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The Fermi Paradox

Fermi Paradox Aliens Extraterrestrials Life

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#101
Rusakov

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Fermi's Paradox got worse for us...

 

http://www.futuretim...ought/?p=166739



#102
Rusakov

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I wonder if there is any scientific theory that would explain why we're alone, if we are. If we're the only life in the universe, how did that happen? Why did it happen? Is there something so unique about our position in the cosmos that exists absolutely no where else in the entire universe?

 
Try this book: http://www.amazon.co...&s=books&sr=1-1
 
In the end the author applies something called a Sieve of Eratosthenes, taking into account multiple solutions. Close enough?



#103
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http://www.technolog...-civilizations/

Interesting revisions to the parameters in the drake equation

#104
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Good news! We might have passed the Great Filter!
 
The aliens are silent because they're dead
 
 

(Nanowerk News) Life on other planets would likely be brief and become extinct very quickly, say astrobiologists from The Australian National University (ANU).
 
In research aiming to understand how life might develop, the scientists realised new life would commonly die out due to runaway heating or cooling on their fledgling planets.

 



#105
caltrek

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Well, yes there are probable "great filters" at work.

 

Our position is unique in the universe. We are also at the center of that universe.  So, for that matter, is every other point in the universe.  Alll those points are receding away from each other.  So while we are taking billions of years to evolve, we are also moving billions of light years away (or at least millions of light years) from other intelligent species.   So we are not able to communicate, even by radio, because we are so friggin far away from them.

 

At least that is my two cents, for what little it may be worth.


The principles of justice define an appropriate path between dogmatism and intolerance on the one side, and a reductionism which regards religion and morality as mere preferences on the other.   - John Rawls


#106
StanleyAlexander

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I've always been partial to the idea of transcension, where a civilization reaches a certain threshold of advancement and becomes able to transcend current levels of understanding, or even space and/or time itself.

 

For example, maybe there is some wrinkle of femtotechnology that enables the creation of entirely new universes of space, or the branching off into other dimensions of time.

 

Or maybe a technological singularity inevitably results in a continued shortening of a civilization's time scale literally to infinity, which could look to the rest of the universe like a stoppage of time (think relative observers when one approaches a black hole) or some unexplainable disappearance.

 

Simpler yet, there could be some unavoidable development which leads a civilization to advance in some way currently undetectable to us, like utilizing gravity waves instead of electromagnetic waves for communication because it turns out to be wildly more efficient.

 

In short, as has been said, we haven't found anyone else because we don't yet know what to look for.  And when we find out, it's likely to be something incomprehensible to us today.


Humanity's destiny is infinity

#107
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Exoplanet Census Suggests Earth Is Special after All

 

 

More than 400 years ago Renaissance scientist Nicolaus Copernicus reduced us to near nothingness by showing that our planet is not the center of the solar system. With every subsequent scientific revolution, most other privileged positions in the universe humans might have held dear have been further degraded, revealing the cold truth that our species is the smallest of specks on a speck of a planet, cosmologically speaking. A new calculation of exoplanets suggests that Earth is just one out of a likely 700 million trillion terrestrial planets in the entire observable universe. But the average age of these planets—well above Earth’s age—and their typical locations—in galaxies vastly unlike the Milky Way—just might turn the Copernican principle on its head.

 



#108
Yuli Ban

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Further Proof That Aliens Are Were Definitely Out There

Scientists estimate at least 100 BILLION intelligent civilizations have evolved prior to us

IN BRIEF
Two scientists from the University of Rochester and the University of Washington have developed an “archaeological form” to the famous Drake equation, which will allow us to determine how many technological civilizations have formed in the history of the universe. And it seems there may be a number of them.

THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE
Are we alone? It is, perhaps, one of the most significant questions human beings have ever asked—right up there with “Why are we here?” and “How did it all begin?”
Indeed, as soon as we understood that the universe was not circumscribed by the Earth’s horizons, but extended outward for unfathomable distances and contained within its compass innumerable worlds like our own, we began to wonder whether we are unique and alone, or if there might not be others out there—like us, and yet very unlike us.
The famous “Drake equation,” formulated by astronomer Frank Drake in 1961, sought to establish a mathematical, probabilistic framework to understand the question of whether or not humanity ia really alone in the cosmos; it used a number of ingenious terms to estimate the number of technological civilizations in our galaxy.
The problem with Drake’s formulation was that three of those terms, in particular, were just too uncertain to permit a reliable estimate.
According to Adam Frank, astronomy and physics professor at the University of Rochester, and a coauthor of the paper (appearing in the journal Astrobiology): “We’ve known for a long time approximately how many stars exist. We didn’t know how many of those stars had planets that could potentially harbor life, how often life might evolve and lead to intelligent beings, and how long any civilizations might last before becoming extinct.”
SETTING SOME LIMITS
Recent exoplanet research, particularly with the Kepler Space Telescope, has constrained the first of these terms, determining that about one-fifth of stars possess planets within their habitable zones.
That leaves the second and third terms—the probability for advanced life to evolve, and the longevity of technological civilizations—but Frank and his colleague, Woodruff Sullivan of the University of Washington, simply altered the math a little. They eliminated the second term by calculating the odds against humankind being the only advanced civilization in the universe; and they dismissed the third by formulating a “cosmic archaeological question”—how often does intelligent life evolve throughout cosmic history?
Their new equation, which they call the “Archaeological form” of the Drake equation, looks like this—Nast x fbt.
Nast, the number of habitable planets, is defined as Nast = N* x fp x np, where N* is the total number of stars, fp is the fraction that form planets, and np is the average of those planets circling in the habitable zones of their parent stars. The second term of the Archaeological form equation, fbt, is defined as the likelihood of an advanced technological civilization arising on one of these habitable planets.
The results suggest that humankind is only likely to be unique if the odds of another civilization developing on a habitable world are less than one in 1022.
That’s a very—some might say improbably—small number.
“To me, this implies that other intelligent, technology producing species very likely have evolved before us,” says Frank. “Think of it this way: before our result you’d be considered a pessimist if you imagined the probability of evolving a civilization on a habitable planet were, say, one in a trillion. But even that guess, one chance in a trillion, implies that what has happened here on Earth with humanity has in fact happened about 10 billion other times over cosmic history!”


Now let's consider what we were saying in the other thread. For whatever reason, humans are the Chosen Ones. We should have gone extinct, either through environmental factors or through our own collective sadomasochism. But for whatever reason, we haven't. Every single instance where we should have died off, where we should have pushed the button, where we should have fuck't up, didn't come to pass. We are likely within a generation of the Singularity, which can be described as "extinction-proofing our species" (for as long as AI doesn't kill us). That leaves us with, at most, 30 years to destroy ourselves or be destroyed. Even on a civilization timescale, that's a ridiculously, absurdly short amount of time. On a cosmic timescale, that's virtually Planck time. 

 

So let's say civilization began in 10,000 BC (which, in light of some archaeological finds, might still be a few thousand years too late), and that's usually how long it takes for a sapient species to reach the Singularity. 

 

Well then.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#109
Maximus

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Please don't screw up, Please don't screw up, Please don't screw up. We are on the threshold of conquering the universe, we just need to control our barbaric tendencies for a a few more decades (or hope nature doesn't do us in).



#110
Yuli Ban

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Why-Havent-We-Found-Aliens-_v2.jpg


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#111
Yuli Ban

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#112
zEVerzan

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Did anyone see the theory that the discovery of life elsewhere in our solar system basically means that the Great Filter is probably ahead of us yet?


I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
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#113
Yuli Ban

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I saw that theory and I don't fully buy it. Just because life may have started twice on different celestial bodies doesn't mean civilization is doomed. That's like saying "I'm going to die because I saw an ant in my kitchen." 

Besides, there's another theory that says that life can start twice (if not more than that) on the same planet. If we found evidence of XNA tomorrow, would that mean we're doomed too? 

 

Tying the Great Filter to any one particular development in life is playing a poor game. It's possible that life can start multiple times on a world, but in its single-cellular days when you have things like DNA, XNA, PNA, DNA+, DNA++, etc. competing for survival, it's exceedingly easy to wipe out and the first life form to make it to multicellular development is destined to win out even if the others manage to survive. It's possible that multicellular life evolved hundreds of millions of years prior to the Cambrian Explosion but these branches were all dead-ends due to some inefficiency or cosmic event. It's possible that sapient humanoids were a fluke of history. A lot of things had to go perfectly right for us, and almost all of our genus died out anyway. Maybe we are our own Great Filter. My silent belief has been that the 20th century was the closest thing to the Great Filter for us. Things almost went stupendously wrong for us all. 

Here are some of the ways the 20th century could have ended with our destruction:

 

  • No environmentalism. We used to have this belief that Earth's resources were infinite, that animals didn't go extinct, and that there was no need to worry about what we were doing to the planet because God would never allow us to destroy it before the Last Judgement. If we persisted with this belief, the planet would be a toxic hellhole right now. There wouldn't be much in the way of food due to us not caring about animals and plants and, thus, overfarming to the point of rendering the stuff we need the most extinct.
  • Related to that, Thomas Midgley Jr. nearly poisoned the planet to death by aggressively lobbying for leaded gasoline and CFCs. You wonder why people might be a bit loony nowadays? Midgley's idea to put lead in the gasoline we use. That persisted for sixty years. It's said he had more impact on the atmosphere than any other single organism in Earth's history.
  • Nuclear war. Just... nuclear war in general. And there were multiple points when things could've gone wrong. The moment we unveiled them, it could have gone wrong because we almost decided to invade the Soviet Union. If we did that, we'd have used nuclear weapons without coming to respect them, the Soviets would have developed their own, and we'd have had constant nuclear bombardment with these old dirty superbombs, which would have slowly but surely destroyed the industrial and agricultural potential of the entire Northern Hemisphere and sent humanity back 10,000 years.

It's unreal to think we actually survived that century. The 21st century is still harrowing, but not quite as so because we are so much more aware of these things than we were a hundred years ago. If we still lived like it were 1918, we'd not see any problem with using nuclear weapons regularly and no one would believe climate change and environmental degredation at all due to God not allowing it or we would think about capitalizing upon it. So you know, like if the far right had its way across the entire planet.


And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.


#114
zEVerzan

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I also don't fully buy that theory either. Life elsewhere in our solar system doesn't mean that life is so common in our Universe as to spring up anywhere independently, could just mean that bacterium-bearing chunks of rock got blasted off of Earth (or Mars), landed elsewhere and bore fruit in the form of an alien ecosystem.

 

For anyone else curious, here's the video I was referring to that explains the concept further in-depth but take it with a grain of salt.


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#115
Vivian

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Yeah, I think there are many not so great filters , not just one great filter. We can say whats likely to be the biggest filter by looking to how much time it took to arrive at that step :
 
step 1: beggining of life- around 500 milions years after earth formation , or around 200 milions years after conditions to life.
 
step 2 : eucariontes - around 2 bilions years after the beggining of life
 
step 3 : multicelular life - around 1 bilion years after eucariontes
 
step 4: inteligent life capable of leaving the planet - around 800 milions of years after multicelular life.
 
So, step 1 is actually the easiest step once there are conditions for life. Eucariontes formation( step 2) is likely the hardest step, it took more time , and might take much more time on average, so much time that almost all life ends before overcoming this step.

 

Some scientists have alread taken this into account, but for some reason, most scientists still points beggining of life as the hardest step. Well, finding bacteria like life in other planets/moons , with no sigh of eucarionte like life, might actually be good, specially if this bacteria like life was around for 4 bilions years. This would exclude beggining of life as great filter, but this was the less possible cadidate anyway, and would reassure eucarionte like life as the bigger filter. The worst possible scenario would be finding inteligent life that lives like caveman. The video pointed finding ruins of a civilization as worse, but I dont think so because with the ruins of an alien civilization we can know what the filter that is ahead of us is, and try to avoid it. Primitive inteligent life in our solar sistem or in nearby star sistem would exclude almost all filters behind us and give no clue of what the filter ahead us is.


#116
zEVerzan

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The worst possible scenario would be finding inteligent life that lives like caveman. The video pointed finding ruins of a civilization as worse, but I dont think so because with the ruins of an alien civilization we can know what the filter that is ahead of us is, and try to avoid it. Primitive inteligent life in our solar sistem or in nearby star sistem would exclude almost all filters behind us and give no clue of what the filter ahead us is.

This a fairly good point, stumbling upon the ruins of an extinct alien civilization might lead us to avoid a filter ahead of us - but!!! Do you expect people to all see eye-to-eye on the best course of action for avoiding the filter? What if the ruins lack sufficient evidence for what caused that destruction, and the cause of their extinction becomes the source of great controversy? There's no way a discovery like that wouldn't be heavily politicized, it may even come to encompass all of future politics in general. And this causes us to dicker about on borrowed time.

I can see it now: "dependence on technology caused the aliens' destruction! Avoid technology at all costs!" "Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism kills! UBI is the only way!" "The alien empire became too degenerate to survive! Eugenics is the only answer!" "The aliens in their arrogance turned their backs on God! Look upon their works ye mighty and despair!"

Maybe the act of discovering alien ruins is what starts a civilization on a path toward self-annihilation. I'd believe it...
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#117
Vivian

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Yeah, but Ruins of a civilization would give us at least some clues for what the filter is, while caveman like life would give no clue at all, and people would still discuss what is killing civilizations. 

 

It all depends on what the great filter is and what clues it might give. Some of them could be quite obvious :

 

- robots everywhere and things or beings that appear to have been destroyed by robots( we can alread say what kind of dinosaur killed another, so telling if robots killed everyone and run out of energy  might not be that difficult). In that case, stop improoving AI.

 

 - high radiation and signs of explosions would point to nuclear explosion, so, we would have to get rid of nuclear stuff now, or at least, think much more before throwing a nuclear  bomb.

 

 

some kinds of great filters wouldnt even leave ruins behind, like a black hole created by a machine  that swallowed the entire stellar system, or an atempt to travel faster than light that leaded to time travel and destruction of their ancestors.



#118
zEVerzan

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Oh, that's easy. Just write off the officially accepted scientific consensus as an evil government conspiracy and fill in the blanks with your own agenda.

 

You compare piecing through the ruins of an interstellar civilization to the dinosaurs, but the key difference is that "whatever killed off the more advanced, maybe interstellar civilization" has a more personal and apocalyptic relevance to us and our future than "whatever killed off the big smelly lizards 65 million years ago". Also, despite all the evidence there are so many people who don't believe dinosaurs actually existed and that the moon landing was faked.

 

My point is that a big part of the population would go completely hysterical and frantically search for their own meaning to affirm their biases.


I always imagined the future as a time of more reason, empathy, and peace, not less. It's time for a change.
Attention is currency in the "free marketplace of ideas".
I do other stuff besides gripe about the future! Twitter Youtube DeviantArt +-PATREON-+





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Fermi Paradox, Aliens, Extraterrestrials, Life

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