Search found 1171 matches

by funkervogt
Fri Mar 22, 2024 3:03 am
Forum: Science & Technology of the Future
Topic: Will technology ever revert to incremental progress?
Replies: 2
Views: 663

Re: Will technology ever revert to incremental progress?

I think it will slow down at some point. We'll hit constraints due to limited resources, waste heat, and possibly limits on what is scientifically and technologically possible.
by funkervogt
Thu Mar 21, 2024 5:07 pm
Forum: Biology & Medicine
Topic: Possible breakthrough in organ xenotransplantation
Replies: 13
Views: 17172

Re: Possible breakthrough in organ xenotransplantation

A genetically engineered pig kidney has been implanted in a living person through a traditional procedure for the first time. Richard Slayman, 62, of Weymouth, Mass., who is suffering from end-stage kidney disease, received the organ Saturday in a four-hour procedure, Massachusetts General Hospital ...
by funkervogt
Thu Mar 21, 2024 3:33 pm
Forum: Society & Demographics
Topic: Society & Demographics News and Discussions
Replies: 177
Views: 142112

Re: Society & Demographics News and Discussions

weatheriscool wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2024 12:29 pm
This is a very deceptive graphic. Many of the areas with low life expectancies are predominantly black, Hispanic, or Native American, and vote overwhelmingly for the Democrats.
by funkervogt
Thu Mar 21, 2024 3:29 pm
Forum: Energy & the Environment
Topic: Electricity consumption is climbing again
Replies: 3
Views: 296

Re: Electricity consumption is climbing again

It's fascinating and a bit scary to see how long-running trends like this that shape our expectations about the future can stop or reverse so quickly. Additionally, in just the last four years, the assumption that there would never be another major war in Europe and that inflation had been forever ...
by funkervogt
Wed Mar 20, 2024 3:27 pm
Forum: Energy & the Environment
Topic: Electricity consumption is climbing again
Replies: 3
Views: 296

Electricity consumption is climbing again

From 2001 - 2021, energy consumption in the U.S. was flat overall, leading to predictions that energy consumption would start a long decline thanks to further efficiency improvements. This, in turn, was good news for environmentalists, since it made carbon emission reduction goals feasible. However,...
by funkervogt
Tue Mar 19, 2024 3:28 pm
Forum: Energy & the Environment
Topic: AGI's uncertain effects on human wages and employment
Replies: 0
Views: 217

AGI's uncertain effects on human wages and employment

This NBER paper, "Scenarios for the transition to AGI", was just published and contains very fascinating conclusions: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32255/w32255.pdf Using different sets of equally plausible assumptions about the capabilities of AGIs and constraints on e...
by funkervogt
Sun Mar 17, 2024 4:38 pm
Forum: Energy & the Environment
Topic: Energy & the Environment News and Discussions
Replies: 626
Views: 864255

Re: Energy & the Environment News and Discussions

Here's a failed energy prediction from 18 months ago. Of course, it’s not the rich countries of North America and northern Europe that will suffer the most through the energy crisis, whether this year or next. This energy crisis is global. Already poorer countries are facing blackouts, protests, and...
by funkervogt
Sat Mar 16, 2024 6:49 pm
Forum: Culture, Economics & Politics of the Future
Topic: 2050 predictions
Replies: 13
Views: 8069

Re: 2050 predictions

-I think some kind of American secession crisis before this date is entirely possible. I can't really see how a civil war would work, though I confess I'm no expert on the subject. As an American, I think the likeliest cause would be a disputed election result. Imagine a replay of the 2020 election...
by funkervogt
Sat Mar 16, 2024 6:36 pm
Forum: Culture, Economics & Politics of the Future
Topic: 2050 predictions
Replies: 13
Views: 8069

Re: 2050 predictions

How 2050 will be different from today: -Plausible (40%+ chance) that true AGI will exist. -Even if AGI has not yet been invented, narrow AIs will be vastly better than they are today and will perform countless niche tasks better and cheaper than humans. Many of them will be paired with robot bodies....
by funkervogt
Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:08 pm
Forum: Culture, Economics & Politics of the Future
Topic: 2050 predictions
Replies: 13
Views: 8069

Re: 2050 predictions

By 2050, non-Hispanic whites will become a minority in the U.S.
https://apnews.com/article/growth-popul ... ba5d7cdade