192 replies to this topic

[Unrequited Lust]

I think it will go unnoticed.

But there will surely come a point where the world is changing substantially on a day-to-day basis through technology.

If it goes unnoticed than it's not the Singularity. The Singularity is the time in human kind's history where change happens so fast, that only the augmented will be able to keep up with it. Intelligence, creativity and knowledge will soar exponentially. That is the reason why little can predicted about the world post singularity. Human minds cannot dare predict what a race of god-like intelligences will do. But, it is fun trying.

G

Then I reject that definition. I don't see how it is even remotely possible that technology can improve so fast that people have to augment themselves to keep up with it. It is not economically possible. The Law of Accelerating Returns is primarily an economic theory.

The Singularity as I see it is a moment in time when the technology moves so fast that average not augmented person can't keep up with changing trends, new devices and news. By "can't keep" I mean, that it happens too fast, so even though it's possible to comprehend the changes, natural people would need too much time, while new things happen, that's why It's also a time after which we barely can predict anything.
It will happen after the AI comes alive, brain-enhancing augments come avaible to scientist and people who develop things. Exponential evolution in nanotechnology(which I'm student of), biotechnology, genetics and IT will lead to accelerating(well, it already led) progress that changes our lives more than they had changed in the past 200 years.
The only way to surivive singularity is to become literally a cyborg, and enhance yourself with modern augments that will help you understand and learn things faster.

I'm looking for it, since it's exhilarating me to thing of many such interesting things happening so fast
I like monitoring changing technology and after few years of observing it, I feel that it's in fact accelerating but there are also some obstacles that have and may slow down our progress in some areas. Anyway, I totally look forward to the future of our race and I see it really bright. http://www.newscient...ver.html?page=1 - for those who think in pessimistic way

There's no chance of this "Singularity" that you speak of, to happen during this century. 0% chance.

I definitely like the second two paragraphs. Human level AI and nanomachines are inevitable in the next 50 years.

[wjfox]

Kurzweil's predictions usually fail when he tried to predict modern cultural accepting or demanding certain technologies which is why his predictions of computers in clothing haven't happened

Actually, that's happening too -

http://www.nytimes.c...&ref=technology

[Mr. G]

"Then I reject that definition. I don't see how it is even remotely possible that technology can improve so fast that people have to augment themselves to keep up with it. It is not economically possible. The Law of Accelerating Returns is primarily an economic theory."

From Wiki http://en.wikipedia....cal_singularity

Technological singularity refers to the hypothetical future emergence of greater-than-human intelligence through technological means. Since the capabilities of such an intelligence would be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the occurrence of a technological singularity is seen as an intellectual event horizon, beyond which the future becomes difficult to understand or predict.

You can reject the singularity. But, I don't see how you can reject the definition. You clearly need to do a bit of reading.

Surely you know what a singularity means in physics? This is where the term "technological singularity" is drawn from. A singularity is a point in space where all the laws of physics break down. A technological singularity in a civilization is the point where change happens so fast that the normal rules of society no longer apply. That means it is impossible for us to predict what will happen post singularity.

Now, is the LOR (law of accelerating returns) only an economic theory? I'm not sure what you mean here. The LOR means that progress in information technology is increasing exponentially. We are not talking about bacteria multiplying exponentially until they don't. The key words are "information technology" as in processing speed, memory, information transfer, gene sequencing etc. Kurzweil has made his point that eventually almost everything will eventually become a form of information technology. He sites 3-D printing as a primary example. In a post scarcity future where robots or nanobots are making and doing everything for us, normal economic rules don't apply.

Finally, could the singularity happen by 2045 as Kurzweil believes? In addition, how could it happen?


Scenario 1: We create strong AI. Strong AI creates Stronger AI. Recursion....... Resulting in a God like artificial intelligence. This intelligence will help the human race to upgrade its capabilities and we will also become godlike.

Scenario 2: BCI (Brain computer interface). With improvements in GPS (already here) and 3D glasses (coming soon) and AR/VR (augmented reality/virtual reality) the world could change very fast. Overlaying the real world will be a virtual one that we can interact with. We may choose to even implant chips into our bodies to augment our experience. If your not plugged in; you will not be able to keep up with the pace of accelerating change.


Are these scenarios plausible? This is certainly up for debate. However, calling extreme progress in technology, (as some people here have) a "singularity" doesn't make a lick of sense.


G

[Craven]

It think ppl in this topic wil find this interesting:

www.ted.com/talks/daniel_wolpert_the_real_reason_for_brains.html

One more argument for my conviction that Ai will emerge from Boston Dynamics rather than from Deep Blue's workshop.

[Unrequited Lust]

You clearly need to do a bit of reading.

lol watch that arrogance.

I've read The Singularity is Near. I've seen Transcendent Man. I've watched every lecture by Ray Kurzweil and Aubrey de Grey. I've been studying this assiduously for the past two years. I can show you the actual mathematical proof for the Law of Accelerating Returns (in fact I do it earlier in this thread) and its theoretical implications. I know a lot more about this than you do.

The Law of Accelerating Returns is an economic theory by Kurzweil's own admission. "The law of accelerating returns is fundamentally an economic theory... It's the economic imperative of a competitive marketplace that is the primary force driving technology forward and fueling the law of accelerating returns." http://books.google....heory."&f=false

And there are actually three schools of "singularity theory" outlined here by Eliezer Yudkowsky: http://yudkowsky.net...ularity/schools

So yeah, I reject the definition of it "being so fast that regular people can't keep up." It doesn't make economic sense. If you're releasing a new iPhone every day, your company is going on. The pace of technology is only so fast as people are willing to keep up with it. Really, what does "not being able to keep up with it mean"? Will everyone else think faster and move faster? How does time suddenly speed up?

I agree with most the technologies of the singularity - GNR technologies - but I don't believe it will bring about any sweeping metaphysical change. I say "unnoticed" because 8000 years ago people didn't go "holy shit, this is the agricultural revolution, what a singularity." 150 years ago people didn't go, "holy shit, this is the industrial revolution, things are changing so fast." People went on with their lives as they always did and accommodated their lifestyles accordingly. 2045 will be no different.

[Roh234]

^I don't know. If AI with though power of billions of human brains are leading the change, it may or may not be economical especially if they are programmed to better humanity.

[Mr. G]

Sorry about the rude remark. It was born out of frustration with others and was uncalled for directed towards you.


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"Really, what does "not being able to keep up with it mean"? Will everyone else think faster and move faster?"

Yes. If you accept that we will put nanobots or other kinds of hardware in our bodies. Classes will be formed when certain segments of society choose to accept varying levels of augmentation. The most augumented will be far more intelligent and powerful than the rest. Society will fracture and will be unrecognizable compared to today.

As you pointed out, and subsequently rejected, everything depends on to the Law of Accelerating Returns. If exponential technological growth continues for long enough, and this growth leads to exponential growth in human intelligence, those that choose not to augment themselves will see society pass by them in a blur.

Think about a world with God-like AI. A world where people have superhuman abilities. This is what the singularity leads to. Kurzweil even believes that we will leave our bodies through mind uploading.

Sorry, standard economic theories don't apply. This is what the Singularity (big "S") means according to Vinge and Kurzweil. Of course, other "experts" will make up their own definitions. In my opinion they are only describing a paradigm shift like the Industrial Revolution, and not the Singularity- a much more significant event. These experts are thinking too small.

When superhuman intelligence and abilities arrive, the human race will be transformed. The form of what is human will change.
This is the key to the Singularity. No superintelligence = no Singularity.


We will notice the difference. How could we not?



G

[GNR Rvolution]

Sorry about the rude remark. It was born out of frustration with others and was uncalled for directed towards you.


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"Really, what does "not being able to keep up with it mean"? Will everyone else think faster and move faster?"

Yes. If you accept that we will put nanobots or other kinds of hardware in our bodies. Classes will be formed when certain segments of society choose to accept varying levels of augmentation. The most augumented will be far more intelligent and powerful than the rest. Society will fracture and will be unrecognizable compared to today.

As you pointed out, and subsequently rejected, everything depends on to the Law of Accelerating Returns. If exponential technological growth continues for long enough, and this growth leads to exponential growth in human intelligence, those that choose not to augment themselves will see society pass by them in a blur.

Think about a world with God-like AI. A world where people have superhuman abilities. This is what the singularity leads to. Kurzweil even believes that we will leave our bodies through mind uploading.

Sorry, standard economic theories don't apply. This is what the Singularity (big "S") means according to Vinge and Kurzweil. Of course, other "experts" will make up their own definitions. In my opinion they are only describing a paradigm shift like the Industrial Revolution, and not the Singularity- a much more significant event. These experts are thinking too small.

When superhuman intelligence and abilities arrive, the human race will be transformed. The form of what is human will change.
This is the key to the Singularity. No superintelligence = no Singularity.


We will notice the difference. How could we not?



G

Just to pick up on a couple of points:

Firstly the concept of putting nanobots / hardware in our body is still not a given (I appreciate you used an if), despite the LOR this is still a matter that is nothing to do with technological advances, it boils down to personal acceptance and people may be scared / upset / indoctrinated by religion to reject this idea. They probably won't, but it might only take a few 'bad' media reports to turn people against the idea. Look at the furore around GM crops, the media have a way of influencing public opinion like never before.

Secondly, the idea of a god-like AI could be misconstrued. God like implies omnipotence, and I don't think any AI would have that (certainly not this century). Yes, they will likely have the ability to outthink, outdevelop and outstrip us in terms of advances, but they will still have limitations.

Personally I believe that there will be two singularities, one that is a big media event at a specific point in time, but this will be a false singularity according to the definition. The actual singularity will occur behind the scenes, under the covers, etc. and will go unnoticed. But that's where the big changes will happen, more slowly, over time, but in a way that humans can accept and come to terms with the changes.

[wjfox]

Sorry, standard economic theories don't apply.

We should also bear in mind that many goods/services are likely to become free, or nearly free, due to exponential improvements in technology and price-performance. That said, I think 2045 is probably a bit too optimistic. Climate-related disasters may also delay the Singularity. Not to mention the potential impacts of peak oil, bio-terrorism, etc.

[Prolite]

Which is harder?: Human-level A.I., or devices directly connected to our brains to amplify our intelligence?

[Craven]

First one is harder but will come to be faster because we're working only on that.

My problem with modern medicine is that we're only improving sick people, saving endangered lifes, prolonging old lifes. Noone works on therapy that would improve your cooperation skills, enchance your empathy and morality, or remove inclinations to make up your own facts or seeking conspiracy theories anywhere.

If anyone tried to start study to amplify human intelligence, there would be moder witch hunt for him. He'de be deemed as immoral monster that wants to play god, and of course in USA he'd be called intollerant racist, because intelligent people are no better than stupid fucking idiots!

[Deadbolt]

The base assumption behind the Singularity is that once a human level AI is constructed, we can quickly create an even faster version, which can solve problems even faster, and allow us to solve the problem of making it even faster, and then we use that AI to solve the problem of making an even faster AI than that, and then...

The thing is: why do we assume that these processes will be speedy. It's taking us a very long time right now to make a human level AI, so why would it be so easy to just a make a faster version once we've understood that one, and why, if we do, will this AI be able to accelerate things so much that we can't keep up anymore?

Having human level AI would certainly be a step up from humans, since the AI only needs juice, and employing the same effective task solving algorithms of the human brain, it can perform operations endlessly without getting distracted, bored, or tired, like we do. In addition, we can make many more human level AI computers with pre-existing scientific knowledge within them, than we can teach humans to become scientists. These factors certainly mean an increase in the speed at which we get things done and discover new things, but why do they lead to a Singularity in short order?

The Singularity is explicitly a point at which we can no longer predict the level of growth because it is out of our capability, but the emergence of a human level AI and then the Singularity shortly afterwards is optimistic. Aren't we and the human level AI going to be spending quite a long time working out how to make our selves faster, even once we've understood how we're made at all? The timeline for the Singularity may be a lot lot longer than we think.

[GNR Rvolution]

First one is harder but will come to be faster because we're working only on that.

My problem with modern medicine is that we're only improving sick people, saving endangered lifes, prolonging old lifes. Noone works on therapy that would improve your cooperation skills, enchance your empathy and morality, or remove inclinations to make up your own facts or seeking conspiracy theories anywhere.

If anyone tried to start study to amplify human intelligence, there would be moder witch hunt for him. He'de be deemed as immoral monster that wants to play god, and of course in USA he'd be called intollerant racist, because intelligent people are no better than stupid fucking idiots!

Maybe a little OTT but I know what you mean. I think attempts to improve the human body will have to overcome some serious opposition from those who think that it is the beginning of some deliberate Eugenics / Transhumanism program, I mean why should we improve ourselves when there is no need? Not saying they are right, but that's what I think a lot of people are going to say. Of course it will happen eventually though, it will only take a few to encourage the masses, look at plastic surgery, that was long seen as a taboo thing to do but now it's quite common amongst many people.

[GNR Rvolution]

The base assumption behind the Singularity is that once a human level AI is constructed, we can quickly create an even faster version, which can solve problems even faster, and allow us to solve the problem of making it even faster, and then we use that AI to solve the problem of making an even faster AI than that, and then...

The thing is: why do we assume that these processes will be speedy. It's taking us a very long time right now to make a human level AI, so why would it be so easy to just a make a faster version once we've understood that one, and why, if we do, will this AI be able to accelerate things so much that we can't keep up anymore?

Having human level AI would certainly be a step up from humans, since the AI only needs juice, and employing the same effective task solving algorithms of the human brain, it can perform operations endlessly without getting distracted, bored, or tired, like we do. In addition, we can make many more human level AI computers with pre-existing scientific knowledge within them, than we can teach humans to become scientists. These factors certainly mean an increase in the speed at which we get things done and discover new things, but why do they lead to a Singularity in short order?

The Singularity is explicitly a point at which we can no longer predict the level of growth because it is out of our capability, but the emergence of a human level AI and then the Singularity shortly afterwards is optimistic. Aren't we and the human level AI going to be spending quite a long time working out how to make our selves faster, even once we've understood how we're made at all? The timeline for the Singularity may be a lot lot longer than we think.

I guess the point is that once human-level AI is achieved, the accelerating return on this, being exponential and all, means that very quicly it it something far more than human, in terms of processing power, memory etc. But to be honest human-level AI has always been a bit of a misnomer to me. It doesn't mean that they will actually be human, there are always some things that digital entities will always excel at over human counter parts, and other areas where they will not, possibly not ever come close to humans.

[Craven]

Maybe a little OTT but I know what you mean. I think attempts to improve the human body will have to overcome some serious opposition from those who think that it is the beginning of some deliberate Eugenics / Transhumanism program, I mean why should we improve ourselves when there is no need? Not saying they are right, but that's what I think a lot of people are going to say. Of course it will happen eventually though, it will only take a few to encourage the masses, look at plastic surgery, that was long seen as a taboo thing to do but now it's quite common amongst many people.

And I hope same transition will come in area of transhumanism
And by the way I think this thread needs little OT, it's too focused on "when", instead of "how". I kinda hoped to push it in this direction with that TED talk

[Prolite]

Artificial intelligence will expand rapidly with the onset of quantum computing. Quantum computing is the holy grail of machine learning.

[GNR Rvolution]

Maybe a little OTT but I know what you mean. I think attempts to improve the human body will have to overcome some serious opposition from those who think that it is the beginning of some deliberate Eugenics / Transhumanism program, I mean why should we improve ourselves when there is no need? Not saying they are right, but that's what I think a lot of people are going to say. Of course it will happen eventually though, it will only take a few to encourage the masses, look at plastic surgery, that was long seen as a taboo thing to do but now it's quite common amongst many people.

And I hope same transition will come in area of transhumanism
And by the way I think this thread needs little OT, it's too focused on "when", instead of "how". I kinda hoped to push it in this direction with that TED talk

Hope you realise I meant Over the Top not Off-topic?

Anyway the problem with the how is that there are so many variables to account for in determining the how (or if), some of which are quite clearly defined (such as the Law of Accelerating Returns), whilst others are far more mutable, such as the inclination for people to take up what could be considered as invasive or even soul destroying technology in the forms of human - computer interaction.

However, here are some of the variables that would lead to an eventual technological singularity (please feel free to add):

• Computer Advancement - this is the main one really, and relies on the continuation of Moore's Law through molecular, 3D and quantum computing. It also relies in my view on the development of self-developing software using genetic algorithms, neural networks or some equivalent.
  
• Nanotechnology - This is important if we want to integrate properly with machines and take advantage of all this has to offer. This is as much about winning over public support for this as it does the technological development.
  
• Stable Development Environment - This one is far more open to debate, but what effect will economic, political and social disorder have on the development. Some will argue that it will have none, others that it is fundamental.
  
• Governance and Provenance of the Internet - If the internet gets cut up and isolated as some predict, I think that this will have a very detrimental effect on the singularity. A free and open dissemination of information and resources will be required, initially for research, but later possibly for parallel processing across virtual domains for the early forerunners of AI. Cutting or blocking access across the web will severely hinder this development.

*Edit: Sorry hadn't finished, daughter woke up so had to disappear*

• Neuroscience - Whilst it is true that raw computing power and processing speeds of machines is going to increase, there needs to be a complete overlap with neuroscience to design systems that can achieve 'human' intelligence and beyond.
  
• Materials Science - The development of new materials is essential, both for computers and nanotechnology, without which the advancement of these technologies are going to be limited.

There are other developments that will help, such as new energy sources, new physics, etc. but I consider those above to be the key developments that are required to reach strong AI and the singularity. Now some of these are likely to continue unabated regardless, such as the sciences, but even science needs funding and political stability in which to function, as well as the political and moral will to pursue such eventualities.

But the actual how will it happen? At the moment any theory is exactly that. One can hazard best guesses but no-one (as far as I know) can actually see into the future. Most theories assume that the development can continue unaffected by the other factors going on in the world, and maybe they can, but I don't believe that they would be wholly unaffected by, say, another economic depression.

So assuming that they can continue in some form, I think the general order would be something like:

• Reverse Engineering of the human brain to provide the blueprint for sentience and intelligence.
  
• Development of Quantum Computers to provide the equivalent computing power
  
• Development of software to emulate the human condition
  
• Development of advanced genetic algorithms to allow computers to learn for themselves
  
• Development of self-evolving hardware through nano-technology
  
• Development a massive multi-parallel virtual network within this

If these conditions are all met then I think that the possibility of a technological singularity is inevitable, however without one of these key ingredients the chances are reduced dramatically. Ofc this is only my personal view, and I'm no mystic

[Craven]

Hope you realise I meant Over the Top not Off-topic?

Lulz no I missread it as OT

As for your points - it's all real advancements and factors, but ultimately all those predictions are just guesses, since we still have very limited understanding of intelligence or senitence. And untill we crack this and retro-engineer brain, we won't get AI. Even with YottaFLOPS quantum-processors build of nanotmaterials.

[GNR Rvolution]

Hope you realise I meant Over the Top not Off-topic?

Lulz no I missread it as OT

As for your points - it's all real advancements and factors, but ultimately all those predictions are just guesses, since we still have very limited understanding of intelligence or senitence. And untill we crack this and retro-engineer brain, we won't get AI. Even with YottaFLOPS quantum-processors build of nanotmaterials.

Sorry please see revised post, was interrupted before I could finish

[Prolite]

First one is harder but will come to be faster because we're working only on that.

My problem with modern medicine is that we're only improving sick people, saving endangered lifes, prolonging old lifes. Noone works on therapy that would improve your cooperation skills, enchance your empathy and morality, or remove inclinations to make up your own facts or seeking conspiracy theories anywhere.

If anyone tried to start study to amplify human intelligence, there would be moder witch hunt for him. He'de be deemed as immoral monster that wants to play god, and of course in USA he'd be called intollerant racist, because intelligent people are no better than stupid fucking idiots!

Woahhhh, calm down there batman. I was merely suggesting a storage device that connects to our brains such as the internet, so we can "know things" without actually having to put them to memory.