15 replies to this topic

[CyberMisterBeauty]

Hello,It's me again!


Some months ago,in the shoutbox Wjfox suggested to move the prediction of the space elevator to an earlier date and in my first personal conversation with him he said that would move the prediction of the fully lifelike androids of the year 2150 to an earlier decade too.

I begun to realize that there are others some prediction that are somewhat(if not very)pessimistic in my opinion at least(but you can disagree with me of course eheheheh...),like for exemple:

-The prediction of the first force fields for 2110-I think that kind of technology could be feasible as early as 2070-2080;

-The opening of the moon for civilian settlement in 2130-In the timeline of the year 2070 is written"a few decades from now it will be open for civilian settlement",so begin to occupy the moon by 2130 sounds a little nonsense in my opinion-it could be moved for 2100-2110;

-The prediction of the first kilometre sized space station for 2170:Based on the construction of the new space station by 2022 and again a new one in 2032,2170 sounds very pessimistic for a first space station of 1 km...I think it could be feasible by 2110-2130;

-What about mind uploading?

[Logically Irrational]

If I'm not mistaken, the entry for 2130 just implies that major civilian settlement is underway. I imagine that it would have started on small scale a few decades earlier, but the space elevator made it cheap enough to be open to the average joe. I do agree though that both large scale lunar settlements and a space elevator would likely happen a tad earlier.

[eacao]

as for the first kilometer space station, you need to remember how primitive we are now, and the size of our constructs throughout the cosmos is limited by the amount of energy we have available to us. It is good to think exponentially and to not extrapolate linearly, which is clearly done throughout the timeline but the amount of energy we have available to us is increasing by about 3-5% per year making it a rather gradual growth. Also taking into account energy restrictions throughout the early 21st century (2000-2030) and perhaps into the mid 21st (2030-2070), a kilometer sized space station seems plausible at around the timeframe suggested (the late 22nd).

As for a space elevator, while the technology to produce nanotubes potentially infinitely long may well be available by the year 2040 (and I suspect it will be even a little sooner), the technology and energy to place a 60,000km-long, meter-wide cable into geosynchronous orbit will not be available in the same timeframe. The weight of a cable that sized, and the counterweight on the other end as well, is immense. Again, I think the timeline has the date roughly right, if not a little optimistic even.

The prediction which gets me thinking the most would have to be longevity and anti-ageing procedures. Not a lot to base this on, but I suspect true immortality will be reached technologically around 2045-2055. I don't know, and I am leaning to the conclusion that it will not be legal this century. I suspect that most, if not everyone will be banned from attaining immortality and that the technology will likely be taped up red nice n tight. The fear will be overpopulation and an older population. This is of course ridiculous for many, many reasons but I'll stay on topic. I see immortality being available in the mid 22nd century.

[SG-1]

I hope its not going to be illegal, I mean the right to live is the most basic thing for humans. Denying that is murder in my opinion. Also if they cure aging by 2055 I'll be having my 60th birthday. I can't wait for it to be legal lol.

I've never thought about the timeline being pessimistic I've always thought that some of it is optimistic, but again no one really knows for sure.

[MarcZ]

You've got to remember a lot of the predictions are based of sources, so pushing them forward without sources will be tough indeed. I could also say some of the predictions on the timeline I believe are overly optimistic too, especially some relating to cybernetics that I've seen.

[wjfox]

-The opening of the moon for civilian settlement in 2130-In the timeline of the year 2070 is written"a few decades from now it will be open for civilian settlement",so begin to occupy the moon by 2130 sounds a little nonsense in my opinion-it could be moved for 2100-2110;

If I'm not mistaken, the entry for 2130 just implies that major civilian settlement is underway. I imagine that it would have started on small scale a few decades earlier, but the space elevator made it cheap enough to be open to the average joe. I do agree though that both large scale lunar settlements and a space elevator would likely happen a tad earlier.

Actually, I found a new reference for this -

http://in.news.yahoo...%E2%80%9D-.html

So we're looking at the first civilian colonies around 2080-2085.

Would it take a further 50 years after that (2130) for larger scale settlement? Given the rapid developments in tech, perhaps it is rather pessimistic.

[CyberMisterBeauty]

Thank you,but what about mind uploading and the force fields?Will you tell me it's pessimistic too?Or won't change their predictions?

[wjfox]

I will need some additional references before I change anything.

[Logically Irrational]

I wonder if things do get moved around if the section for 2130 could get switched to civilian settlement of Mars, not the moon. What do you guys think? Is that reaching?

[Logically Irrational]

And mind uploading is a tough nut to crack if you're going by references, since the predictions vary so wildly. In the interest of high-balling it, I would say mind uploading is fine for now.

[wjfox]

Well, here's a reference that suggests 2075-2080, so I might use this:-

http://www.guardian....rver.technology

'If you draw the timelines, realistically by 2050 we would expect to be able to download your mind into a machine, so when you die it's not a major career problem,' Pearson told The Observer. 'If you're rich enough then by 2050 it's feasible. If you're poor you'll probably have to wait until 2075 or 2080 when it's routine. We are very serious about it. That's how fast this technology is moving: 45 years is a hell of a long time in IT.'

[wjfox]

I wonder if things do get moved around if the section for 2130 could get switched to civilian settlement of Mars, not the moon. What do you guys think? Is that reaching?

Maybe we should do a poll on this.

[Logically Irrational]

Sounds good, but wow, the 2100s seem to be emptying out a bit. Any new entries for the 22nd century in the pipeline?

[wjfox]

Any new entries for the 22nd century in the pipeline?

Arcologies
Eco-technic societies
Solar system colonisation

[Logically Irrational]

^^ I see. Good stuff there.

[eacao]

I think fusion energy will be ubiquitous before the 2070s. I strongly believe that DEMO will be build, probably around 2040 with delays from struggling economies and constrictions in energy, but they will also be counteracted to an extent by exponential growth in communication which will see research accelerated. If the EU is supplying fusion energy into the grid by 2040, the rest of the world will be trying for the same, within the same decade other first world nations will be establishing their own plants.
A different between the poorer nations attaining fission today and poorer nations attaining fusion in the future will be that today, wealthy nations try to withhold information concerning fission reactors. ITER, from the start has been an entirely international project and so fusion in the future will probably be available to everyone.

Another thing is that Jordan, which is by no means a rich country is trying to build nuclear power plants. You also have Russia which helps out poorer nations in immensely and the same should be true for fusion in the future. Countries like France, Russia, India, the US and Australia will likely manufacture the parts for nuclear reactors and then ship them off to overseas for sale. I think many rich nations will have fusion in the 2040s and poor nations in the 2050s.