6 replies to this topic

[Tumaini12]

The contents of the Timeline are based on one very big assumption: that despite numerous difficulties (peak oil, global warming, overpopulation etc) which are foreseen in the near future, our existing technological civilization will carry on, find ways to adapt and ultimately overcome all such hurdles. What if we do not?

Countless works of fiction, or enlightened speculation, have been written in which modern civilization (call it Western, for the sake of historical simplicity, although it now extends to all continents) falls apart and fades into the past - just as the Egyptian, Classical and Mesoamerican civilizations did.

The best book I've read on this theme is Michael John Greer's The Ecotechnic Future. Greer predicts that the end of cheap fossil fuel energy, coupled with climatic and ecological shifts resulting in huge crop failures, will force a stepwise drawdown of economic activity, population shrinkage, universal political turmoil, gradual disintegration of established nations and massive human migrations. He speculates, among other things, that the hungry population of Japan will disperse around the Pacific rim by boat; that much of the current USA will be overrun by Latin American migrants, and comparatively few of its future inhabitants will speak English; that modern skyscraper cities will become immense scrapyards, with the countless steel beams providing raw material for generations of village blacksmiths. The next millenium or 2 will be a messy transition from a declining Western civilization, through a neo-primitive "Age of Salvage," to emergent "Ecotechnic" civilizations based on renewable and sustainable energy sources; the three stages will overlap each other to a great extent, happening at different times in different lands. The future ecotechnic successor cultures will see our modern world much as we see ancient Rome or Moghul India. Much of our artistic, musical, literary and scientific legacy will inevitably be lost, despite the best efforts of dedicated cultural conservers.

I tend to agree with him, though I still think that new energy sources and industrialisation of outer space may yet save Western civilization from crumbling. Also, I'd say that at least some of us should be able to achieve an ecotechnic-type society without going through the salvage age first.

Of course, there are far more familiar fictional scenarios in which Western civilization is wiped about abruptly by global disaster - such as nuclear war, a mutant super virus pandemic, or a comet impact. As our numbers and technology continue to grow, some would say the chances that a single catastrophe could overwhelm us are diminishing. Others might say that our own dependence on technology and competition for resources are making us more vunerable.

What do the rest of you think?

Edited by Tumaini12, 16 May 2012 - 05:18 PM.

[Time_Traveller]

The contents of the Timeline are based on one very big assumption: that despite numerous difficulties (peak oil, global warming, overpopulation etc) which are foreseen in the near future, our existing technological civilization will carry on, find ways to adapt and ultimately overcome all such hurdles. What if we do not?

Countless works of fiction, or enlightened speculation, have been written in which modern civilization (call it Western, for the sake of historical simplicity, although it now extends to all continents) falls apart and fades into the past - just as the Egyptian, Classical and Mesoamerican civilizations did.

The best book I've read on this theme is Michael John Greer's The Ecotechnic Future. Greer predicts that the end of cheap fossil fuel energy, coupled with climatic and ecological shifts resulting in huge crop failures, will force a stepwise drawdown of economic activity, population shrinkage, universal political turmoil, gradual distingetration of established nations and massive human migrations. He speculates, among other things, that the hungry population of Japan will disperse around the Pacific rim by boat; that much of the current USA will be overrun by Latin American migrants, and comparatively few of its future inhabitants will speak English; that modern skyscraper cities will become immense scrapyards, with the countless steel beams providing raw material for generations of village blacksmiths. The next millenium or 2 will be a messy transition from a declining Western civilization, through a neo-primitive "Age of Salvage," to emergent "Ecotechnic" civilizations based on renewable and sustainable energy sources; the three stages will overlap each other to a great extent, happening at different times in different lands. The future ecotechnic successor cultures will see our modern world much as we see ancient Rome or Moghul India. Much of our artistic, musical, literary and scientific legacy will inevitably be lost, despite the best efforts of dedicated cultural conservers.

I tend to agree with him, though I still think that new energy sources and industrialisation of outer space may yet save Western civilization from crumbling. Also, I'd say that at least some of us should be able to achieve an ecotechnic-type society without going through the salvage age first.

Of course, there are far more familiar fictional scenarios in which Western civilization is wiped about abruptly by global disaster - such as nuclear war, a mutant super virus pandemic, or a comet impact. As our numbers and technology continue to grow, some would say the chances that a single catastrophe could overwhelm us are diminishing. Others might say that our own dependence on technology and competition for resources are making us more vunerable.

What do the rest of you think?

I agree with Turmaini, We will suffer severe ecological and financial difficulties, but struggle on and achieve long-term stability.

[SG-1]

What do you mean by Western? Free to make businesses? Trade has always been a part of human culture and every culture has used all the technology it has to its fullest capability. Africa uses as much as possible, even though its not on the same level as the rest of the world.

Ancient Rome used a lot of technology, Greece built giant buildings. Western to me just means technological. Which is what we will always be. Its what separates humans from other species- the ability to create and improve.

[Tumaini12]

By Western civilization, I mean the cultural and intellectual tradition which emerged in Europe during the Rennaissance, and has since expanded throughout the Americas and Australasia. This culture is rooted in Christianity and scientific method, uses the Roman alphabet and Arabic numerals; its main languages are English and Spanish, to a lesser extent German, French and Portugese. Western science has largely been responsible for the industrial and technological revolutions of recent centuries; Western art, music and literature have become globally dominant, although they include much inspiration from other cultures.

[Zeitgeist123]

yeah. i got quite confused as to how the poller define as western. would it be western like the cultural heritage rooting from the Roman Empire, or western meaning "modern and progressive" or technological?

Anyway, I think the western culture will still be there in the next 2 centuries as this is the birthplace of "secularism/liberalism" but there will be other non-western concept that would be added to the mix. By that time, it would be difficult to determine which is western or non-western as the merging of different cultures/concepts in every field will make way for a new, better ones.

Edited by Zeitgeist123, 17 May 2012 - 02:24 AM.

[SG-1]

English will change in 200 years. Arabic numbers are here to stay. Christianity is here to stay too, but I see religion fading into personal opinion where people keep it to themselves. Holidays like Christmas being recognized throughout the business world will eventually go too.

When people think of cities of the future, they imagine big floating buildings and flying cars. I have seen two threads on this, and the current buildings are here to stay. The shabby buildings will be demolished, but others like big skyscrapers and some old neighborhoods will still have (albeit more rare by 2200) buildings built from the 20th and 21st century.

Flying cars will not line up in little rows in the sky, except in the most densely populated cities. Flying cars will most defiantly be controlled by an AI, with manual versions only for a few feet (think ATVs and sports). ATVs are fun for the outdoors as a flying car would be, but after a certain height and in city limits they are off limits if not controlled by AI.

Language will be some version of English, all our words will still be here, but others that maybe don't have translation and are "important" from Spanish may be added along with the technical terms that will be added inevitably. This post would probably seem proper to a 23rd century person. Swear words may change too. Consumerism will change the most. Unless I am completely wrong, which has happened haha, the economy would probably be based on a universal currency. Abundance will allow us to enjoy life for free, but human spirit and selfishness will make people want to be worth more than others. Therefore, I believe money will still exist, but it would be possible to live without working and not cause problems for other people.

[eacao]

if we survive this century we will survive the next, and all others from thereon. It is the 21st century where we will either falter or flourish.