Future Timeline

AMOC collapse is stochastic but its chances increase as global warming progresses. My understanding is that there's around a 50% chance it happens by the end of the century and that's almost certain it will happen in the 22nd century if not. But also, it could happen tomorrow, probably more in the r...

Society of the spectacle, we’ve been living in an unreal cultural layer for sometime.

Timestamp matters on this one, should start about 46min in.

https://www.reddit.com/r/climate/comments/1jjskgd/comment/mjpvgbs/ kingtacticool is not correct. During the Permian era surface temperatures were on average 10C higher than preindustrial temperatures today. Antarctica will melt and become tropical, every biome will change dramatically, industrial h...

Russia's military and economy have been so strained by the Ukraine War that it won't be able to risk a potentially costly invasion of another country for more than three years. Russia's war economy is actually doing really well. GDP is rising, unemployment is low, and wages are rising even for the ...

Ocean builders is flawed but it will be a good test of sovereignty rights in international waters if some of these rich guys start posting up offshore in them. In the future we could genetically modify coral to create floating living islands the size of small countries that add habitat to the ecosys...

firestar464 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2025 12:18 am Why can't we maximize cognition and pleasure at the same time?

Had this thought too, we might tie them together so that working on abstract problems is readily enjoyable.

2038-2041 – Bitcoin is now consistently above $1 million https://www.futuretimeline.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=61667#p61667 (Tadasuke's estimate) Bitcoin won’t make it that far. This market cycle it’s expanding into institutional capital funds, next cycle there is no larger pool of capital to expand...

Dario's timeline of 2026 for "powerful AI" or AGI seems right on the ticket. By that time 03's reasoning cost would have dramatically dropped and it's not too crazy to believe that we'll near some 0-8 kind of reasoner if scaling test time compute moves as swiftly. 3 months is insane if th...

Yuli tends to get most bases covered in his big post, I don't have much to add these days either.

There's a new section on the Chinese Room Argument's webpage at the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. For AI believers it's probably the most optimistic entry yet, even though AI's still very clearly are not intelligent. It's section 4.6 Advances in Artificial Intelligence if anyone's curious. ht...

I may come back and edit more predictions into this post. AI will cause at least 1 major collective delusion event like we just saw with the New Jersey "UFO sightings" in 2025. People don't even need AI to delude themselves, it's only going to get more absurd, how long until people are pos...

Israel invading a 3rd country in a little over a years time, totally not a fascist country...

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http://geacron.com/home-en/ Terrestrial globes with political borders added. What web browser do you use for geocron? It hasn't worked for me on anything for a few years now. Chrome, many said the same. I'll send more links that may work later. That's so weird because I've tried chromium based brow...

Powers wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2024 9:36 pm

Powers wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2024 5:55 am https://www.runningreality.org/#01/01/6 ... 060&zoom=3

http://geacron.com/home-en/

Terrestrial globes with political borders added.

What web browser do you use for geocron? It hasn't worked for me on anything for a few years now.

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