Weekly jobless claims post lowest reading since September 2022
Source: CNBC
The labor market continued to show surprising resiliency in the early days of 2024, with initial jobless claims posting an unexpected drop last week.
Initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled 187,000 for the week ended Jan. 13, the lowest level since Sept. 24, 2022, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The total marked a 16,000 decline from the previous week and came in below the Dow Jones estimate of 208,000.
Labor strength has persisted despite attempts by the Federal Reserve to slow the economy, and the jobs market in particular, through a series of interest rate hikes. Central bank policymakers have linked the supply-demand mismatch between companies and the available labor pool as an ingredient that had sent inflation to its highest level in more than 40 years.
Along with the drop in weekly claims came an unexpected decline of 26,000 in continuing claims, which run a week behind. The total for continuing claims hit 1.806 million, below the FactSet estimate for 1.83 million.
Chipotle Wants to Hire 19,000 Workers for Busy Spring Season, Will Offer New Financial Perks by Amelia Lucas
January 24, 2024
Introduction:
(CNBC Chipotle Mexican Grill hopes to recruit 19,000 new employees to make its burritos and bowls this spring, the company said Wednesday.
The company's hiring target suggests it's expecting an even busier spring than usual, despite another round of menu price hikes in October. The chain's recruitment goal is about 27% higher than a year ago, when it sought 15,000 new workers for its so-called burrito season in March through May.
For Chipotle, having enough workers becomes even more important during its busy period. The chain needs plenty of employees to meet higher demand. The spring weather lures back Chipotle customers who stayed away during the winter months, but the chain's concentration in college towns means sales usually slow in the summer.
Chipotle has more than 110,00 workers currently.
Attracting workers has become more difficult for the restaurant industry in recent years, largely due to the pandemic. Hundreds of thousands of restaurant jobs disappeared as bars and eateries shuttered, either temporarily or permanently. Industry veterans switched to white-collar or warehouse jobs, seeking safety from Covid-19, better working conditions or both. In September, the restaurant workforce finally bounced back to pre-pandemic levels, according to Department of Labor data.
Kind of a big deal as the finish line is officially in sight now with 2.0% being the goal.
Powell landed this thing remarkably well. The growth we saw reported yesterday is pretty amazing considering the constraints that are currently holding the economy back.
At full employment, growth over 3%, real wages up since 2019 (means wage growth > than inflation over that time period), PCE heading to the goal of 2.0% quickly. And all of this with interest rates above where they usually are. We have interest rate cuts coming and that's going to grow the economy.
And through all of this, the interest rate hikes didn't cool off the housing market, so there will be no bubble bursting.
Not to rub it in (too much) but I think I was just about the only person in this forum who doubted that the economy would go into recession in 2023. I indicated that if it did go into a recession, it would be mild. So, I did hedge my bet a little bit.
Powell: Federal Reserve on track to cut rates this year with inflation slowing and economy healthy
Source: Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Chair Jerome Powell said in an interview broadcast Sunday night that the Federal Reserve remains on track to cut interest rates three times this year, a move that’s expected to begin as early as May.
Powell, in an interview recorded Thursday for the CBS news program “60 Minutes,” also said the nation’s job market and economy are strong, with no sign of a recession on the horizon.
“I do think the economy is in a good place,” he said, “and there’s every reason to think it can get better.”
Powell’s comments largely echoed remarks he gave at a news conference Wednesday, after the Fed decided to keep its key interest rate steady at about 5.4%, a 22-year high. To fight inflation, the Fed raised its benchmark rate 11 times beginning in March 2022, causing loans for consumers and businesses to become much more expensive.
With 3.53% YoY growth, World GDP will get twice as big as today in 20 years. With 4.8% YoY growth (more probable), it will get 2x big in just 15 years. This won't be a revolution, but a gradual change in overall development.
Unemployment in most countries will stay below 5% for a long, long, long time (certainly for the next 100 years). I am 99.5% sure about that. People just will work 5-6 hours or 4 days or something like that. And they will be more productive. More work will get done!
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.4% in January as expected, up 2.8% from a year ago
Source: CNBC
Published Thu, Feb 29 2024 8:32 AM EST Updated 2 Min Ago
Inflation rose in line with expectations in January, according to an important gauge the Federal Reserve uses as it deliberates cutting interest rates.
The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago, as expected according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
Headline PCE, including the volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 2.4%.
The moves came amid an unexpected jump in personal income, which rose 1%, well above the forecast for 0.3%. Spending decreased 0.1% vs. the estimate for a 0.2% gain.
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