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Our realistic predictions for 2030


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#1
Kemotx

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Assuming this forum will still exist in the next 15 years, the predictions written by us in this thread are to be checked on January 1st, 2030. Try to be realistic here, unless in some cases you have faith in exponential growth. No limit on how many predictions you write, but try not to be vague.

- Population of Mars is about 20, and humans landed here between 2025-2028.
- There are 1000-10000 humans in space.
- First tests of Mars Colonial Transporter occured after 2028.
- China, Russia, India and Europeans landed on Moon.
- Emdrive still used rarely, but results are promising. Almost never used in manned missions.
- Life extension adds more than one year per year, but is expensive.
- First decent medical nanobots, though still on non-miraculous level, perform basic surgeries.
- No mind uploading.
- A very crude FIVR, people who use it in public are called "Comassholes/Bluepills". It's not affordable for an average person, costing about 10,000 $. Altrough the graphics and sound are extremely lifelike, touch, smell and other senses are somewhat worse. It feels like experiencing life while moderately drunk. It's provided by small nanobots in brain and a device in pocket which maintains connection with them. Because it's not perfect, sometimes user can feel the real world while in simulation. This happens when some nanobots detach. They are made by Apple/Google or perhaps both. A very small number of simulations.
- On the other hand, the Augumented Reality nanobots are much cheaper, as they only provide audiovisuals. This boom could be compared to smartphones in 2007. About 1000$. You still need the device in your pocket to provide internet access.
- Websites look like Apple site, have a lot of moving parts and load instantly. On Youtube, most watched video is an MV with 5 Billion views. PSY stopped making videos in 2018, Justin Bieber retired in 2020 after some scandal. A viral video should have at least 1 Billion views, the fastest time to reach that was 23 hours in 2028.
- An average 6 year old child in 2030 wouldn't recognize a CRT, CD, VHS tape and rarely, a mouse.
- Games like Angry Birds are retro, except for newest in franchise. PS6, a 10th generation Microsoft and Nintendo consoles are made by 2027. Handhelds are extinct because of smartphones. It is difficult for me to say their specs, but they are all optical, maybe except for Nintendo. While internet is free on entire planet and in some space stations, some games still need powerful consoles, altrough this is only for largest games. Smaller ones use cloud. All games are photorealistic. Oculus Rift evolved into earpieces and contact lenses, with a treadmill. FIVR mentioned earlier is not expected to be mainstream until 2035.
- An average person has a PC with at least 1 Exaflop. Name given for something larger than Geopbyte, though it's still not achieved.
- By 2030, world meets all energy needs from solar. Maximum efficiency is 74%. Fusion is still in development, altrough ITER was a success.
- Global Warming had some effects, but there are large projects to reverse it. It's debatable if they do anything, but the harm humans do has almost stalled, except for deforestation.
- Mammoths are adult now, small children often don't know they were extinct.
- No world war 3, but ISIS invaded Israel. A very chaotic war lasted until 2023 and at least one nuclear weapon was used. Kurds have their own country. Middle East and Eastern Africa are the worst regions on Earth. Elsewhere, Desalination and Vertical Farms are booming. It's becoming clear that mankind won't die in 21st Century.
- North Korea collapsed because of free Internet, illegal smuggling and poverty. Un was executed or commited suicide. A barely averted war with South Korea.
- Ukraine split into two parts, eastern absorbed by Russia, Western poor. Growing conflicts with Muslims in Western Europe, Nationalists elected in Slavic countries.
- Average lifespan in 2030: 41 In Somalia, 110 In Japan. Potentialy infinite however.
- Marijuana legal in US, Canada and Europe.
- China is the richest country, India most populated. 7.9 billion humans in 2030.
- Hendo Hoverboards are compared to CD-i, being a complete failure, even with better batteries. At least one death was caused by them.
- Graphene used in computing and materials. Space Elevator is now feasible, but planned for 2045 at least.
- First Woman and then Gay President in US, but still no Atheist one. Gay one widely called Antichrist.
- Francis died in 2025. Next Pope is more liberal when it comes to LGBT issues, but heavily opposes Abortion and Life Extension. He views Singularity as playing with fire.
- Transhumanism is mainstream. Kurzweil is a celebrity by 2030 and is seen in adverts for Life Extension products.
- Two Star Trek series produced simultaneously and 4 movies, set in 25th century. But there is also an Avatar series made right after fourth movie, which fight with ST for viewers.
- Hollywood movies are recieved slighty better than in 2010s, but there are still too many sequels and remakes made.
- Cancer has lowered death rates, but only in developed countries.

That's it for now.

#2
Yuli Ban

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Don't forget these.

 

http://www.futuretim...tm#.VIYmtNLF_To

 

I'd also argue that solar has risen to provide at least 40% of the world's electricity, and telepathy technologies are beginning to be explored by the mainstream.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#3
Ru1138

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-The world economy has long ago collapsed and has yet to recover.

 

-People in poorer nations are either starving to death or trying to get in to better countries.

 

-As a result of the second point, many national borders have been hardened and any illegals are shot.

 

-Methane releases in the arctic have accelerated global warming.

 

-The wealthiest one tenth of one percent live in gated paradise like communities while everyone else is eking out an existence in slums.

 

-Food is scarce and anyone who isn't in the aforementioned wealthy communes suffer from malnutrition.

 

-India and Pakistan had started warring in the 2020s and haven't stopped since.


What difference does it make?


#4
Yuli Ban

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-The world economy has long ago collapsed and has yet to recover.

 

-People in poorer nations are either starving to death or trying to get in to better countries.

 

-As a result of the second point, many national borders have been hardened and any illegals are shot.

 

-Methane releases in the arctic have accelerated global warming.

 

-The wealthiest one tenth of one percent live in gated paradise like communities while everyone else is eking out an existence in slums.

 

-Food is scarce and anyone who isn't in the aforementioned wealthy communes suffer from malnutrition.

 

-India and Pakistan had a nuclear war in the 2020s.

In that case, everything above is exacerbated. Don't even bother with it; this one alone is enough to pretty much kill off a lot of the future.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#5
Ru1138

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In that case, everything above is exacerbated. Don't even bother with it; this one alone is enough to pretty much kill off a lot of the future.


I realized that a nuclear war might be unlikely anyway. Changed the last one on the list.


What difference does it make?


#6
hiraeth

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Nice. But I'm highly skeptical (though hopeful, of course) that we'll elect a gay president within the next fifteen years. 


I searched for God and found only myself. I searched for myself and found only God. Sufi Proverb

#7
Jakob

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That's an incredible list, Kemotx. I'll post some of my own (but not as many as you have!)

 

Space

*A colony of 20 on Mars, with a few dozen temporary visitors perhaps. The first colonists will have arrived in 2025.

*Manned missions to some asteroids.

*A permanent/semi-permanent base on the moon.

*10,000 known exoplanets, at least 100 earthlike ones

*Space tourism no longer costs millions of dollars, but it is still hideously expensive (tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars)

 

Computing

*Completely perfect machine translation, from any of the major languages to any other major language

*AI that could pass for human in conversation

*Zettaflop computers have been built

*Petaflop computers available to the public

*Video games with lifelike graphics, animation, physics, and AI

 

Medicine

*The first experiments in anti-aging for humans are taking place, but it may be several years before a commercial product is available

*Medical nanobots becoming available to the public

*Reliable automated diagnosis of diseases

*Cloning of such animals as the wooly mammoth, the dodo, the megatherium, etc.

 

Transport and infrastructure

*Self-driving cars more common than non-self-driving ones

*Hypersonic air travel for the rich

*The wealthy often have flying cars and jetpacks

*The six inhabited continents are only a few years away from being linked by road and rail

*1-kilometer-high buildings on nearly every continent

*Mile-high building under construction

*Vertical farming is being done, though it may not be widespread

 

Not an exhaustive list and it doesn't cover all sectors, but it's what I've got now.



#8
Jakob

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-The world economy has long ago collapsed and has yet to recover.

 

-People in poorer nations are either starving to death or trying to get in to better countries.

 

-As a result of the second point, many national borders have been hardened and any illegals are shot.

 

-Methane releases in the arctic have accelerated global warming.

 

-The wealthiest one tenth of one percent live in gated paradise like communities while everyone else is eking out an existence in slums.

 

-Food is scarce and anyone who isn't in the aforementioned wealthy communes suffer from malnutrition.

 

-India and Pakistan had started warring in the 2020s and haven't stopped since.

Pretty optimistic, huh?



#9
Yuli Ban

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I think I'd also add the first megaqubit computer coming online for the 2020s, so quantum computing by 2030 would have developed to the point computing did by 1970.

Nice. But I'm highly skeptical (though hopeful, of course) that we'll elect a black president within the next fifteen years

Someone said in 2007. I forget which forum board, but it just burned into my memory.

 

-The world economy has long ago collapsed and has yet to recover.

 

-People in poorer nations are either starving to death or trying to get in to better countries.

 

-As a result of the second point, many national borders have been hardened and any illegals are shot.

 

-Methane releases in the arctic have accelerated global warming.

 

-The wealthiest one tenth of one percent live in gated paradise like communities while everyone else is eking out an existence in slums.

 

-Food is scarce and anyone who isn't in the aforementioned wealthy communes suffer from malnutrition.

 

-India and Pakistan had started warring in the 2020s and haven't stopped since.

Too pessimistic though; I can't quite see the class divides being so stark in the face of open source and 3D printing. However, I can see the methane part coming true.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#10
Jakob

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Nice. But I'm highly skeptical (though hopeful, of course) that we'll elect a gay president within the next fifteen years. 

I personally doubt that it will happen anytime soon. While a candidate being gay is no reason to oppose them (in my mind at least), it's no reason to support them either. Since homosexuals make up 10 percent of the population, if everyone instantly became accepting of them, it would stand to reason that it would be about 60 years until one is elected.



#11
hiraeth

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Here's my random list (which is rather U.S. centric, sorry):

  • The U.S. has elected at least one female president
  • Gay marriage has been legalized in all 50 states, but just barely, with the last few ultra-conservative areas holding on to their bigotry for dear life
  • The internet of things is in full effect
  • Universal Basic Income has been seriously discussed by government officials due to positive results in other countries (most likely Nordic)
  • All of our mail (and pizza) will be delivered via drones
  • The vast majority of every new car sold will be completely driverless, and everyone else will be forced to drive only at certain low risk times or in low risk areas
  • All new vehicles, driverless or not, will be hybrids or plug-ins
  • 3D printing of food products will be ubiquitous
  • Super quick education programs will allow one to get a "degree" in a certain field within just a few months in order to switch professions as quickly as needed
  • Individualized medicines will replace one size fits all traditional pharmaceuticals
  • Recreational marijuana usage will be legalized in all 50 states
  • Cable TV will no longer exist, with all shows and programs streamed live on the internet, therefore, TVs will be useless without an internet connection (just like they're basically useless now without a cable subscription)
  • Search engines will be capable of finding literally anything in both the digital and physical world thanks to surveillance, drones, etc., thus, reducing crime or at the very least, making sure criminals are caught
  • The population is now teetering over 8 billion
  • Many expecting parents in developed nations will have had their kids' genome sequenced before birth
  • Personal AI assistants will be similar to Theodore's in the movie Her (not Samantha, the male voice before her), able to anticipate our needs/wants, schedule appointments, understand natural language, etc. to the point where they're nearly indistinguishable from a human (key word: nearly)
  • Anti aging tech is no longer a pipe dream or a scam, and the general public is taking it seriously for the first time ever

I have to admit, I didn't think about any of these for more than a couple of minutes... but I would love to come back in fifteen years and see how many I can check off. :)


I searched for God and found only myself. I searched for myself and found only God. Sufi Proverb

#12
jamesgera

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Scientists cloned Hitler and he starts ww3 with robo mussolini

#13
Jakob

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I have to admit, I didn't think about any of these for more than a couple of minutes... but I would love to come back in fifteen years and see how many I can check off. :)

Same with my list.



#14
Yuli Ban

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Here's my random list (which is rather U.S. centric, sorry):

  • The U.S. has elected at least one female president
  • Gay marriage has been legalized in all 50 states, but just barely, with the last few ultra-conservative areas holding on to their bigotry for dear life
  • The internet of things is in full effect
  • Universal Basic Income has been seriously discussed by government officials due to positive results in other countries (most likely Nordic)
  • All of our mail (and pizza) will be delivered via drones
  • The vast majority of every new car sold will be completely driverless, and everyone else will be forced to drive only at certain low risk times or in low risk areas
  • All new vehicles, driverless or not, will be hybrids or plug-ins
  • 3D printing of food products will be ubiquitous
  • Super quick education programs will allow one to get a "degree" in a certain field within just a few months in order to switch professions as quickly as needed
  • Individualized medicines will replace one size fits all traditional pharmaceuticals
  • Recreational marijuana usage will be legalized in all 50 states
  • Cable TV will no longer exist, with all shows and programs streamed live on the internet, therefore, TVs will be useless without an internet connection (just like they're basically useless now without a cable subscription)
  • Search engines will be capable of finding literally anything in both the digital and physical world thanks to surveillance, drones, etc., thus, reducing crime or at the very least, making sure criminals are caught
  • The population is now teetering over 8 billion
  • Many expecting parents in developed nations will have had their kids' genome sequenced before birth
  • Personal AI assistants will be similar to Theodore's in the movie Her (not Samantha, the male voice before her), able to anticipate our needs/wants, schedule appointments, understand natural language, etc. to the point where they're nearly indistinguishable from a human (key word: nearly)
  • Anti aging tech is no longer a pipe dream or a scam, and the general public is taking it seriously for the first time ever
I have to admit, I didn't think about any of these for more than a couple of minutes... but I would love to come back in fifteen years and see how many I can check off. :)

Still sounds conservative.

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#15
hiraeth

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Here's my random list (which is rather U.S. centric, sorry):

  • The U.S. has elected at least one female president
  • Gay marriage has been legalized in all 50 states, but just barely, with the last few ultra-conservative areas holding on to their bigotry for dear life
  • The internet of things is in full effect
  • Universal Basic Income has been seriously discussed by government officials due to positive results in other countries (most likely Nordic)
  • All of our mail (and pizza) will be delivered via drones
  • The vast majority of every new car sold will be completely driverless, and everyone else will be forced to drive only at certain low risk times or in low risk areas
  • All new vehicles, driverless or not, will be hybrids or plug-ins
  • 3D printing of food products will be ubiquitous
  • Super quick education programs will allow one to get a "degree" in a certain field within just a few months in order to switch professions as quickly as needed
  • Individualized medicines will replace one size fits all traditional pharmaceuticals
  • Recreational marijuana usage will be legalized in all 50 states
  • Cable TV will no longer exist, with all shows and programs streamed live on the internet, therefore, TVs will be useless without an internet connection (just like they're basically useless now without a cable subscription)
  • Search engines will be capable of finding literally anything in both the digital and physical world thanks to surveillance, drones, etc., thus, reducing crime or at the very least, making sure criminals are caught
  • The population is now teetering over 8 billion
  • Many expecting parents in developed nations will have had their kids' genome sequenced before birth
  • Personal AI assistants will be similar to Theodore's in the movie Her (not Samantha, the male voice before her), able to anticipate our needs/wants, schedule appointments, understand natural language, etc. to the point where they're nearly indistinguishable from a human (key word: nearly)
  • Anti aging tech is no longer a pipe dream or a scam, and the general public is taking it seriously for the first time ever
I have to admit, I didn't think about any of these for more than a couple of minutes... but I would love to come back in fifteen years and see how many I can check off. :)

Still sounds conservative.

 

I hope so, especially for the last one. I'll be 35/36 in 2030, so if that's the very beginning of real anti-aging tech, I may or may not be screwed. Ain't nobody got time for that.


I searched for God and found only myself. I searched for myself and found only God. Sufi Proverb

#16
Sciencerocks

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1. We will know of 150,000 extrasolar planets

2. A handful of earth like planets that show signs of being favorable for life have been found.

3. China is the largest economy on earth and has taken many of the roles America use to do.

4. China has a space station that can hold 30 people.

5. America has split along racial and cultural lines. About to break up into at least 3 nations.

6. The global temperature based on Noaa and Giss data is around .72c...Which pretty much means we warmed ever so slightly.

7. The first fusion reactors are coming on in what remains of the eu.

8. Solar now makes up 1.5tw of electricy.

9. Around 2030 China will be landing the first man since Appolo on the moon.

10. Future timeline will be 5-10 years too early for most of its science predictions after 2020.

11. America in its current form will never send a man to mars. Yes, I said it...Not going to happen.

12. A large regional war will break out between now in 2030. Or maybe a contuence of the middle east war with Israel, Iran and Eypt adding in.



#17
Sciencerocks

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Nice. But I'm highly skeptical (though hopeful, of course) that we'll elect a gay president within the next fifteen years. 

I personally doubt that it will happen anytime soon. While a candidate being gay is no reason to oppose them (in my mind at least), it's no reason to support them either. Since homosexuals make up 10 percent of the population, if everyone instantly became accepting of them, it would stand to reason that it would be about 60 years until one is elected.

 

How exactly would this be a reason to elect someone? I don't care if they have a penis or if they stick on up their butt. I just care about can they do a good job?



#18
Yuli Ban

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That mentality is how Obama got elected.

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#19
Sciencerocks

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Red is my thoughts

 

That's an incredible list, Kemotx. I'll post some of my own (but not as many as you have!)

 

Space

*A colony of 20 on Mars, with a few dozen temporary visitors perhaps. The first colonists will have arrived in 2025. Doubtful before 2028. After that then China or Eu or someone will land men on mars.

*Manned missions to some asteroids. Doubtful by the US

*A permanent/semi-permanent base on the moon. China will do so by 2035!

*10,000 known exoplanets, at least 100 earthlike ones I think 150,000 as we will find 60-100 thousand by 2025 alone!

*Space tourism no longer costs millions of dollars, but it is still hideously expensive (tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars) possibly, but it is mostly centered around China, india and maybe the EU. Not America...America is finished as a major power.

 

Computing

*Completely perfect machine translation, from any of the major languages to any other major language I think it is quite possible.

*AI that could pass for human in conversation Quite possible

*Zettaflop computers have been built not with current tech, but maybe with something new. ;)

*Petaflop computers available to the public  same as above.

*Video games with lifelike graphics, animation, physics, and AI   Very possible!

 

Medicine

*The first experiments in anti-aging for humans are taking place, but it may be several years before a commercial product is available I think this is also extremely likely, but science will become a thing of asia by this time. We Americans might have to wait longer.

*Medical nanobots becoming available to the public  Maybe...

*Reliable automated diagnosis of diseases  Quite possible

*Cloning of such animals as the wooly mammoth, the dodo, the megatherium, etc.  Very likely!

 

Transport and infrastructure

*Self-driving cars more common than non-self-driving ones  Unlikely...We here in America will probably have a few million on our streets by 2030, but asia; china, japan, south Korea, you may be closer to the truth.

*Hypersonic air travel for the rich This is a hard one as we already had something that did just this, but it never survived. I think this one is 50-50%.

*The wealthy often have flying cars and Jetpacks  Some will ;) Just like they have a license to fly small planes today.

*The six inhabited continents are only a few years away from being linked by road and rail Many will! Probably not all.

*1-kilometer-high buildings on nearly every continent  America likely not. Asia and the middle east don't be surprised if there's two kilometer high buildings!

*Mile-high building under construction  Many of these in asia!

*Vertical farming is being done, though it may not be widespread If war breaks out in America as we break apart...Not very likely here. Asia is where you will have to go for awesomeness!

 

Not an exhaustive list and it doesn't cover all sectors, but it's what I've got now.



#20
Jakob

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Nice. But I'm highly skeptical (though hopeful, of course) that we'll elect a gay president within the next fifteen years. 

I personally doubt that it will happen anytime soon. While a candidate being gay is no reason to oppose them (in my mind at least), it's no reason to support them either. Since homosexuals make up 10 percent of the population, if everyone instantly became accepting of them, it would stand to reason that it would be about 60 years until one is elected.

 

How exactly would this be a reason to elect someone? I don't care if they have a penis or if they stick on up their butt. I just care about can they do a good job?

 

If you read my post, you'll see that I'm saying the exact opposite. I fully agree with you.






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