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End of history and the last woman

trends long term far future the far future demographics fertility fertility rates population society marriage

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Some VERY long term trends here.

I doubt these will actually happen though. We'll find a way to reverse the decline. :cool:



End of history and the last woman

How long do countries have until their populations disappear?

As The Economist reports this week, many women in the richer parts of Asia have gone on “marriage strike”, preferring the single life to the marital yoke. That is one reason why their fertility rates have fallen. And they are not alone. In 83 countries and territories around the world, according to the United Nations, women will not have enough daughters to replace themselves, unless fertility rates rise. In Hong Kong, for example, a cohort of 1,000 women would be expected to give birth to just 547 daughters, at today’s fertility rates. (That gives Hong Kong a “net reproduction rate” of just 0.547, in the language of demographers.) If nothing changed, those 547 daughters would be succeeded by just 299 daughters of their own, and so on. At that rate, according to some back-of-the-envelope calculations by The Economist, it would take about 25 generations for Hong Kong’s female population to shrink from 3.75m to just one. Given that Hong Kong’s average age of childbearing is 31.4 years, it could expect to give birth to its last woman in the year 2798. (That is some time after its neighbour, Macau, which has a higher reproduction rate, but a much smaller population.) By the same unflinching logic, Japan, Germany, Russia, Italy and Spain will not see out the next millennium. Even China, which has a recorded history stretching back at least 3,700 years, has only about 1,500 years left—if present trends continued unbroken.

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    Cosmic Emperor

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this like.. don-sent consider the ones who do propagate..

We make our world significant by the courage of our questions and the depth of our answers. - Carl Sagan



    Not a Member of the Tea Party! Just a Concerned Conservative

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So What? In the year 5000 nobody's going to get pregnant? Actually, though, doesn't this not take into account the scientific and technological advances that will be made by the year 5000? There probably will be some type of population control, but civilization will be SO different that far ahead in the future. We can't know for sure. And women won't disappear. Men like variety!!!
"Did you really expect some utopian fantasy to rise from the ashes?" Thomas Zarek-- Battlestar Galactica.

Dead Redshirt

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"End of history" is rather definite. I don't think history ever ends. It flows, just like time, and continues even when we're not there, just like dinosaurs are part of earth's history. In this way, it's very much like the Mayan calendar.
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world. - Jack Layton - 1950 - 2011

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