6 replies to this topic

[Logically Irrational]

This was once a poll on the main site page. The majority of people at that time thought that the most likely candidate would be some kind of terrorist organization or similar. A lot has happened since then so I thought it would be appropriate to ask the question once more.

Feel free to discuss and speculate on who the aggressor and victim might be. Obviously, this excludes any kind of nuclear test. I'm referring only to a nuclear weapon detonated on a city or strategic area or the like.

[Caiman]

Yes I think so, and I expect it will be by a sovereign state in the Middle East, either an exchange between Pakistan and India or via a first strike by Israel on Iran. I don't think a non-state organisation could ever truly achieve an attack with nuclear weapons. They are notoriously difficult to build and acquire, regardless of great political fiction which would have us believe some russian scientist would handover a suitcase nuke for a few thousand dollars.

[eacao]

I kind of wish that I could have voted for more than one. Nuclear nations may well use them during the mid-century timeframe. Non-state groups may also use them.
I think other dirty weapons will be used, more likely than not a biological weapon.

[Logically Irrational]

^^think "most likely" or "first" if that helps.

[eacao]

I voted on a non-state nuclear detonation, but I think a non-state biological weapon is equally dangerous. In fact, a single person with sufficient expertise in 2025 may be able to use university bio equipment to synthesise a very nasty bug..

[eacao]

Israel as the reciever of Iran (2020s/2030s). Probably don't need to elaborate.
Some south american nation the reciever of Brazil (2040s/2050s) - not very confident with that prediction.
Turkey from Iraq (biological or other dirty weapon, 2020s/2030s). Turkey building dams cuts off iraq's water supply. Iraq is in the shits and doesn't want to send in a full scale invasion. Maybe it is unwilling, unable or both. So... a cheap and effective biological weapon.

In the novel Crysis: legion, set in 2023 it briefly talks about synthesised pathogens developed from fasciitis (Flesh-eating strains) released in egypt which has had its metabolism supercharged to the point that corpses would steam from the heat generated.
Not a nice thought.

[Alric]

I don't think anyone will use nuclear weapons because the political fallout will destroy whoever used it.

If there was a nuclear weapon used, I would say the most likely candidate would be Israel. Israel has a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons and is one of the few countries in the world that has refused to sign the treaty against nuclear proliferation and they are always threatening to wiping other countries off the map. They use a lot of bullying tactics as well, so they might try to use one to get what they want, probably against Iran.

You can say what you want against Iran, but at least they signed the treaty and let people into their country to watch over them. You can say they are troublesome about it but they are at least making real efforts. Ironically we have given the three out of the four countries(we still harass North Korea) that refuse to cooperate with anyone else a free pass on stock piling as many bombs as they want.