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Outlook

tfw there's no more open skies treaty https://youtu.be/ij06kLDKJrw
May 21 2020 09:32 PM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    AAAAAAAAAAAAaAAAAA
    May 21 2020 09:41 PM
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Raklian

So, Trump toured the Ford plant without heeding Ford officials' plea to wear a mask. Not cool at all.
May 21 2020 07:56 PM
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starspawn0

On Josh Mitteldorf's blog, down in the comments, one of the authors on the recent anti-aging breakthrough preprint paper writes who would get "priority" to the treatment: "In fact if this succeeds in humans Harold and I would probably like to hunt for the kind hearted volunteers who devote their life to service for very little as a priority list way before the billionaires. Next probably the genuine environmentalists devoted to protect the planet. Then the brilliant minds, th...
May 21 2020 02:15 PM
  • tomasth's Photo
    tomasth
    Am I too cynical to not believe billionaires won't get it first ?

    I don't see how politics would matter in who get it.

    It would make sense to give it to the oldest and sickest , first.

    IF , it works of course.
    May 21 2020 06:29 PM
  • Maximus's Photo
    Maximus
    Something about geniuses being granted immortality, while millions of poor kids who could never afford education are considered low priority seems somewhat dystopian.
    May 21 2020 06:38 PM
  • waitingforthe2030s's Photo
    waitingforthe2030s
    So, replacing the idea of only one group of people getting it with another group of people only getting it. Wonderful.
    May 21 2020 06:55 PM
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Revolutionary Moderate

I think it is quite likely that alien life exists in our solar system. Moons like Europa and Titan are probably the two most likely places where alien life could exist now.
May 21 2020 01:57 PM
  • Raklian's Photo
    Raklian
    Future exploratory missions will send rovers with drilling & submarine capabilities to check if microbial life can be found deep underwater or underground where heat is produced from gravitational tidal forces as well as radioactive decay.
    May 21 2020 03:28 PM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    I think it's possible there's a thriving ecosystem under the ice on Europa. Heck, there could be life in the caves on the Mars.
    May 21 2020 09:49 PM
  • Raklian's Photo
    Raklian
    /\ Right, the possibilities are there, and we just need to check them out.
    May 21 2020 10:12 PM
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wjfox

COVID-19 cases have now passed 5 million worldwide. 106,000 new cases were recorded over the past 24 hours, the highest single-day figure so far.
May 21 2020 09:34 AM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    There's all this pop rhetoric about an impending second wave in the fall/winter in my social groups. When the reality is that the first wave hasn't ended and at this rate won't be over by then.
    May 21 2020 11:30 AM
  • Raklian's Photo
    Raklian
    Maybe instead of multiple waves, there might be just one big hyperbolic one followed by a series of smaller waves.
    May 21 2020 01:55 PM
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Yuli Ban

Let's imagine for a moment that there really is an AGI operating somewhere right now. A very rudimentary one, perhaps a "zombie AGI" at most: a modified transformer built out of extraordinary amounts of neural & internet data. What would you expect it to be used for and do you think the organization that controls it would be keen on letting the world know?
May 21 2020 03:25 AM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    Too controversial and institutions are too closed off and ossified. So we wouldn't know about it no. If it's capable of being run quickly and connecting to the internet the AGI would have massive research uses including learning more about how to improve the AGI.
    May 21 2020 10:04 AM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    If its very rudimentary it probably would be allowed to be used for cases of national security or anything mission critical though. It's also possible some intelligent person is running the little fella very slowly on a home supercomputer for various personal reasons.
    May 21 2020 10:04 AM
  • Raklian's Photo
    Raklian
    ^ Yeah, like trying to find an ex because it turned out she really was the one.
    May 21 2020 01:58 PM
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Revolutionary Moderate

I think that once we have A.I. leaders, we will be able to fix the flaws in our governments. Also, the rise of A.I. leaders would be the end of democracy as A.I. leaders would be much better than any human leader, so no elections would be needed, and my dream of abolishing politicians would be realized.
May 21 2020 01:24 AM
  • starspawn0's Photo
    starspawn0
    We could use BCIs and AI to produce a form of direct Democracy that would otherwise be impossible: the way it would work is that we could scan people's brains, and find out what they like and dislike, and what would make them optimally happy. And, then, when designing policies, we would make them to do the most good for the most people. Unfortunately, a lot of politics is about privileging the already-privileged; so, people who *support* inequality, say, would rail against AI governanc...
    May 21 2020 01:37 AM
  • starspawn0's Photo
    starspawn0
    ... governance of that type.
    May 21 2020 01:38 AM
  • tomasth's Photo
    tomasth
    secession.

    With AI one can more easily build a new society.

    White supremacist ethno-state for example , would be both easier and more motivated to exist.
    May 21 2020 05:49 AM
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starspawn0

An incredible new result from OpenAI: to show off their use of Microsoft's computing power, they fine-tuned a large GPT-2-style language model on massive amounts of Github repository code, to produce a system than can write code, given a code comment or two, along with a function name!!! Skip to 28 minutes, 45 seconds into this video: https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1OyKAYWPRrWKb I would not have imagined it would work so well on programs that complicated, short though that t...
May 21 2020 01:15 AM
  • starspawn0's Photo
    starspawn0
    ... short though that they were. The main question I have is: just how much further can this be pushed? Can it be pushed to, for example, solve programming competition problems? If it can do *that*, then machines are starting to crack some of the hard problems around the question "can machines reason?"
    May 21 2020 01:20 AM
  • Yuli Ban's Photo
    Yuli Ban
    Absolutely interesting, though something I figured it ought to be able to accomplish. More proof, really, that NLG can conquer literally *any* language, including those that act as the basis for our digital life.
    May 21 2020 02:01 AM
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Outlook

This virus sucks, everything you want to do has a wall in front of it now.
May 20 2020 08:10 PM
  • Raklian's Photo
    Raklian
    But you have the Internet. It's not all wall, you know.
    May 20 2020 09:12 PM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    This as good a place as any. I feel like punching walls over all this right now. There's no good reason we all have to face this uneeded hardship, none. Quarantine measures and track and trace should have been expertly executed. Borders should have been closed in time.
    May 21 2020 11:39 AM
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starspawn0

The world is such a big place that there are going to be all kinds of people you never knew could be possible, that defy all your (implicit) stereotypes. Just when you think you know how a certain type of person *should* be, in our world of nearly 8 billion, you will find someone of that "type" (e.g. from China) that completely contradicts all your preconceived notions. At best, you can hope to be right "statistically"; but even that may change in a few decades.
May 20 2020 02:43 PM
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Revolutionary Moderate

I think it is problematic that we consider ourselves to be apart from nature. If we actually did, as we are part of nature, we would probably try to stop climate change as soon as possible, as its effects will only get worse and worse. However, I feel we will consider ourselves to be apart from nature even more in the future, as advancements in technology will make us let us fully hide from reality, which would probably quickly become the better place to be.
May 20 2020 01:14 PM
  • wjfox's Photo
    wjfox
    Public opinion is trending towards greater concern for the environment over time though. I think eventually in the far future we'll see a "deindustrialisation" movement with most production/extraction, etc. moved off-Earth and into space, on the Moon, Mars, etc.
    May 20 2020 01:50 PM
  • wjfox's Photo
    wjfox
    Earth has the potential to be rewilded and restored to an Eden-like state by, say, the 23rd century, which I believe is alluded to on our timeline.
    May 20 2020 01:51 PM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    The issue is that the biodiversity we have now will never be achieved again in our reasonable lifetimes. Future ecologists can bring back any species we already know of and preserve now of course, even if that preservation is only DNA. But all the animals and complexity that is unknown and lost will be a grand tragedy.
    May 20 2020 09:39 PM
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Erowind

Fate of the World which uses Oxford's Climate Dynamics Groups models to model global warming should be required curriculum in every school internationally. Kids should not be allowed to pass the course until they can beat the scenario in the game where Earth survives and global average HDI is above 0.7 by 2100. Extra credit for keeping less than a billion people from dying from preventable causes. This idea probably seems a tad outlandish. But abstract thinking isn't exclusive to adul...
May 20 2020 11:18 AM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    to adults and I think a well educated 16yo could understand the logistical and socio-political implications. The game is complex and sobering. It exposes unsavory governmental methods like military interventions, doesn't paint an optimistic scenario in the short term but ends with a world that is transitioning to fusion and putting colonies on other stellar bodies without biosphere collapse. This world is possible, but only if we get real with one another now and step up.
    May 20 2020 11:30 AM
  • Raklian's Photo
    Raklian
    That'll be nice if we can do that but we all know it's not going to happen. The deniers, which unfortunately make up a large proportion of the constituency, will scream this is a pretext for a socialist government takeover.
    May 20 2020 04:04 PM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    Absolutely, I'm dreaming and trying to think of a fun way to educate young people.
    May 20 2020 09:30 PM
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  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    I've been afraid to look the past few weeks. I know it's pace accelerated a bit since the beginning of march
    May 20 2020 11:21 AM
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Erowind

Joe Rogan's a sellout
May 19 2020 08:36 PM
  • Cyber_Rebel's Photo
    Cyber_Rebel
    It's also possible that Youtube's algorithm screwed him like it's been screwing a lot of "new" media. Only thing that makes me question that is JRE being a bit "bigger" than most, but it can happen.
    May 20 2020 08:22 AM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    Right but he's not exactly poor. If his operating costs are too high to support without youtube there are options besides fleeing to walled gardens under exclusivity deals. Like cutting his own salary (taboo I know,) cutting some labor, lowering equipment and location costs by lowering the fidelity of the podcast. That last option isn't as bad as one may think. The Joe Rogan Experience is a very old show and if he simply explained to his audience what happened openly most would probab...
    May 20 2020 08:50 AM
  • Erowind's Photo
    Erowind
    probably still listen especially considering the production value of the show 5, 10, 15 years ago wasn't bad. It would also require some creativity and likely liven his show up a bit if the production had to cope with not having a cutting edge set.
    May 20 2020 08:50 AM
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starspawn0

Jesus Christ was also misunderstood, Masayoshi Son tells investors: https://www.ft.com/content/d01fe70a-598f-4e6f-becc-2a002d6187b8
May 19 2020 04:44 PM
  • starspawn0's Photo
    starspawn0
    What is his formula for deciding what to invest in? If it's just whatever looks "unicorn-like", it's no wonder he's having such a hard time.
    May 19 2020 04:51 PM