10 replies to this topic

[Zachemc2]

I still think the bubbles will happen, but for predicting future GDP, that was complete bullshit. I also put inflation into the GDP growth numbers. I know, fail. Anyways, with no bubbles, as assuming that the US can get its debt under control and lower taxes to more sustainable levels, I predict 2010-2050 GDP growth will be 3.4%. This will bring us to a 2050 GDP of $55.803 trillion. However, we now need to account for inflation. So, we now have a result of $163,497,070,000,000. Giving a population of 477,500,000, we have a GDP per capita of $342,402. I also think that the United States will account for 31% of global GDP in the year 2050. This prediction is based on the decline of the EU and a property bubble burst and economic collapse in China in 2016. By this time, India and Brazil will be #2 and #3, respectively.

[Zachemc2]

Added more info.

[truthiness]

So many questions.... Even if the EU collapses as a singular entity, don't you think Germany or France or Britain will go on as individual powers? What about Russia? How will America sustain its current growth rate without oil? Can China really collapse so far as to be below India (or Brazil?)? China has a lot of industrial capital that won't really go anywhere even if its housing market falls apart, unless perhaps a financial collapse in China leads to some kind of mass revolt against the ruling communist party, but that seems like a bit of a stretch. What will the US be making that will allow us to remain so firmly on top of the rest of the world at this time? We were able to dominate the late 21st century for two primary reasons; we were the only industrialized country that didn't have most of its infrastructure reduced to rubble following World War II, and we had a large supply of oil at home, which peaked in the early 1970s. America is well past peak now, and the rest of the industrialized world has long since repaired itself. We are neglecting our education for our young while our competitors are pushing higher and higher standards, and we are allowing our edge in high-technology and science to slip away, bit by bit. We're the only first-world nation where you can lose a cell-phone signal and we're lagging behind in wireless coverage and average internet user speed.

How exactly are we to remain on top?

[Zachemc2]

So many questions.... Even if the EU collapses as a singular entity, don't you think Germany or France or Britain will go on as individual powers? What about Russia? How will America sustain its current growth rate without oil? Can China really collapse so far as to be below India (or Brazil?)? China has a lot of industrial capital that won't really go anywhere even if its housing market falls apart, unless perhaps a financial collapse in China leads to some kind of mass revolt against the ruling communist party, but that seems like a bit of a stretch. What will the US be making that will allow us to remain so firmly on top of the rest of the world at this time? We were able to dominate the late 21st century for two primary reasons; we were the only industrialized country that didn't have most of its infrastructure reduced to rubble following World War II, and we had a large supply of oil at home, which peaked in the early 1970s. America is well past peak now, and the rest of the industrialized world has long since repaired itself. We are neglecting our education for our young while our competitors are pushing higher and higher standards, and we are allowing our edge in high-technology and science to slip away, bit by bit. We're the only first-world nation where you can lose a cell-phone signal and we're lagging behind in wireless coverage and average internet user speed.

How exactly are we to remain on top?

I never said that the EU will collapse, I said that it would decline. America by this time will probably be off of fossil fuels. Drilling where we have oil should sustain us until that point. Russia I could see somewhere in the top six by PPP. During the American housing bubble, 6% of GDP was chopped off in a year. The Chinese property bubble is five times the increase in property prices, so 30% off of GDP and probably a 10-year recession following that. The EU have been experiencing horrible economic growth in recent times. The US is still in a state where the bad things (such as out-of-control government spending) are reversible. For the EU, it would need a dramatic change and probably would cause a major revolt. As for Education, part of balancing the budget is abolishing the Department of Education. Bam. Problem fixed. Before that department was put into the place, education was good. And look now, a piece of shit.

[Innsertnamehere]

There are so many holes in this it isn't even funny. But I can't blame because if you asked me what GDP was when I was 13, I probably would have guessed a kind of car.

[Wesfky]

For the EU, it would need a dramatic change and probably would cause a major revolt.

I wouldn't blame them, communism is far less stressful. I mean seriously economic collapses, housing bubbles, economic declines, high unemployment and debt are all very annoying.

[jjf3]

So is being slaves! But if people would choose not to think about this stuff and become communists be my guest. I could never do that.

[Wesfky]

Being a slave is not less stressful. If i were a slave I would be worried about my high chance of getting injured and if I got injury I would only be treated back to health if it was profitable, otherwise I would be left for dead, or probably sold as dog slave food to limit the about of losses.

[Zachemc2]

There are so many holes in this it isn't even funny. But I can't blame because if you asked me what GDP was when I was 13, I probably would have guessed a kind of car.

How? I just put in 3.2% and adjusted for inflation.

[Unrequited Lust]

There are so many holes in this it isn't even funny. But I can't blame because if you asked me what GDP was when I was 13, I probably would have guessed a kind of car.

How? I just put in 3.2% and adjusted for inflation.

3.2% is a completely arbitrary number from my understanding. That automatically makes the prediction bullshit.

[Zachemc2]

There are so many holes in this it isn't even funny. But I can't blame because if you asked me what GDP was when I was 13, I probably would have guessed a kind of car.

How? I just put in 3.2% and adjusted for inflation.

3.2% is a completely arbitrary number from my understanding. That automatically makes the prediction bullshit.

The US GDP's growth rate has been around 3.0-3.5% historically.