Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!

These ads will disappear if you register on the forum

Photo

When will household robots be common?

robots ai humanoid android bipedal artificial intelligence

  • Please log in to reply
8 replies to this topic

Poll: When will robots be common in households? (15 member(s) have cast votes)

When will 25% of households in highly developed countries have at least one humanoid robot that carries out household tasks?

  1. 2020 - 2025 (2 votes [13.33%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 13.33%

  2. 2025 - 2030 (4 votes [26.67%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 26.67%

  3. 2030 - 2040 (5 votes [33.33%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 33.33%

  4. 2040 - 2050 (2 votes [13.33%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 13.33%

  5. 2050 - 2075 (1 votes [6.67%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 6.67%

  6. 2075 - 2100 (1 votes [6.67%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 6.67%

  7. After 2100 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  8. Household robots wont ever become this popular (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1
Zaphod

Zaphod

    Esteemed Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 614 posts
  • LocationUK

I am interested about when people think it will be that it that it wont be strange to see robots perform household tasks. I'm talking humanoid robots or androids capable of tackling multiple tasks. I chose 25% of households as at this point it wont be uncommon to see them and it's likely only a matter of the price falling that they would be in the majority of households.

 

We have seen countless examples of people in the past grossly misjudging how long it would take for humanoid robots to be common. Often they underestimated the difficulty of creating something that can interact within a complex and stochastic environment. In addition, many home devices have sufficient automation that a humanoid robot may be redundant (coffee machines, automated mower, smart homes etc.).

 

Will there be much demand for humanoid robots within a household setting?

 

What will be their main functions? - household chores, personal trainers, sexual partners, carers, friends etc?


  • starspawn0 likes this

#2
Unity

Unity

    Information Organism

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,450 posts

I voted 2030s.  I think it will be for elderly care starting in Japan.  I see a bunch of little home robots that will basically be interfaces for home entertainment systems being commonplace in the 2020s thanks to Amazon and Alibaba



#3
starspawn0

starspawn0

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 39 posts

I'm not sure about the "humanoid" part, but I think we will see some kind of home robot that can do several tasks, in the next 10 to 15 years, in 25% of homes.  Market penetration can move very fast -- e.g. television went from 10% to 40% in 2 to 3 years:

 

https://www.technolo...-human-history/

 

Getting to that first 10% took a while, though.

 

....

 

The main missing ingredient is the AI.  If we had the AI, we could already have home robots; the whole industry would take off very rapidly. 

 

The next 10 to 15 years will see much more rapid deployment of robots than we've seen in the past.  The Machine Learning tech wasn't good enough, until now.  It's now good enough to make self-driving cars with Level 4 capability.  The object recognition is there, the grasp recognition is there, SLAM is there, planning is there, and the video understanding is coming right along:

 

http://videos.re-wor...ing-at-twentybn

 

These don't yet work robustly enough for a safe home robot; but give it 5 to 10 years of development, and it will be there.  The Deep Learning revolution only really took off about 5 years ago -- and just imagine what 5 more years will bring.  

 

Meanwhile, battery life will improve, sensors will get cheaper, computing power will continue to improve, China will continue to add to the growing community of research as it invests more in AI, we'll have a lot more data to train models, and there may be further fundamental improvements to the algorithms.

 

In addition to all that, BCIs could open up a whole new direction for advancement.  One example is here:

 

http://news.mit.edu/...led-robots-0306

 

Better BCIs, with higher bandwidth and improved signal-to-noise ratio, will push that work a lot further along.


  • Zaphod and Yuli Ban like this

#4
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Nadsat Brat

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,155 posts
  • LocationAnur Margidda

Humanoid domestic robots? I can't say when it'll become explicitly common. I'm sure plenty of people in 2004 would've bet a decent sum of money that smartphones wouldn't be common in ten years' time (I'd even wager many people wouldn't believe iPhone X-style smartphones would be common within 50 years). But like smartphones and computers before them, we'll see them enter the home slowly in discrete ways. Full-fledged smartphones have been around since ~1992, but the majority of people in the US didn't have one until about 2012 or 2013. That said, we were already used to several of the features of smartphones by then because cell phones and feature phones eased us into it. Cell phones gradually gained more features as the '90s progressed so that you could actually do more than just talk or send text messages on a cell phone by 1998. Snake, anyone? Feature phones were basically quasi- or pseudo-smartphones. They were PDAs with telephone capabilities. You had full graphic menus (even if the graphics were primitive) and could keep a calendar, set notifications, play video games, even eventually even store ringtones and mp3s. And there was some internet connectivity, but it was extremely rudimentary. On feature phones, you weren't connecting to the World Wide Web, you were connecting to a low-bandwidth imitation of it.

 

Smartphones— as in, handheld computers— were first popular in Japan, but it was still the late '90s and these early popular smartphones would be considered feature phones by today's standards. And the biggest calling card of smartphones today— the touch-screen interface— was actually considered an impractical luxury before the iPhone 2G in 2007. The smartphone as we would recognize it didn't come into existence until then; what existed before then was like the Homo erectus of smartphones.

 

A gradual evolution, featuring subtle increases in abilities over the ages. In retrospect, it seems like there are obviously three different classes— dumbphones, feature phones, and smartphones. But as it was happening, we barely recognized the changes and we made the high end out to be more than what it was at the time. What's more, it's always gonna be Japan who does these things first, but it's usually refined in America. 

 

 

So what does that have to do with domestic robots? Quite a bit if you think about it. Because here's the thing: dumbphones were ubiquitous before feature phones, and feature phones were ubiquitous before smartphones. It wasn't like we were only using Motorolas, then a couple years later, we were only using Nokias and Blackberries, and then a couple years later, the iPhone magically came into existence. Yet we seem to treat the future of home robotics like this, like there will be one major advancement in AI and artificial muscles and then all of a sudden domestic robots are everywhere— before that, however, we only have Roombas. 

That's just now how it's going to be. 

 

Right now, domestic robots are scattered and single-use only, like the aforementioned Roomba. And the only ones that are commercially available that are also humanoid are Aldebaran's machines, NAO and Pepper. I wanted a Pepper robot, but they still don't sell them Stateside and likely never will since the product is seen as being a mismanaged failure. 

 

The infiltration of humanoid robots will likely start out with something more like the kitchen robot arms from Moley:

 

Something practical that people would want, featuring means of motion that people are familiar with. It can't move away from its installed location, and it's still single-purpose, but people understand arms and hands that can help you cook and clean more than they understand a rolling patty vacuum. 

From there, people will likely want something more mobile. Keep the hands— gripping hands might be the most important factor of all for domestic robotics— and then add some means of locomotion. In the early days, people might be fine with a machine that sticks to a single area. Multi-purpose, but for a cluster of tasks. So a robot that can fetch food, cook said food, set down dishes, and then gather those dishes to wash sounds attractive— I'd pay $5,000 for that. I'd probably pay $10,000 for that. 

But sooner or later, people are going to want feet. Not wheels or tracks, but actual feet. Wheeled humanoids are good for specific situations, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that it will be useless in many homes (especially the homes of those most likely to buy a domestic humanoid).

 

wooden-stairs-oak-staircases-traditional

The nemesis of wheeled robots everywhere!

 

Because again, think about it— how many animals evolved wheels? Our world just isn't conducive for wheels unless you can transition between wheels, tracks, and feet.

 

So eventually, bipedal humanoids will arrive. They may be around sooner than we think ($500 Japan has bipedal humanoids in homes by 2025), but it'll take time before they become practical. There'll be locomotive variations— quadrupedal robots are much more stable than bipeds and there'll definitely be those who want octopedal machines— but humans will naturally come around towards those things which resemble us the most. 

 

A bipedal robot can go anywhere a human can. So let's say I have a bipedal utility droid sitting on the second floor of my future house and I hand it a garbage bag. It understands that it has to take that bag out to the can in the back yard, so it will go downstairs, then leave the house to navigate across the possibly uneven earthy ground and drop the bag into the can. A quadrupedal robot could do the same, though it would expend more energy due to having more limbs (though it'd need fewer resources dedicated towards balance), and a wheeled robot would probably crash down the stairs. Even if it stabilized going down, it couldn't get back up again without expending way too much energy. If I wanted to have a robot that consumed very little energy and helped myself stay fit, I could possibly keep the robot on the second floor permanently. If I wanted to waste money, I'd get a second wheeled droid for the first floor, but realistically I'd probably just use a Roomba and a Moley if I already had a robot on the second floor.

 

 

 

This is also similar to how smartphones developed, actually. Because what's one of the biggest issues smartphone owners deal with? Battery life. Feature phones may have fewer capabilities, but they last for a much longer time. And a dumbphone with a smartphone's battery could stay on for a week before falling to 20% battery life. Having a smartphone is still more convenient than keeping a dumbphone alongside a PDA and iPod (the latter of which technically already has PDA features at that). 

 

Likewise, even though an omnipurpose bipedal utility robot will guzzle energy and likely only last 12-24 hours, I'd still rather fork out $20,000 for one of them than even $5,000 for a less capable multi-purpose wheeled robot— if there was an option. When the BlackBerry Pearl was the best you could do in terms of mobile phones, you didn't mind. But once the iPhone was out, it would seem odd why anyone would go back to the Pearl or any previous feature/smartphone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

TL;DR the commercialization of domestic robots will likely resemble the commercialization of mobile phone; we've started off with otherwise single-use machines and have only just seen the first generation of humanoid robots. Like how you could only call or text others with early mobile phones, current domestic robots are single-purpose only; current domestic humanoid robots are used for social purposes, with virtually no utility capabilities. In the near future, we'll see multi-purpose robots that can take advantage of greater AI capabilities; soon after, we'll have the omni-purpose bipedal humanoid robots sci-fi promised us. 

But as to when we'll see them, that really depends. We arguably already have the hardware necessary— if you gave ASIMO a weak-AGI brain, it would be a classic household bot. But the AI software is just nowhere near ready yet, and even if it were, batteries still aren't energy dense enough to power them for practically-useful periods of time.


  • Zaphod and FrogCAT like this
Nobody's gonna take my drone, I'm gonna fly miles far too high!
Nobody gonna beat my drone, it's gonna shoot into the sky!

#5
BasilBerylium

BasilBerylium

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 551 posts
  • LocationArgentina

I am interested about when people think it will be that it that it wont be strange to see robots perform household tasks

2025.

I'm talking humanoid robots or androids capable of tackling multiple tasks.

That's different


  • Jakob likes this

#6
bbanks1995

bbanks1995

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 11 posts
  • LocationIllinois
Probably never. I don't see the value in having household robots. Our houses are already full of machines which make life easier, i.e dishwasher, clothes washer. What task would robots do that humans couldn't easily do themselves?

#7
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Nadsat Brat

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,155 posts
  • LocationAnur Margidda

^ You'd be surprised. If the universe and stupidity are the only infinite things, then laziness comes damn close.

 

In the early 1900s, people would've said the same things about said machines.

 

"My woman is already a good dishwasher, clotheswasher, and floorsweeper. We have bugger all reason for such electromechanical contraptions save to enable to idle!"


  • Zaphod, caltrek and rennerpetey like this
Nobody's gonna take my drone, I'm gonna fly miles far too high!
Nobody gonna beat my drone, it's gonna shoot into the sky!

#8
Alislaws

Alislaws

    Democratic Socialist Materialist

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 722 posts
  • LocationLondon

Probably never. I don't see the value in having household robots. Our houses are already full of machines which make life easier, i.e dishwasher, clothes washer. What task would robots do that humans couldn't easily do themselves?

 

This is the wrong question. the right question is:

 

 

What task would robots do that humans WOULD RATHER NOT DO?

 

For example:

 

Anything that people currently employ cleaners, chefs, groundskeepers, maintenance staff, etc to do.



#9
Yuli Ban

Yuli Ban

    Nadsat Brat

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,155 posts
  • LocationAnur Margidda

Also, it will happen in waves.  The current era of cutesy social robots can be thought of as a taste test, something to prepare us for what comes next. We overestimate the number of people who would actually go out and bring a humanoid into their home if one were available. It sounds cool in science fiction, but if, say, ASIMO were available for purchase right now for $9,999, how many people do you think would not buy it because they don't want to be spied on, or because they think it'll make them or their families too lazy, or because they're scared it'll kill them? The robots we have now will gradually ease them into accepting it. Partially because people with these robots will naturally want something better. 

When we don't have something, we overanalyze it while fantasizing about having it. But when we actually get it, we soon find its limits and then want something with expanded limits. Something better, something faster, something more dexterous. And we'll get it, slowly, incrementally.

 

See: smartphones. If you told people in 2007 that Steve Jobs' new microcomputer that was connected to the internet would record things they say, scan their faces, monitor their browsing habits to force ads into their faces, and know where they are at all times even if they turned such a feature off, they'd sooner try blowing it up than flock out to get it. But we were gradually introduced to it all over a decade and came to accept the good with the bad.

 

The first instance of anything "humanoid" invading the average American home will likely be humanoid arms and hands in the kitchen:


Nobody's gonna take my drone, I'm gonna fly miles far too high!
Nobody gonna beat my drone, it's gonna shoot into the sky!





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: robots, ai, humanoid, android, bipedal, artificial intelligence

0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users