Future Timeline

https://twitter.com/DavidSHolz/status/1747370905331015797 "In 2022, 85.4 million motor vehicles were produced around the world" Source: https://www.acea.auto/figure/world-motor-vehicle-production/ If you conservatively estimate that two humanoid robots can be manufactured for the same cos...

This excellent essay on Astral Codex Ten explains why the success of GPT-5 is so important to the pace of AI development. Let me explain: There have been four GPT AI's so far: GPT-1, 2, 3, and 4. On average, each took 18 months to invent after the last. Each one cost roughly 30x as much money to cr...

I've heard they have the world's hottest women.

I think it will slow down at some point. We'll hit constraints due to limited resources, waste heat, and possibly limits on what is scientifically and technologically possible.

A genetically engineered pig kidney has been implanted in a living person through a traditional procedure for the first time. Richard Slayman, 62, of Weymouth, Mass., who is suffering from end-stage kidney disease, received the organ Saturday in a four-hour procedure, Massachusetts General Hospital ...

weatheriscool wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 12:29 pm

This is a very deceptive graphic. Many of the areas with low life expectancies are predominantly black, Hispanic, or Native American, and vote overwhelmingly for the Democrats.

It's fascinating and a bit scary to see how long-running trends like this that shape our expectations about the future can stop or reverse so quickly. Additionally, in just the last four years, the assumption that there would never be another major war in Europe and that inflation had been forever ...

From 2001 - 2021, energy consumption in the U.S. was flat overall, leading to predictions that energy consumption would start a long decline thanks to further efficiency improvements. This, in turn, was good news for environmentalists, since it made carbon emission reduction goals feasible. However,...

This NBER paper, "Scenarios for the transition to AGI", was just published and contains very fascinating conclusions: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32255/w32255.pdf Using different sets of equally plausible assumptions about the capabilities of AGIs and constraints on e...

Here's a failed energy prediction from 18 months ago. Of course, it’s not the rich countries of North America and northern Europe that will suffer the most through the energy crisis, whether this year or next. This energy crisis is global. Already poorer countries are facing blackouts, protests, and...