Ray Kurzweil on the Joe Rogan show

[funkervogt]

"Exponential" got flung around so many times it nearly ruptured the spacetime continuum.


This is the most sluggish I've ever seen Ray. The 80 pills a day can only help so much at his age.

[Ozzie guy]

His in a tough spot. Like many proper high iq geniuses his a bit autistic and hence doesn't know how to live a healthy neurotypical senior life. In his old age he needs to he involved in the world to remain mentally fit and the only way he knows how to do so is though his work as a futurist/speaker. People in singularity type communities also beg to see more of him. So his propelled to do things like make appearances and write his book but is shat on for performing poorly due to old age. I know he has a job at Google but I feel like he is kept there like an artefact or painting rather than actually doing anything these days.

I wonder if covid isolation sped up mental ageing or if that's a coincidence.

He might be stressed over potentially dying pre age reversal I'd actually find it quite sad if he did.

[Powers]

He might be stressed over potentially dying pre age reversal I'd actually find it quite sad if he did.

Not to encourage it but I honestly think everyone here also will.

[weatheriscool]

He might be stressed over potentially dying pre age reversal I'd actually find it quite sad if he did.

Not to encourage it but I honestly think everyone here also will.

If you're serious about getting this to market you need to be voting democrat and hoping like hell the republicans lose every federal presidential election of the next 30 years.

I think we're probably at least 25 years off and such a vaccine or pill that stops the aging process in humans and it needs to be approved by the federal government. We want an fda that isn't ban happy that is for sure.

[Tadasuke]

This is the most sluggish I've ever seen Ray. The 80 pills a day can only help so much at his age.

So much for the "exponential improvement" and "exponential intelligence" he's written and talked so much about. I know people his age or older, who seem to be in a better condition (take my grandmas for example). They also aren't unusually obsessed like him and are more neurotypical than him. I'm myself a bit aspie, ocd and perfectionist, so I can relate. Although, I wouldn't call myself a true introvert, I can talk for hours. He seems to like talking as well, about his favourite subjects and obsessions, of course.

Humans aren't large language models. NPUs in smartphones (or some other computers) might improve exponentially in performance every year, but our neocortex doesn't (at least for now). The best you can do is to shape it by proper experiences, exercises and reasonably healthy lifestyle (swallowing pills usually doesn't make you healthy, trust me, I've tried).

I don't think everything will change by 2029 (excluding WW3). Computers will be a bit faster, precision fermentation will be cheaper, electric cars will be cheaper and better, software will be more robust, the economies will be a bit stronger, human lives will be probably slightly longer and there will be more of everything. But it won't be "life before 2029" and "life after 2029" kind of thing.

[Tadasuke]

My guess is that R.K. will further decline mentally and die in the early 2040s, a few years before rejuvenation becomes available. He's just born a generation too early. Bad luck? His children are going to survive and live for hundreds or even possibly thousands of years after he's dead. There will be a virtual artificial model of R.K. AI and probably of his father. But it won't really be them.

He is simply too optimistic, but he has some good points, like the point that most people fail to realize we live in an exponential reality instead of linear reality in terms of the pace of overall change.

[Tadasuke]

He's been talking and writing for decades about the importance of accurate timing. And he's definitely right about the importance of timing. But his timing is unfortunately very wrong.

For example, I'm trying my best to write this post using my voice in Microsoft Edge, but it gets the vast majority wrong. It's 2024 and it still doesn't work for me (maybe it's the way I'm speaking, but people generally seem to understand me). He predicted good voice recognition and good (both-direction) language translation for ... 2009.

I wrote in the FT Singularity thread, that a $1000 2023 laptop was 1000x weaker than his prediction for a $1000 2023 laptop. It's not a trivial matter! 1000x is nothing to sneeze at! Vastly different capabilities would be available if we had 1000x faster machines already.

In the past (for example in 2012 or 2013) he talked and obsessed over the year 2020 and 2023. Now he's obsessed over the year 2029 and 2030. I've heard that before. 2020 came and what we've got? Covid and cryptocurrency craze. That's what we got. No 3D-printed clothes, music instruments, houses and food.

Timing is almost everything. It's super crucial. Do something too early and it won't be effective. Do something too late it won't be effective either. So it's extremely important for your timing to not be off the mark.

[funkervogt]

Here's an analysis of the Kurzweil interview and its key points. Much faster to read than listening to the entire two-hour podcast.
https://www.militantfuturist.com/im-ok- ... s-smarter/

[JohnMeeks]

This is the most sluggish I've ever seen Ray. The 80 pills a day can only help so much at his age.

So much for the "exponential improvement" and "exponential intelligence" he's written and talked so much about. I know people his age or older, who seem to be in a better condition (take my grandmas for example). They also aren't unusually obsessed like him and are more neurotypical than him. I'm myself a bit aspie, ocd and perfectionist, so I can relate. Although, I wouldn't call myself a true introvert, I can talk for hours. He seems to like talking as well, about his favourite subjects and obsessions, of course.

Humans aren't large language models. NPUs in smartphones (or some other computers) might improve exponentially in performance every year, but our neocortex doesn't (at least for now). The best you can do is to shape it by proper experiences, exercises and reasonably healthy lifestyle (swallowing pills usually doesn't make you healthy, trust me, I've tried).

I don't think everything will change by 2029 (excluding WW3). Computers will be a bit faster, precision fermentation will be cheaper, electric cars will be cheaper and better, software will be more robust, the economies will be a bit stronger, human lives will be probably slightly longer and there will be more of everything. But it won't be "life before 2029" and "life after 2029" kind of thing.

I wonder whether exponential technological development truly brings more knowledge and understanding to people's lives, or if it merely creates an illusion of progress. I think that by 2029, not much will have changed significantly. For example, the AI trend boom has somewhat slowed down. I've even noticed that various plugins for ChatGPT are being created, such as essay writer to enhance it. It may have become smarter, but I haven't noticed that myself.

[40lightyears]

A healthy dose of skepticism! You're right to question the notion that exponential technological development will necessarily lead to significant changes in people's lives by 2029. While technology will undoubtedly continue to advance, it's possible that the impact on daily life might be more incremental than revolutionary.

[Tadasuke]

Overall, I recommend reading or listening to Kurzweil's new book. Even, if it's not be accurate in timing future changes.

[JohnMeeks]

Overall, I recommend reading or listening to Kurzweil's new book. Even, if it's not be accurate in timing future changes.Overall, I recommend reading or listening to Kurzweil's new book, even if it may not be accurate in predicting future changes. I remember a school project where we had to calculate statistics based on the predictions he made. To be honest, I also used the website https://essays.edubirdie.com/statistic-assignment-help and I even managed to impress the teacher. It was interesting to see how much of his analysis relied on data trends, but we also noticed how difficult it is to predict exact timelines.

Yes, I've heard it's very well-written! Thank you for the recommendation. I'm really looking forward to reading it!

[Tadasuke]

R.K. is on the newest episode of Peter Diamandis podcast:



I am and of the few people who actually remembers his past predictions accurately. Because I tend to remember specific things well, while forgetting almost all others.

He always talks about what according to his predictions is going to happen in 5 - 10 years .... and he's always wrong.

In 2005 he was saying that in 2010 computers will be embedded in everything around us, we will use AR glasses, play games in VR, and routinely use speech to text and talk to AI assistants. Not the 2010 I remember.

In 2012 he was talking that in 2020 there will be robots the size of a red blood cell, normal home computers will equal the human brain, 3D printers will print clothing, footwear, human organs, food and buildings of various shapes and sizes, AR and VR will be quite good and widespread, obesity will cease to be a problem thanks to altering human genes + Longevity Escape Velocity. Not the 2020 I remember.

In the 2020s he talks about the years 2030-2034. Longevity Escape Velocity, human augmentation, merging with computers, General Artificial Intelligence, UBI, gene editing, synthetic human organs, really good VR, massive improvements in wealth. I too would like that, but his actual track record is really bad to be honest. There is no getting around that.

Yes: computers, telecommunications, artificial intelligence, photovoltaics, batteries, electric transport and GDP tend to grow exponentially. But this doesn't mean he's correct. We can only really say that they tend to grow exponentially and that's it. We cannot truly predict the future. It's still very vague and uncertain.