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The Singularity - Official Thread

Singularity AI Deep Learning Technology Artificial Intelligence Future Science Culture Government Computers

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Poll: The Singularity (38 member(s) have cast votes)

How do you feel about the Singularity

  1. Voted Excited (25 votes [55.56%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 55.56%

  2. Scared (6 votes [13.33%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 13.33%

  3. Skeptical (8 votes [17.78%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 17.78%

  4. Angry (1 votes [2.22%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 2.22%

  5. Neutral (3 votes [6.67%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 6.67%

  6. What's That? (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. Other (2 votes [4.44%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 4.44%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1
rennerpetey

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Whelp, because there was no official thread about the Singularity, I thought it might be nice to have one.  This is for discussing any Singularity related news, events, discussions, or predictions.  It is also for all exponential technology and anything related to that.

 

The Singularity is the point when AI reaches the point where it can build a better version of itself, the resulting AI will subsequently build an even better version of itself, and so on and so forth.  These AI will invent new, better technology.  At that point technology will increase exponentially and we will quickly become a very different society.  Any predictions of after the singularity are highly theoretical and are discouraged.

 


  • Sciencerocks likes this

Pope Francis said that atheists are still eligible to go to heaven, to return the favor, atheists said that popes are still eligible to go into a void of nothingness.


#2
wjfox

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I haven't watched the above video yet, but I've read his book, and 2029 isn't the Singularity year. It's 2045.

 

Basically 2029 is when human-level AI is predicted by Kurzweil. He expects it to grow exponentially and the first super-AI to emerge by 2045.

 

This will trigger what he calls a "rupture" in history, as super-AI becomes dominant in world affairs, greatly surpassing natural (i.e. non-upgraded) humans.

 

Personally I find his predictions a little over-optimistic. Firstly, the timing – if the Singularity does happen, I think it will occur some decades after 2045. I also don't believe the Singularity will be a good thing, necessarily. Most people seem to think we'll all be living in some magical utopia of VR and robots. However, I think it's more likely that the evil, greedy psychopaths who run our economies and political systems will use these radical new technologies to further control and suppress us, to the point that our very survival may be in jeopardy. We need more of the "good guys" like Elon Musk, people who genuinely care about the human race and its future.


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#3
Yuli Ban

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^Actually, Will, we've proven that Kurzweil is optimistic by the order of 10 years. But he still seems to get it right.

https://www.reddit.c..._is_this_proof/

https://www.futureti...-like-our-2019/


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#4
Raklian

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^Actually, Will, we've proven that Kurzweil is optimistic by the order of 10 years. But he still seems to get it right.

https://www.reddit.c..._is_this_proof/

https://www.futureti...-like-our-2019/

 

Yeah, Kurzweil is uncanny that way. He's the reason he's the famous Kurzweil we know so well and, for some, worship.


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#5
wjfox

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I have pinned this thread, as the Singularity is such an important and central topic. Let's also use it for general discussions of exponential tech.


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#6
Infinite

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The definition is really vague. They say that technology will become so advanced that it is impossible to predict what happens afterwards, but isn't that already the case now? Someone from even 1960 would find it terribly hard to envision the fine details of today's world. My point is that instead of "The Singularity" happening in a single year, or over a few years, it will more of a gradual process happening through this century and into the next. Also, a radical shift in society requires that all areas of life change together, yet this is not the case, as we know that technological change comes much faster than political change. Also the long natural lifespan of a human will slow down the potential fastest rate of growth of technology because the change will be 'too fast' for humans alive today to feel comfortable with and will bring about bureaucracy and regulation, as we are seeing today. Technology is no good unless you use it, and how you use it is being dictated by humans who are naturally skeptical of such radical change. The coming technology is going to be especially powerful which will spark more controversy and debate than ever before. You can't just suddenly make society unrecognizable, you're trying to change millions of years of biological evolution, and tens of thousands of years of collective evolution of humans.

 

Artificial Intelligence will only develop as fast as we make it; technologically, politically and economically. We are seeing a very fast increase right now in the development of AI which will grow more over the coming decades. But there is only so much that AI can conquer in a few decades (namely for reasons already mentioned above). We need humans to trust AI before it can really change the world and that could take a while - think of the diversity of the world, not everyone lives in Silicon Valley. Even if Northern Europe and California become ultra high tech hubs, there will still be places in Africa and Southeast Asia where huge amounts of people live close to what it is like now. 

 

[rant] Also I don't know why there is all this hype about AI becoming conscious. We don't even know what consciousness is. People throw that term around but I doubt anybody actually has a fucking clue what it really is. Intelligence can achieve the same as this mystical 'consciousness', in the way society generally assumes it. There is no inherent value of consciousness (to the best of our knowledge). [/rant]

 

Ultimately you have to ask yourself, why would the singularity happen? Answering that will tell you more about how the singularity will happen and such. No action happens without an incentive in relation to other actions.

 

And all this being said, predicting such an enormous change in society is hard. The "singularity" isn't just one invention, it's a radical mutation of civilization. I'm young enough so I'll probably get to see it all happen :p


  • Jakob, Erowind, Alpha Centari and 1 other like this

Is minic an fhírinne searbh.


#7
rennerpetey

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AI would not become conscious.  Unless we want to perfectly simulate the human brain, there will be no need for consciousness.  It will just become intelligent.

 

Even a perfectly simulated human brain would still not be Conscious, but  would be empty like a newborn's mind, if even.  It would also not experience senses and all the chemical injections and feelings that make us human.


  • Nerd likes this

Pope Francis said that atheists are still eligible to go to heaven, to return the favor, atheists said that popes are still eligible to go into a void of nothingness.


#8
Mike the average

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Voted Neutral.

Some form of the singularity is an inevitable event, part of our evolution. Might not even be the first life forms in the universe to have reached this juncture, so fermi paradox solutions will start to become obvious.
'Force always attracts men of low morality' - Einstein
'Great spirits always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds' - Einstein

#9
Erowind

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[rant] Also I don't know why there is all this hype about AI becoming conscious. We don't even know what consciousness is. People throw that term around but I doubt anybody actually has a fucking clue what it really is. Intelligence can achieve the same as this mystical 'consciousness', in the way society generally assumes it. There is no inherent value of consciousness (to the best of our knowledge). [/rant]

 

 

I might actually have some insight on what consciousness might be. It's not my idea mind you, but it's a pretty good explanation that from what I understand lives out its days in the primordial muck of an anarchist archive from yesteryear. There's a group of anarcho-transhumanists that are trying to undermine mainstream academia in order to make it more scientific in response to research being ignored on racial basis, and along the way had a debate about why people have such trivial mental blocks and how to get around them. (There have been multiple cases of proven, peer reviewed research from African nations being outright ignored by European and Asian scholars.) The end result was a string a reason that I think brings us a hell of a lot closer to understanding consciousness. 

 

I plan on writing about it at some point for the forum, but just haven't gotten around to it yet.


Current status: slaving away for the math gods of Pythagoras VII.


#10
Alpha Centari

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The definition is really vague. They say that technology will become so advanced that it is impossible to predict what happens afterwards, but isn't that already the case now? Someone from even 1960 would find it terribly hard to envision the fine details of today's world. My point is that instead of "The Singularity" happening in a single year, or over a few years, it will more of a gradual process happening through this century and into the next. Also, a radical shift in society requires that all areas of life change together, yet this is not the case, as we know that technological change comes much faster than political change. Also the long natural lifespan of a human will slow down the potential fastest rate of growth of technology because the change will be 'too fast' for humans alive today to feel comfortable with and will bring about bureaucracy and regulation, as we are seeing today. Technology is no good unless you use it, and how you use it is being dictated by humans who are naturally skeptical of such radical change. The coming technology is going to be especially powerful which will spark more controversy and debate than ever before. You can't just suddenly make society unrecognizable, you're trying to change millions of years of biological evolution, and tens of thousands of years of collective evolution of humans.

Artificial Intelligence will only develop as fast as we make it; technologically, politically and economically. We are seeing a very fast increase right now in the development of AI which will grow more over the coming decades. But there is only so much that AI can conquer in a few decades (namely for reasons already mentioned above). We need humans to trust AI before it can really change the world and that could take a while - think of the diversity of the world, not everyone lives in Silicon Valley. Even if Northern Europe and California become ultra high tech hubs, there will still be places in Africa and Southeast Asia where huge amounts of people live close to what it is like now.

[rant] Also I don't know why there is all this hype about AI becoming conscious. We don't even know what consciousness is. People throw that term around but I doubt anybody actually has a fucking clue what it really is. Intelligence can achieve the same as this mystical 'consciousness', in the way society generally assumes it. There is no inherent value of consciousness (to the best of our knowledge). [/rant]

Ultimately you have to ask yourself, why would the singularity happen? Answering that will tell you more about how the singularity will happen and such. No action happens without an incentive in relation to other actions.

And all this being said, predicting such an enormous change in society is hard. The "singularity" isn't just one invention, it's a radical mutation of civilization. I'm young enough so I'll probably get to see it all happen :p

With that being said, I would to add that technology as it stands now doesn't progress/advance linearly.
In a mathematical formula, the rate of technological progress would be the dependent variable. The formula would likely be something like this:

t=rs²

With t being the technological advancement (dependent variable), r being the rate of progress of the independent variable in this case that being science (s variable) which is squared up. y'all get the gist of it. However fast Science progresses, will depend on the rate of technological progress.

#11
Sciencerocks

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I will predict that humanity has a better chance of going backwards into another dark age the next 100 years then ever seeing "this" singularity.


To follow my work on tropical cyclones


#12
Ghostreaper

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I'd like to be optimistic about the singularity but given how I have absolutely no trust in governments using LAWS to reduce human casualties (I believe casualties will only increase and allow governments to more easily pursue their 'interests'), I also have no trust that governments will recognize the difference between an AI that is a tool and an AI that is not a tool. 


“If the genius of invention were to reveal to-morrow the secret of immortality, of eternal beauty and youth, for which all humanity is aching, the same inexorable agents which prevent a mass from changing suddenly its velocity would likewise resist the force of the new knowledge until time gradually modifies human thought.” 

 

                                                                 Nikola Tesla - New York World, May 19th 1907 


#13
Alpha Centari

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I will predict that humanity has a better chance of going backwards into another dark age the next 100 years then ever seeing "this" singularity.


How so?

#14
Mike the average

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I think its more a case of the singularity ends humanity. Not so much because of a merge with AI. AI is nothing more than the most incredible version of us. Its that humanity changes altogether in a digital form.

There could be no individuality, nothing more than digital avatars. Good and bad apps. Our psychology basically gets thrown into the unknown, from things like sharing experiences to copying entire consciousness. Our existence becomes questionable. Philosophy more important than ever.

I am not saying this is good or bad, it is what it is.

If AI alone rather than our merged form supercedes us, it isnt any better off, it finds the same problem. Just as any other advanced life form out there might.
'Force always attracts men of low morality' - Einstein
'Great spirits always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds' - Einstein

#15
Raarnt

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If we reach a Singularity I think it will be because of machine learning and quantum computing mainly.

 

But I don't believe AI will turn into a messiah coming to save us. Corrupt politicians and leaders will abuse it for their own benefit, further widening the gap between rich and poor, the haves and have-nots.

 

But we'll have awesome VR goggles, there's that



#16
Yuli Ban

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Morning Agenda: Masayoshi Son Warns of the Singularity

The Singularity is coming, Masayoshi Son says.
The founder of SoftBank, the Japanese conglomerate, had the business world chattering on Monday night with his speech at the Appeal of Conscience Foundation. (DealBook is the first to report on it.)
His main thrusts:
• The Singularity, when artificial intelligence finally outstrips that of humans, will replace huge swaths of jobs.
• The number of sentient robots on Earth will rival the number of humans.
 
Why It Matters
SoftBank has made waves with its $93 billion Vision Fund technology investment vehicle. But many in the industry have been asking: What is Mr. Son trying to do?
In the speech, Mr. Son said that it all went back to artificial intelligence and robots:
“What is my belief and vision for this investment? I have only one belief — Singularity.”
The Context
• Mr. Son isn’t the only tech mogul obsessed with the Singularity, of course. Elon Musk has warned that it is the “biggest existential threat”to human survival. He also thinks it’s more ominous than North Korea.


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#17
Raklian

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^ Mr. Son is what we call a die-hard Singularitarian, a billionaire one no less.


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#18
Raklian

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I will predict that humanity has a better chance of going backwards into another dark age the next 100 years then ever seeing "this" singularity.


How so?

 

 

Well, we'll enter into the technological Singularity in which A.I. has advanced so rapidly mankind undergoes a relative "dark age" of knowledge - a situation where we try to invent everything AI already came up light years ago. Basically, AI leaves us in the dust, so to speak.

 

The Second Renaissance will occur during a period in which a few of us, like Dante Alighieri, Petrarch and Giotto di Bondone before us, will undergo the process of fusing with our machine creations in a way we become true hybrids - not cyborgs in the classic sense, thus beginning of our flowering from the dark age.


What are you without the sum of your parts?

#19
dekoomer

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Am skeptical, I do believe we have the timing about right on when it could happen. But we are still too many years away to make meaningful predictions on it's nature. However as the decades goes by 2020, 2030's we will be able to make more accurate predictions. Artificial Intelligence is a popular cause, but there will likely be more to it then just that.


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#20
Vivian

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Well, what I understand for singularity is that the tecnology is advancing so fast that it will eventually be impossible to predict what will happen in the next day, not just in the next decade or the next year.  Im excited for it.







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