19 replies to this topic

[wjfox]

I'm planning a major re-write of the 2050 page. Give me your predictions for 2050 and maybe I'll use some of the best ones :-)

[Time_Traveller]

I think Electromagnetic Vehicles will be for sale in 2050 and the biggest economy will be China as seen here: - http://business.blog...n-2050-will-be/.

[wjfox]

I'm actually quite skeptical that the economy can keep growing until 2050.

Everyone in the mainstream media talks about "growth" - but the more I read, the more it seems like we're heading for global economic stagnation.

There are surely limits to growth and resource consumption, and we're rapidly approaching these. I doubt our current economic system can survive in its present form.

Prove me wrong.

[eacao]

The technology for immortality will be developed and safe to use, though uneducated politicians, and more importantly, the masses who develop unfounded views will begin to seriously oppose its use in most countries (though some parts of europe might).

I think sweden will be a major economic player since it has a developed industrial base (and with robots taking over the roles of manual labour, it may even be able to outcompete Chinese and Indian industry). More importantly, it has a small population which makes it relatively quick to adapt to energy developments throughout the decades and most importantly, it is working to phase out oil in its transportation infrastructure and vehicles.

I think, despite the previous prediction of Mars being landed in the 2030s that it will be landed during the 2050s, no quotes or references to speak of though.

The militaries of most current economic powers will undergo a serious reform to become cheaper and faster-reacting militaries as is the trend with many other things. A reform of tactics and of war similar to the difference between trench warfare in the first world war to the blitzkrieg in the second with cheaper, more fuel efficient vehicles (like the Stryker) will dominate wars.

Fission will have made a come back after being slaughtered in the 2010s and too costly in the 2020s, the development of generation IV pebble bed reactors gives a cheap and plentiful source of energy for developing nations and developed nations a like in the 2050s.

Desalination will supply much of the Middle east and northern Africa with the majority of drinking water. Saudi Arabia is already supplying its population with 70% desalinated water and Israel is 75%. With ubiquitous, cheap solar, even the poorest countries which have very little natural fresh water reservoirs will be able to supply its population with a sustainable flow of desalinated sea water.

While the timeline predicts fusion to be ubiquitous in the 2070s, I believe it will happen in the late 2040s for developed nations and late 2050s for growing nations with the resources to do so (equivalent to Iran today).
While I do understand that peak oil is going to slow the development of technologies, including fusion down to a crawl, the deceleration will be counteracted by the enormous growth in information technology which will balance out the physical restraints. Modifications to designs and solutions to problems will be transmitted from India to France at the speed of thought.

Vast genome banks of well-known species and species which are critical to ecosystems. While not all species will be saved (unless there is a massive nanobot swarm which takes DNA samples from an entire rainforest) scientists will catalogue the genomes of species which keep a forest alive. Sea critters will not be so fortunate though.

BTW; it's good to hear that major revitalisations are being made the timeline. Of all people, wjfox, you should know best that stagnation is what makes something falter.

Edited by eacao, 01 April 2012 - 12:30 PM.

[CyberMisterBeauty]

I'm actually quite skeptical that the economy can keep growing until 2050.

Everyone in the mainstream media talks about "growth" - but the more I read, the more it seems like we're heading for global economic stagnation.

There are surely limits to growth and resource consumption, and we're rapidly approaching these. I doubt our current economic system can survive in its present form.

Prove me wrong.

Not talking about 2050,but I think when nanotechnology is fully developed it will revolucionate the world,and economy will soar by orders of magnitude I think...

[Immortal]

holograms might be used in japan, on time square, maybe china and other big citys.

[Logically Irrational]

Now, do you mean just the year 2050, or the entire 2050s page?

[wjfox]

Mainly just the 2050 entry, but the others on that page might change also, depending on what's in the 2050 entry.

I'm less interested in science/technology of that period, far more interested in how the social, political and economic trends will play out (bearing in mind we could face massive resource shortages and climate change).

Will there be military dictatorships, oligarchy, martial law, etc... or will a more benevolent society emerge? What about the monetary system? etc.

[CyberMisterBeauty]

Well wjfox,if the world is currently wasting our resources at exponencial rate,surely there will be wars and conflicts about water,oil,food and resources in general and adding global warming it will put the world in a even worse situation(Earth is finite,of course),with only the more advanced societies having technology to stay stable...


I think in the future money will be replaced by nanomachines or biometry,and industries will be replaced by nanofabricators/nanoswarms...

[SG-1]

Ubiquitous flexible screens, operating systems that interact with all devices - a phone than can run programs that are displayed on any desired display.

"It is calculated thaere will be 601,000 centenarians (people at least a hundred years old - born before 1950) in the USA by 2050" ^wikipedia 2050

Population of 9.1 billion from the UN predictions

Edited by SG-1, 01 April 2012 - 08:18 PM.

[Logically Irrational]

Ok, here would be my re-write of the 2050 section:

The World in 2050
The main players in the world today are the USA, China, Europe, India, Japan, Russia and Brazil (in that order [1]). China and India have such immense populations that - per capita - their incomes remain relatively low. Nevertheless, they now wield huge economic influence.

The global economy has changed significantly since the start of the century. In a sense, capitalism remains the dominant economic system, but has had to evolve drastically over the years in response to climate change, peak oil, resource depletion, and a host of other factors. The endless consumer culture seen throughout the developed world has all but collapsed, replaced by a societal need to conserve. Though there are still many extraordinarily wealthy people, money is concentrated in a shrinking upper class. Free market capitalism is now largely being viewed as a broken system. Debates are raging on what reforms can be made in order to adapt economies to this rapidly changing world. It is clear that some new paradigm will appear, but it is still unclear what it will be.

The end of industrial growth has produced a chronically sluggish economy in many places. New regulation has forced corporations to move away from the model of planned obsolescence and endless mass production to one of conservation and responsibility. Most companies no longer sell entirely new models of their products when technological advances are made. Instead, upgrades and replacement parts make up a large part of profits, with most products made with universally interchangeable parts. This trend, along with falling annual profits, has led to many companies merging to form massive transnational corporations. These are heavily regulated in order to prevent abuse to both citizens and the environment.

Social Systems are going through a period of extraordinary stress today. Climate change has forced masses of climate refugees into foreign countries, putting extra strain on their economies. Resentment towards these foreigners has produced an upsurge in nationalism in many countries, with many isolationist parties sweeping government elections. The rich and poor have continued to grow apart, now that upward social mobility has become next to impossible. Massive protests outside of corporate headquarters is a common sight on the news today. The younger generations are also becoming increasingly resentful towards the elderly, seeing them as a drain on both resources and capital because of welfare and remaining government benefits. Many new political parties have appeared, advocating the overthrow of the reigning economic system. The police in numerous countries have become vilified after a number of violent encounters with protesters. Going against the long-term trend, religion is making a comeback in some states as a response to all these stresses.

International politics has also faced change. Though the number of democratic countries has risen significantly over the years, many of these nations have turned inward, cutting off foreign relations. Revolutions, wars, and failed states have produced a strikingly different geopolitical map than seen at the beginning of the century. Though most developed nations remain open to each other, there is a widening gap between rich and poor. This is especially true around the equator. The Middle East has been altered beyond all recognition after a series of devastating conflicts. Turkish influence now dominates this area of the world. [2] Several countries have by now also obtained nuclear weapons, worsening the already fragile situation. A number of weapon tests involving nuclear bombs, space-based weaponry, and even nanobot swarms have been undertaken in displays of military might. Many of the nations most effected by climate change refuse all diplomatic relations with the first world, who they view as the cause of their misery.

Radical Islam and its resentment of the West continues to produce new Jihadists. In addition, underground groups ranging from those angry at the first world's neglect to anarcho-primitivists have sprung up. At least one terrorist nuclear attack on a major world city has been carried out by one of these groups by now. This occurs in the form of a well-planned "dirty bomb" on a financial district. Large amounts of nuclear material had been missing from Russia since the early 1990s, and some of this inevitably fell into the wrong hands. [3] Being orders of magnitude greater than 9/11, the effects of the attack leave a deep psychological scar on many people alive today, and fuel much paranoia and suspicion between nations.

Despite this tension, progress has been achieved in cooperating on certain key issues, such as the environment. Carbon emissions have fallen substantially compared with 1990 levels - thanks to advanced nanotechnology, across-the-board improvements in energy efficiency and power conservation, widespread deployment of solar, wind and wave power, as well as 4th generation nuclear power. The depletion of oil reserves has played a part too. Fusion power is also becoming available now and is being adopted by most of the leading nations. Orbital solar power is another industry seeing major growth around this time.

However, the delayed reaction of carbon emissions from previous decades is continuing to affect weather patterns and climate stability, as is the ongoing destruction of the Earth's rainforests. Sea levels have risen over half a metre by now and are beginning to affect much of the world's coastal real estate. Many countries are now turning to large-scale carbon sequestration as a way of reversing the damage done.

Government subsidies play a large role now when it comes to the deteriorating environment. Along with various forms of clean energy, a system of cap and trade on carbon emissions has become widely used. Numerous volunteer groups, non-profit organizations, and corporations are undertaking massive recycling efforts. Most new buildings being constructed are made largely from recycled material, as are most electronic devices. Some companies even employ a method whereby customers return products at the end of their life cycle to be used as material for the next generation. In some of the worst hit countries, mandatory resource dumps have been organized, in which citizens are obligated to recycle any unnecessary possessions. Naturally, such systems are extremely controversial.

In light various outside stresses, many people today are retreating to the online world as a means of escape. Vast, virtual communities have arisen, often including millions of participants. To accommodate this, many corporations have shifted to selling virtual products. This is often widely encouraged in response to the resource scarcity in the physical world. Technology has created an increasingly isolated individual. Along with robots [4], online AI has replaced various human relationships for many people. Exponential growth in computing power, maintained by society's increasing reliance on technology, has allowed citizens to completely cut themselves off from physical reality.

Technology has continued to improve, at least in the remaining wealthy nations. This is largely a result of mankind's attempt to outmaneuver climate change and ecological collapse. Another source of advancement, unfortunately, has also been the seemingly endless arms races taking place around the world. In any case, scientific collaboration and technology such as the internet has managed to maintain various connections between countries. AI, on-person nanotechnology, longevity treatments, and disease cures have made the average person more informed, healthy, and innovative. For the majority of people, still concerned with the physical world, science is something they can now take a more active role in. Though times are difficult, there may finally be a light at the end of the tunnel (at least for the first world).

Space travel has taken a big leap forward by this time, with greatly reduced launch costs allowing a much greater frequency of flights. [5] Substantially heavier payloads can also be lifted into orbit. Space tourism is becoming relatively commonplace, with even middle-income citizens enjoying orbital flights. For the super-rich, lunar orbits and even brief excursions to the Moon's surface are becoming possible. The first permanent scientific station is being planned for Mars now. Meanwhile, talks are underway to develop the first space elevator, which will be anchored in Australia. Commercial asteroid mining is being studied as a long term option by the US, China, Japan and Europe. Progress is being made with nuclear pulse propulsion - bringing the manned exploration of the outer solar system closer to reality. The largest space-based telescopes of today can directly view extrasolar planets in detail and establish facts about their geology and climate.

Various fields of science, most notably physics and biology, have made considerable advances in recent years. Humanity is achieving a much clearer understanding of the universe that they live in. The question now is if the human species can survive to explore it.


[1] From J Mancuso:
"The US will remain on top for the foreseeable future and China still has a long way to go to catch up: projection of power, the middle class, poverty, political outlook, etc. though they will surpass the US economically by then. India is decades behind China. Russia, I think has bottomed out and will rebound somewhat. Mexico definitely does not belong up there. They have natural resources and a large export economy but are still very third world."
[2] http://www.amazon.co...t/dp/038551705X
[3] http://www.guardian....rgia?CMP=twt_fd
[4] See 2049
[5] "By 2040, it's expected to cost only tens of dollars per pound to launch humans or cargo to space; today, it costs as much as $10,000 per pound."
http://www.jsc.nasa..../jsc40_pg20.htm

Edited by Logically Irrational, 02 April 2012 - 06:35 AM.

[wjfox]

^ Thanks Nick, some really excellent stuff there. I have the afternoon off work, so I'll go through all this.

[wjfox]

I guess the "look and feel" of the 2050s which I'm going for is neither utopian nor dystopian - but somewhere in between. A mix of high technology and knowledge, amid looming environmental catastrophe and social/political turmoil. There will be a transition period from the old economic system to a new one, and this will take place around the mid-21st century.

[Guyverman1990]

Carbon nanotubes will be perfected and will play a crucial role in societies that can afford them. Their usage will range from circuitry, constructing buildings and even in the medical field.

Edited by Guyverman1990, 03 April 2012 - 11:17 AM.

[CyberMisterBeauty]

Artificial Inteligence and robotics is far superior than humans,they will work and poduce with much more efficience than people,and because of that unemployed rates are beginning to soar and will worse even more with the appearing of nanofabrication...

Robots are now a common feature of homes and offices,with people having relationships with these machines...

Machines are everywhere even in the human body(nanobots).These nanomachines can perform a lot of tasks,slow down aging and some of its damage,eliminate deseases and augment intelligence,connecting our brains to AI,even immerse a person in virtual reality...

[Guyverman1990]

I said this before, but Japan said that they are looking forwards to building an orbital elevator around this year/decade, assuming they don't face any major political and financial obstacles that could delay the project for another century.

Additionally I just asked what the most likely date for a home Quantum computer will be available. Both CyberMisterBeauty and Logically Irrational stated that it might also be around this year as well.

Also, I don't think that this decade will be when Mars becomes a permanent human settlement. I think more around the 2070's.

Edited by Guyverman1990, 06 April 2012 - 12:06 PM.

[Logically Irrational]

@wjfox

I was curious, who is J Mancuso? The one you got the quote for the first reference from?

[Craven]

I said this before, but Japan said that they are looking forwards to building an orbital elevator around this year/decade,

No they didn't. Japanese company presented idea for such megastructure. No decisions, no financing, no final or nearly final designs yet. Not even close.

[wjfox]

@wjfox

I was curious, who is J Mancuso? The one you got the quote for the first reference from?

He's a futurist who I know from SkyscraperCity. Also met him in real life. He posts on here occasionally.

[Logically Irrational]

Yeah, I saw he was a member but I didn't know who he was exactly.