6 replies to this topic

[Guyverman1990]

Hi guys,

I'd like to know your opinions of what the future has in store for the country of Afganistan? I think its likely that the Taliban and Al Qaeda are on their last legs as a powerful force of influence with he ability to seize power within any country and will be reduced to "mere propaganda arms" within the next few years according to the US government.

What kind of government do you think will take power in Afganistan within this century? I think it's most likely they'd either have a military dictatorship, or one run by opium dealers like the drug dealers of Mexico.

Also, Within the next 40-50 years, Afganistan will be much like how Laos is in terms of development. There will be more concrete roads, computers, automobiles, television, decent hospitals, proper medicine, electricity and running water that is still very rare in the state as of now. It will take another century or more to become a fully developed nation.

[Time_Traveller]

I think it'll become like Somalia split up with no Government.

[Lux]

In the long run, Tajikistan will take the north, the south-east will be incorporated into the Pashto regions in Pakistan and the Hazeris will have one own Persian-affiliated state in the west.

Edited by Lux, 22 April 2012 - 05:07 PM.

[eacao]

If they can get US and chinese in to invest in their substantial lithium deposits WHILE the US is still a military force inside of the country, they could go the way Guyverman1990 sees, with steady development over the next century. If the US bugs out before any kind of development takes place, I see a Time_Traveler and Lux scenario. Unfortunately, I think the latter has a better chance of taking place, but who knows. Lithium isn't the only hope.

[Lux]

Even if we assume that Afghanistan can be able to stay together, lithium deposits alone are not enough to create a bright future. If we looked at natural resources alone, countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be on par with Switzerland and Japan. To some extent, natural resources can be a curse, since the other production factors of the economy tend to wither when one country gets dependent on one resource (the Dutch Disease). Also, a poor country like Afghanistan doesn't have the capital to develop its lithium deposits, making it a pawn for larger countries.

It is still theoretically possible to have a wealthy Afghanistan by the 2050s, but it is kind of unlikely. More likely, we will soon see a resurgence of the inter-tribal wars.

[Guyverman1990]

http://www.ottawacit...9267/story.html

Reading this makes me think that women in T-shirts and jeans could be present in the country 10-15 years from now.

[eacao]

http://www.ottawacit...9267/story.html

Reading this makes me think that women in T-shirts and jeans could be present in the country 10-15 years from now.

I really, really hope that you are right. That is something worth praying for, on your hands and knees and in a church.