8 replies to this topic

[eacao]

This is what I predict
As the population of India grows further into the billion band with water shortages, limited living space and inadequate farm land as well as a menagerie of other reasons, I can see India annexing pakistan in the mid-century timeframe (2030-2070). With economic troubles and a suite of other issues, the international community (namely the US) will be totally powerless to stop it, in any case, India will need the land and resources enough to follow through. China gets nervous with the war occurring along its boarder and after a lot of heated international debate, one side or the other opens fire, not entirely intending war. The repercussions are enormous and India and China go to war. Over the next few years, international aid is given but almost all countries not in the region are trying their absolute hardest to avoid entering the war, since their economies are pretty much shot to shit. As for all neighbouring countries, it is a real mess with chemical and biological warfare rife throughout the course of the war. While no nuclear weapons are used, non-replicating pathogens are spread into villages and population centers in both nations, as are nerve-gas and other internationally illegal weapons.

Around this time, there are waves of middle eastern and northern african refugees trying to escape the worst of the warming climate by migrating north up to Europe with many millions entering into Muslim turkey before spreading out through the rest of the content, and many more heading east into Asia. China is forced to fight on two fronts, fighting vietnam and India to the South and droves of refugees to the west.

How plausible do you think this is, and what would happen next?

Edited by eacao, 16 April 2012 - 04:34 AM.

[Logically Irrational]

The main reason that this seems implausible to me, at least for the reasons that you gave, is that China doesn't really have many populations centers near the India-Pakistan border, and it's far from the Chinese political heartland. I don't really see China feling threatened enough to go to war over that. Now, shared rivers, that's a flashpoint I could see starting something.

I feel like a world war would become less likely as the climate worsens since countries won't have the resources to engage in international conflicts. Like you said, then US wouldn't have the ability to intervene, so I feel that that kind of war would be confined to Asian countries who have a physical stake in it. I imagine most nations will only go to war over the most pressing reasons. A world war is certainly possible, but it seems like it wold need a much more international flashpoint.

[Lux]

If India attacks Pakistan with the intention of annexing it, we will have a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan. None of them will win anything from it. To not speak of the insurgency in Pakistan that will follow an Indian occupation.

As for world war, the risk for it will increase. When countries have less resources, it is more likely they will try to get resources from their neighbours. But India attacking Pakistan seems unlikely. Proxy wars is the name of the game.

[GNR Rvolution]

Hmm, sounds quite similar to a scenario I posted some time ago (http://www.futuretim...__fromsearch__1 Post #10). China's response to any regional conflict will depend on it's status on the world stage, particularly if other players such as the US, EU or Russia get involved. Kashmir has long been a flashpoint between the two countries and will likely be so again at some point in the future, and as mentioned climate change is likely to have major impacts on this region, further destabilising it.

Edited by GNR Rvolution, 16 April 2012 - 11:48 AM.

[Nick1984]

As India's population continues to skyrocket I think it's inevitable that they'll eventually need lebenstraum.

The government and society don't seem to be doing anything about the problem, so this might be the only solution. Regardless we should let India and China battle it out themselves.

[Shimmy]

It's already begun
http://www.bloomberg...aid-growth.html

[Guyverman1990]

It's already begun
http://www.bloomberg...aid-growth.html

Upon reading the article, it seems for like they're discussing a financial/economic discussion with India rather than a war with Pakistan with China involved.

[Shimmy]

It's already begun
http://www.bloomberg...aid-growth.html

Upon reading the article, it seems for like they're discussing a financial/economic discussion with India rather than a war with Pakistan with China involved.

You have to read between the lines

[Guyverman1990]

It's already begun
http://www.bloomberg...aid-growth.html

Upon reading the article, it seems for like they're discussing a financial/economic discussion with India rather than a war with Pakistan with China involved.

You have to read between the lines

I did and I could not find anything about a war.