22 replies to this topic

[Logically Irrational]

Does anyone think that the unification of the Korean Peninsula is in the realm of possibility this century? If so, when?

There's a new leader, so it will be interesting to see if he brings about any changes.

[KingstonDon]

The possibility of a unification seems so far off at this time but then again so was the idea of the German reunification a few years before the wall fell. In fact there were plans for a wall upgrade in the year 2000.
I wouldn't dare put a date on it as it depends on the stability of North Korea behind closed doors. I do however dare say that that day would be completely unexpected.

The aftermath of a reunion would be something to watch out for though as the social, economic and even cultural differences between the 2 Koreas will be profound. The German government pumped billions into East Germany since reunification and even now that cashflow is still not finished. Not to mention that the DDR was in a "better" position than North Korea is now I'd say.

It would be an interesting thing to behold and I would like to think that Korea would become an even more formidable economic power in East Asia after such an event.

[GNR Rvolution]

Unification this century? Absolutely. You are talking about a hell of a long time, from a geolpolitical perspective. Just look at the differences from last century, the creation of new countries, the death of others, a lot will change in the next 88 years.

The nature and fallout of that unification however, that is more difficult to predict. As Don pointed out, very few if any know what is going on inside the country, and politics is a particularly fragile thing that can break in a million different ways. From what I know of the North Korean ruling party it won't be them that open the doors to the south, but I wouldn't be surprised if the general populace finally wake up to the outside world, probably through underground access to the web, realise what they are missing, and you end up with a popular revolt. But this sort of revolution may still be some time off (20-30 years possibly).

The only other way out I can see at the present time is through conflict, North Korea push too far and the UN / US or some other collaboration push back, causing political and social collapse in the country. It's even possible that someone like China might be a major power in this event, maybe wanting to show the rest of the world that they can lead in such a major political event. But as for timeframes for this, this is possibly a closer event, sometime in the next 20 years.

Who knows though, maybe North Korea will suddenly emerge as a dominant world force later this century and we all bow down to the 'Jong Il' Dynasty...

[Guyverman1990]

I think it's likely that North Korea will face the same fate as the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union lasted 69 years in total (1922-1991) until various factors such as international pressure and its economy and government were unable to reach the needs of its people.

Next year is the 60th anniversary of the present state of the Korean peninsula, so maybe in another 10 years, The North Korean regime will simply collapse on itself like the USSR before it.

If just four different regimes were toppled in the Arab world last year, then maybe something could happen in Korea this soon. What happened makes room for such optimism

Edited by Guyverman1990, 13 April 2012 - 11:31 PM.

[stevo]

i think it is more likely that North Korea will become democratic then a complete reunification

[Guyverman1990]

i think it is more likely that North Korea will become democratic then a complete reunification

Chances are greater that the regime will collapse, then the South will absorb the North.

Edited by Guyverman1990, 22 April 2012 - 01:53 AM.

[Nick1984]

I think the North with transition to capitalism like China did, then regroup with the South once democracy has formed and the economy has caught up.

I'll go with 2050.

[Guyverman1990]

I think the North with transition to capitalism like China did, then regroup with the South once democracy has formed and the economy has caught up.

I'll go with 2050.

One factor in which the young Kim could be different from his forefathers is that his youth means that he has no memory of things like the Japanese colonial rule of Korea or the Korean War and most of the Cold War tensions. As a result, he may not be quite as hardened and from within.

[Time_Traveller]

I think the North with transition to capitalism like China did, then regroup with the South once democracy has formed and the economy has caught up.

I'll go with 2050.

One factor in which the young Kim could be different from his forefathers is that his youth means that he has no memory of things like the Japanese colonial rule of Korea or the Korean War and most of the Cold War tensions. As a result, he may not be quite as hardened and from within.

I agree and hopefully one day it'll become.a single country called Korea.

[Guyverman1990]

I think there is no way in hell that North Korea as a state could last until 2050 or longer without the peninsula being reunified, especially when the present-day conditions such as within the political, economic and social fields are like what they are now. Even if it did, poverty, disease and famine would leave approximately a few thousand people left until things get ugly.

That is, unless significant reforms are passed by the end of this decade.

Plus, just five years ago, no one but no one expected people like Gaddafi, Bin Laden and a few select others to be dealt with just last year. So maybe it could happen sooner than a lot of us are anticipating.

Edited by Guyverman1990, 03 May 2012 - 03:19 AM.

[Dead Redshirt]

But the real question is, are the people of Korea ready for it politically?

[Nick1984]

Why would the collapse of the DORK automatically result in reunification.

I can see a democratic, open and capitalist North Korea happening before reunification. The South don't want to sort the North's shit out.

[CyberMisterBeauty]

I think the North with transition to capitalism like China did, then regroup with the South once democracy has formed and the economy has caught up.

I'll go with 2050.

If in 2050 the two Koreas unificate but in the later decades they become unihabitable due to climate change,they will all fade...

[Guyverman1990]

What do you all think the presence of a unified Korea will be like in this world? I think that it could potentially be a superpower with the economy of the south hand millitary of the north combined. Several cities like Seoul and Busan will enter the same caliber as Tokyo or Hong Kong in terms of both size, population and geopolitical importance.

Korea and Japan will also completely solve their differences eventually like how France and Britain did in the mid 19th century and become loyal allies.

Korean culture will also become much less overlooked worldwide compared to how it is presently overshadowed by Chinese and Japanese history and traditional culture.

In addition, there will be tons of rejoice on both halves of the peninsula by both civilians and authority alike. However, there coould be a small group of Kim-regime sympathizers from the North who will become disgruntled, then go into hiding and start a Guerrilla rebel faction who will cause some problems for a little while until they are crushed by Unified Korean forces along with Japanese and US help.

What do you think of my theories, and how else to you predict a unified Korea to be like?

Edited by Guyverman1990, 11 May 2012 - 02:57 AM.

[GNR Rvolution]

I would say that, arguably, South Korea is already fast becoming a superpower. Certainly from a technological perspective they are a solid manufacturing base, they are the best connected to the web anywhere in the world, they have a fairly solid army, I bet they would potentially wipe the floor of most other countries in a cyber-conflict.

[Italian Ufo]

There is a motto that says: "revolution is like the wind" which means that political change can happen at any time, We have seen the North Africa Spring it happned at the click of a button when only a year before no one expected it. However in N.Korea this would be harder as they have lived for many years in a state of complete isolation. Resistence units are unlikely to be formed and I dont think that the international community will not be involved in any war or strong political pressure to unify the country. However Kim Jong UN is not authortiative like his father and maybe a replacement when he will die it is likely to happen. Therefore we may to wait its death to see a process of reuinification
The only short cut it would be the pepole to continue suffering of hunger which is already happening. If it keeps increasing than waters may get shaken from the inside a little bit.

Also I imagine that the problems with a untied Korea would also be relevant. The pepole from North would start to migrate to south and the Southern pepole would start to open enterpise in the north while keep the wages always to a minimum. This will stress the economic differences and sense of unjustice in the country. Many would feel that a united Korea is a Southern dominated Korea. Altough while internal problems develop, Korea at the same time would be one of the most productive countries in the world because. This is because they can produce products with cheep means. It will take at least 30 years after the unification before equality is re-established economically speaking.

Between 2040-2060 some process for riunification may start.

Edited by Italian Ufo, 11 May 2012 - 10:54 AM.

[Guyverman1990]

A United Korea could still have a communist party, like how post Cold-War Russia does today.

Edited by Guyverman1990, 12 May 2012 - 06:59 AM.

[Italian Ufo]

A United Korea could still have a communist party, like how post Cold-War Russia does today.

why not? Even some western countries hava a comunist party. Their political agenda is only a moderate form of comunism

[Guyverman1990]

I was in South Korea just a year ago and it was rather different compared to this :

http://www.koreabang...ewar-seoul.html

These are photos of Seoul just a year before the Korean war. It is quite third-world compared to how I saw it.

Can any of you conjure an image in your head on how it will inevitably be different from today after a re-unification? I imagine it being a cross between now and 1949, with thousands of Northern immigrants flourishing all over the streets of Seoul, begging and looking for jobs. I the North, they will build a few chain businesses like Shell gas and markets will start selling more common chain products like Coca-Cola and Kellog's cereal. There will also be railways that lead from the North to South and Vice-versa.

Edited by Guyverman1990, 24 May 2012 - 07:23 AM.

[yeveat]

As a Korean, I HIGHLY doubt that reunification would happen. Maybe back then with all those family reunion movements, people might have wanted it, nowadays most are against it. When I think about the separated Korea families, I hope for a reunification. But then I think that for a greater good, it should not happen.

If reunification occurs, there is mostly likely going to be a massive migration of North Koreans to South looking for better life. As we know, North Korean citizens are poorly fed and live in poverty. Because of these, crime rates in Korea would tremendously increase.

Yes, with more resources and land, there would be more available jobs. But would this be enough to feed both North and South Koreans?