Jump to content

Welcome to FutureTimeline.forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!

These ads will disappear if you register on the forum

Photo

Cheap Oil in the Future?


  • Please log in to reply
140 replies to this topic

#1
Zachemc2

Zachemc2

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 507 posts
People like to point high oil prices to a term called 'peak oil'. Have any of you considered that high oil prices are caused by government regulation? I mean, look at electricity. If we (referring to the United States) drill all that we can, everywhere we can, we could see gas go back down to the late 1990s levels (inflation adjusted, of course) by the 2020s. What do you think?

#2
OrbitalResonance

OrbitalResonance

    Cosmic Emperor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,231 posts
  • LocationDeep Space
What will happen with the non-renewable resource runs out? I say get off it now.

We make our world significant by the courage of our questions and the depth of our answers. - Carl Sagan


#3
Zachemc2

Zachemc2

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 507 posts

What will happen with the non-renewable resource runs out? I say get off it now.

If we get off of it now, we'll see a horrible economic impact. The private market is gradually making a transition towards renewable energy. Electric cars are becoming more popular. All we need is enough to oil to last until that transition is complete. We have enough, but the government won't let us drill it. If we can get to that point without government regulation and economic recession, everyone wins. I predict late-2050s, y'know, the singularity, is when this transition will be complete.

#4
Innsertnamehere

Innsertnamehere

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 121 posts
Better to wane off it like we are now than to hit a sudden wall when oil runs out.

#5
truthiness

truthiness

    The Squire of Gothos

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 484 posts
  • LocationKalamazoo MI
Sounds good, but your market forces that are driving people to switch to electric cars and public transit will vanish if we drove gas prices back to the $2 a gallon range... we'll just be delaying the crash until a point where we really don't have any (cheap) oil left... do you think people will be willing to cough up $50 grand (or more) for an electric minivan or an electric semi or electric tractors or electric construction equipment when gas is $2 a gallon? Of course they should, but will they? I doubt it.
  • wjfox likes this
You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us, and the world will be as one

#6
Prolite

Prolite

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 609 posts

People like to point high oil prices to a term called 'peak oil'. Have any of you considered that high oil prices are caused by government regulation? I mean, look at electricity. If we (referring to the United States) drill all that we can, everywhere we can, we could see gas go back down to the late 1990s levels (inflation adjusted, of course) by the 2020s. What do you think?


High oil prices are caused by LACK of regulation, not the opposite. Approx. 60% of the total price of gasoline is caused by oil speculation. This was due in fact to the repeal of the Glass/Steagall legislation, causing today's Great Recession and high gas prices, not to mention the Great Depression since the Glass/Steagall was a RESULT of the Great Depression.

http://en.wikipedia....%93Steagall_Act

Because of lack of regulation, "provisions that prohibit a bank holding company from owning other financial companies were repealed on November 12, 1999, by the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act, named after its co-sponsors Phil Gramm (R, Texas), Rep. Jim Leach (R, Iowa), and Rep. Thomas J. Bliley, Jr. (R, Virginia)."

In other words, financial firms can BUY large sums of oil, allow speculators to BID on the price of that oil, and than resell that oil on the open market. That's why this whole Republican idea of, "well, if we drill everywhere" is nullified by what happened in Congress in 1999. That's why Democrats hate it when Republicans go off on their stupid "drill baby drill" ordeal because Democrats know of the fact of history called 'repeal of Glass/Steagall legislation'.
I'm a business man, that's all you need to know about me.

#7
KingstonDon

KingstonDon

    The Rationalist Monk

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 264 posts
  • LocationKortrijk, Belgium
Not to mention, The 'drill everywhere" scenario would be devastating to alot of wildlife territories and beautiful landscapes... I mean, Imagine the pristine view of Yellowstone national park interrrupted by an oil drill or the soil being polluted by the heavy industry that inherently comes with Oil Drilling... Or for the brits among us imagine The Lake District's views obstructed by an oil drill, shrouded in the fog of industry ... It is forbidden to drill everywhere not only because it wouldn't help that much in the end but also because our countries MUST remain liveable, many people have long since realised that unhindered industrial development while "fine and dandy" in the short term is detrimental on the long term. Based on this I say, wean off it now, endure a little discomfort in the spirit of sustainability. We have this responsibility to our descendants and the Earth.

#8
Zachemc2

Zachemc2

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 507 posts
I'll use something else to make my point. Scenario one: A company makes Teddy bears. 10,000,000 kids want Teddy bears. However, the government says that they can't get toy materials from certian places that are rich in resources. Therefore, only 6,000,000 Teddy bears are produced. Scenario two: A company makes Teddy bears. 10,000,000 kids want Teddy bears. The company can get materials from lots of places. Therefore, 14,000,000 Teddy bears are produced. In which scenario would the price of Teddy bears would be lower, and which higher?

#9
Zachemc2

Zachemc2

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 507 posts
I'm mainly referring to ANWR and the Gulf of Mexico. Also, you cannot force everyone to stop using oil. That'd be an economic collapse.

#10
Prolite

Prolite

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 609 posts

I'll use something else to make my point.

Scenario one:
A company makes Teddy bears. 10,000,000 kids want Teddy bears. However, the government says that they can't get toy materials from certian places that are rich in resources. Therefore, only 6,000,000 Teddy bears are produced.

Scenario two:
A company makes Teddy bears. 10,000,000 kids want Teddy bears. The company can get materials from lots of places. Therefore, 14,000,000 Teddy bears are produced.

In which scenario would the price of Teddy bears would be lower, and which higher?


Your first post the post that I originally quoted, you defined quite clearly. And especially since I'm a business person, it was more than obvious of what you were trying to say. There's no need to redefine your point. Your argument is not justified to the reality of the situation based on lack of regulation in bank holding companies, banks, rating agencies, and commodity trading (oil) on the stock market based on speculation and not supply and demand. Your supposition would impact the price of oil by 2 cents a gallon, providing that oil companies can drill "everywhere". For 2 cents a gallon, the tradeoff is blundered.
I'm a business man, that's all you need to know about me.

#11
Zachemc2

Zachemc2

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 507 posts
Two cents a gallon if none of our oil was imported. We could be energy independent if we drilled everything we could. Lower transportation costs and less cost of the oil itself, as we're currently importing the oil from countries who dislike the US. Lower taxes on companies (bring it down to about 10% tax rate) and oil itself. And then BAM.. $2.25 gas.

#12
truthiness

truthiness

    The Squire of Gothos

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 484 posts
  • LocationKalamazoo MI

We could be energy independent if we drilled everything we could.


Sounds pretty nice... you might even be able to get your driver's license and take one last long drive before the economy completely crashes when we start running out of oil planet-wide because we were too foolish to make the switch away from oil when we had the chance.
You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us, and the world will be as one

#13
Zachemc2

Zachemc2

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 507 posts

Sounds good, but your market forces that are driving people to switch to electric cars and public transit will vanish if we drove gas prices back to the $2 a gallon range... we'll just be delaying the crash until a point where we really don't have any (cheap) oil left... do you think people will be willing to cough up $50 grand (or more) for an electric minivan or an electric semi or electric tractors or electric construction equipment when gas is $2 a gallon? Of course they should, but will they? I doubt it.

The costs will come down and will soon be more appealing than regular cars. We just need enough oil to keep the price of gas low until then.

#14
truthiness

truthiness

    The Squire of Gothos

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 484 posts
  • LocationKalamazoo MI

The costs will come down and will soon be more appealing than regular cars. We just need enough oil to keep the price of gas low until then.


We've played that game before... in 1973 America learned its first lesson about peak oil shortly after America reached its production peak. OPEC issued an embargo against the US due to our policy toward Israel. America was unable to provide enough native supply to keep gas stations going. In the aftermath there was a massive public push toward smaller cars, and the speed limit was lowered nationally to 55mph to conserve fuel. During the late 70s and through the 80s American car companies were crushed by Japanese and European manufacturers because the American car companies were geared toward producing larger and faster vehicles with poor gas mileage, and had to go through the process of developing safe compact cars, which the rest of the world had already mastered... Then the 90s came along, and oil became cheap due to ramped up production of the largest fields in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. American car companies and the American economy made a massive comeback... urban sprawl reached out beyond 30 miles from most major cities, and people were commuting in comfortable, luxurious, and safe SUVs. American car companies shelved compact car and electric car designs in favor of bulkier and faster cars whose fuel efficiency was pathetic, because after all, who cares? Fueling up even the largest SUVs was only $30... What could go wrong?

Point is, car companies will make the cars that people demand today. If gas prices fall again, demand will shift again toward inefficient cars. By the time fuel prices begin to climb again, this time inexorably, the electric car industry will remain in its infancy.
  • wjfox likes this
You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us, and the world will be as one

#15
Zachemc2

Zachemc2

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 507 posts
However this time, companies are actually pushing for electric cars. One day, they will be cheaper than a regular car. When that comes, everyone will buy an electric car.

#16
Prolite

Prolite

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 609 posts

Two cents a gallon if none of our oil was imported. We could be energy independent if we drilled everything we could. Lower transportation costs and less cost of the oil itself, as we're currently importing the oil from countries who dislike the US. Lower taxes on companies (bring it down to about 10% tax rate) and oil itself. And then BAM.. $2.25 gas.


How many times are you going to ignore facts? Let me make it more clear to you:
http://en.wikipedia....%93Steagall_Act
What part do you not get about HISTORY? Secondly, your comment about, "if oil was only imported it would knock off 2 cents a gallon", is a lie. You're entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. Oil is traded on the global market. You are completely ignorant of business and how business works.

We could be energy independent if we drilled everything we could.


That's just flat out wrong. Moreover, the oil market doesn't work that way. Oil is sold on the global market, obviously. We get most of our oil from Canada, and a great deal from South America from "Chavez."

Lower transportation costs and less cost of the oil itself, as we're currently importing the oil from countries who dislike the US. Lower taxes on companies (bring it down to about 10% tax rate) and oil itself. And then BAM.. $2.25 gas.


Everything you said aforementioned is incorrect and ludicrous. 60% of the price of oil is caused by oil speculation due to the fact that the Glass/Steagall Act was repealed by Republicans in 1999. Republicans have destroyed this economy, along with a few Democrats. Ben Nelson is an *****

Let me remind you ONCE AGAIN why we have high oil prices. This bill was repealed:
http://en.wikipedia....%93Steagall_Act

It's LACK OF REGULATION that's causing the oil prices to be so high. It' has nothing to do with supply and demand as you so claim. You show a great ignorance on this subject. In fact, everything you said was a flat out lie, and/or made-up, or a delusional fantasy. Lower taxes on oil companies that are already being subsidized by billions, some which including Exxon that's NOT PAYING ANY TAXES AT ALL is going to help them be less greedy? And make them lower the price of oil? Really? You're argument is idiotic, and if we were in person, I'd use a better choice word for your comment and I promise you, it wouldn't start with fluffy. You're a hard-lined right wing nut job with tea-bag in your blood. Go spew your ignorance elsewhere.
  • wjfox likes this
I'm a business man, that's all you need to know about me.

#17
sirhotalot

sirhotalot

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 67 posts

People like to point high oil prices to a term called 'peak oil'. Have any of you considered that high oil prices are caused by government regulation? I mean, look at electricity. If we (referring to the United States) drill all that we can, everywhere we can, we could see gas go back down to the late 1990s levels (inflation adjusted, of course) by the 2020s. What do you think?


America plans on drilling everywhere it can to get as much of it as it can. It's a lot more complex than that though. The world is industrializing and it's doing it fast. Everyone needs oil and there's not enough of it to go around. Problems in the middle east could get worse which could drive up oil prices to anywhere as high as $200 a barrel.

America plans on slowing down the industrialization of other countries through any means necessary, it's not going to give up it's way of life without a fight. We are also looking for alternatives because our reliance on oil is unsustainable, but it takes time.

It's LACK OF REGULATION that's causing the oil prices to be so high. It' has nothing to do with supply and demand as you so claim. You show a great ignorance on this subject. In fact, everything you said was a flat out lie, and/or made-up, or a delusional fantasy. Lower taxes on oil companies that are already being subsidized by billions, some which including Exxon that's NOT PAYING ANY TAXES AT ALL is going to help them be less greedy? And make them lower the price of oil? Really? You're argument is idiotic, and if we were in person, I'd use a better choice word for your comment and I promise you, it wouldn't start with fluffy. You're a hard-lined right wing nut job with tea-bag in your blood. Go spew your ignorance elsewhere.


Dear God you have no idea what you're talking about.

#18
sirhotalot

sirhotalot

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 67 posts
Edit: Accidental double post.

#19
Zachemc2

Zachemc2

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 507 posts


Two cents a gallon if none of our oil was imported. We could be energy independent if we drilled everything we could. Lower transportation costs and less cost of the oil itself, as we're currently importing the oil from countries who dislike the US. Lower taxes on companies (bring it down to about 10% tax rate) and oil itself. And then BAM.. $2.25 gas.


How many times are you going to ignore facts? Let me make it more clear to you:
http://en.wikipedia....%93Steagall_Act
What part do you not get about HISTORY? Secondly, your comment about, "if oil was only imported it would knock off 2 cents a gallon", is a lie. You're entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. Oil is traded on the global market. You are completely ignorant of business and how business works.

I said that if none of our oil was imported and that if we drilled more, the price would be lowered by 2 cents a gallon. However, most of our oil is imported, and producing our own oil would reduce the price even more.


Exxon that's NOT PAYING ANY TAXES AT ALL

You're kidding right? Instead of reading a liberal blog, how about take the tax info from ExxonMobil itself? (Source)
Posted Image

And make them lower the price of oil? Really? You're argument is idiotic, and if we were in person, I'd use a better choice word for your comment and I promise you, it wouldn't start with fluffy.

Seriously, stop twisting my words. Lowering the taxes on oil companies would make them pass on less taxes to the consumers. Lowering the taxes on oil itself would push the price lower.

#20
KingstonDon

KingstonDon

    The Rationalist Monk

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 264 posts
  • LocationKortrijk, Belgium



Two cents a gallon if none of our oil was imported. We could be energy independent if we drilled everything we could. Lower transportation costs and less cost of the oil itself, as we're currently importing the oil from countries who dislike the US. Lower taxes on companies (bring it down to about 10% tax rate) and oil itself. And then BAM.. $2.25 gas.


How many times are you going to ignore facts? Let me make it more clear to you:
http://en.wikipedia....%93Steagall_Act
What part do you not get about HISTORY? Secondly, your comment about, "if oil was only imported it would knock off 2 cents a gallon", is a lie. You're entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. Oil is traded on the global market. You are completely ignorant of business and how business works.

I said that if none of our oil was imported and that if we drilled more, the price would be lowered by 2 cents a gallon. However, most of our oil is imported, and producing our own oil would reduce the price even more.


Exxon that's NOT PAYING ANY TAXES AT ALL

You're kidding right? Instead of reading a liberal blog, how about take the tax info from ExxonMobil itself? (Source)
Posted Image

And make them lower the price of oil? Really? You're argument is idiotic, and if we were in person, I'd use a better choice word for your comment and I promise you, it wouldn't start with fluffy.

Seriously, stop twisting my words. Lowering the taxes on oil companies would make them pass on less taxes to the consumers. Lowering the taxes on oil itself would push the price lower.


First, For everyone, it's time to get less personal in discussions.

Second, lowering taxes on oil companies would help to do naught but increase revenue and do nothing to decrease the price for consumers because Taxes are calculated on the revenues, so what happens when you decrease a cost? an increase in profit.
Why would you then lower your revenue because you've got less costs by lowering the price you ask? Charity?

Third, the only thing that would lower the price is to decrease the "Value-Added-Tax" , the effective tax a consumer pays on a good, at least in the UK and other developed nations but governments would only touch this in the most dire of circumstances because it's a great revenue source. So in essence your plan would not work because of the above factors.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users