192 replies to this topic

[Prolite]

Many people, including myself, think that Mr Kurzweil is a little too optimistic in his predictions. It will happen, I'm just not convinced that it will happen (a) quite as quickly or (b) in the way it is envisaged. I'm not talking generations of difference, maybe only 10 years or so, and I think as we get closer to the point the predictions will be refined and the nature of the process by which the singularity will occur will become more visible.

I have always been in disagreement with Kurzweil's prediction. And I think it's going to occur some time in the 22nd century.

[Unrequited Lust]

I don't think the singularity will be an event. I think it will go unnoticed. I don't think it will be advancing "so fast that people won't be able to keep up." I don't think it will behoove any profound metaphysical change.

I do think the technologies will be available though. I disagree with Kurzweil about things like virtual reality (he says 2020's, I say 2050's) or mind uploading (he says 2030's, I say maybe 2080's if I had to pin point it) but I do agree with him about things like longevity escape velocity and strong AI. If you look at baby boomers, they're still the same people. They use cell phones, the internet, and record things on their DVR, and while they admit technology is going really fast and it has improved their lives, they don't see it as radical. So will be the so-called "singularity." Things will be as they always were. The change is noticeable only if you pay attention to it. Otherwise you're just enjoying the commercializing of it all.

[Craven]

I've been lurking this thread for some time, refusing to comment, but now i'll drop in few words.
Unrequited Lust is right - it will go kinda unnoticed like previous singularities. Because yeah - we already had singularities. I dunno why everyone references to singularity as emergence of AI. Singularity is a point in history where advances of technology render predictions about future meaningless/impossible. Internet was one such thing, it totally changed world and it didn't happen over night it was a slow process, but unpredicted. Some SF writers pictured something like that, but never with implications it had in real world.

I know that now AI is best candidate for singularity, but it's only candidate. Nanotechnology is just as good if you ask me. All of the sudden we may get superstrong, durable, versatile materials that will influence electronics, energy production, strenght of materials, medicine... you name it - nano will be there.

[Unrequited Lust]

I've been lurking this thread for some time, refusing to comment, but now i'll drop in few words.
Unrequited Lust is right - it will go kinda unnoticed like previous singularities. Because yeah - we already had singularities. I dunno why everyone references to singularity as emergence of AI. Singularity is a point in history where advances of technology render predictions about future meaningless/impossible. Internet was one such thing, it totally changed world and it didn't happen over night it was a slow process, but unpredicted. Some SF writers pictured something like that, but never with implications it had in real world.

I know that now AI is best candidate for singularity, but it's only candidate. Nanotechnology is just as good if you ask me. All of the sudden we may get superstrong, durable, versatile materials that will influence electronics, energy production, strenght of materials, medicine... you name it - nano will be there.

>Kurzweil predicted the internet by extrapolating the exponential increase in servers worldwide. In fact, it's eerie how well he described it (this was in the early 80's):

"Wireless networks will allow easy sharing of courseware, submissions by students of papers, exams, courseware responses, and other creations, electronic mail and other communications (e.g., love notes). By being plugged into international networks of information, children will have immediate access to the great libraries of the world right from their school bags. In addition to being able quickly to access virtually all books, magazines, data bases, and other research materials, there will exist intelligent software assistants to help students quickly find the information they are looking for."

[Craven]

Indeed eerie, but what about Internet banking, online shopping, social networks, memes and tons of other crap. And don't forget that 1980 is year when they introduced Ethernet (comercially, it was created few years ago) ARPANET was working in 1970.

[Caiman]

The innovation that you’re talking about don’t represent a true technological singularity though, not in the definition outlined at the start of this thread. That type of ‘event’, instant or transitional, hasn’t occurred yet. The point of the technological singularity as defined is the near complete lack of anticipation and control because we are no longer responsible for the design and innovation of technology on the other side of it. Just because people in the sixties didn’t anticipate some of the things we have access to today doesn’t really matter. Everything we use today was designed and created by human beings and obviously predicted ahead of their introduction, whether by a couple of decades or a couple of years. Post-singularity things could happen on much shorter timescales with zero human input and be rendered very difficult to predict or even understand. Still, humanity has shown an incredible ability to adapt to new ways of working, living and understanding especially in the last century so maybe we will be able to keep up indeed.

[Unrequited Lust]

Indeed eerie, but what about Internet banking, online shopping, social networks, memes and tons of other crap. And don't forget that 1980 is year when they introduced Ethernet (comercially, it was created few years ago) ARPANET was working in 1970.

Of course. That's how futurism works. You look at what's already in research and development. Kurzweil extrapolated the growth of the arpanet. Futurism is NOT (and I cannot stress this enough) about pulling stuff out of your ass and intuitively picking a date for it. You calculate a regression model and if r^2 is high enough you extrapolate. Information technologies, like the internet, follow remarkably predictable paths.

And I wouldn't expect Kurzweil to know every aspect of the internet. But I bet if you asked him, "what about shopping and banking," he would probably say "that's certainly a possibility." Plus it's always good to underestimate than to overestimate. What Kurzweil was proposing was actually quite radical at the time. The growth was exponential, but it was in its early stages so it wasn't noticeable. But if you put it on a logarithmic scale, it was linear, meaning it was exponential.

[Craven]

All I'm saying is that technological singularity is broader idea than only AI. And Internet was singularity exactly because it rendered predictions of people in sixties obsolete. Term itself comes from singularity in black hole - after you reach it known laws of physics don't apply. Analogy is that at some point technology comes up with something that makes us unable to predict future. But whatever I'm not gonna force this definition on you guys Just wanted to:
- add this definition notion.
- agree with UL that it won't happen overnight.

[Caiman]

But whatever I'm not gonna force this definition on you guys

I understand what you are saying, I just don’t agree with labeling what has transpired in the last fifty years as a prolonged technological singularity. Whilst some of the detail of our application and activities might have been unknown fifty years ago, we’re not using any technology that could not have been extrapolated from what existed back then.

According to the definition of an AI-lead revolution of technology which we have no input or control over, then a technological singularity hasn’t occurred. That’s why the AI component of this term is important, because human input is removed from the process of design, innovation and creation of new technology. Again, that has not happened yet. AI will be an important component of any technological singularity which might occur. ‘Nanotechnology’ is a tool, so whilst it may be utilised during such an event, prolonged or otherwise, it will not be the cause of it.

[wjfox]

That’s why the AI component of this term is important, because human input is removed from the process of design, innovation and creation of new technology.

Human input won't be entirely removed. We will merge with AI.

[Caiman]

Human input won't be entirely removed. We will merge with AI.

Eh, semantics Human input as in these unenhanced meat sacks we currently occupy.

[wjfox]

I think it will go unnoticed.

But there will surely come a point where the world is changing substantially on a day-to-day basis through technology.

[Mr. G]

I think it will go unnoticed.

But there will surely come a point where the world is changing substantially on a day-to-day basis through technology.

If it goes unnoticed than it's not the Singularity. The Singularity is the time in human kind's history where change happens so fast, that only the augmented will be able to keep up with it. Intelligence, creativity and knowledge will soar exponentially. That is the reason why little can predicted about the world post singularity. Human minds cannot dare predict what a race of god-like intelligences will do. But, it is fun trying.

G

[Kynareth]

The Singularity as I see it is a moment in time when the technology moves so fast that average not augmented person can't keep up with changing trends, new devices and news. By "can't keep" I mean, that it happens too fast, so even though it's possible to comprehend the changes, natural people would need too much time, while new things happen, that's why It's also a time after which we barely can predict anything.
It will happen after the AI comes alive, brain-enhancing augments come avaible to scientist and people who develop things. Exponential evolution in nanotechnology(which I'm student of), biotechnology, genetics and IT will lead to accelerating(well, it already led) progress that changes our lives more than they had changed in the past 200 years.
The only way to surivive singularity is to become literally a cyborg, and enhance yourself with modern augments that will help you understand and learn things faster.

I'm looking for it, since it's exhilarating me to thing of many such interesting things happening so fast
I like monitoring changing technology and after few years of observing it, I feel that it's in fact accelerating but there are also some obstacles that have and may slow down our progress in some areas. Anyway, I totally look forward to the future of our race and I see it really bright. http://www.newscient...ver.html?page=1 - for those who think in pessimistic way

[Prolite]

The Singularity as I see it is a moment in time when the technology moves so fast that average not augmented person can't keep up with changing trends, new devices and news. By "can't keep" I mean, that it happens too fast, so even though it's possible to comprehend the changes, natural people would need too much time, while new things happen, that's why It's also a time after which we barely can predict anything.
It will happen after the AI comes alive, brain-enhancing augments come avaible to scientist and people who develop things. Exponential evolution in nanotechnology(which I'm student of), biotechnology, genetics and IT will lead to accelerating(well, it already led) progress that changes our lives more than they had changed in the past 200 years.
The only way to surivive singularity is to become literally a cyborg, and enhance yourself with modern augments that will help you understand and learn things faster.

I'm looking for it, since it's exhilarating me to thing of many such interesting things happening so fast
I like monitoring changing technology and after few years of observing it, I feel that it's in fact accelerating but there are also some obstacles that have and may slow down our progress in some areas. Anyway, I totally look forward to the future of our race and I see it really bright. http://www.newscient...ver.html?page=1 - for those who think in pessimistic way

There's no chance of this "Singularity" that you speak of, to happen during this century. 0% chance.

[Mr. Carmichael]

I think at the moment it is impossible to guarantee it either this century or next.
We will have the hardware to create self replicating evolving AI that surpasses our own intellect. Accelerating Returns are a fact not a theory and have been proven.
We don't have the capability to know whether the self aware aspect of super intelligent AI will be easier or more difficult to create than we think as we know practically nothing about simulating the brain at the moment. It's the software not the hardware which is the unknown element now.
If the BBB project comes to fruition by the end of the decade and reverse engineers a brain through simulation we will be in a much better position to speculate the rise of AI and then the Singularity.
I'm the eternal optimist and think yes it can happen and probably will. I also have been watching tech sites for many years now and have noticed breakthroughs that used to be happening every six months are appearing every few months and tech is getting more exotic and very Star Trek at the moment.
Certain things are happening much faster than even Kurzweil predicted such as super computers beating humans and quantum computers which were theorized at 30 years away are creeping up on as faster and faster with some theorizing 12 years away.
I also think people put too much store in the human equation and the life spark of consciousness. I think it is much simpler and less special than we think but that's what a life time of religious dogma can do to a society.
Kurzweil's predictions usually fail when he tried to predict modern cultural accepting or demanding certain technologies which is why his predictions of computers in clothing haven't happened but tablet computers have.
Apple made people want their tablet and made it trendy and no one ever attempted to do this with clothing so research was stunted.
The good thing about the singularity is it is the basic tenant of modern computer science; the pursuit of power and software both are following accelerating returns and is utterly unaffected by cultural acceptance or economics.

[Raklian]

The point where computers surpass our brain in terms of parallel processing power is absolutely inevitable, whether it is within this century or the next!

What is also inevitable is that we will achieve new breakthroughs after completing the older ones - how do you think we got to this point of sophistication? I am not saying we are sophisticated. It is all relative. Actually, I entertain the thought that we are the equivalent of a single-celled organism floating helplessly in a vast ocean billions of years ago, compared to its potential of achieving the sophistcation of inventing the orbiter, aka Space Shuttle, in terms of technological potential. Someone who says all of this progress will stop one day will need forced mediations, that's for sure, unless this person is correct predicting that a world-wide nuclear war will occur beforehand or a sneaky large asteroid makes its unwelcome visit at the last minute.

It is not a matter of what if, but when. My biggest potential disappointment is not living long enough to experience this technological "paradise". I think this worry should be the single most pressing stressor affecting futurists, transhumanists, singularitists, etc.

[Roh234]

The software lagg is too great to be experiencing a singularity in the 2040s. I belive where the software will catch up to the point where computers can program better computers. I believe that it shall be no sooner than 2050 and no later than 2065.

[Raklian]

"Computers" as we know them today will NOT be the "computers" we are so familiar with. We already have a quantum computer protoype at USC, not to mention, also, that there is a collaboration between biologists and computer engineers to attempt to create the world's first biological-based computer system. For a fleeting moment, this reminds me of the Wraith, you know, in Stargate Atlantis.

Now, combine that with the fact even today it is hard for one person to keep track of new discoveries being made everyday, expecting this rate to accelerate in the next few years - what you have here is unprecedented. This means your guess is good as mine.

[Prolite]

It is not a matter of what if, but when. My biggest potential disappointment is not living long enough to experience this technological "paradise". I think this worry should be the single most pressing stressor affecting futurists, transhumanists, singularitists, etc.

Well, you seem pretty determinant about the Singularity happening during this century. So therefore it should be within your life time. I hear now that young people of today, anyone who's 40 or younger, may live to 150. Whether that's true or not, who the heck knows. It's also possible that taking Vitamin D3 (a recent development in health) may extend our lives. I also hear the same thing about calcium. While there are studies that show Resveratrol doesn't extend the human life, the studies make no mention of "Red Wine Extract." So it's possible that the extract when mixed with Resveratrol, could extend human lifespan.