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Our realistic predictions for 2030


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#61
Sciencerocks

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If there is ever going to be a future of far out future of awesomeness it will be built on hard work and capitalism(or a form of it). Certainly, we can use robots to make life easier, but I don't see poverty going away. The cold hard truth is, some humans just work harder and are smarter than some others and will do better in life. I find it scary how after the 20th century we're still having this debate.
 
Why shouldn't someone that has worked hard and got higher grades be paid more?

I could not agree more. These are my exact thoughts.
I don't think anyone is debating that, under our current system, someone who "works harder and got higher grades" should probably be paid more than someone who doesn't and didn't.
The problem is that minimum wage was invented so that every individual working full time could support a family. Meaning rent, food, transportation, bills. That's no longer the case and it hasn't been the case for a very long time. The minimum wage has to be raised for people to survive.
I don't think there should be a minimum wage at all. Salary should be the business of the employers and the employees. If an employee doesn't like the salary, they're free to try to get a raise or to look for another job.
 
I really think that our obsession with capitalism will probably be our doom. We are so stuck to the idea that capitalism is the only thing that works that makes me slightly pessimistic about the future.


It is not the only things that works it is just the best at the moment.

We could live in a world like star trek where everything is free and people work for the benefit of hamanity but we dont have the resources to do that

 

 

You really have to define the "moment". Was capitalism the best in 1973? What about 2008? What about 5-10 years from now?

 

Capitalism is just plain faith, and you and I have faith in capitalism just because the other people around us have it as well. Our world isn't even capitalist at its core:

 

webiceberg.jpg

 

It is true that finding something that is better is hard, but there can be alternatives even today. It is true, however, that there won't be a revolution in economic systems, as capitalism will be replaced gradually by something better.

 

My main worries are things like these: http://articles.lati...on/oe-shermer22

 

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"Type 0.9: Democratic capitalism, the blending of liberal democracy and free markets, now spreading across the globe through democratic movements in developing nations and broad trading blocs such as the European Union.

Type 1.0: Globalism that includes worldwide wireless Internet access, with all knowledge digitized and available to everyone. A completely global economy with free markets in which anyone can trade with anyone else without interference from states or governments. A planet where all states are democracies in which everyone has the franchise.

The forces at work that could prevent us from making the great leap forward to a Type 1 civilization are primarily political and economic. The resistance by nondemocratic states to turning power over to the people is considerable, especially in theocracies whose leaders would prefer we all revert to Type 0.4 chiefdoms. The opposition toward a global economy is substantial, even in the industrialized West, where economic tribalism still dominates the thinking of most politicians, intellectuals and citizens."

 

Just look how plainly faith in capitalism poisons thought and prevents someone thinking outside of the box. It really is sad to see this close-minded line of thinking, the faith in a particular economic system whether it is communism, socialism or capitalism or whatever.

 

 

We could build robots to do all the grunt work like farming, building and stocking. This would allow us to sit around thinking all day.



#62
michael92

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We could build robots to do all the grunt work like farming, building and stocking. This would allow us to sit around thinking all day.

 
That will indeed probably be the case, but then how do you give access to these goods? You will still need some reward system. I would guess that if someone unemployed makes x$ the employed make around 3x$, but x$ should be enough for a decent life and access to most of the goods.


#63
Jakob

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We could build robots to do all the grunt work like farming, building and stocking. This would allow us to sit around thinking all day.

 
That will indeed probably be the case, but then how do you give access to these goods? You will still need some reward system. I would guess that if someone unemployed makes x$ the employed make around 3x$, but x$ should be enough for a decent life and access to most of the goods.

 

How about someone who doesn't do anything makes $0x? Someone who works a little bit makes $x. Someone with brilliant ideas makes $3x. Anyway, robots are good for grunt work and humans are good for thinking, so Matthew's idea sounds like a good one.



#64
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As with the 2020 prediction, I'm just gonna predict US and its states politics. Technology and other things are too volatile and very hard to predict. Breakthroughs can happen and something may come out faster or some unforeseen difficulty might happen that will delay things.

 

- I think we'll have 51 states (Puerto Rico) by 2020. By 2030, I think Guam + Mariana, Virgin Islands, or American Samoa might start pushing to resolve their status and become a 52nd state.

- 35/50 states have legalized gay marriage today. I believe we'll be 51/51 by 2030.

- 23/50 states have legalized medical weed. It'll be on the ballot in 2016, 2018, 2020 and onwards in various states. I believe we'll be at 51/51 states by 2030 for medical weed.

- 4/50 states have legalized recreational weed today. It'll be on the ballot in 2016, 2018, 2020 and onwards in various states. I believe we'll be at 51/51 states by 2030 for recreational weed.

- 4/50 states have legalized automated driving today. I believe we'll be at 40+/51 states by 2030 for recreational weed, maybe 51.

- 3-10/50 states will have legalized (and taxed and regulated) prostitution.

- 30+ states have legalized commercial casinos.



#65
Kynareth

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MissKaioshin wrote:
 
By 2030:
 
Things I'm relatively sure of:
-Gays, lesbians, and bisexuals will be fully accepted in all of the first world, including the U.S. 
-Transgendered and genderqueer people will also be much more accepted
-We will have a much more automated economy; lots of people will be out of work
-The U.S. will have had a female president
 
Things I hope for:
-The first anti-aging technologies will have been demonstrated
-Huge advances in biotechnology and regenerative medicine: replacement organs and body parts made from one's own DNA are now real possibilities
-The above advances will trickle down into elective cosmetic surgeries, allowing people to not only look and function like a younger version of themselves, but also to change much of their actual appearance. Gender dysphoric people (like me) will be able to look much more like our chosen gender identity.
 
gray means maybe


#66
Ru1138

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Ignore this post.


What difference does it make?


#67
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-The world economy has long ago collapsed and has yet to recover.

 

-People in poorer nations are either starving to death or trying to get in to better countries.

 

-As a result of the second point, many national borders have been hardened and any illegals are shot.

 

-Methane releases in the arctic have accelerated global warming.

 

-The wealthiest one tenth of one percent live in gated paradise like communities while everyone else is eking out an existence in slums.

 

-Food is scarce and anyone who isn't in the aforementioned wealthy communes suffer from malnutrition.

 

-India and Pakistan had started warring in the 2020s and haven't stopped since.

 

I would like to add this to my list:

 

-Racial tensions are high in many developed countries (many people blame immigrants for the collapse of their nation's economies). Antagonisms between races are more like gang warfare than traditional warfare.

 

 

One more.

 

-The wealthy prevent a proletariat uprising by using psychologically honed propaganda against the poor. This oftentimes demonizes foreigners which exacerbates the racial and ethnic war the poors undergo.


What difference does it make?





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