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AI growth speed


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#1
Guest_Jackc_*

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what do you think is the rate Ai is growing

 

i believe a conservative estimate is ai is growing 2% a year so it doubles in ability every 35

 

i think more accurately ai is doubling every 12 years or so

 

 

what your estiments



#2
wjfox

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i believe a conservative estimate is ai is growing 2% a year so it doubles in ability every 35

 

i think more accurately ai is doubling every 12 years or so

 

 

What do you base this on? Doubling from what? This seems a rather low-effort thread.


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#3
Guest_Jackc_*

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i believe a conservative estimate is ai is growing 2% a year so it doubles in ability every 35

 

i think more accurately ai is doubling every 12 years or so

 

 

What do you base this on? Doubling from what? This seems a rather low-effort thread.

 

Its the vibe i get and it must be growing at like 2% or more cos the economy does im hearing lots of progress in the news



#4
Alislaws

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Its certainly growing rapidly, but part of the issue is that we need a pretty good understanding of current AI tech and how they work in order to really understand how impressive a lot of these announcements of achievements in AI actually are. 

 

I know an AI won at Go, I know Go is much harder than Chess for a computer to deal with. I don't know how much harder though and i have no idea if that is more or less difficult than the Dota 2 Bot which won some 1v1s vs the worlds best players. so it makes it hard to judge how fast it is progressing. 

 

A lot of people look at hardware because that can all be measured in numbers, so its easy to plot it out and see the progress.

 

The one way to track AI is to pick a specific field and measure that, so for example you take English speech recognition AIs, and look at how many mistakes each version makes and get an idea of the rate of progress being made there. Still not super useful though, because going from 99.99% accurate speech recognition to 99.999% accurate is probably much harder than getting from 80% to 85%.



#5
Guest_Jackc_*

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Its certainly growing rapidly, but part of the issue is that we need a pretty good understanding of current AI tech and how they work in order to really understand how impressive a lot of these announcements of achievements in AI actually are. 

 

I know an AI won at Go, I know Go is much harder than Chess for a computer to deal with. I don't know how much harder though and i have no idea if that is more or less difficult than the Dota 2 Bot which won some 1v1s vs the worlds best players. so it makes it hard to judge how fast it is progressing. 

 

A lot of people look at hardware because that can all be measured in numbers, so its easy to plot it out and see the progress.

 

The one way to track AI is to pick a specific field and measure that, so for example you take English speech recognition AIs, and look at how many mistakes each version makes and get an idea of the rate of progress being made there. Still not super useful though, because going from 99.99% accurate speech recognition to 99.999% accurate is probably much harder than getting from 80% to 85%.

is the fact ai and the singularity are becoming mainstream ideas evidence that it will  occur



#6
Alislaws

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I think the increase in awareness of things like super-intelligent AI and the Idea of the singularity is a sign of how fast we progressing. 20 years ago when progress in AI was very slow, the singularity was only talked about by a few people, now as things speed up it seems more likely so more people buy into it. 

 

The problem with if the singularity will happen or not is it depends on how long it takes us to create Strong General AI (explanatiom of types of AIand no one knows how hard that is, because no one has done it yet. Some people think it will be totally impossible, some people think we will be done by 2030 or even earlier.

 

For everything i know about the singularity try: this explanation with funny pictures.

 

EDIT: I say "Everything I Know about the singularity" because i learned it from that article, i didn't write that article (just to be clear,) The author also has a part 2 on AI, in depth articles on spaceX, Tesla and Elon Musk, and a really good one on the Fermi Paradox. I particularly liked his "religion for the non-religious" article as well)


Edited by Alislaws, 12 October 2017 - 12:46 PM.

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#7
Raklian

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Die Progress Unit.

 

Made me chuckle a bit.

 

It looks like the next DPU will actually bring Yuli's long-sought waifu. :D


What are you without the sum of your parts?




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