sides would have to pass through very rugged and remote areas. For the Chinese it would be even more troublesome: to get to even the Doklam Region would require a supply line thousands of miles through remote and mountainous terrain through Tibet, far from the Chinese heartland near the coast. 
 
170313164506-beauty-of-bhutan-himalayas-
 
^^^ Mountains near Doklam.
 
Even the valleys in the border region lay at a high enough altitude that soldiers would need to be acclimatized. The weather can get very severe, requiring yet more energy and supplies. There’s monsoons in the summer, blizzards in the winter, and the danger of avalanches from the mountain slopes.
 
Travel through the valleys may be easier, but also makes one more vulnerable as a target from the slopes above. It would also be a nightmare for air forces; weaving among the mountaintops, without many good landing areas. 


#17
BarkEater93

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This latest standoff is more about what is going on inside these countries and less on the relationship they have with one another.
 
Right now, regionalism is growing within China. Tibet has traditionally been one of the regions that has had and sought greater autonomy from the rest of China. With the growth of regionalism elsewhere, that sentiment has grown. Tibet also has a greater pull with India.
 
China’s military presence in the Doklam Region (which is pretty limited) is less to do with a potential conflict against India or even its non-diplomatic relationship with Bhutan than with trying to secure Tibet and keep it in the Chinese fold.
 
By showing off its military in the border region, China is also trying to boost patriotism and unite its own people against a potential adversary: India.
This is a tactic that has commonly been used by China to tackle its internal divergences, such as in the South China Sea.
 
The Chinese don’t want a war with India. There are already disputes in the South China Sea and escalating tension on the nearby Korean Peninsula. China (and any country for that matter) can't afford to have so many potential frontlines right at its doorstep.
 
India also doesn’t want a war with China. India is also experiencing increasing regionalism, with its own internal divergent problems. Sikkim, an Indian State near Doklam, is culturally very different than Delhi. Really, India is like a hodgepodge of informal states, each with very different dominant languages and cultures.
 
india.jpg
 
Sikkim is also a very young state in India, having only formally joined the union in 1975. Sikkim, along with other states like Assam and Meghalaya, are only connected with the rest of India by a very narrow passage between Nepal and Bangladesh. It’s an imperative for India to keep these states secure because no matter how remote a possibility, if the Chinese military did breach the border they could reach this passage and seal it off.
 
So this latest stint reveals more about what is going on domestically in these countries. There is an iron wall in between them, and with the internal stresses building up in both, they are even less likely to afford being drawn into a conflict that would hypothetically be catastrophic for both sides. 


#18
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China and India are reportedly preparing for full-scale war over a Himalayan border dispute

Chinese and Indian troops are readying themselves for a possible armed conflict in the event they fail in their efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution to their border dispute on the Doklam plateau in the Himalayas, observers said.

On Friday, India’s defence minister Arun Jaitley told parliament that the country’s armed forces are “prepared to take on any eventuality” of the stand-off, Indian Express reported the same day.
Sources close to the Chinese military, meanwhile, said that the People’s Liberation Army is increasingly aware of the possibility of war, but will aim to limit any conflict to the level of skirmishes, such as those contested by India and Pakistan in Kashmir.


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#19
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Nobody gonna beat my drone, it's gonna shoot into the sky!

#20
Sciencerocks

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I'll believe it when it happens. Right now, I think there's a better chance of a asteroid ramming into my house then a war breaking out between these two world powers...Way too much to lose.


To follow my work on tropical cyclones






Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: China, India, border, Asia, crisis, flashpoint, Doklam, Central Asia, construction, war

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