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Our realistic predictions for 2030


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#21
hiraeth

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If Obama wasn't black he still would have won both elections, imo, but the idea of sticking it to the man and proving that our nation could change with the times was a driving force behind his win. It would be the same with a female candidate, and with a gay candidate. Of course we wouldn't elect an absolutely terrible person with ridiculous ideals JUST because they were gay. But if already a worthwhile candidate, they would undoubtedly gain some fans because of something like that. Because electing the same old straight religious white guy is getting old. In 2016, if Hillary or Elizabeth Warren run for president, I will vote for either of them over a similar male candidate simply because they are women and I want a woman in office. :)


I searched for God and found only myself. I searched for myself and found only God. Sufi Proverb

#22
Jakob

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2030 is pretty far away. Probably most of us here today won't even be active then. For all we know, this thread could become lost when the site goes down on December 31, 2029. Still, predicting is fun! I might make my own threads for some other dates.



#23
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Eat the scraps of my people.



#24
Sciencerocks

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If there is ever going to be a future of far out future of awesomeness it will be built on hard work and capitalism(or a form of it). Certainly, we can use robots to make life easier, but I don't see poverty going away. The cold hard truth is, some humans just work harder and are smarter than some others and will do better in life. I find it scary how after the 20th century we're still having this debate.

 

Why shouldn't someone that has worked hard and got higher grades be paid more?



#25
Jakob

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If there is ever going to be a future of far out future of awesomeness it will be built on hard work and capitalism(or a form of it). Certainly, we can use robots to make life easier, but I don't see poverty going away. The cold hard truth is, some humans just work harder and are smarter than some others and will do better in life. I find it scary how after the 20th century we're still having this debate.

 

Why shouldn't someone that has worked hard and got higher grades be paid more?

I could not agree more. These are my exact thoughts.



#26
hiraeth

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If there is ever going to be a future of far out future of awesomeness it will be built on hard work and capitalism(or a form of it). Certainly, we can use robots to make life easier, but I don't see poverty going away. The cold hard truth is, some humans just work harder and are smarter than some others and will do better in life. I find it scary how after the 20th century we're still having this debate.

 

Why shouldn't someone that has worked hard and got higher grades be paid more?

I could not agree more. These are my exact thoughts.

 

I don't think anyone is debating that, under our current system, someone who "works harder and got higher grades" should probably be paid more than someone who doesn't and didn't.

The problem is that minimum wage was invented so that every individual working full time could support a family. Meaning rent, food, transportation, bills. That's no longer the case and it hasn't been the case for a very long time. The minimum wage has to be raised for people to survive.


I searched for God and found only myself. I searched for myself and found only God. Sufi Proverb

#27
Jakob

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If there is ever going to be a future of far out future of awesomeness it will be built on hard work and capitalism(or a form of it). Certainly, we can use robots to make life easier, but I don't see poverty going away. The cold hard truth is, some humans just work harder and are smarter than some others and will do better in life. I find it scary how after the 20th century we're still having this debate.

 

Why shouldn't someone that has worked hard and got higher grades be paid more?

I could not agree more. These are my exact thoughts.

 

I don't think anyone is debating that, under our current system, someone who "works harder and got higher grades" should probably be paid more than someone who doesn't and didn't.

The problem is that minimum wage was invented so that every individual working full time could support a family. Meaning rent, food, transportation, bills. That's no longer the case and it hasn't been the case for a very long time. The minimum wage has to be raised for people to survive.

 

I don't think there should be a minimum wage at all. Salary should be the business of the employers and the employees. If an employee doesn't like the salary, they're free to try to get a raise or to look for another job.



#28
Ru1138

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Pretty optimistic, huh?


Hey, I'm just trying to be realistic. Look at how people are behaving anywhere and you'll see that this is a likely outcome.


What difference does it make?


#29
JCO

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If there is ever going to be a future of far out future of awesomeness it will be built on hard work and capitalism(or a form of it). Certainly, we can use robots to make life easier, but I don't see poverty going away. The cold hard truth is, some humans just work harder and are smarter than some others and will do better in life. I find it scary how after the 20th century we're still having this debate.

 

Why shouldn't someone that has worked hard and got higher grades be paid more?

I could not agree more. These are my exact thoughts.

 

I don't think anyone is debating that, under our current system, someone who "works harder and got higher grades" should probably be paid more than someone who doesn't and didn't.

The problem is that minimum wage was invented so that every individual working full time could support a family. Meaning rent, food, transportation, bills. That's no longer the case and it hasn't been the case for a very long time. The minimum wage has to be raised for people to survive.

 

 

The real fact is that those who work harder and get better grades do not get paid more. The fact is that in our society we are creating a new nobility, where the ones that get the most are the ones born to money. If we were paying the ones that work the hardest the most then soldiers, firemen, policy and teachers would earn 6 figure income and the ones that are employed as professional gamblers know as investors would be paid minimum wage.


Confirmed Agnostic - I know that I don't know for sure and I am almost certain no one else does either.


#30
JCO

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I will do my alternatives inline.

 

Assuming this forum will still exist in the next 15 years, the predictions written by us in this thread are to be checked on January 1st, 2030. Try to be realistic here, unless in some cases you have faith in exponential growth. No limit on how many predictions you write, but try not to be vague.

- Population of Mars is about 20, and humans landed here between 2025-2028. The first manned mission to Mars will have been made or at least the first unmanned portions of it will have been launched.
- There are 1000-10000 humans in space. Nearly 1,000 will have traveled to space. Only about 20 claim permanent residence. 50 to 100 have spent over 1 year off Earth.
- First tests of Mars Colonial Transporter occured after 2028. Permanent habitat has been established on the Moon. Plans on how to establish the same type of habitat on Mars are being made. No one at this time claims to be a permanent resident of the Moon.
- China, Russia, India and Europeans landed on Moon. At least 6 nations have launched manned missions. With the establishment of a permanent habitat on the Moon people from over a dozen countries have visited the moon.
- Emdrive still used rarely, but results are promising. Almost never used in manned missions.
- Life extension adds more than one year per year, but is expensive.
- First decent medical nanobots, though still on non-miraculous level, perform basic surgeries. Agree
- No mind uploading. Agree
- A very crude FIVR, people who use it in public are called "Comassholes/Bluepills". It's not affordable for an average person, costing about 10,000 $. Altrough the graphics and sound are extremely lifelike, touch, smell and other senses are somewhat worse. It feels like experiencing life while moderately drunk. It's provided by small nanobots in brain and a device in pocket which maintains connection with them. Because it's not perfect, sometimes user can feel the real world while in simulation. This happens when some nanobots detach. They are made by Apple/Google or perhaps both. A very small number of simulations.
- On the other hand, the Augumented Reality nanobots are much cheaper, as they only provide audiovisuals. This boom could be compared to smartphones in 2007. About 1000$. You still need the device in your pocket to provide internet access.
- Websites look like Apple site, have a lot of moving parts and load instantly. On Youtube, most watched video is an MV with 5 Billion views. PSY stopped making videos in 2018, Justin Bieber retired in 2020 after some scandal. A viral video should have at least 1 Billion views, the fastest time to reach that was 23 hours in 2028.
- An average 6 year old child in 2030 wouldn't recognize a CRT, CD, VHS tape and rarely, a mouse. Average 10 or 15 year old child for most.
- Games like Angry Birds are retro, except for newest in franchise. PS6, a 10th generation Microsoft and Nintendo consoles are made by 2027. Handhelds are extinct because of smartphones. It is difficult for me to say their specs, but they are all optical, maybe except for Nintendo. While internet is free on entire planet and in some space stations, some games still need powerful consoles, altrough this is only for largest games. Smaller ones use cloud. All games are photorealistic. Oculus Rift evolved into earpieces and contact lenses, with a treadmill. FIVR mentioned earlier is not expected to be mainstream until 2035.
- An average person has a PC with at least 1 Exaflop. Name given for something larger than Geopbyte, though it's still not achieved.
- By 2030, world meets all energy needs from solar. Maximum efficiency is 74%. Fusion is still in development, altrough ITER was a success. Truly renewable energy accounts for 10% of all the worlds energy consumption. In many developed countries the percentage of renewables is as high as 25%. The first commercial fusion power plant comes online in the last half decade.
- Global Warming had some effects, but there are large projects to reverse it. It's debatable if they do anything, but the harm humans do has almost stalled, except for deforestation. The rise and sea levels have by this point caused billions in damage. Venis, Miami, New Orleans and other cities all have portions of the cities made unlivable by the rising sea level. The antarctic ice shelf is moving more rapidly  and is expected that it may raise the sea level by as much as a half a meter in the next 2 decades.
- Mammoths are adult now, small children often don't know they were extinct.
- No world war 3, but ISIS invaded Israel. A very chaotic war lasted until 2023 and at least one nuclear weapon was used. Kurds have their own country. Middle East and Eastern Africa are the worst regions on Earth. Elsewhere, Desalination and Vertical Farms are booming. It's becoming clear that mankind won't die in 21st Century.
- North Korea collapsed because of free Internet, illegal smuggling and poverty. Un was executed or commited suicide. A barely averted war with South Korea.
- Ukraine split into two parts, eastern absorbed by Russia, Western poor. Growing conflicts with Muslims in Western Europe, Nationalists elected in Slavic countries.
- Average lifespan in 2030: 41 In Somalia, 110 In Japan. Potentialy infinite however.
- Marijuana legal in US, Canada and Europe.
- China is the richest country, India most populated. 7.9 billion humans in 2030. China is the largest economy in the world but still has a per capita income similar to Mexico.
- Hendo Hoverboards are compared to CD-i, being a complete failure, even with better batteries. At least one death was caused by them.
- Graphene used in computing and materials. Space Elevator is now feasible, but planned for 2045 at least. What is known as the largest construction project in the history of mankind has begun. The floating anchor platform has begun construction and is expected to be completed within 3 years. A year after that it is due to be linked to the first of the seed ribbon. Expansion of the ribbon continues over the next decade to eventually supporting an average daily lift of 10 tons.
- First Woman and then Gay President in US, but still no Atheist one. Gay one widely called Antichrist. Both are identified as the anti-christ. The same to keep forgetting that the world did not seem to end when the last 'anti-christ' was in office.
- Francis died in 2025. Next Pope is more liberal when it comes to LGBT issues, but heavily opposes Abortion and Life Extension. He views Singularity as playing with fire.
- Transhumanism is mainstream. Kurzweil is a celebrity by 2030 and is seen in adverts for Life Extension products.
- Two Star Trek series produced simultaneously and 4 movies, set in 25th century. But there is also an Avatar series made right after fourth movie, which fight with ST for viewers.
- Hollywood movies are recieved slighty better than in 2010s, but there are still too many sequels and remakes made.
- Cancer has lowered death rates, but only in developed countries.

That's it for now.

That is enough out of me for now.


Confirmed Agnostic - I know that I don't know for sure and I am almost certain no one else does either.


#31
Eyalin

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If there is ever going to be a future of far out future of awesomeness it will be built on hard work and capitalism(or a form of it). Certainly, we can use robots to make life easier, but I don't see poverty going away. The cold hard truth is, some humans just work harder and are smarter than some others and will do better in life. I find it scary how after the 20th century we're still having this debate.

 

Why shouldn't someone that has worked hard and got higher grades be paid more?

I could not agree more. These are my exact thoughts.

 

I don't think anyone is debating that, under our current system, someone who "works harder and got higher grades" should probably be paid more than someone who doesn't and didn't.

The problem is that minimum wage was invented so that every individual working full time could support a family. Meaning rent, food, transportation, bills. That's no longer the case and it hasn't been the case for a very long time. The minimum wage has to be raised for people to survive.

 

 

The real fact is that those who work harder and get better grades do not get paid more. The fact is that in our society we are creating a new nobility, where the ones that get the most are the ones born to money. If we were paying the ones that work the hardest the most then soldiers, firemen, policy and teachers would earn 6 figure income and the ones that are employed as professional gamblers know as investors would be paid minimum wage.

 

Nailed it. People seem to assume that those who are up there got there through hard work alone (no doubt there are cases of those who did so) and not through corruption, nepotism and cronyism. I'm okay with people being born into wealth (I mean, no one chooses to be born or where they'll be born) but let's give credit where it's due. In life if you don't have extraordinary talent, you're going to have to be well networked. That's what I've come to learn thus far.



#32
Eyalin

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If Obama wasn't black he still would have won both elections, imo, but the idea of sticking it to the man and proving that our nation could change with the times was a driving force behind his win. It would be the same with a female candidate, and with a gay candidate. Of course we wouldn't elect an absolutely terrible person with ridiculous ideals JUST because they were gay. But if already a worthwhile candidate, they would undoubtedly gain some fans because of something like that. Because electing the same old straight religious white guy is getting old. In 2016, if Hillary or Elizabeth Warren run for president, I will vote for either of them over a similar male candidate simply because they are women and I want a woman in office. :)

But candidates can't be the same or "similar" - one will always have to be better than the other. For the sake of argument, what if the better candidate is male even if the female one is quite capable? If I am vying for a position in a company against candidates of different races, I would never want to be picked because of my race. I think it's counterintuitive and possibly degrading. I would personally seek good character, potential and respectability in others, the rest would either be very secondary or irrelevant.



#33
JCO

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If Obama wasn't black he still would have won both elections, imo, but the idea of sticking it to the man and proving that our nation could change with the times was a driving force behind his win. It would be the same with a female candidate, and with a gay candidate. Of course we wouldn't elect an absolutely terrible person with ridiculous ideals JUST because they were gay. But if already a worthwhile candidate, they would undoubtedly gain some fans because of something like that. Because electing the same old straight religious white guy is getting old. In 2016, if Hillary or Elizabeth Warren run for president, I will vote for either of them over a similar male candidate simply because they are women and I want a woman in office. :)

But candidates can't be the same or "similar" - one will always have to be better than the other. For the sake of argument, what if the better candidate is male even if the female one is quite capable? If I am vying for a position in a company against candidates of different races, I would never want to be picked because of my race. I think it's counterintuitive and possibly degrading. I would personally seek good character, potential and respectability in others, the rest would either be very secondary or irrelevant.

 

 

In the workplace if you are in charge of hiring you need to know what would be the best qualification for the job or you should not hold the position. As a voter I cannot say for sure what would be the best qualification for the job of president. To some extent I agree with hiraeth that electing someone because they are different than the rest at this point may be a good idea.


Confirmed Agnostic - I know that I don't know for sure and I am almost certain no one else does either.


#34
jamesgera

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China economy falls as the country goes into civil war between tge communists and those wanting to be more independent.

Europe becomes stricter on immigration only letting people with jobs move permantly into otger countries.

Crime has fallen as weed becomes legal and smart cameras are built around the city than can track people and help the police catch them.

America has since seen a fall of corruption when a law has been passed via wolf pac that makes it illegal for corporations to pay off politians.

Police in America have since started wearing cameras that record their every move as a way to prevent them from abusing their power following the deaths and beatings of several black people in late 2014.

Several countries and a few states in the usa have replaced the police gun with a advanced tazer or some other gun that is aimed at
knocking down criminals not killing them.

smaller drones are invented that can fly into countries and at first glance could appear as birds these will be used as a way to assassinate targets winning and preventing major wars.

Nasa joins up with esa to form a international space agency designed for finding life.

#35
Rainbow Frog

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Things I would like to see in the next 15 years (that I also don't think are far fetched)

  1. A European constitution
  2. The beginnings of democratization in China
  3. Big events in Russia (whether Balkanization or significant reformation)
  4. More international co-operation and binding legal agreements on climate change
  5. America should become more Secular and adopt better models in many fields
  6. Everyone should adopt the Nordic model (and begin to implement it slowly)
  7. UK decides if it wants to leave or stay in the EU
  8. Primitive VR and advance AR replaces games consoles, phones, eye ware
  9. Computing power becomes ubiquitous like electricity (i.e computer chips in every wall)
  10. File-sharing becomes legal in some European countries
  11. Marijuana becomes legal in most European countries and US states
  12. US elects a female president
  13. Middle east is still shitty but on the mend after ISIS
  14. The world is slowly getting it's shit together as conflict zones worldwide become fewer and fewer
  15. Hopefully war ends at the end of this century 

People are illogical, unreasonable, and self-centered. Love them anyway. 
If you do good, people will accuse you of selfish ulterior motives. Do good anyway. 
If you are successful, you will win false friends and true enemies. Succeed anyway. 
The good you do today will be forgotten tomorrow. Do good anyway. 
Honesty and frankness make you vulnerable. Be honest and frank anyway. 
The biggest men and women with the biggest ideas can be shot down by the smallest men and women with the smallest minds. Think big anyway. 
People favor underdogs but follow only top dogs. Fight for a few underdogs anyway. 
What you spend years building may be destroyed overnight. Build anyway. 
People really need help but may attack you if you do help them. Help people anyway. 
Give the world the best you have and you'll get kicked in the teeth. Give the world the best you have anyway.

#36
TheComrade

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So this thread is something like "time capsule"? OK, here is my prediction (mostly about politics, sorry)

 

World by 2030

 

- In general, world has become much more turbulent and unstable place, compared to 1990-2015. Post-cold-war ideas about "end of history", triumph of liberal democracy and "eternal peace" has been long forgotten. About 10-20 new countries appeared on the world map, but most of them remains unrecognized. 

 

- EU collapsed under the weight of economic and social troubles. Some poor countries of "Old Europe" were even downgraded from first world to second world countries. Right-wing and nationalist parties dominate in the political landscape. A few regions of Europe has become independent states. In general, Europe has become relatively poorer and less stable than it was in 1990-2015. 

 

- USA still remains the strongest military pover, though China (the world largest economy) is quickly catching them, causing the fear and anxiety of American elite (something like US attitude towards USSR in 1950-1960s). By 2030, USA most likely went through default caused by their enormous debts, combined with serie of ethnic and class conflicts. despite that, their social and political system remained almost unchanged.

 

- China has eventually become the second superpover. By 2030, their official ideology got rid of the last remnants of communism. By now, this the traditional eastern nationalism and state paternalism, which provide the "reasonable benevolent dictatorship" in exchange for people's loyality. This new (actually old) political philosophy has been spread to some neighboring countries, including Russia.

 

- Russia has failed to modernize itself. By 2030, it is still in top-10 of world economies, but nothing more. Politically, Russia is a closest ally of China, economically - its satellite. By this time Russia lost North Caucasus and Kaliningrad region but got Eastern Ukraine. Western part of Ukraine remains one of poorest and most depressive places of Europe.

 

- In general, scientific and technological progress runs much slower than it was expected in 2015. for example, most of projects of space exploration were cancelled as "too expencive and unprofitable".

 

Something like that...



#37
Ru1138

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So this thread is something like "time capsule"? OK, here is my prediction (mostly about politics, sorry)

 

World by 2030

 

- In general, world has become much more turbulent and unstable place, compared to 1990-2015. Post-cold-war ideas about "end of history", triumph of liberal democracy and "eternal peace" has been long forgotten. About 10-20 new countries appeared on the world map, but most of them remains unrecognized. 

 

- EU collapsed under the weight of economic and social troubles. Some poor countries of "Old Europe" were even downgraded from first world to second world countries. Right-wing and nationalist parties dominate in the political landscape. A few regions of Europe has become independent states. In general, Europe has become relatively poorer and less stable than it was in 1990-2015. 

 

- USA still remains the strongest military pover, though China (the world largest economy) is quickly catching them, causing the fear and anxiety of American elite (something like US attitude towards USSR in 1950-1960s). By 2030, USA most likely went through default caused by their enormous debts, combined with serie of ethnic and class conflicts. despite that, their social and political system remained almost unchanged.

 

- China has eventually become the second superpover. By 2030, their official ideology got rid of the last remnants of communism. By now, this the traditional eastern nationalism and state paternalism, which provide the "reasonable benevolent dictatorship" in exchange for people's loyality. This new (actually old) political philosophy has been spread to some neighboring countries, including Russia.

 

- Russia has failed to modernize itself. By 2030, it is still in top-10 of world economies, but nothing more. Politically, Russia is a closest ally of China, economically - its satellite. By this time Russia lost North Caucasus and Kaliningrad region but got Eastern Ukraine. Western part of Ukraine remains one of poorest and most depressive places of Europe.

 

- In general, scientific and technological progress runs much slower than it was expected in 2015. for example, most of projects of space exploration were cancelled as "too expencive and unprofitable".

 

Something like that...

 

Good to see another pessimist here. Cheers.


What difference does it make?


#38
jamesgera

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Things I would like to see in the next 15 years (that I also don't think are far fetched)

  • A European constitution
  • The beginnings of democratization in China
  • Big events in Russia (whether Balkanization or significant reformation)
  • More international co-operation and binding legal agreements on climate change
  • America should become more Secular and adopt better models in many fields
  • Everyone should adopt the Nordic model (and begin to implement it slowly)
  • UK decides if it wants to leave or stay in the EU
  • Primitive VR and advance AR replaces games consoles, phones, eye ware
  • Computing power becomes ubiquitous like electricity (i.e computer chips in every wall)
  • File-sharing becomes legal in some European countries
  • Marijuana becomes legal in most European countries and US states
  • US elects a female president
  • Middle east is still shitty but on the mend after ISIS
  • The world is slowly getting it's shit together as conflict zones worldwide become fewer and fewer
  • Hopefully war ends at the end of this century 

I would not say ar or vr would replace consoles
People would still want to sit down with a controller just to relax

#39
Rainbow Frog

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So this thread is something like "time capsule"? OK, here is my prediction (mostly about politics, sorry)

 

World by 2030

 

 

- EU collapsed under the weight of economic and social troubles. Some poor countries of "Old Europe" were even downgraded from first world to second world countries. Right-wing and nationalist parties dominate in the political landscape. A few regions of Europe has become independent states. In general, Europe has become relatively poorer and less stable than it was in 1990-2015. 

 

 

 

Why do many Russians think Europe is on the verge of a collapse?

 

What is wrong with the EU? Is it a threat to you, I'm pretty sure nobody wants to fight let alone Europeans.


People are illogical, unreasonable, and self-centered. Love them anyway. 
If you do good, people will accuse you of selfish ulterior motives. Do good anyway. 
If you are successful, you will win false friends and true enemies. Succeed anyway. 
The good you do today will be forgotten tomorrow. Do good anyway. 
Honesty and frankness make you vulnerable. Be honest and frank anyway. 
The biggest men and women with the biggest ideas can be shot down by the smallest men and women with the smallest minds. Think big anyway. 
People favor underdogs but follow only top dogs. Fight for a few underdogs anyway. 
What you spend years building may be destroyed overnight. Build anyway. 
People really need help but may attack you if you do help them. Help people anyway. 
Give the world the best you have and you'll get kicked in the teeth. Give the world the best you have anyway.

#40
jamesgera

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So this thread is something like "time capsule"? OK, here is my prediction (mostly about politics, sorry)
 

World by 2030

 
 
- EU collapsed under the weight of economic and social troubles. Some poor countries of "Old Europe" were even downgraded from first world to second world countries. Right-wing and nationalist parties dominate in the political landscape. A few regions of Europe has become independent states. In general, Europe has become relatively poorer and less stable than it was in 1990-2015.
 
Why do many Russians think Europe is on the verge of a collapse?
 
What is wrong with the EU? Is it a threat to you, I'm pretty sure nobody wants to fight let alone Europeans.

We Europeans are sick of fighting we been having wars for hundreds of years plus 2 world wars under the last hundred




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