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Arab Spring/Civil Wars/ISIS/Ukraine situation


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#1
philthesloth94

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I am outraged that there is nothing in the timeline about the Arab Spring, civil wars in Libya or Syria, or the current conflict with ISIS, or the situation between Russia and Ukraine. These are the most important conflicts in current history/events and I have seen NOTHING about them. The political, social, and economic upheavals they have caused are, I think, extremely important to current events and the near-future, THE most important since the World Wars. If this site takes itself seriously as a record of current events and predictions for the near-future, I believe it is essential to have these events on the Timeline.

 

As a side-note, I do really like this site as an amateur historian myself. This is just something that somewhat irks me, because I have been avidly following these events for the past 3+ years.



#2
Unity

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http://www.theverge....ct-a-revolution

Closest I could find

#3
philthesloth94

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That is interesting, but what I'm really looking for is for these events to at least be on the Timeline, since they've happened already. I'm not necessarily looking for predictions of their resolutions, just for the to be on the Timeline, since they really are so important.



#4
TheComrade

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...Arab Spring, civil wars in Libya or Syria, or the current conflict with ISIS, or the situation between Russia and Ukraine. These are the most important conflicts in current history... The political, social, and economic upheavals they have caused are, I think, extremely important to current events and the near-future, THE most important since the World Wars. 

 

I don't think so. This is a common mistake: contemporary events are always seems more historically important than they really are. There are a lot of much more important events happened since 1945. Here they are (without looking at Wikipedia): independence of India, communist victory in China, Korean war, decolonization of Africa, Sputnik and Gagarin, Moon landing, Caribbean crisis, Vietnam war, Afghan war (of USSR), fall of communism, genocide in Rwanda and a big war in/around Congo in 1990-s (actually the most bloody war since WW2)... compared to this, Arab spring and civil wars in Libya or Syria aren't that significant in world scale.

 

The only possible exception is the Ukrainian crisis. Not the stalemate situation as it is today, but the way on which it may be resolved & its possible consequences.



#5
philthesloth94

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The impact of wars aren't measured in their casualties, but in their sociological, political, and geopolitical consequences. The Arab Spring represents a major shift in the Middle East and the muslim world from dictatorships toward democracy while the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Libya represent a threat to the democratic and populist movements that deposed the totalitarian states that have dominated the region since the Cold War.

 

This shift was precipitated by the War on Terror in Iraq and Afghanistan (especially Iraq, since it deposed the powerful dictator Saddam Hussein and destabilized a powerful Iraqi state), as well as the rise of the Internet and mass media. The ramifications of the sociopolitical shift in the Middle East and North Africa could have an effect on world politics for years to come, considering how much oil is in the Middle East and how reliant on oil the West is. Just look at the multinational intervention against ISIS, and the proxy war between NATO(mostly the US) and Russia in Syria, the proxy standoff between Russia and the US over Iran.

 

And the crisis in the Ukraine is of utmost importance because, although Ukraine is not a member of NATO, it had intentions to join NATO and has been shifting towards the West for years, which is something that Russia (especially Putin) views as a threat. Ukraine is just a test, to see what NATO and the US will do, and Georgia in 2008 was another test before that. Next in line for Russia's revanchist geopolitical tests is obviously the Baltic States, as indicated by their cyber assault on Estonia back in 2007. The only difference between Ukraine and the Baltic States is that the Baltic States are part of NATO. Putin can and will test the integrity of NATO by threatening the Baltic States. He will slowly escalate until NATO makes a stand or World War III breaks out. This is why I want these events to be on the Timeline.



#6
TheComrade

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The Arab Spring represents a major shift in the Middle East and the muslim world from dictatorships toward democracy...

 

Major shift toward democracy? Really? As for the Arab spring and Lybian/Syrian civil wars, the significant (if not the main) part of protesters were/are the Islamists of different types, whose ideals have nothing to do with democracy or western way of life. Their victory will lead (already led in some parts) to social catastrophe. ISIS is just the most radical (and therefore most successful) of them, but nothing special or unusual.

 

And the crisis in the Ukraine is of utmost importance... Ukraine has been shifting towards the West fo for years, which is something that Russia (especially Putin) views as a threat...etc

 

I'm not sure if you noticed my "location" signature... well... Ukraine is NOT shifting towards the West for years, the main driving force of maidan were not democrats or liberals but nationalists. This nice picture (Ukrainian soldiers posing with their flags) is very well sums up the ideology of modern Ukrainian regime:

 

-axgZqd0JzM.jpg

 

...and since Ukraine is deeply divided society, the victory of such guys have logically led to civil war, which logically led to proxy intervention of Russia (perhaps even against Putin's desire) to protect our people in Eastern Ukraine. You're right, expansion of NATO is the biggest threat to our very existence since times of Hitler. 



#7
caltrek

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Ummm....why is it that other threads involving either Anonymous and/or ISIS are displaying data base error messages?


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls





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