48 replies to this topic

[MarcZ]

If anyone recalls the dispute of those islands in the Pacific earlier this year, one Australian professor has made a bold prediction that a conflict between China and Japan with U.S. involvement is quite likely in 2013, because once provocations have started like as they have over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands they continue to escalate to war as neither side will bow down. I personally don't think this is going to happen as these are the world's three biggest economies, and have to much to lose economically and politically by going to war with each other, but stupider things have started wars in history. What do you think the chances of such a conflict are? Most certainly such a conflict would be by far the most serious conflict seen since perhaps the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. 

 

http://www.businessi...oyu-war-2012-12

Edited by MarcZ, 30 December 2012 - 12:43 AM.

[OunknnownO]

Nope... Today it's all economy and political influence there are too many connections between states. It would start a ww3. Maybe few missiles will be fired or one or two persons killed but nothing major will happen. Neither side can't afford this war.

[Italian Ufo]

Nahhhhh

[LowLevelFunctionary]

I could see a localised war being very possible - perhaps a Falklands type conflict where strict boundaries of conflict around the islands (for the most part...).

 

This is assuming of course that both leaders match their words with actions.  For the Japanese Prime-Minister though, it could very well be a Thatcher moment if war occurs.

[tornado64]

I don't think there will be war between China and Japan within the next years, even though nationalists in both countries are begging for war. The only way this could happen would be an direct japanese attack and this is unlikely to happen. but we possibly will have a trade war between Japan and China. 

China is not the country who starts a war easily, since the PRC was founded very few wars were started by China (I think two, one with India and one with Vietnam). China can't risk to come into war with the US, thats why they don't attack Taiwan. 

If Japan would start war, the US wouldn't help them, so I think this is also very unlikely.

What are you thinking?

[Raklian]

Not even close.

[Cody930]

No.

[MarcZ]

I could see a localised war being very possible - perhaps a Falklands type conflict where strict boundaries of conflict around the islands (for the most part...).

 

This is assuming of course that both leaders match their words with actions.  For the Japanese Prime-Minister though, it could very well be a Thatcher moment if war occurs.

 

I agree. But Abe the new Japanese prime minister is from Japan's right and may be more ready to provoke a conflict with China. All it takes, especially because of historical circumstances that surround the relations of these two countries is someone to open fire for all out conflict to occur. It's not as if war can't suddenly occur. World War I was probably not envisioned only a few months before it began.

[MarcZ]

I don't think there will be war between China and Japan within the next years, even though nationalists in both countries are begging for war. The only way this could happen would be an direct japanese attack and this is unlikely to happen. but we possibly will have a trade war between Japan and China. 

China is not the country who starts a war easily, since the PRC was founded very few wars were started by China (I think two, one with India and one with Vietnam). China can't risk to come into war with the US, thats why they don't attack Taiwan. 

If Japan would start war, the US wouldn't help them, so I think this is also very unlikely.

What are you thinking?

 

Quite to the contrary. The U.S. would probably still come to Japan's aide if they started a conflict. The U.S. cannot simply allow China to grow unchecked in such a region. If there was war between China and Japan, Japan would certainly lose, and it's loss would be a major setback to U.S. influence in the region, and the U.S. simply cannot afford for that to happen. On top of this, victory for China over Japan would certainly heighten the tensions in the South China Sea and war with Vietnam and The Philippines may then be inevitable. Don't forget there is OIL involved in all this too, or else China would probably not be pursing claims as aggressively as it is. Either way, China is also well aware that the U.S. is also caught up with the possibility of war with Iran. Iranian conflict would only bolsters China's ability to assert itself within it's neighborhood, so the U.S. is being squeezed by two very powerful enemies, and China and Iran may be using the U.S.'s stretched ability to continue their aggressive behavior whether cooperatively or just as opportunists.

[MarcZ]

You folks also have to know the situation currently in Japan where it's far right is rising. The current prime minister denies there were ever "comfort women", does not believe Japan should hold accountability for the acts that occurred during the Rape of Nanking. Believes in having a new Japanese military as part of way to boost spending and revitalize his economy, may even believe in getting nuclear weapons in Japan. This is not a government which is beyond causing conflict. I also think Western schools focus too much in European history in WWII and not enough about Asian history in the same time period, the Chinese, the Korean, practically every country in Asia holds a deep hatred for Japan because it refuses to own up for it's past actions. Just because we don't hear a lot about Japan don't think it's a passive peace loving country, because that is a serious misconception. I've been to China and have a lot of Chinese friends, and I really like them, but no matter how normal they all are, I talked to some of them about Japan once and they all REVILE Japan, and think any conflict against them is well deserved. I think that possibility for a Falklands style conflict in this region is quite possible, maybe not in 2013 but certainly soon.

 

And trust me if Japan provokes, China is more than ready U.S. reaction or not because it has a score it certainly wants to settle.

Edited by MarcZ, 29 December 2012 - 11:31 PM.

[tornado64]

How would you expect this conflict to happen then? Who strikes first and who follows?

 

Nowadays China and the US have a much closer relationship than Japan and the US. Maybe not exactly friendship I wouldn't say the relationship between the two is better, but it is closer because of the trade dependencies. And because of this dependencies none of them can risk a war right now. So I'm really certain that if Japan would first strike China the US wouldn't help them.

The argumentation for war is mostly based on the entering of the US in a war against China and I just don't see that happen as long as China doesn't attack either Taiwan or Japan.

[Cody930]

That may be the case but I think you're taking Abe's position a bit too far. He, Fukuda, and Koizumi all are part of the same nationalist faction of the LDP but that's been like than for a while now without any major uproar. Koizumi was the longest service PM mind you. I'm not acting like it's flowers in the meadow for the region but I don't see a "Go nuts!" PM coming in here. The Korea's have been bickering for a while now and a conflict can easily drag major powers in but they obviously don't want to do it cause of the consequences that would proceed. Such interdependence these days with a war would cause major destabilization of trade and frankly isn't worth it in the end. 

[MarcZ]

How would you expect this conflict to happen then? Who strikes first and who follows?

 

Nowadays China and the US have a much closer relationship than Japan and the US. Maybe not exactly friendship I wouldn't say the relationship between the two is better, but it is closer because of the trade dependencies. And because of this dependencies none of them can risk a war right now. So I'm really certain that if Japan would first strike China the US wouldn't help them.

The argumentation for war is mostly based on the entering of the US in a war against China and I just don't see that happen as long as China doesn't attack either Taiwan or Japan.

 

You may have an overly optimistic view of the situation. The Obama administration views the Chinese as the single biggest adversary to the U.S. thus why the American military is doing the "pivot to Asia".

 

Also the conflict would likely be started by some exchange of fire under pressure. Either side could easily start it in the kind of stand off circumstances you would be likely to see in any major territorial dispute over those islands. Either way China or Japan starting the conflict would be unlikely to change the course of the action of a regional war where the U.S. becomes involved, leaving probably several hundred-thousand casualties before it finally ends.  Very possibly it would result in no actual territorial change but kind of a status quo. Unless of course it occurs after some sort of conflict with Iran, where the U.S. could be overstretched and the Chinese manage to assert control over the territory from Japan which would certainly result in a Japanese rebuilding of the military and a full on swing for America over to Asia, even though that would be likely to be a demoralizing defeat for the Americans.

 

That's how I would see any sort of conflict over these islands playing out.

Edited by MarcZ, 30 December 2012 - 12:40 AM.

[MarcZ]

That may be the case but I think you're taking Abe's position a bit too far. He, Fukuda, and Koizumi all are part of the same nationalist faction of the LDP but that's been like than for a while now without any major uproar. Koizumi was the longest service PM mind you. I'm not acting like it's flowers in the meadow for the region but I don't see a "Go nuts!" PM coming in here. The Korea's have been bickering for a while now and a conflict can easily drag major powers in but they obviously don't want to do it cause of the consequences that would proceed. Such interdependence these days with a war would cause major destabilization of trade and frankly isn't worth it in the end. 

 

Korea I think would stay out of a Chinese-Japan spat altogether considering the Koreans are neither friends of the Chinese or Japanese.

[MarcZ]

Anyways I'm not saying I think it will happen, it was the above professor's prediction which I am just elaborating further upon.

[MarcZ]

Oh and of course Taiwan also claims the islands too, but I'm not quite sure how they play into all of this. Considering this conflict is still ongoing even though the media coverage has calmed a bit from those high profile flotillas to the islands in September, the fact remains that as nationalist tensions increase the idea that the states will remain acting calmly is not exactly a good position to take as soon as far-right views begin to take affect rationalism can be thrown out the window. (Take a look at the Republicans and the Fiscal Cliff for example, no compromise pure ideology).

 

http://www.theglobea...5904643/?page=1

[tornado64]

How would you expect this conflict to happen then? Who strikes first and who follows?

 

Nowadays China and the US have a much closer relationship than Japan and the US. Maybe not exactly friendship I wouldn't say the relationship between the two is better, but it is closer because of the trade dependencies. And because of this dependencies none of them can risk a war right now. So I'm really certain that if Japan would first strike China the US wouldn't help them.

The argumentation for war is mostly based on the entering of the US in a war against China and I just don't see that happen as long as China doesn't attack either Taiwan or Japan.

 

You may have an overly optimistic view of the situation. The Obama administration views the Chinese as the single biggest adversary to the U.S. thus why the American military is doing the "pivot to Asia".

 

Also the conflict would likely be started by some exchange of fire under pressure. Either side could easily start it in the kind of stand off circumstances you would be likely to see in any major territorial dispute over those islands. Either way China or Japan starting the conflict would be unlikely to change the course of the action of a regional war where the U.S. becomes involved, leaving probably several hundred-thousand casualties before it finally ends.  Very possibly it would result in no actual territorial change but kind of a status quo. Unless of course it occurs after some sort of conflict with Iran, where the U.S. could be overstretched and the Chinese manage to assert control over the territory from Japan which would certainly result in a Japanese rebuilding of the military and a full on swing for America over to Asia, even though that would be likely to be a demoralizing defeat for the Americans.

 

That's how I would see any sort of conflict over these islands playing out.

 

My view has nothing to do with optimistic I just know too well what would happen if China and the US would go for war (Chinese-US trade relationships was an important part of my studies of business, economics and chinese culture) and I don't think the leaders in the US and China are that stupid to fuck up their economy for at least a decade.

I'm not saying China and the US liking each other, but their working together fairly well right now and with war they could only loose.

Edited by tornado64, 30 December 2012 - 12:52 AM.

[MarcZ]

How would you expect this conflict to happen then? Who strikes first and who follows?

 

Nowadays China and the US have a much closer relationship than Japan and the US. Maybe not exactly friendship I wouldn't say the relationship between the two is better, but it is closer because of the trade dependencies. And because of this dependencies none of them can risk a war right now. So I'm really certain that if Japan would first strike China the US wouldn't help them.

The argumentation for war is mostly based on the entering of the US in a war against China and I just don't see that happen as long as China doesn't attack either Taiwan or Japan.

 

You may have an overly optimistic view of the situation. The Obama administration views the Chinese as the single biggest adversary to the U.S. thus why the American military is doing the "pivot to Asia".

 

Also the conflict would likely be started by some exchange of fire under pressure. Either side could easily start it in the kind of stand off circumstances you would be likely to see in any major territorial dispute over those islands. Either way China or Japan starting the conflict would be unlikely to change the course of the action of a regional war where the U.S. becomes involved, leaving probably several hundred-thousand casualties before it finally ends.  Very possibly it would result in no actual territorial change but kind of a status quo. Unless of course it occurs after some sort of conflict with Iran, where the U.S. could be overstretched and the Chinese manage to assert control over the territory from Japan which would certainly result in a Japanese rebuilding of the military and a full on swing for America over to Asia, even though that would be likely to be a demoralizing defeat for the Americans.

 

That's how I would see any sort of conflict over these islands playing out.

 

My view has nothing to do with optimistic I just know too well what would happen if China and the US would go for war (Chinese-US trade relationships was an important part of my studies of business, economics and chinese culture) and I don't think the leaders in the US and China are that stupid to fuck up their economy for at least a decade.

I'm not saying China and the US liking each other, but their working together fairly well right now and with war they could only loose.

 

As I said, you wouldn't think so. But nationalism makes countries do stupid things, and I think the Japanese would be the most likely to provoke China to do something anywho. 

[MarcZ]

A great piece on U.S. intelligence on Chinese military strategy supporting the idea of China's war through deception. 

 

http://www.japantime...20121213bc.html

[tornado64]

I agree that another sino-japanese war could happen, but I think only if Japan strikes first. 

China will strenghten it's presence in the south chinese sea, because they want the role for the region the US now has for the world, but   they are not stupid, they now how far they can go. From my view Japan wouldn't go for war, they know they lost already as a pacific superpower long ago. However they will make some noise as it is expected from them so they don't loose their face. In the end China will have much stronger influence in the region but without having a real war. However I'm not an expert in japanese politics so I'm not 100% sure they wouldn't go for war, but I'm certain for China because they will be much better off if they just wait. They will gain in economical and military power during that time and they can't risk US involvement.