Future Timeline

AI in video game creation becomes tangibly feasible, with GPT-4.5 capable of creating SNES-quality games Holy shit. That would be phenomenal. Are you assuming simpler genres like sidescrollers, or games as complex as RPGs? There's obviously a difference between Contra III and Super Mario RPG, but h...

I don't really see any reason to suspect that Biden will die in 2024. It's a possibility, but just going by averages and the observable evidence it's not a probability. Going by actuarial tables, there's a mortality rate of 7.3 percent for 81 year old men, ie close to 93 percent of people who reach ...

Great post. Thanks, Yuli. GPT-4.5 unveiled and released to the masses. Though on the surface it doesn't seem to be a massive leap forward over GPT-4, likely having the same context window size of 128k tokens and possibly not even being fully multimodal but rather pseudo-multimodal like ChatGPT is, i...

We could all stand to watch this and think about it. https://youtu.be/iccd86vOz3w?t=3767 You could say this is optimists angry at reality or the truth. It seems most people in our communities dislike his conservative views regarding AI development. "Anyone who disagrees with me just can't hand...

Yuli Ban, the Turing Test will almost certainly be passed this decade, but I think your alarm over the rise of AGI is premature. I'm still not expecting it for at least 25 years, and possibly 50 years. Yuli didn't give any actual predictions for when he expects AGI... So, with that said, when do yo...

For the average person: Little will change in your daily life compared to 2021. You will not be transhuman; you will not marry an AGI; you will not ride in a flying car; you will not hook your brain up to a computer. However, it's possible that Apple's MR glasses will find their way into your hands...

So if anyone remembers, my dad was diagnosed with severe aortic stenosis the June of last year and received open heart surgery that July to get the valve replaced. It was an incredibly severe case that had about a 50/50 chance of killing him by the end of 2020, and if he'd never received surgery to ...

Missing old members right now. So many people I used to chat with here just aren’t around anymore. Even off the site with the few I added elsewhere. Hope you’re all well, looking forward to the upcoming 2045 thread. Here's one old member back, at least. I've been meaning to sign up for a while now,...