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Wondering which 2018 predictions made on the site will come true

predictions

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#1
Maximum7

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Lets see

 

1.)A missile defence shield is deployed in Europe- 50% chance of happening

 

2.)The first private supersonic jet- 10% 

 

3.)The African Central Bank is established-50%

 

4.)The African Central Bank is established-50%

 

5.)South Korean city Pyeongchang hosts Winter Olympics- 99.99%

 

6.)Russia hosts the FIFA World Cup-99.99%

 

7.)Russia hosts the FIFA World Cup- 95%

 

8.)The James Webb Space Telescope is launched-99%

 

9.)Japan lunar rover mission-75%

 

10.)The Japanese Hayabusa-2 probe arrives at 1999 JU3-95%

 

11.)Completion of the 100,000 Genomes Project-50%

 

12.)Universal flu vaccine-10%

 

13.)Polio has been eradicated-20%

 

14.)A drug to prevent obesity-45%

 

15.)Crossrail opens in London-90%

 

16.)The Transbay Transit Center is completed in San Francisco-90%

 

17.)Many complex surgeries are performed by robots-15%

 

18.)The NHS begins high-energy proton therapy in England-60%

 

19.)Enterprise-grade SSDs reach 128TB of capacity-80%

 

20.)Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds-55%

 

21.)Portable, long-range 3D scanning-60%

 

22.)Scientists drill into Earth's mantle-45%

 

23.)The first Hyperloop track is open to the public-5%

 

 

What do you think of those odds



#2
Casey

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As far as I remember, most of these predictions have been up since I first discovered the site in 2011. It's proof of how hard it can be to predict things even seven years into the future, since many of the great advancements of 2018 aren't listened there (5G getting its beginnings during Q4 2018, release of the first Level 3 self-driving cars, reasonably priced all-in-one headsets, that VR arcade game that lets you grab and control things using your mind, some gene therapy news that I forget the details of but is supposed to bring in definitive results around February, etc).

 

I'll just comment on the few that I have any knowledge of. 

 

11. There's currently very close to 40,000 genomes sequenced. The project will need to speed up to reach its goal. Not impossible, but it's looking kind of dim. Very useful project regardless, though, whether it finishes in '18 or '19.

 

23. I think the first Hyperloop is slated for 2021.

 

Wow, that's even fewer than I expected.

 

Why do you place the obesity pill at 45 percent likelihood? That's not something I've heard any news about.


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#3
Maximum7

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This

 https://www.scienced...71113153824.htm

 

A year might give us time to switch the gene off


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#4
Jakob

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22.)Scientists drill into Earth's mantle-45%

Less than 1%, I'd say. No news about this.

 

 

23.)The first Hyperloop track is open to the public-5%

Less than 1%, not even under construction as of now. 2021 is the current date.

 

 

21.)Portable, long-range 3D scanning-60%

It already exists. Just not quite as powerful as described in the timeline (300 vs 1000 meter range).

 

 

17.)Many complex surgeries are performed by robots-15%

Seeing as a robot just got a medical license, it's definite that at least some will be. Probably 10-15 years until "many" are and even longer until most are.

 

 

18.)The NHS begins high-energy proton therapy in England-60%

 

19.)Enterprise-grade SSDs reach 128TB of capacity-80%

 

20.)Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds-55%

Your guess is as good as mine.

 

 

16.)The Transbay Transit Center is completed in San Francisco-90%

Yeah.

 

 

8.)The James Webb Space Telescope is launched-99%

Less than 1%, they pushed it to 2019.

 

 

10.)The Japanese Hayabusa-2 probe arrives at 1999 JU3-95%

Basically 100%. I mean, what's it going to do, turn around and head for Mars? It's on a ballistic trajectory towards the asteroid. Arrive and land in one piece, that's another matter.


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Click 'show' to see quotes from great luminaries.

Spoiler

#5
wjfox

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Lets see

 

 

13.)Polio has been eradicated-20%

 

More like 90%.


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#6
Ewolf20

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Possibility limiting the freedom should added unless noted otherwise.





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