Future Timeline

This NBER paper, "Scenarios for the transition to AGI", was just published and contains very fascinating conclusions: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32255/w32255.pdf Using different sets of equally plausible assumptions about the capabilities of AGIs and constraints on e...

Here's a failed energy prediction from 18 months ago. Of course, it’s not the rich countries of North America and northern Europe that will suffer the most through the energy crisis, whether this year or next. This energy crisis is global. Already poorer countries are facing blackouts, protests, and...

-I think some kind of American secession crisis before this date is entirely possible. I can't really see how a civil war would work, though I confess I'm no expert on the subject. As an American, I think the likeliest cause would be a disputed election result. Imagine a replay of the 2020 election...

How 2050 will be different from today: -Plausible (40%+ chance) that true AGI will exist. -Even if AGI has not yet been invented, narrow AIs will be vastly better than they are today and will perform countless niche tasks better and cheaper than humans. Many of them will be paired with robot bodies....

By 2050, non-Hispanic whites will become a minority in the U.S.
https://apnews.com/article/growth-popul ... ba5d7cdade

Assuming the singularity isn't happening, with or without AGI a lot of the world will start looking more like this including now developed nations. AGI alone will not stop the ecological crises, that's something we as people have to desire to do, especially if we misalign AGI's priorities and feed ...

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To elaborate on the idea, heat generated by the servers would first be shunted into a district heating network to heat nearby support buildings and worker housing. The remainder would be pumped back into the river. I envision mini towns built around data centers, their accompanying power plants, and...

"Exponential" got flung around so many times it nearly ruptured the spacetime continuum.


This is the most sluggish I've ever seen Ray. The 80 pills a day can only help so much at his age.

Interesting to look back on this essay by a Russian blogger from two years ago. The war hasn't ended yet, but out of the six possible outcomes he forecast, #2 seems the likeliest right now. He predicted there was a 90% chance it WOULDN'T end that way. 2. Bloody slog, “draw” (10%) — Russia’s military...