8 replies to this topic

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rdLu7wiZOE


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skFrR3g4BRQ

[wjfox]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nRf2RTqANg


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8qmaAMK4cM

[eacao]

I don't think this kind of prediction takes into account peak oil. And if the 4C scenario came to fruition, the resultant civilisation would be unable to maintain a climate-altering existence. I think we will get to 3C including positive feedback loops. Then, there will be a downward trend.
I have no evidence and nothing to base this on however so I will research the topic but, 6C seems very implausible to me sitting here now.

[wjfox]

I don't think this kind of prediction takes into account peak oil. And if the 4C scenario came to fruition, the resultant civilisation would be unable to maintain a climate-altering existence. I think we will get to 3C including positive feedback loops. Then, there will be a downward trend.
I have no evidence and nothing to base this on however so I will research the topic but, 6C seems very implausible to me sitting here now.

Even with peak oil, emissions from earlier decades will remain locked in, pushing us over the 2°C tipping point.

Methane and other amplifying feedbacks aren't even included in the latest climate models (they might be featured in the 5th assessment report).

MIT has now doubled its forecast for 2100.

http://www.reuters.c...E54I6PF20090519

[tornado64]

If we at 4C people would start with Geo-engineering. I hope we don't reach that state.

[FlameWave]

Watch the movie "Earth 2100." Perfect example of 4-6 degrees. I think we will hit 4, but we will start to radically change somewhere around 1.5 or 2 w/ major changes occurring around 3.

[eacao]

Watch the movie "Earth 2100." Perfect example of 4-6 degrees. I think we will hit 4, but we will start to radically change somewhere around 1.5 or 2 w/ major changes occurring around 3.

I have seen earth 2100, and I think it's a great video, it seems a more than a little bias to me. The idea about an infection reducing the population to 3 billion in the 2080s, killing millions/billions throughout the developed world seems quite unrealistic to me given advances in medicine. It makes a few assumptions which I don't think will come to fruition, such as pests decimating food crops in the US in the 2030s(?). Control methods are going to be very capable of mitigating locus. GM and pesticides. Although, I agree that the UN will be unable to arrange any kind of sufficient global initiative for doing something about human pollution. As we've seen, politics will have so much inertia that reality will shoot right past it.

[FlameWave]

I agree. The movie did have some faults. The ones you mentioned among them but the biggest was the future cars (the design was ugly and the connector would be via solo train, not a real train since we already have this being tested). Also I find that politics would adapt at rather break neck speeds as new technologies come about. A global congress is possible by this time (unlikly) but at least one country (one of the scandanavian probably) will get it right and lead to increase changes in the world of politics and reform. After seeing what was happening America would push for greater change at greater speeds. The idea of them not agreeing in 2015 would shock the world so much that they would force them too (or they would do so on their own) because they would know what is at stake. As for human pollution, I wouldn't be surprised if we see something of an EPA that is international come about (whether by the UN or in the form of a major corporation). I think the nut heads in Congress will finally get some sense into there heads after they realize how bad the environment is getting (the fact that many news stations have put up reports saying sea levels are rising quiet fast is a sure sign of a much more conscious America being pushed forth by the younger adults) and actually try to change stuff. Keep in mind Earth 2100 was a worse case scenario.

To the main question, what would happen if the world hit 10C change????? (since the timeline says as much, but I highly doubt that).